Is 2 to 3 million acres of Corn lost this year a big deal?
Apr 24, 2013
There is no question that corn yield potential declines with delayed planting AFTER optimal dates pass due to a number of factors, including: a shorter growing season, greater insect & disease pressure, and higher risk of hot, dry conditions during pollination. BUT simply stated we are not yet at that point! Certainly some acres to the north will be lost to flooding and late planting (maybe as many as 2-3 million), but a rebound in yield out of Iowa and Illinois will do much more to than just offset those losses. Consider the facts below:
- Iowa's yield last year was reported at just 137 bushels per acre. The states highest yield ever came in 2009 at 182 bushels per acre. Producers generally plant close to 14 million acres and harvest just over 13 million.
- Illinois yield last year was reported at just 105 bushels per acre. The states highest yield ever came in 2008 at 179 bushels per acre. Producers generally plant just under 13 million acres and will harvest just under 12.5 million.
- North Dakota producers intend to plant 4.10 million acres, up 14% from last year. Yields last year were reported at 122 bushels per acre with the states highest ever being in 2010 at 132 bushels per acre.
Point is 2-3 million acres loss up in areas like North & South Dakota, where yields at best will average 135 bushels per acre, amounts to a reduction of between 200 to 400 million bushels. Throw in some areas in Minnesota and Nebraska and maybe you push closer to a 500-600 million bushel loss. But if yields in Iowa and Illinois snap back to any extent it dwarf's these losses. A rebound in Illinois yields to just the 150 level on 12.5 million harvested acres amounts to a production increase of 1.875 BILLION bushels. A 160 type yield out of Illinois will generate more than 2.0 billion in supply. Same scenario in Iowa, a jump in yields back to just 155 bushels per acre on 13 million harvested will generate 2.015 billion bushels. Now you can see why the big players in the trade are giving more attention to the replenishing of soil moisture levels in Iowa and Illinois opposed to the flooding threats, delayed planting to the North and thoughts they may lose 1-3 million of their corn acres. For a risk free 30 day trial to my daily thoughts CLICK HERE.