Grain prices were pretty much even this week and analysts were waiting for Friday’s December Supply & Demand reports to provide market-moving news. But, overall it was pretty quiet.
“I think for the most part this report didn’t tell us anything we didn’t know,” says Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group.
Here are highlights from the report:
Corn: USDA raised its corn carryover projection 5 million bushels from last November. On usage, USDA cut 5 million bu. from projected food, seed and industrial use, to 6.405 billion bushels.
USDA now projects a national average on-farm cash price of $5.90 to $6.90 -- down 30 cents on both ends of the range from last month.
Soybeans: USDA increased its 2011-12 soybean carryover projection by 35 million bushels from last month, and cut 25 million bushels from projected exports, which now stand at 1.30 billion bushels. USDA also cut 10 million bushels from projected crush, to 1.625 billion bushels.
A national average on-farm cash price of $10.70 to $12.70 -- down 90 cents on both ends of the range from November, was projected by USDA.
Wheat: USDA increased its wheat carryover forecast by 50 million bushels from last November, and is now seen at 925 million bushels. USDA now projects an average on-farm cash price of $7.05 to $7.55, steady on the bottom end of the range and down 20 cents on the top end.
Listen to Gulke's audio analysis:
Gulke says the raise in corn carryout is an insignificant amount. But, it did cause the corn markets to be lower at Friday’s close, yet still above $5.80. “All in all it was a do-nothing week for corn.”
The surprise was in soybeans. “We knew exports were going to fall, so it wasn’t really a surprise,” he says. “It was the biggest negative news.”
Market Waiting for January
Gulke says now the market will turn it’s attend to the next major USDA report, which will come out on Jan. 12. “They’ll have a better handle of it by then,” he says. “I suspect that one will show more corn usage than what we have in there now.”
He says that even though today was a ho-hum USDA report, continue watching market factors and be prepared for Jan. 12. “That report has the tendency to be a market-mover.”
