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April 2013 Archive for Grain Hedge

RSS By: Brock Schimbeno, AgWeb.com

Grain Hedge is a self-directed discount brokerage that saves farmers money when trading in the futures and options market. For $7 commissions per side producers can execute their marketing strategy with authority, any time the markets trade.

Corn/Beans Slide as Wheat Continues Higher

Apr 30, 2013

Corn lost some ground today after yesterday's limit move. Cody and Logan discuss the technicals of this corn market and what are some important price levels to watch. Wheat found fundamental strength from KC wheat tour results, and day 1 results are discussed. Tune in for the full report!

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS.
FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Corn Planting at 5% Complete -- Will DEC Futures Rally?

Apr 29, 2013

The weekly crop progress showed corn planting at 5% complete compared to 49% last year and 31% for the 5-year average. Winter wheat slid further down to 33% on the good-to-excellent rating. Export inspections continued in their patter with wheat exceeding expectations, soybeans at the high end of expectations, and corn within expectations. Later this week, we get ethanol production and export sales. Tune in for the full report!

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS.
FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Updated KC Wheat Projections After Last Week's Cold Snap

Apr 27, 2013

Today we look at some KC Wheat yield projections from Planalytics after last week's cold snap damaged much of the crop. Cody takes a look at US cash grain basis after major flooding delayed old crop grain movements. Tune in for the full report!

grain hedge topper

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS.
FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Soybeans Bounce On Technicals, How Much Upside?

Apr 25, 2013

Grains had a strong day across the board today. Fundamentally we have a lot of demand side concerns for old crop and supply concerns moving new group. Brock and Cody discuss the technical landscape and how much upside this market has. Want live quotes at your home or office? Visit us at GrainHedge.com to take your no-obligation demo of the trading platform used on GrainTV.

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Ethanol Production Upticks, Lanworth Revises Production Estimates

Apr 24, 2013

Another mixed trade in Chicago. Soybeans were the leader to the downside, but corn did see some technical support. Corn and soybean technical landscapes are examined. EIA ethanol production and stocks numbers are discussed, as is, Lanworth's production estimates for the coming harvest. Export sales are released tomorrow. Want live quotes at your home or office? Visit us at GrainHedge.com to take your no-obligation demo of the trading platform used on GrainTV.

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Weather Forecasts Look Drier Pushing New Crop Lower

Apr 23, 2013

Trade was mostly driven by better weather prospects for later this week and into early next week. This should help planting progress leading to some of the premium being taken out of the market today. July corn is looking technically weak after today's action. Tomorrow we receive the EIA ethanol numbers. Want live quotes at your home or office? Visit us at GrainHedge.com to take your no-obligation demo of the trading platform used on GrainTV.

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Corn Planting at 4% Complete -- Is This a Cause for Alarm?

Apr 22, 2013

On today's show, Brock and Logan discuss the Crop Progress report released just prior to filming. The corn planting pace only advanced 2% over the last week, but better weather is expected later this week. Export inspections are also discussed. Want live quotes at your home or office? Visit us at GrainHedge.com to take your no-obligation demo of the trading platform used on GrainTV. Have a great weekend.

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

CoF, Planting Delays, and Cold Temps All Moving The Grains

Apr 19, 2013

Another mixed day for the grain complex rounded out the week. Cody and Logan discuss today's Cattle on Feed report, planting delays in the eastern corn belt, and cold weather across the southern plains. Tune in for these stories and a technical breakdown of the May corn chart. Want live quotes at your home or office? Visit us at GrainHedge.com to take your no-obligation demo of the trading platform used on GrainTV. Have a great weekend.

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Weather, Chinese Demand, Export Sales Drive Markets

Apr 18, 2013

Another mixed day for the grain complex. Corn headed lower, while soybeans rallied and wheat remained steady. Export sales were good across the board, but were especially strong for new crop wheat. Chinese demand for corn and soybeans still is a concern with the ongoing bird flu outbreak. Precipitation and cold temperatures continue to hamper planting progress. Tune in for a full breakdown of these stories and today's ethanol numbers on today's GrainTV. Visit us at GrainHedge.com to take your no-obligation demo of the trading platform used on GrainTV.

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Stronger Dollar Limits Wheat Gains, Corn and Beans Trade Mixed

Apr 17, 2013

May soybeans lead the grain market higher as concerns over South American strikes put in a bid in the US market. Wheat had a strong showing early but a rallying dollar index limited gains late in the session. Tune in for a full breakdown of these stories and today's ethanol numbers on today's GrainTV. Visit us at GrainHedge.com to take your no-obligation demo of the trading platform used on GrainTV.

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

How High Can May Corn Go?

Apr 16, 2013

Cody and Brock discuss the technical landscape on old crop corn and how high this market can go on today's GrainTV. Visit us at GrainHedge.com and take your no obligation demo of the trading platform used on GrainTV.

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

China's Weaker GDP Figure Drives Markets Lower

Apr 15, 2013

China's GDP was reported lower than was expected over the weekend. This weighed heavily on the commodities markets with gold, oil, and grains all trading sharply lower. NOPA crush numbers were better than anticipated, but was overshadowed by the macro markets. Crop progress was released this afternoon with corn planting at 2% complete. Tune in for these topics and more. Visit us at GrainHedge.com and take your no obligation demo of the trading platform used on GrainTV.

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS.
FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Grains End The Week Strong

Apr 14, 2013

Cody and Logan discuss a grain market that picked up strength across the board to end the week. Visit us at GrainHedge.com and take your no obligation demo of the trading platform used on GrainTV.

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS.
FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

USDA Report Breakdown -- Is a Bottom in for Corn?

Apr 10, 2013

The USDA released its monthly report this morning. Corn ending stocks were revised higher by 125 million bushels, but the trade was looking for a larger increase. This led to some volatility after the release. Brock and Logan discuss the balance sheet changes in this morning's report. EIA ethanol numbers are also discussed. Export sales will be out tomorrow morning. Tune in for a full breakdown. Visit us at GrainHedge.com and take your no obligation demo of the trading platform used on GrainTV.

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS.
FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

USDA Report Analysis and Numbers

Apr 10, 2013
We just got the April USDA report and at the moment we see old crop corn up 1 cent, soybeans off 2 cents, and wheat down 10 1/2. Below are USDA projections for US Ending stocks
 
US Ending Stock Reported (Million Bushels)
 
 
April
Estimated
March
Corn 757
812
632
Soybeans 125
136
125
Wheat
731
727
716
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Corn ending stocks were the big number coming into this report, and as you can see the reported number came in below average trade estimates. Feed and residual were lowered 150 million bushels (MB), ethanol usage was raised 50 MB, and exports were lowered 25 MB. On net 125 MB were added to 12/13 ending stocks.

The USDA left Soybean ending stocks unchanged but did adjust the balance sheet. 20 MB were added to crushings and 5 MB added to exports. Counter acting this was 25 million reduced from expected residual use.

Wheat saw ending stocks come in slightly higher than trade estimates, with 15 MB added to projected ending stocks. Driving this change was 15 MB reduced from expected feed and residual use.

Below is audio commentary of today's numbers and analysis of what this means for the grain market moving forward: AUDIO COMMENTARY

USDA Report - What To Expect

Apr 09, 2013

This Wednesday, at 11:00 AM Central Time, the USDA will release the April WASDE Report. Below are market expectations for US ending stocks, and what Grain Hedge analysts are looking for out of the numbers. 
 
US Ending Stock Estimates
 
 
Avg. Guess
Range
March
Corn 812
625 - 925
632
Soybeans
136
107 - 160
125
Wheat
727
700 - 755
716
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ending stocks of corn will be closely analyzed after the March 1st Quarterly Stocks showed almost 400 million more corn bushels than the market was expecting. Given domestic and export demand, we do not think an ending stock number approaching 900 million bushels would be out of the question.

  

We would expect the USDA to revise feed and possibly ethanol usage lower in Wednesday's report to help make up for the additional bushels found in the March 1st grain stocks. Old crop prices will be fighting an uphill battle until we see demand return to this market. Even after losing $1.00 per bushel on May corn futures we have not seen a sizable improvement in old crop export sales.

Expectations are for wheat and soybean ending stocks to be raised slightly from the March report, but corn will remain the focus of Wednesday's numbers. This report is especially important for producers holding on to old crop bushels, as 2013/14 production and usage will not be projected until the May WASDE report.

 

Visit us at GrainHedge.com and take your no obligation demo of the trading platform used on GrainTV.

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS.
FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Positive Day for Grains, Will It Continue Ahead of the USDA Reports?

Apr 08, 2013

Export inspections for wheat and soybeans beat analysts' expectations, but corn failed to meet expections. A large sale of wheat to China over the weekend confirmed rumors from last week. Some of today's gains can be attributed to position evening ahead of the USDA reports due out Wednesday. South American production estimates are also discussed. Tune in for a full breakdown. Visit us at GrainHedge.com and take your no obligation demo of the trading platform used on GrainTV.

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS.
FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Weekly Wrap Up -- Fund Long Liquidation a Staple This Week

Apr 05, 2013

On the Weekly Wrap Up, Logan and Brock discuss today's continuation of selling in corn and soybeans. Wheat gained today to finish the week just under $7. Expectations for domestic ending stocks to be published in next week's USDA/WASDE report. The Commitment of Traders report is also discussed. Tune in for a full breakdown. Visit us at GrainHedge.com and take your no obligation demo of the trading platform used on GrainTV.

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS.
FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Prices Continue to Tumble, Will Demand Pick Up Soon?

Apr 04, 2013

On today's broadcast, Cody and Logan discuss the selling that continues for the grain markets. Export sales are discussed and how the price declines recently will affect export sales moving forward. Ethanol demand and crush margins are also highlighted. The corn/wheat cash market spread gives the incentive for feed users to feed corn. Tune in for a full breakdown. Visit us at GrainHedge.com and take your no obligation demo of the trading platform used on GrainTV.

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS.
FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Corn, Wheat Rebound -- Will Fundamentals Continue to Support Buying at these Levels?

Apr 03, 2013

On today's broadcast, Brock and Logan discuss the rally in the wheat market. Wheat added about 25 cents on rumors that China is potentially searching to purchase about 10 cargoes of SRW wheat. Ethanol production moved higher again this week as margins continue to improve. Tomorrow gives us the export sales report. Analysts' expectations are discussed. Tune in for a full breakdown. Visit us at GrainHedge.com and take your no obligation demo of the trading platform used on GrainTV.

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS.
FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

How much further can we fall?

Apr 02, 2013

Grains found some traction in a volatile trade session on Tuesday. Could we have found a short term bottom?  Visit us at GrainHedge.com and take your no obligation demo of the trading platform used on GrainTV.

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS.
FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

Grains Slide Farther, Will Tomorrow Be Turnaround Tuesday?

Apr 01, 2013

Grains closed sharply lower across the board on a continuation from Thursday's bearish Quarterly Grain Stocks report. The corn market moved sharply lower right as the market opened last night. Commodity funds were once again large net sellers across the ag commodities. Export inspections did little to support today. Tune in for a full recap. Visit us at GrainHedge.com and take your no obligation demo of the trading platform used on GrainTV.

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS.
FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.

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