Farmers can expect market movement for corn prices after the Jan. 11 release of the Annual Production Summary and Quarterly Grain Stocks Report, Pro Farmer senior market analyst Brian Grete says.
"I would say if the corn crop size comes in smaller because of the reduction in harvested acres, the odds are that the Dec. 1 corn stocks will be lighter than anticipated," Grete says.
A total of four reports will be released Friday, but those two reports will have the greatest implications for corn and soybean producers. USDA is expected to cut total harvested corn acres, further constricting an already tight supply, Grete says. If the corn crop comes in smaller than expected, that will have to be offset likely with reductions in exports.
By contrast, USDA is expected to increase its soybean crop estimate, which would allow for an increase in the export projection, likely keeping soybean carryover fairly steady. In both cases, market numbers argue those adjustments are needed.
Quarterly grain stocks on the corn side remain the wild card, Grete says. Those numbers–-which represent total bushels held on farms and off-farm–-have been a market mover for the past two years, and there have been major surprises, Grete says. The figures will set the tone for corn prices through winter until mid-March, when focus shifts to planting intentions for this year.
Regardless of what the numbers actually say, the volume of data set to be released Friday means someone will be surprised.
"There will be a shocker number in there somewhere, whether it’s bullish or bearish," Grete says.
New Information on the Horizon
Here's what you need to know going into the Jan. 11 reports. Read AgWeb's Pre-Report Analysis, News of Jan. 11 Reports.