Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 23, 2013 at 5:00 am.  Grains are mixed on position evening and profit taking ahead of the long weekend. The PMI data out of China overnight has equity markets and base commodities under pressure this morning. Traders will be dealing with mixed signals in the grain complex as the holiday weekend approaches. An opposite directional move of the cash markets versus futures yesterday has traders scratching their heads. Futures rocketed through recent highs and closed strong in both corn and soybeans. Cash basis, on the other hand, dropped sharply. There were reports late yesterday that elevator basis for soybeans fell 20 to 28 cents per bushel. This suggests farmers are moving enough grain to fill end-users needs. The news that ethanol production was down only 5.2% from last year when USDA is forecasting a 10% decline and the announcement that China and unknown buyers purchased 540,000 tonnes of new crop corn is providing some support under the market this morning. Funds were estimated net buyers of 12,000 corn, 2,000 wheat and 7,000 soybean contracts yesterday. The farm bill is still in limbo in the senate. There is a lot of talk about the risk of having nearly 50% of the corn crop planted in a 10 day period which projects pollination to occur in late July. Historically temps could be very hot during that period. You can get a professionals opinion on Tuesday evening when Rich Nelson, Allendale’s’ Chief Strategist, and Matt Hubsch, an agronomist from Legend Seeds, will discuss potential issues in corn production. Sign up today for the Allendale Ag Leaders webinar on Tuesday night at 8 pm. Of course it is free.

Boxed beef was mixed on Wednesday afternoon. However, choice set new highs again at 211.20 up .54. Select was down .78. The Feeder Index was unchanged at 131.53. Cash cattle are reported trading in TX at 124 which is 1.00 lower than last week. Packer margins have improved greatly due to higher wholesale beef prices.  Packers have a short week next week and don’t need as many cattle giving them the upper hand. Pork stocks in cold storage grew by 51 million lbs. last month. Wednesday’s number of 698.816 million lbs. is a new record of any month! The previous high was April 2008’s 663. Pork cutout value was up .65 to 94.34.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

• Jul #Corn    -3 1/2
• Jul #Beans   + 3/4
• Jul #Wheat   +4 1/2
• Jun #Cattle  +.10
• Jun #Hogs    -.17
• Jun Dlr     -.46
• Jun S&P     -19.00
• Jul Crude   -1.25
• Jun Gold    +16.90

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Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 22, 2013 at 5:10 am. The Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar is only a few days away. Get the full details, sign up today and join Rich Nelson and an agronomist from Legend Seed. Grain futures are mixed as old crop contracts are weaker and new crop contracts show some short covering overnight. Cash movement picked up some yesterday as farmers that finished planting were willing to sell some old inventory. Basis at some Midwest terminals slipped due to this movement of corn and soybeans. We are hearing elevators are now pricing off of the August beans and December corn contracts in some locations. Spreads between old crop and new crop futures contracts are the feature at the CME. Profit taking in the bull spreads should be supported by tight cash supplies of both corn and soybeans. Traders are thinking progress this week could take corn to 90% planted by next Sunday. Funds sold a net 9,000 contracts of corn and 1,000 wheat contracts. Estimates are they bought 4,000 soybean contracts. The Senate will continue to debate the Farm Bill today. Oil World said they believe China will increase soybean imports during May and that it is likely the US will import 32 million bushel of soybeans this year. Boxed beef values were mixed on Tuesday with choice up .41 and select down .44. The feeder cattle index was down .45 to 131.53. Rich Nelson says "there are some clear seasonal price movements that all hog market participants need to be aware of. Typically, hog prices rally into the second or third week of May. After that is accomplished though, cash hogs trade in a big sideways range with some two week swings up and down along the way." Pork cutout values were up .31 on Tuesday. You can subscribe today at a special rate to the Allendale Advisory Report and get the full story.

Markets as of 5:10 AM

• Jul Corn    – 1/4
• Jul Beans   -3 3/4
• Jul Wheat   +2 1/2
• Jun Cattle  +.25
• Jun Hogs    +.30
• Jun Dlr     -.09
• Jun S&P     +1.00
• Jul Crude   -.71
• Jun Gold    +7.70

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Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 21, 2013 at 4:45 am. Grain futures are lower being led by old crop corn. Tight supplies and strike of dock workers in Argentina provide support for the July soybean contract. The Crop Progress report yesterday afternoon suggests US corn farmers planted approximately 41.84 million acres of corn and nearly 14 million acres of soybeans last week. Corn planting progress increased from 28% to 71% complete. We are now only 8% behind the 5 year average of 79%. Three major corn producing states of IL, IA and MN planted more than half of their corn last week. Soybean progress improved by 18% to a total of 24% versus 42% average. Spring wheat producers were hard at work by increasing planted acreage to 67%. Winter Wheat condition was downgraded to 31% in the Good/Excellent category. Traders will now focus on when the balance of planting will be complete. There is more talk that we could lose up to 2 million acres of corn due to prevent planting. Checkout Allendale’s weekly meeting Strategy Session for a discussion on how this may impact ending stocks. Money flow seems to be moving out of commodities into equities. Dr. Bernanke will be testifying on Wednesday which will be watched closely for any indications of policy change. June CBOT options expire on Friday before the long weekend. Taking a closer look at the Cattle on Feed report, released Friday, showed that most of the cattle placed during April were heavy weights. There was an increase of 21% of 800 lb. and higher weight cattle and a jump of 20% in the 700 to 799 lb. category. Lighter weight cattle were less than a year ago. One would have to say feedlots want to feed the least amount of corn as possible. Futures firmed up on Monday as the virus fear in pork was confirmed to not be a threat to meat. Boxed beef was higher with choice notching another record high price at 210.34 up .53 and select was up 1.10. The feeder index settled at 131.98. Pork cutout value was down .10 on Monday. Don’t forget to sign up for the May 28, 2013 Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar.

Markets as of 4:45 AM

• Jul #Corn    -15 1/2
• Jul #Beans   + 1/2
• Jul #Wheat   -10 1/2
• Jun #Cattle  +.50
• Jun #Hogs    -.07
• Jun Dlr     +.27
• Jun S&P     -2.75
• Jun Crude   -.22
• Jun Gold    -6.60

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Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 20, 2013 at 5:05 am. Grain futures are mixed with old crop higher and new crop lower. Trade is looking for over 60% of the corn crop to be planted this afternoon. The record corn planted for last week was 42% in 1992. Some are talking about a record planting pace last week which would mean 70% total plantings for corn. Weather gave producers a few more hours to do fieldwork in most of the Midwest over the weekend. A system moved across northern IA into southern MN and WI yesterday. In years of similar delayed planting, corn was able to out produce trend yield 50% of the time. Soybean planting is expected to increase from last week at 6% up to 30 to 35% this week. Spreaders continue to be a market mover as cash corn is extremely tight and planting progress improves. However we have heard of more cash beans moving on Friday after July futures plus basis put prices at highs not seen since March. Beneficial rains fell on the southern plains wheat region over the weekend. Weather forecasts this week will still be a market mover as we approach the Memorial Day holiday next Monday. Brazil’s congress approved legislation to open the state owned ports to private investors in an effort to rid the country of export delays. Managed Money increased long positions by 14,000 corn contracts and 10,762 in soybeans. They also increased short position in wheat by 6,781 contracts last week. Livestock futures fell on Friday due to a concern of a disease in US hogs. The bottom line is that there has been more detection of PED which could cause a tighter supply of hogs in 4 to 6 months as it could reduce litter survival rates. The Cattle on feed report was a bit negative but will the market stay under pressure after the sharp selloff on Friday and the oversold condition of June futures? Boxed beef values were mixed on Friday with choice posting new all-time highs at 209.51 up .74. Select was down .40. The feeder index was up .90 to 135.40. Pork cutout values were up .12. Outside markets are under pressure again this morning. The May Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar is set for May 28 at 8 PM.

Markets as of 5:05 AM

• Jul #Corn    +2 3/4
• Jul #Beans   +4
• Jul #Wheat   - 3/4
• Jun #Cattle  Steady-Lower
• Jun #Hogs    Steady-Lower
• Jun Dlr     -.23
• Jun S&P     -.25
• Jun Crude   -.50
• Jun Gold    -15.20

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Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 16, 2013 at 5:05 am. Grain futures are mixed in a quiet overnight session. Outside markets are under pressure again this morning. I will apologize in advance for not putting out a Wake-up Call on Friday morning. Traveling to New York City later this morning and returning on the redeye will cause great inconvenience in getting out the report. Instead I will give all readers free access to the Allendale Advisory Report. See all details tomorrow morning. Planting progress is expected have a significant improvement this week. We are getting more clients saying they are done planting corn. There have been some analysts expecting IA to be 70% planted by Monday’s report. The short term forecast has 1 to 2 inch rains across central IL and IN through the weekend. However southwestern IL looks drier giving farmers a chance to get fieldwork done. The NOPA crush was 9% below last year but in order to hit the USDA target in the balance sheet, crush needs to be 23% below last year’s production. Wheat market was hit by a little wetter forecast for southern plains and technical selling pressure yesterday. Funds are estimated selling a net 5,000 corn contracts and 4,000 wheat contracts. They were estimated even on the soybeans. Brazil stevedores end their 2 day strike at Santos port according to Reuters New. Midwest basis is still firm on lack of grain movement.

USDA releases sales data at 7:30.

TABLE-Trade estimates for USDA weekly grain/soy export sales – RTRS

                  2012/13                    2013/14        

                         Estimates                     Estimates                   

Corn            150,000-250,000        150,000-250,000

Soybeans           zero-100,000        400,000-500,000

Soymeal             zero-100,000              zero-80,000

Soyoil               5,000-15,000                zero         

Wheat                 zero-250,000        250,000-350,000    

The USDA will release the May Cattle on Feed Friday afternoon at 2:00pm. The trade estimates are: On-Feed 96.5, Placed 114.7 and Marketed 102.2. Placements seem large when compared to a year ago low number. Cash cattle trade is still at a standstill as packers are concerned about beef prices next week. Most of Memorial Day demand should be complete by Monday. Boxed beef is higher with choice up 1.86 and select up .68. Packer margins are now near $70 in the black. Nearby hog futures find support on tight cash supplies due to producers concentrating on fieldwork. Pork cutout values are up 1.02 as retailers prepare for the holiday weekend. The May Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar is set for May 28 at 8 PM, register here.

Markets as of 5:05 AM

• Jul Corn    – 1/2
• Jul Beans   +4 1/4
• Jul Wheat   +3 1/4
• Jun Cattle  +.20
• Jun Hogs    +.32
• Jun Dlr     +.03
• Jun S&P     -2.00
• Jun Crude   -.73
• Jun Gold    -24.90

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