Winter Wheat Conditions Decline
Mar 18, 2014
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 18, 2014 at 4:30 am.
Grain futures are higher on concerns about increasing tension between Ukraine and Russia. Crop conditions declining in major wheat growing states in the US is also providing support. Old crop soybean usage continues to provide support to old crop/new crop spreads.
USDA’s Situation Paper on Ukraine last week suggested everything is alright. Yesterday an analyst group in Ukraine stated that it expects as much as 20% of land may not get planted because of lack of funding for inputs.
Hard Red Winter Wheat ratings dropped in KS, OK, and TX. Dry soil conditions and cold temperatures caused TX good/excellent to drop from 28% to 13%.
Rich Nelson, Allendale’s Chief Strategist says the recent rally has added $86.00 per acre for corn and $52.00 per acre for soybeans. Can this change the planted acreage estimate by USDA on March 31st?
Rich gave us the price projections based on Allendale’s Planting Survey results at the weekly broker meeting. You can listen in by clicking here. Take a one week free trial of the site to view.
NOPA Crush data put year to date crush at .04% higher than last year when USDA’s target is an increase of .01% increase.
Clearing the Argentinian port of the ship blocking soybean shipments is likely to take until Wednesday. Dock workers are threatening to go on strike later this month if the pay raise is not met.
Farmer selling has come to a standstill as basis held steady in most areas. Gulf demand showed some weakness late on Monday.
FOMC meeting results will be released tomorrow. The macro market is waiting for the release of the CPI, Housing Starts and Real Earnings at 7:30 this morning.
Total supplies of beef, pork and poultry in 2014 are the lowest since 1991. Packers are reducing chain time at many cattle and hog plants this week. Pork cutout values were up 2.13. Beef cutout values were mixed with choice up 2.41 and select down .44. The CME Feeder index is 173.73.
Markets as of 4:30 AM
- May Corn +3
- May Beans +9
- May Wheat +4 1/4
- Apr Cattle +,22
- Apr Hogs +1.30
- Jun Dlr +.04
- Jun S&P -3.75
- Apr Crude +.27
- Apr Gold -8.80
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