Good afternoon. It was a choppy two sided trade in the complex today until 1:00 hit. November beans surged higher near the close and the buying then spilled over into the grains. New crop November beans finished at 1381, up 19 cents for the day. July beans settled at 1505 ½ up 12 cents. Overnight, the bean complex was pressured by the fact there were 752 deliveries against May soybeans. Traders were expecting few or no deliveries. There was another sale of 220,000 tonnes of US beans to China for the 2011/12 season. The weekend Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed Non-Commercial traders were net long a record high 247,932 contracts, an increase of 3,774 for the week. Both soybeans and meal are showing a positive buying trend but have reached overbought status. Soybean plantings came in at 12% planted which was exactly what the trade was looking for.   Once these funds decide to start selling beans, be prepared for a sharp break in beans. I would strongly urge producers of beans to have some sort of protection in place through option strategies to protect your investment and a tremendous amount of revenue.

Good afternoon. It was a relatively quiet, mixed trade in the complex today. July wheat finished up 9 at 635 ½ on good export sales and continued uncertainties in weather forecasts for the weekend and early next week. Temperatures in northern Texas wheat areas were well above 100 degrees and this had traders concerned for yield losses.  However, traders see a very large US crop if the crops can get through the next few weeks without anymore weather scares. Export sales came in at 386,700 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 357,300 for the next marketing year for a total of 744,000. The trade was looking for wheat sales to come in between 400-600. July corn finished at 607 ½, up 6 ½ cents while the new crop contract finished down 3 cents at 535. A firm basis market at the gulf and talk that the offers were pulled for delivery in the next few months due to a lack of producer selling helped support old crop corn. Also, ideas of little or no deliveries for first notice day for May corn (up 13 cents for the day) has helped to provide underlying support to the old crop corn. New crop December corn continues to lag behind on talk of active planting in Iowa and ideas that the crop will get off to a fast start this year. Old crop beans had a choppy two sided trade ending the day up 4 ¼ at 1480 ¼. New crop November beans was lower the whole day and finished the day down 11 ¾ at 1358 ¾. Soybean sales were solid coming in at a little over 1.4 million metric tonnes for both old and new crop. The trade was looking for sales to come in between 900-1.25 million. Old crop bean sales came in at 926,000 which helped support July beans early in the session. New crop beans took out most of their gains from yesterday as traders see recent action in soybeans have attracted more beans to be planted from cotton and other grains. All in all, there’s still good revenue on the table, especially in soybeans, to protect at these price levels.

Good afternoon. I mentioned yesterday that the bean market is going to be volatile in the near term. After yesterdays lower close, the soy complex came roaring back with July beans making new contract highs and finishing at 1465, up 24 cents. New crop November beans finished up 10 ½ at 1352. July beans are up almost 62 cents from last week’s lows. Continued talk of a smaller South America crop from key forecasters and concerns that Argentina could slow the crush pace ahead helped support the strong gains in beans and meal today. Also, there was news of potential frost damage to the Bueros Aires region in Argentina last night and talk that meal offers from Argentina for August and beyond are difficult to come by. May meal settled at 412.10 up 12.30, which is the highest level nearby meal has been since 2009.

Good afternoon. The grains rebounded from Friday’s down day while the soy complex came back to earth after Friday’s surge to the highest level since early September. July wheat finished at 632 ½ which was up 9 ½ cents for the day. Talk that the sell-off in wheat last week was a bit overdone plus increased concerns for cold weather damage in the eastern Corn Belt this week helped to support the wheat today. July corn finished up 9 ½ at 612 ½ and new crop December corn was up 8 ¾ at 545 ½. Continued talk that China is in the process of booking corn from the U.S, plus a lack of new selling interest even with the bearish influence from outside markets today supported corn. While the temperature outlook is cooler than desired for the week, there is only a limited amount of rain expected across the Midwest and planting is expected to be active. Traders see weekly crop progress for corn plantings this afternoon between 32%-36%. The weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed an active long liquidation selling trend from speculators and traders viewed the market as oversold.

Good afternoon. Instead of a “turnaround” Tuesday, the trade witnessed a “turnaround” Thursday as grains were higher overnight on rumors that China was looking to buy old crop corn. It seems whenever corn gets near that $6.00 level rumors start to swirl at the CME that China is in the market to buy corn. The surge in the corn market spilled over into wheat and soybeans. July Wheat finished at 630 up 14 ¼ as the surge in corn plus talk that funds hold a near record net short position in wheat sparked aggressive short-covering. July corn closed at 612 up 18 cents on the day while new crop December came to life too and finished at 541 ¾, up 13 cents for the day. Funds bought an estimated 15,000 contracts of corn on the rumor of Chinese buying. Wheat and corn were also supported on talk of some light weather concerns with forecasters saying temps could dip into the 30’s this weekend into Illinois but it doesn’t look like the cool temps are going to be move far enough south into the central and eastern corn belt to cause damage. After this weekend, the forecast is for warmer temperatures and ideal planting conditions. An interesting report from the University of Illinois came out yesterday that said, “Corn planting in 2012 will reach 50% completion date earlier than any other year since 1960 in Illinois and perhaps in Indiana as well. While Iowa is not likely to set a record early date, it is likely that Iowa will reach 50% complete well before its trend date. The main market implication is that a smaller than average percentage of the US corn crop is likely to be planted late (after May 20th) and incur the yield penalty associated with late plantings. As indicated in our post of March 23rd, a smaller than average portion of the crop planted late supports the expectation for the 2012 corn yield to be about two bushels above trend if there are no other offsetting factors later in the season.” Of course, we don’t know what Mother Nature has in store for the Midwest in the next 2-3 months so we don’t know if the yield trend is going to be higher. However, the previous seven earliest planted corn crops, of which this year is likely to be included, have all been at or better than trend. 

Good afternoon. The trade saw some volatility in the complex today. May corn opened up only 1 ¼ cents lower but quickly turned south as traders and spread traders liquidated their old crop corn longs and also old/new crop spreads which helped spark heavy selling in the May and July contracts. The July/Dec. spread finished at 65 ¼, its lowest close since January 20th. May corn finished down 15 at 601 ¾ and new crop December was a penny lower at 528 ¾. The weekly Corn Planting report showed that 17% of the crop is planted compared to 7% last week. The trade had expected planting to range from 17-21%. The highest percent complete prior to this year was 14% in 2004. Illinois was 41% complete as compared with 6% as the 5-year average. This is the 2nd highest planting percentage for this date since 1985, the last year the Chicago Bears won a Super Bowl. The only year higher was 2010 at 19%. Weather forecasts for the Midwest this weekend are cool/dry after some light rain to finish the week out, followed by warmer/drier weather next week and then turning warm/wet in the extended 11-15 day timeframe. If this does unfold like forecasted, this is ideal for corn planting for much of the U.S. Don’t be surprised to see the USDA raise its 164 bpa trend yield used in their Outlook Forum in their May S&D report if this scenario with the weather plays out. 

Good afternoon. The grain and soy markets ended the day all in the red after much needed weekend rains across the Corn Belt and eastern Plains helped improve soil moistures. Everybody knows the saying “rain makes grain.” The 6-10 day outlook in the Midwest mostly calls for below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures so there could be a record or near record plantings pace by the end of the month. The USDA will delay issuing its crop progress report until Tuesday due to a server outage after a small electrical fire today. The trade is looking for 18%-24% of U.S corn to be planted vs. 7% last week and 6% average. Initial soybean plantings are expected to come in around 2%-5%.

Good afternoon. Grain and soy futures opened the day higher and stayed in the green throughout the day with outside markets supporting them. May wheat finished up 11 ¼ at 639 ¼ on continued fears that the overnight temperatures were cold enough to cause some damage in the eastern and southern Corn Belt. May corn finished up a penny and a half at 637 ½ and new crop was unchanged at 546 ¾. Old crop corn was up 8 ½ cents in the first hour of the trade because of strong export sales. Net weekly export sales for corn came in at 959,100 metric tonnes for the current marketing year. The trade was looking for sales to come in between 400-800 metric tonnes. New crop corn didn’t move much on the day as traders see a good rain event for the Midwest into early next week and then a drier trend for later next week, which appears ideal to help the early planted corn emerge, and also to see more active new plantings into next weekend. After closing 3 sessions in a row lower, the soybeans were the big winner today. May beans finished up 19 cents at 1441 and new crop November beans were up 13 ¾ at 1372 ¾ on solid export news and help with the lower dollar. Net weekly export sales came in at 460,100 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 176,300 for the next marketing year for a total of 636,400. As of April 5th, cumulative beans sales stand at 91.7% of the USDA forecast for the 2011/12 marketing year. Also, on top of the strong weekly sales, private exporters reported daily sales of 189,000 tonnes to an unknown destination. In addition, sales were reported for 115,000 tonnes of U.S beans to China. Uncertainty about the final size of the drought-stricken crops in Brazil and Argentina could still send prices higher, as could concerns the bean prices need to be higher to attract more US farmers to plant soy. I think most farmers have already decided on what they’re going to plant and my guess would be corn. 

Good afternoon. The grains closed mixed after a quieter day compared to yesterday’s late day sell off. The outside markets were positive today since the Euro zone was on the back burner of any news headlines.  May wheat finished the day up 2 ¼ at 628. Wheat was up 8 cents overnight as cold weather across the southern Corn Belt had traders worried about any crop damage. The 7-10 day forecast has warmer temperatures in the Corn Belt but it’s way too early to say we’re in the clear. May corn didn’t have the aggressive long liquidation selling like the trade witnessed yesterday after the USDA left its domestic corn stockpile projection for the end of the marketing year unchanged at 801 million bushels. The decision not to cut corn supply estimates might mean there isn’t a need to keep pushing prices to ration demand. May corn finished up 1 ¼ at 636 and new crop was up 3 ¼ at 546 ¾ for the day. If the forecasted rains fall across the Midwest over the next 6-10 days, it might have a negative effect on prices as it has gotten quite dry in a large portion of the Midwest. 

Good afternoon. We saw some volatility in the grains today after the USDA came out with their monthly WASDE tables. Most market watchers expected the USDA to cut its corn carryout but instead the USDA left corn ending stocks unchanged at 801 million bushels. A drop in ending stocks in the area of 717 million bushels was expected, in part, because of strong U.S corn export sales last week and due to the lower than expected March 1st stocks report.   The USDA did take the unusual step of acknowledging that early spring corn planting and abundant wheat supplies should help keep corn supplies falling to dangerously low levels this summer. The USDA stated that, “The quick start to corn plantings this spring and more intended acres across the South raise the possibility that much of this year’s crop will be harvested early, before August 31st.” May corn finished down 14 ¼ at 634 ¾ while new crop corn was down 6 ¾ for the day.

Good afternoon. The grain complex experienced a choppy two-sided trade during the day session after trading higher in the overnight trade but falling apart in the middle of the night. May corn finished at 649, down 9 1/4 while new crop December corn closed unchanged. Unwinding of old/new crop corn spreads throughout the day weighed on old crop corn. May soybeans finished down 3 at 1431 and new crop November beans was up a ½ cent at 1382. Traders liquidated long holdings in corn and beans amid worries of possible bearish surprises in the WASDE report tomorrow morning. Wheat turned up a few cents closing up 4 ½ cents at 643 on position squaring before the report. U.S corn supplies in the report are expected to fall to a 16-year low creating razor-thin supplies before the fall harvest. Here are the following tables for grain and bean carryouts:

Good afternoon. Chicago wheat was the big seller of the day and weighed on corn and beans, too. May wheat finished down 18 3/4 at 639 1/4 as continued talk of favorable weather in U.S and rain in the forecast for parts of Europe pressured the market.   May corn finished down 1 ½ at 656 ¾ and new crop finished down 1 ¼ at 544 ¼. Old crop corn was supported earlier in the session on continued talk of the lack of producer selling and strong cash basis levels but eventually the higher dollar and the weakness in wheat weighed on corn.   The bean complex had a choppy two sided trade with May beans finishing up 2 ¾ at 1419 ½ and new crop November beans was down 3 ¼ at 1375 ½. The private analytical firm Informa Economics cut its outlook for Brazil and Argentina soybean harvests. They cut its estimate for Brazil’s soybean crop to 66.5 million tons from its previous estimate of 68 million tons. Informa also cut its forecast for Argentina’s soybean output by 2.5 million tons from last month to 45 million. For corn, Informa kept Brazil production unchanged at 62 million tons and cut Argentina production 0.5 million tons to 22 million. Argentina is the world’s second-largest corn exporter.   The USDA is scheduled to release its updated figures next Tuesday, April 10th. All in all, all eyes are on the weather now and the 10 day model looks favorable for early corn plantings which should keep new crop corn prices in check. However, it seems Mother Nature always has something up her sleeve. Tomorrow is the last trading day for the week since we’re closed for Good Friday so I expect a choppy two sided trade as traders position themselves for a 3 day weekend.

Good afternoon. Wheat and beans had a choppy two sided trade today while corn continued to stray higher. May wheat finished the day up a penny at 658 after opening the session 6 ¼ lower. Rains in the plains overnight and ideas that the crop may continue to improve helped to spark the early selling pressures. There was talk today of an early wheat harvest leading to a few double crop bean acres. May corn finished the day up 3 ¼ at 658 ¼ and new crop December continues to lag behind ending up a ½ cent at 545 ½. Old crop corn was notably higher during the session on talk of tight holding from producers and limited supply going into late spring, however, sellers emerged into the close as the U.S dollar surged after the release of the Federal Reserve minutes from their policy meeting in March. Also, more fund buying in corn helped push it higher earlier in the session. May soybeans finished down 4 ¼ and new crop November finished down 6 ½ at 1378 ¾. November beans soared to a high of $13.97 but couldn’t break through that $14.00 resistance level. After the early rally pushed the bean market to its highest level since September 12th, sellers came out to take profits once the dollar soared. I still feel that November beans need to get past that $14.00 barrier in order win back any undecided acres out there. Informa will be out tomorrow morning with their world production estimates.  We have a short trading week with Good Friday coming up and don’t forget the USDA monthly Supply/Demand report next Tuesday.

Give us a call at 800.993.5449 to hear what we’re doing to protect our producers or email us at info@walshtrading.com.

Good afternoon.   Except for wheat; corn and beans saw follow thru buying from Friday’s reports. May Wheat rallied 8 cents on the close to finish only down 3 ¼ cents at 657. The lack of freezing temps in the plains for the 2 week outlook and more rain across the central and southern plains for the middle of the week helped pressure the wheat market most of the day. May corn was up 11 at 655 and new crop December corn finished up 4 ¾ at 545. Continued buying from Friday’s bullish March 1 Stocks report helped push old crop corn to its highest level since the last Grain Stocks report on January 12th. New crop December corn saw some late day buying but with the largest acreage number since 1937 and the 2 week weather forecast looking ideal for planting corn, the old crop/new crop spread is up almost 30 cents higher since the report. Don’t forget the Prospective Plantings survey is from March 1st and the Midwest warm up wasn’t under way yet, so this acreage number might even go higher. However, let’s keep in mind, soybeans rallied more than $2.00/bushel from December into March 1 in order to secure more acres but producers didn’t bite.   Undecided producers might be biting soon with May beans finishing up 18 at 1421 and new crop November beans up 27 ¼ at 1385 1/4. The bean market is doing everything it can to entice these undecided producers to plant beans. Both new crop corn and new crop beans are offering producers great opportunities to hedge their crops through option strategies.