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Pro Farmer 2013 Corn, Soybean Crop Estimates

August 23, 2013
 
 

 

Pro Farmer pegs 2013 U.S. corn crop at 13.46 billion bu.; Average yield of 154.1 bu. per acre
+/- 1% = 13.595 billion bu. to 13.325 billion bu.; 155.6 bu. to 152.6 bu. per acre

Pro Farmer pegs 2013 U.S. soybean crop at 3.158 billion bu.; Average yield of 41.8 bu. per acre
+/- 2% = 3.221 billion bu. to 3.095 billion bu.; 42.6 bu. to 41.0 bu. per acre

Note: These estimates are based on assumptions for normal weather through September, which would be about perfect for the crops. We took 1.8 million off of harvested acres for corn and 800,000 harvested acres off of soybeans to reflect the Prevented Plant acres in Iowa and Minnesota. It’s dicey estimating crops in a year with so many challenges. We have two opportunities to be wrong with our estimates — we’ve made adjustments to planted and harvested acreage and have issued state-by-state yield pegs.

Listen in as the Pro Farmer editors explain their estimates on AgriTalk:

CORN

Ohio: 168 bu. per acre. No question, Ohio was the best looking corn crop on the eastern leg. The question is how much of the yield potential can be maintained into harvest. The crop has more downside risk than upside potential due to dry conditions and the late maturity of the crop.

Indiana: 163 bu. per acre. Scouts were impressed by the crop, but to a lesser extent than with Ohio. It needs time and moisture to realize its potential.

Illinois: 164 bu. per acre. One of the "shockers" of this Tour was how dry Illinois soils are. Soil moisture levels are down from 2012. The degree of variability of the crop from field to field and within the fields was also surprising.

Iowa: 163 bu. per acre. Iowa is a prime example of why perspective must be applied to raw Crop Tour data. Samples indicated Iowa has the potential for big yields, but problems with late maturity and major uniformity issues means we don’t expect this to be realized.

Minnesota: 163 bu. per acre. Maturity was an even bigger problem with the Minnesota crop. Samples from just pollinated fields showed 200-plus-bu. potential, but these crops very likely will not make grain. Nitrogen deficiency is another major issue for this crop.

Nebraska: 161 bu. per acre. Dryland corn will support yields in Nebraska this year. But irrigated corn is not overly impressive.

South Dakota: 142 bu. per acre. After finding pitiful yields in the state in 2012, it was refreshing to see impressive yield potential this year. But whether the crop reaches this potential depends on September weather.

 

SOYBEANS

Ohio: 48 bu. per acre. The state is expected to produce a good but not a great crop, though pod abortion is a risk if late-season rains fail to develop and temps heat up. The maturity of the crop was more advanced than many other states and beans were plump.

Indiana: 48 bu. per acre. A few instances of sudden death syndrome (SDS) were noted in the state, but as was the case for most of the Tour, the crop was relatively free of insect and disease pressure.

Illinois: 46 bu. per acre. There was extreme variability in the Illinois crop. Late planting, heavy rains and ponding caused uneveness.

Iowa: 43 bu. per acre. Pod clusters were notably lacking on Iowa bean plants, with many plants having just two to three pods per node. Coupled with late planting dates in north-central and northeast Iowa, the potential for more than that simply isn’t there.

Minnesota: 40 bu. per acre. Everything we said about the Iowa crop applies to Minnesota... plus aphids and even later planting dates.

Nebraska:
46 bu. per acre. Growers in the state know how to grow beans and can produce crops in excess of 50 bu. per acre. Limiting the upside on the state’s bean crop was that irrigated beans didn’t blow the top off yields, as around half the crop was mudded in.

South Dakota: 36 bu. per acre. Immaturity is an issue with this bean crop. Scouts saw a lot of flat pods at the bottom node and the top cluster seemed to be lacking. This signals the crop must make it through September without a frost for a good yield.


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RELATED TOPICS: Corn, Soybeans, PFT

 
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