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The Grain Report

RSS By: Sean Lusk, AgWeb.com

Market updates from Walsh Trading.

DAN BURKE'S DAILY OPTION RUN 09/04/13

Sep 04, 2013

DAN BURKE'S DAILY OPTION RUN 09/04/13

GRAINS

MACRO OUTLOOK:  As I have been saying for a few weeks now, the market will be making a turn to the downside as the weather becomes less hot and dry.  Recently, prices have moved upward aggressively because of the heat dome that appeared suddenly.  Now that the grains can move past yesterdays crop report without any hiccups, I believe the weather is again the biggest underlying current to new price action.  If we take a calm approach at the way the heat dome got factored into the prices, it is time to take that out and get back to those wonderful conditions we first experience early in production.  Now that the markets are engaged to the downside, the next question becomes more about where the trade goes from here.  If you are interested in protecting your downside of grains, we would be happy to discuss our proprietary support levels. However, keep in mind that we are as vigilant with our protective strategies for the upside. Please feel free to give us a call anytime.  Keep in mind, commissions and fees are not included in the cost of the option.

SOYBEAN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

OCT '13

NOV '13

JAN '14

MAR '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1250P

3.4

175.0

1200P

6.4

325.0

1140P

7.4

375.0

1100P

4.4

225.0

1220P

1.7

93.75

1180P

5.0

250.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

1200P

1.2

 62.50

1100P

1.7

93.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

OCT '13

NOV '13

JAN '14

MAR '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1500C

2.3

306.25

1600C

4.0

200.0

1700C

5.4

275

1680C

6.2

312.50

1550C

1.0

50.0

1620C

3.2

162.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

1600C

.3

18.75

1650C

2.3

118.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CORN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

OCT '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

JUL '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

460P

8.3

418.75

435P

9.3

468.75

410P

7.5

381.25

400P

8.4

425.0

440P

3.1

156.25

420P

5.7

293.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

420P

1.0

50

400P

3.0

150.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

OCT '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

JUL '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

500C

3.3

168.75

535C

5.2

262.5

630C

3.5

181.25

700C

4.4

225.0

510C

2.1

106.25

550C

3.6

187.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

520C

1.3

68.75

560C

3.0

150.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WHEAT HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

OCT '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

JUL '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

630P

5.5

281.25

605P

9.1

456.25

550P

4.4

225.0

550P

11.5

593.75

620P

3.1

156.25

590P

5.6

287.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

615P

2.3

118.75

580P

4.1

206.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

OCT '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

JUL '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

680C

2.6

137.5

720C

7.0

350

810C

6.7

343.75

850C

9.6

487.50

690C

1.5

81.25

730C

5.7

293.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

700C

1.0

50.0

750C

4.1

206.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING.  THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT.  WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS.

Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of Walsh Trading Inc. or its staff.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Walsh Trading Inc. Copyright © Walsh Trading Inc.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Support refers to an area on a chart where buy orders may be clustered. Resistance is an area where there may be sell orders.  Fibonacci retracement is named after a 12th century Italian mathematician and based on the theory that prices rise or fall by predictable amounts after reaching a high or low.

 

For more market information, Dan can be reached at 312.957.8248 or via e-mail at dburke@walshtrading.com.

Stay Green!  Go Paperless and fill out this online application in order to trade Futures and Options------https://accountforms.rcgdirect.com/

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