Aug 28, 2014
Home| Tools| Events| Blogs| Discussions| Sign UpLogin


The Ted Spread

RSS By: Ted Seifried, AgWeb.com

Ted is the Chief Market Strategist and Vice President in charge of the Zaner Ag Hedge Group and specializes in agricultural hedging employing various strategies using futures, futures spreads, outright options and option combinations. He believes it is paramount to be able to use different strategies to adapt to market conditions. Ted works with large to mid size grain and livestock producers and end users in North, Central and South America.

Corn Finds Tech Support, Help from China

Apr 19, 2012

TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.   

 

Corn finds tech support, help from China

Both old crop and new crop corn contracts were aimed at testing major support levels after yesterday's close.  May corn had touched the $6.00 per bushel mark and closed just a few cent off it, December corn had touched $5.25 per bushel for the third day in a row.  Thursday's trade brought a reversal off the recent lows fueled by rumors of China poking around to buy some old crop corn.  The old crop balance sheet is tight enough that any major China purchases could cause the need for price rationing.  The initial strength driven by the China news was enough to bring in bottom picking activities as well as short covering as the timing of good news could not have been better.  Funds were noted buyers of approximately 12,000 contracts.  This sort of fund buying is usually technical in nature.

With this reversal off the lows it is possible that we could have a double bottom formation in May corn at $6.00, as well as in December corn at $5.20.  From a technical perspective this could be the base for which a multi-week rally could build from.  However, from a fundamental perspective it would really seem that although old crop corn could see the need for price rationing and therefore higher prices, it is difficult to build a case for an extended new crop corn rally with massive acreage and a record fast start to planting.

See May Corn Daily chart:

See December Corn Daily chart:

 

This means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to make sure they lock up prices that makes sense for their bottom line.  Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent.

Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs.

Be safe!

Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Please check out my Blog at: http://tedseifriedfutures.com/

Additional charts, studies, and more of my commentary can be found at: http://markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?rid=Seifried

Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed. The limited risk characteristic of options refers to long options only; and refers to the amount of the loss, which is defined as premium paid on the option(s) plus commissions.

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE-MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION'S STRIKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE'S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT, OPTION PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A FRACTION OF THE PRICE MOVE IN THE UNDERLYING FUTURES. IN SOME CASES, THE OPTION MAY NOT MOVE AT ALL OR EVEN MOVE IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION

Log In or Sign Up to comment

COMMENTS

No comments have been posted, be the first one to comment.

Hot Links & Cool Tools

    •  
    •  
    •  
    •  
    •  
    •  

facebook twitter youtube View More>>
 
 
 
 
The Home Page of Agriculture
© 2014 Farm Journal, Inc. All Rights Reserved|Web site design and development by AmericanEagle.com|Site Map|Privacy Policy|Terms & Conditions