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October 2012 Archive for The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Grains Start Higher for Third Day

Oct 31, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 31, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grains are higher for a third day but can they hold gains into close? Our thoughts and prayers are with those living and dealing with the aftermath of Super Storm Sandy. Yesterday I traveled to Noblesville, IN to visit our branch office. I was surprised to see the amount of corn and soybeans to be harvested. By noon the rains came driving them out of the fields again. Winter wheat planting is way behind in southern Indiana and Ohio due to wet field conditions. The rule of thumb is to have wheat in the ground by November 1st. We’re not hearing any chatter from trade about that issue, only from producers. The Argentina wet weather is delaying planting of corn. News stories out yesterday talked about a 20% decline in production because of too much moisture delaying planting progress. The greater concern should be the delay in harvest and meeting shipment commitments due to the later than normal planting progress. The USDA was closed Monday and Tuesday but is expected to be open today. No announcement on when the harvest progress will be released. Trade analysts surveyed expect corn to be 93% and soybeans 88% harvested. Delivery notices for November contracts will be announced later this morning with some floor traders expecting 200 to 500,000 bushel of soybeans put out. They are citing the reason for these deliveries is the sharp rise in freight rate to the gulf. Funds are starting to roll positions today. We expect another quiet session as east coast traders come back online. The presidential election is less than a week away which will keep traders nervous and quiet. Cash cattle traded at 126.50 to 127.00 which is steady to .50 lower compared to last week. Boxed beef was mixed. Choice was up .67 and select down 1.20. The spread between choice and select has been widening. It could be suggesting that cattle feeders are cutting losses by moving cattle early. The east coast storm is also creating problems in consumption of beef and movement of product. Pork cutout was down .46 on Tuesday. Thanks to Al Ambrose and the Allendale Team for putting on an outstanding Ag Leaders Webinar last evening. Those who were unable to attend can get a recorded copy on Friday morning. See www.Allendale-inc.com.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    +6
Nov Beans   +10 3/4
Dec Wheat   +10 1/4
Dec Cattle -.07
Dec Hogs    +.20
Dec Dlr     -.17
Dec S+P     +9.50
Dec Crude   +.71
Dec Gold    +7.00
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Dec Lean Hogs had an inside range day yesterday. This may imply that we have lost momentum to the upside and are beginning a sideways to lower trading range…Frank La Placa
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Hurricane Sandy has moved inland. Monday night’s winds hit in excess of 80 miles per hour. Power has been cut to 7.4 million people from South Carolina on up to Ohio. Authorities in New York noted the closely followed "storm surge" brought 13 feet of seawater. That was three more than the previous record. The storm will continue westward for a few hours before the forecast suggests a Northeast turn. Trading at the New York Stock Exchange floor as well as in financial debt products was not seen Tuesday.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Sandy Has Effect on Volume

Oct 30, 2012

 

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 30, 2012 at 4:50 am. Grains are higher as traders prepare for damage results from northeast US. The remnants of Hurricane Sandy and the closing of the New York Stock Exchange for a second day will likely lead to another quiet day at the CME. Weekly crop conditions report is expected to be released this afternoon but Washington is assessing the damage from the storm. Demand is still a key factor and the spread between South American and US corn has moved from $60 to $30 a tonne. Domestic demand is slowing in the livestock industry with fewer cattle on feed and tighter hog numbers. Ethanol processors are now reluctant to use aflatoxin corn as they worry about finding buyers for contaminated DDGs. Funds rolling of positions will begin in earnest on Wednesday with Rogers Fund, Duetsche Bank Fund on Friday and Goldman next Wednesday. First notice day is tomorrow for November contracts in grains. Technical support was tested in corn on Monday at 7.32 1/2. Expect more selling if this level is broken. Newswires are reporting that in an interview with CME Chairman Duffy said that CME will not trim electronic grain trading hours. Crude oil refineries are closed which could reduce demand and pressure prices. Choice beef was up .68 and select was down .62. The weather on the east coast is disrupting demand at a time when choice beef values are testing the $200.00 level. Cash cattle are expected to trade steady to .50 lower this week. Pork cutout was up .09 on Monday. Join us tonight at 8:00 PM CDT for the Ag Leaders Webinar. We will feature a look at the soy complex with Rich Nelson, Frank La Placa, and our special guest, Al Ambrose (who will also be a speaker at Allendale Conference in January). We hope you can join us for the webinar. Registration is free and open to everyone.
 
 
Markets as of 4:50 AM
Dec Corn    +3
Nov Beans   +6 1/2
Dec Wheat   +4 1/4
Dec Cattle +.02
Dec Hogs    +.40
Dec Dlr     -.17
Dec S+P     -2.75
Dec Crude   +.11
Dec Gold    +4.40
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday Dec Live Cattle found support at the bottom end of the channel that it has been in for the last four months. The story for Live Cattle will be how it recovers from this latest sell off. If we see enthusiastic buying from these lows we can assume that we will make a run at the upper edge of the channel. If it takes multiple sessions to take out the pivot high of $128.30 I would guess that the recovery attempt will fail…Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The Indian wheat industry believes they are the right country to fill the hole left from Ukraine’s exit from the export market. One industry executive, M. K. Dattaraj notes prices are $10 to $14 per tonne lower than the US. He notes Australia won’t be a force until early January when its new crop is at the ports. One limiting factor is shipping. It can take anywhere from 15 to 60 days just to load a ship at its various ports.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

 

Spreaders Adjust Positions

Oct 29, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 29, 2012 at 5:15 am. Grains are mixed with corn higher and soybeans lower. Profit taking in the spread is a factor after beans rallied 27 cents and corn was down 24 cents last week. Looking ahead to market moving events this week, we have First Notice day for November contracts on Wednesday. However trade is not expecting any deliveries in soybeans. Crush margins remain positive. Soymeal is getting support from demand as end-users are concerned about aflatoxin levels in DDGs. Weather in South America is supporting futures markets as forecasts have less than ideal start to their growing season. However this week’s forecast has a little more moisture for northern Brazil. Cash needs are being filled by resellers due to strong basis. Lower prices are not encouraging producers to open bin doors. The CFTC report had managed money funds adding to longs by more than 26,000 corn contracts, 9800 wheat contracts and 5252 soybean contracts. Remember this data is collected as of Tuesday of last week. Later today we will get the harvest progress report which should give us numbers that say we are basically done. A concern that is coming across my desk from producers is when will we see a pickup in demand? We are almost through our best demand period of the year. Other countries are filling our customer’s needs. Technically a close below 7.32 in Dec corn could trigger more long liquidation. Cattle futures are expected to open lower as boxed beef values fell sharply on Friday. Choice was down 2.55 and select down 2.85. Pork cutout values were down .50 on Friday. Join us for the Ag Leaders Webinar on Tuesday evening October 30th at 8:00 PM CDT. This month will feature a look at the soy complex with Rich Nelson, Frank La Placa, and our special guest, Al Ambrose (who will also be a speaker at Allendale Conference in January). We hope you can join us for the webinar. Registration is free and open to everyone.
 
 
Markets as of 5:15 AM
Dec Corn    +5
Nov Beans   -14 1/4
Dec Wheat   +4 1/4
Dec Cattle Steady-Lower
Dec Hogs    Steady-Lower
Dec Dlr     +.10
Dec S+P     -8.75
Dec Crude   -.80
Dec Gold    +.30
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Dec Corn has its target set on the 10/10 low of $7.32 if we do see a close below this level we will confirm the 10/19 high of $7.69 as the new pivot high that must be closed above to the negate the downtrend. In the meantime the trend must be viewed as down and lower prices should not surprise…Frank La Placa 
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The first estimate of Q3 GDP was revealed at 2.0% on Friday. The trade estimated a 1.8% growth figure for this August – October period. That was up from the Q2 level of 1.3%.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Grains are Quiet in Overnight Session

Oct 26, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 26, 2012 at 5:05 am. Grains are lower on follow through selling. Markets are quiet and the lack of bullish news is weighing on futures. The firm cash market is providing underlining support. Export news yesterday was a bust for corn and soybeans, coming in below trade expectations. The trade has started to talk about fund rebalancing. This will not happen until early January, however DOW-UBS released their rebalancing figures. Trade has estimated that if they were to do it today it would mean selling 30,000 soybeans, 12,000 soyoil, 55,000 Chicago wheat, 7,000 corn, 43,000 soymeal and 23,000 KC wheat. With the lack of fresh news, these numbers caught the attention of traders. On Thursday funds sold 10,000 contracts of corn, 4,000 soybeans and 2,500 wheat. South American weather is not ideal but more moisture has been added to the forecast for Brazil over the next week to 10 days. Option expiration is today at the close. The 7.50 corn calls and 7.20 puts have the largest remaining open interest. The December corn futures are near major technical support at 7.32. A weekly close below that level would not be positive for the bulls. Cash cattle traded at 127 on Thursday which was steady with last week. Futures fell sharply of fund and technical selling. Breaking of the uptrend support line drew long liquidation. Boxed beef was lower as choice was down .01 and select, down 1.37, gave back some of Wednesday’s gain. Pork cutout values were up .25 on Thursday. Dec futures have support at 77.62 which is important to maintain uptrend. Join us for the Ag Leaders Webinar on October 30th at 8:00 PM CDT. This month will feature a look at the soy complex with Rich Nelson, Frank La Placa, and our special guest, Al Ambrose (who will also be a speaker at Allendale Conference in January). We hope you can join us for the webinar. Registration is free and open to everyone.
 
 
Markets as of 5:05 AM
Dec Corn    -1 1/2
Nov Beans   -6 3/4
Dec Wheat   - 1/4
Dec Cattle +.02
Dec Hogs    +.35
Dec Dlr     +.07
Dec S+P     -10.75
Dec Crude   -.68
Dec Gold    -6.70
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday Dec Live Cattle suffered a momentum failure that has negated the uptrend and is opening the door for a potential retest of the 9/27 pivot low of $123.95. Smartly, the market did catch itself at support in the mid $125.00 range. If we see a break below $125, we can safely say that the trend is down…Frank La Placa
 
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Another ethanol plant goes on the "idle" list. Southwest Georgia Ethanol announced it temporarily shut down its Camilla, Georgia plant. Industry sources suggest this point is a 100 million gallon per year capacity operation. That converts out to 35.7 million bushels of potential corn use per year. This plant used corn as its main feedstock and is the most Southeast located plant in the US.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Weekly Exports Released at 7:30

Oct 25, 2012

 

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 25, 2012 at 5:05 am. Grains are higher in a quiet session. The almost daily announcements of foreign purchases of US soybeans provides a boost for futures. Demand remains a major focus of traders. Yesterday we got the ethanol production and crush numbers. For two weeks now, ethanol production has run 12% under last year. Year to date is now -7.9%. USDA estimates the whole year corn for ethanol will be 10% lower than last year. Exports are another big piece of the usage pie. Ukraine confirmed yesterday they will be banning exports of wheat due to the low production caused by drought in 2012. Today’s weekly sales estimates are as follows: Wheat 350 to 450 tmt, corn 150 to 250 tmt, soybeans 650 to 850 tmt, meal 150 to 250 tmt and soyoil 15 to 35 tmt.  Cash corn markets were firmer while soybeans eased at river terminals even with a jump in barge freight rate. We have been talking about production and carryover of corn for 2013-14 for several days. We put out a recommendation yesterday for subscribers of the Allendale Advisory. Sign-up online or contact your Allendale representative for complete details. Dec futures seem to be attracted to the 7.50 area where the largest open interest remains in the November options which will expire tomorrow. November soybeans have still has a large open interest remaining in the 16.00 strike. The weather forecast next week suggests less rain for Argentina and more moisture for northern Brazil. Producers have plenty of time to catch up on planting but the less than ideal conditions have traders nervous. Cash cattle trade is still in a standoff. Product remains firm with choice up .86 and select up .58. Beef values should be running into consumer resistance at these levels especially with current production rate by packers. Pork continues to slide as cutout values drop another 1.99 on Wednesday. The low yesterday of 77.62 in Dec contract will be key support. If this level is penetrated watch for more selling pressure. Our live monthly Ag Leaders Webinar is October 30th at 8:00 PM CDT. This month will feature a look at the soy complex with Rich Nelson, Frank La Placa, and our special guest, Al Ambrose (who will also be a speaker at Allendale Conference in January). We hope you can join us for the webinar. Registration is free and open to everyone.
 
 
Markets as of 5:05 AM
Dec Corn    +1
Nov Beans   +1 3/4
Dec Wheat   -1
Dec Cattle +.05
Dec Hogs    +.20
Dec Dlr     -.20
Dec S+P     +8.25
Dec Crude   +.66
Dec Gold    +14.60
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Did Dec Wheat break out yesterday? That is a question that we have asked multiple times over the last 4 months. Looking at the chart, we stopped yesterday’s rally at $8.95 which is one cent higher than the 10/11 pivot high of $8.94. Due to the failure to break resistance I am not convinced that we have done enough to say we are making a move higher but evidence is mounting that we may be on our way…Frank La Placa 
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
China: Imports of soybeans during the month of September totaled 4.97 million tonnes. That represents a 20% increase over last year according to the General Administration of Customs.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

 

Spreaders Dominate Price Movement in Light Volume Trading

Oct 24, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 24, 2012 at 5:15 am. Grains are higher as traders have a risk-on attitude this morning. China’s PMI data indicates signs of recovery and EU data will be released today. Tomorrow we have export sales and Friday we have option expiration. Grain markets are moving within a range battling tight supplies and demand interest. When macroeconomic influences are played out during the session then spreaders take over. The current tight supplies of all grains are supporting bull spreads. Demand is driving much of the reason for soybeans gaining on corn. South American corn exports are picking up the slack in US supplies. Brazil produced a record corn crop in 2011/2012 and expects to export a record 17 million tonnes.  USDA expects Argentina exports to reach 16 million tonnes of corn from its 2012/2013 crop, while Brazil's exports could reach 19 million tonnes. The purchase by Mexico of 270,000 tonnes optional origin corn was switched to definitely not US corn by announcement from USDA yesterday. A concern of Allendale is the amount of time and at what price will it take to get corn demand back once supplies are replenished. Using the planted acreage estimates for next year and the possibility of a trend yield, bins could be full again in 2013. With increasing input costs, producers should be taking a serious look at protecting some of 2013’s insured bushels. Cattle are being supported by positive news in product prices. Boxed beef was firmer on Tuesday. Choice up .17 and Select up 1.18. Cash cattle are expected to trade at steady to higher this week. Lean hog futures were under pressure as long-term uptrend support is being tested. Product values were down 1.23 and supplies are burdensome. Seasonally a correction in price is possible. Our live monthly Ag Leaders Webinar is October 30th at 8:00 PM CDT. This month will feature a look at the soy complex with Rich Nelson, Frank La Placa, and our special guest, Al Ambrose (who will also be a speaker at Allendale Conference in January). We hope you can join us for the webinar. Registration is free and open to everyone.
 
 
Markets as of 5:15 AM
Dec Corn    +2 1/2
Nov Beans   +9 1/4
Dec Wheat   +3 3/4
Dec Cattle +.27
Dec Hogs    +.10
Dec Dlr     +.09
Dec S+P     +3.50
Dec Crude   +.14
Dec Gold    +.03
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday, Nov Soybeans had an inside range day. This implies that the Nov Soybeans may have run out of momentum to the upside since we were not able to take out Monday’s highs. I am looking for a close either above or below Monday’s range to assume the next leg of this market…Frank La Placa
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Winter wheat planting gained from 71% to now 81%. Planting is right near the 80% five year average. The real issue here is emergence as we are now 7% behind the five year average pace of 56%. South Dakota for example is only 13% emerged. Typically that state is 80% by now.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Traders Satisfied to Wait

Oct 23, 2012

 

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 23, 2012 at 4:45 am. Grains are lower led by a risk-off attitude by traders. Overall markets are range bound ahead of the presidential election. Fund managers have reduced positions or just moved to the side until they get a clear picture of government policy in the US. Other traders are sitting still, waiting for option expiration on Friday. The 7.50 strike in corn and the 15.00 strike in soybeans have the largest open interest. Normally the market migrates toward these levels. Soybean harvest is 80% complete compared to last week of 77%. Corn was 87% harvested versus 79% last week. The EU announced they will accept GMO corn from Brazil. Using the Informa planted acreage number from last Friday, 2013 ending stocks project to be over 2.0 billion bushels, when completing the balance sheet with trend yield for corn while adjusting usage and exports. The amazing part of these calculations is that production could be 4.4 billion greater than this year. When working through these numbers, it should heighten the awareness of price potential and profitability for 2013. Allendale brokers have strategies they are happy to share with you. Call us at 800-262-7538. Livestock futures retreated after a bullish cattle-on-feed report which is not unusual. Cold storage data was long-term positive to beef and showed large pork product in the locker. However the price outlook targets for live cattle futures should be raised as market supplies into next year. Boxed beef was higher on Monday with choice up 1.67 and select up 1.08. Pork cutout values were down .41. We are watching for a sell signal in the pork complex. We’re getting a great response for our Ag Leaders Webinar this month which will feature a look at the soy complex with Rich Nelson, Frank La Placa, and our special guest, Al Ambrose. We hope you can join us. Registration is free and open to everyone.
 
 
Markets as of 4:45 AM
Dec Corn    -5 1/2
Nov Beans   -12 3/4
Dec Wheat   -7 1/4
Dec Cattle +.27
Dec Hogs    -.10
Dec Dlr     +.05
Dec S+P     -10.00
Nov Crude   -1.32
Dec Gold    -9.30
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday Dec Lean Hogs had a short term divergence in momentum that could indicate a break in the rally. Coupled with the market’s proximity to the recent top of the market and the psychological $80.00 level, we could see lower prices in the next few days…Frank La Placa
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Argentina: The Agriculture Ministry, in its weekly report, indicated recent heavy rains had helped the wheat crop. The trade has assumed they have harmed the crop which is now entering into early harvest. The decline in production this year is cited from the 20% decline in acreage as producers shifted to corn and soybeans.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

 

COF Suggest Price Is Curbing Grain Demand

Oct 22, 2012

 

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 22, 2012 at 5.10 am. Grains are higher on short covering and limited cash movement. The Cattle-on-Feed Report showed us that the price of corn is slowing down demand as placements during September were 18.8% below last year. With harvest winding down and marketable supplies in strong hands, traders will be monitoring demand very closely. Export markets currently have US grains priced well above competition on the world market. It appears cash basis will be the key to unlocking those on-farm storage bins. Weather forecast in South America has Argentina a little dryer and Brazil’s dry area confined to the northeast region. The November options expire this week on Friday. Harvest progress this afternoon and weekly export sales on Thursday will be important reports in the week ahead. Reuters News reported that judging on the 12% seed sales increase in Brazil and Argentina we could see record production. Estimates are 80 mmt for the bean crop in Brazil and a 53-56 mmt crop out of Argentina. The Russian Ag Minister says he opposes any ban on exports. CFTC commitment of traders had funds reducing long positions in grains by 16,103 contract. Swap Dealers had little change in positions through Tuesday of last week. Cash cattle traded 2.00 higher on Friday at 127 to 128. The bottom-line on the report has to be considered bullish. The overall cattle on feed are now less than a year ago. We expect that trend to continue. Boxed beef was lower on Friday. Choice was down .13 and select down .43. Pork cutout values were up 1.26. Look for livestock to open steady higher this morning. We’re getting a great response for our Ag Leaders Webinar this month which will feature a look at the soy complex with Rich Nelson, Frank La Placa, and our special guest, Al Ambrose. We hope you can join us. Registration is free and open to everyone.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    +4
Nov Beans   +13 3/4
Dec Wheat   +8 1/4
Dec Cattle Steady-Higher
Dec Hogs    Steady-Higher
Dec Dlr     -.08
Dec S+P     +6.00
Nov Crude   +.53
Dec Gold    +2.00
 
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Dec Corn is attempting to test the 10/11 pivot high of $7.76. A close above this level will negate the downtrend and set Dec Corn up for another leg higher. If we do see a failure at this level, a close below $7.32 could see the lows tested…Frank La Placa
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Ukraine: The government announced there would be no more exports after November 15. This comes as the industry nears its voluntary 5 million tonne grain export limit. The industry has exported 3.5 million tonnes so far with the unknown number of signed deals, yet to be delivered, likely pushing the total near 6 mt. This news should not be a surprise to the industry.
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

 

Export Ban on Wheat by Ukraine

Oct 19, 2012

 

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 19, 2012 at 5.10 am. Grains are higher led by wheat. Ukraine announced overnight that they were halting wheat exports as of Nov.15. The halt of shipments by Ukraine has been talked about as a possibility for several days. Follow through buying also providing support after the grain markets woke up on the bullish side of the bed on Thursday. After several quiet sessions and markets in a narrow trading range, a change in the southern hemisphere weather got the motor running. Forecasts turned dryer in Brazil and wetter in Argentina. We have mentioned in previous "Morning Calls" how sensitive traders will be this year to anything but perfect growing conditions around the world. Funds bought 12,000 corn and 11,000 soybeans on Thursday. Some believe this was funds getting back into the market after the CFTC extended the decision on SWAPs. A few things we have to watch for today is: Will the Funds be back doing more buying? And will futures close high enough to signal a weekly chart reversal? A close in Dec corn above 7.68 would look very positive on the charts. A close above the 15.50 level in November soybeans, which is where the 20 day moving average crosses today, could activate more buying. A close above 9.00 would give a positive look to December wheat. Stay in touch with your Allendale Representative and the Allendale Advisory Report. Are you getting the Allendale Daily texts? If not call us or email us your cell number and we will set you up FREE of Charge! The Livestock traders will be waiting for the October Cattle-on-Feed Report this afternoon at 2:00 pm. Average guess are 97.8% on feed, 85.1% placed and 90.0% marketed. Cash cattle trade is at a stand-off with bids at 122 and offers at 127 to 128. Boxed beef was higher with choice up 1.13 and select up .31. Pork cutout value was down .92 on Thursday. We’re getting a great response for our Ag Leaders Webinar this month which will feature a look at the soy complex with Rich Nelson, Frank La Placa, and our special guest, Al Ambrose. We hope you can join us. Registration is free and open to everyone.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    +5 1/2
Nov Beans   +2
Dec Wheat   +12 3/4
Dec Cattle +.07
Dec Hogs    +.27
Dec Dlr     +.08
Dec S+P     -2.25
Nov Crude   -.09
Dec Gold    -11.60
 
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday Dec Wheat continued its range bound trade. At this point, this market can be approached from two ways. One is to buy and sell against the highs and lows and use a stop to prevent a break out, or use a stop and get stopped into the market on any type of breakout from the range…Frank La Placa
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
There’s no way to spin Thursday morning’s export sales report as good for corn. Sales of 166,700 tonnes are 87% under last year’s level. From the five year average, they are down a similar 87%! USDA thinks total year sales will end only 25% under last year.
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

 

 

Optimism For Soybean Exports

Oct 18, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 18, 2012 at 5.10 am. Grains are higher led by soybeans on hope of aggressive export sales this week. Lack of cash movement is providing underlying support for all grains. Last year corn supplies were tight in August and September, just like this year. In 2011 ethanol producers waited until new crop corn was available then started production aggressively. Right now we have new crop corn in the system but ethanol producers are not responding. Wednesday’s report showed production of 797,000 barrels per day for last week. That was down 12% from a year ago. USDA thinks production will fall 10% from last year. Though year to date ethanol production is 7% under last year, we are now slipping below that pace. The Renewable Fuels Association economist who was guest presenter on the Monthly Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar believes the USDA could reduce corn usage for ethanol down to 4.2 billion bushel. Reuters reported from London that Brazil is ramping up sugar ethanol production of which they look to increase exports by 30% next year. The US will be the target for most of that increase. Weekly export sales will be out at 7:30 this morning. Trade estimates are wheat 250-375 tmt, corn 100-300 tmt, soybeans 650-850 tmt, soymeal 150-250 tmt and soyoil 10-15 tmt. The spread between Brazil and US corn is about $40.00 per tonne for our Pacific Rim buyers. Brazil weather is as advertised, still on the wet side in the south with more beneficial rains in the north. Argentina is getting more rain. China economic data released overnight shows 3rd quarter growth of 7.4%. That is the slowest growth since early 2009. The livestock traders are waiting for the Cattle-on-Feed report tomorrow afternoon. Trade average guesses are On-Feed 97.8%, Placed 85%, and Marketed 89.8%. The marketing figure for September and the lower slaughter during the first few week of October have traders concerned about a backup of cattle on the horizon. Product strength has improved packer margins but a larger slaughter could turn things sour quickly. Wednesday boxed beef was firm, with choice up .61 and select up .20. Cash cattle are at a standstill. The firm product has feedlot looking for more money this week. Pork cutout values were .92 higher. Bull spread has been the feature in a quiet market in hogs. We’re getting a great response for our Ag Leaders Webinar this month which will feature a look at the soy complex with Rich Nelson, Frank La Placa, and our special guest, Al Ambrose. We hope you can join us. Registration is free and open to everyone.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    +6
Nov Beans   +19 1/2
Dec Wheat   +7 3/4
Dec Cattle +.37
Dec Hogs    +.15
Dec Dlr     +.05
Dec S+P     -.50
Nov Crude   -.02
Dec Gold    -4.60
 
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday Dec Lean Hogs pushed to higher levels again reconfirming the uptrend. What makes yesterday’s trade so impressive is that we closed on the highs. Until we see a close below $76.55 this market is in a very strong uptrend and its continuation should not surprise…Frank La Placa
 
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Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The director of the American Soybean Association’s office for Indonesia indicated their state buying agency, Bulog, is interested in government to government purchases of US soybeans. No specific quantities have been announced. He suggested high prices would cut 2012 US imports to 1.6 million tonnes.
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Grains Higher in Quiet Trade

Oct 17, 2012

 

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 17, 2012 at 5.10 am. Grains are higher as traders wait for fresh news. Farmers are wrapping up harvest and have little interest in selling. We heard of some movement of soybeans in Minnesota yesterday. The elevators and resellers are taking advantage of basis improvement. China bought 295,000 tonnes of Canadian spring wheat. Trade is also watching for results from an Algerian wheat tender. There has been more talk about Iran threatening to dump crude oil in the Strait of Hormuz in an attempt to get back at the surrounding Arab countries who are participating in the embargo. South American crop size is being raised by a well-known crop scout. Lack of demand from exports has traders concerned as sales have been running at 89% below last year levels in corn over the last 4 weeks. Today we will see the ethanol production numbers and tomorrow weekly export sales data will be released. Funds were neutral yesterday in corn and soybeans. We still have technical support at 7.32 in December corn. November soybeans closing below 15.00 are not adding confidence to bulls. Harvest progress is causing some analysts to call for a seasonal bottom in for corn and soybeans. We will let the market tell us which direction it will be going. Boxed beef was higher again Tuesday with choice up 1.14 and select up 1.66. The reduced slaughter is supporting beef values. Pork cutout value was down .07 on Tuesday. Weaker grain futures are causing traders to liquidate some of their bear spreads in the Lean Hogs.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    +4
Nov Beans   +1 3/4
Dec Wheat   +5 1/4
Dec Cattle +.20
Dec Hogs    -.02
Dec Dlr     -.30
Dec S+P     +.75
Nov Crude   +.06
Dec Gold    +3.70
 
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Dec Live Cattle has established the 10/12 low of $125.35 as the new pivot low that this market must close below in order to reconfirm the downtrend. Until this market does make a dramatic move outside of its sideways range, further consolidation is expected…Frank La Placa
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The China National Grains and Oils Information Center raised its estimate of Chinese corn production from 197 million tonnes to 201. 2012 Soybean production was lowered from 13.0 to 12.8 million tones. For perspective, USDA currently estimates those two crops at 200.0 and 12.6 mt.
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

 

Watch Chart Patterns for Price Outlook

Oct 16, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 16, 2012 at 4:35 am. Grains are higher on short covering and the turnaround Tuesday psychology. With weak closes on Friday and Monday, traders are watching key chart points. Dec corn has support at 7.32, wheat at 8.38 and November soybeans closed below the 15.00 support area and now projects to 14.56. There has been continuing reports of better than expected soybean yields from our producers in the North and South. Weather is improving in Brazil and Argentina has more than adequate rain. The USDA showed producers worked long hours last week as corn harvest advance by 10% to 79% complete and soybean harvest went from 58% to 71% complete. Wheat planting was right on the average of 71% done. End-users are buying hand to mouth as price trend is down. However, basis is suggesting farmers have locked the bin doors waiting for higher prices. In our weekly broker meeting, we discussed the export situation for 2012. The USDA is looking for 25% reduction of corn export from 2011 to 2012. In 2011 corn exports were at a 14 year low. Currently year to date corn exports are 39% below a year ago. And if you look at the last four weeks (since prices have rallied) we are 89% below a year ago. Currently US gulf corn is 8.39 per bushel and Argentina corn is 7.08. The remaining question is: What will it take to buy US demand back? Livestock producers get a breath of air with lower corn prices but it is going to take a realignment of cattle and hog prices to make these operations profitable. Boxed beef values were sharply higher on Monday with choice up 2.29 and select up 1.85. Pork cutout values were up .83. Hog spreads have been a feature in the pork complex and we expect corn price to lead the spreads. Call your Allendale Rep to discuss strategies for trading interest. Allendale 25th Annual Conference is going held January 25 and 26, 2013. You can register today.
 
 
Markets as of 4:35 AM
Dec Corn    +4 3/4
Nov Beans   +3 1/4
Dec Wheat   +4 3/4
Dec Cattle +.15
Dec Hogs    -.07
Dec Dlr     -.15
Dec S+P     +.75
Nov Crude   -.29
Dec Gold    +1.40
 
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday Nov Soybeans reconfirmed the downtrend with a new low of $14.85 ¾ this is the lowest that we have traded since early July. In order to negate the downtrend and raise the odd of a base and reversal we would need to see a close above the 10/09 $15.74…Frank La Placa 
 
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Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Reuters newswire confirms Friday’s rumors of higher corn imports. The newswire suggests 600,000 tonnes of Argentine corn was purchased last week by Southeast livestock operations. This comes on top of the 750,000 tonnes purchased in the previous month. The first shipment is expected to arrive in Wilmington, North Carolina on November 12. Continued shipments will be spread out through next May. The trade suggests USDA’s 75 million bushel corn import forecast could rise to 118.
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Looking For Feed For The Bulls

Oct 15, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 15, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grains are lower as a risk-off attitude dominates the commodity markets. Closing out the week on Friday left little support for the bulls. The corn market needed a close above 7.68 to have the technical traders stay friendly. There were rumors late last week that another 1 million tonnes of corn was going to be imported into the livestock feeding areas of North Carolina. Rich Nelson compared prices of US corn at Toledo $7.78, US corn at the gulf $8.39 and Argentina corn at $7.08 a bushel. It is pretty easy to see why corn is being brought in. They normally pull grain from the eastern Midwest which is some of the hardest hit areas by the drought. The USDA made no adjustments for corn imports on the October S+D report. This week should be wetter in most of the Midwest but with only 15 to 20% of harvest left it will not be a major factor. South America should see more rain in Brazil but Argentina maybe getting a little more than needed, although it is early in the planting season. About 15% of the Australia wheat growing area is being affected by dryness. NOPA crush report is out later this morning and the monthly Cattle on Feed will be released on Friday. Weaker grain prices should provide support for feeder cattle. While hog futures may see some further adjustments in Dec-Jun spreads. Boxed beef closed mixed on Friday, choice up .36 and select down .28. Pork cutout was down .66.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    -11 1/2
Nov Beans   -31 1/2
Dec Wheat   -5
Dec Cattle steady-Lower
Dec Hogs    Steady-Lower
Dec Dlr     +.04
Dec S+P     +6.50
Nov Crude   -.25
Dec Gold    -11.80
 
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Dec Corn gave back a considerable amount of Thursday’s gains on Friday. I still feel that while we have seen strong interest from buyers on report days that lack of follow through buying implies that this market is still in a downtrend. I feel that these recovery attempts provide excellent opportunities for producers to price in unprotected bushels…Frank La Placa
 
 
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Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Despite what is a very poor export pace compared to USDA expectations, the government only lowered US wheat exports by 50 million bushels. It is clear the government is concerned about available corn supplies and assumes US wheat may play a role in filling world feed needs later on.
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Grain Data Cools Optimism for Livestock Producers

Oct 12, 2012

Good morning! Paul Georgy here with early morning comments for Oct. 12, 2012, at 5:10 am. Grains are lower on profit taking after yesterday’s bullish reaction. The USDA served up data yesterday for both sides of the line. The statistics branch increased planted acres and harvested acres by more than trade was expecting. The USDA put the harvested acre percentage at 90.5% when the trade was expecting 88%. We would expect further adjustments in harvested acres as we go forward. On the demand side, we did not see much change except in the exports and the beginning stocks. As prices move higher, we are likely to see more consumption cuts in upcoming reports. Soybean data was in line with trade expectations. Cash markets will dictate movement. It will likely take a rally to entice farmers to open bin doors going into the end of year.

Now that the USDA data has been released, traders will be focusing on macroeconomic issues and weather in South America. The tight US supplies of corn and soybeans will make weather in the Southern Hemisphere a market mover as we go through their growing season. Weakening of a key El Niño feature has the Australian Bureau of Meteorology already saying that the odds of an El Niño occurring have diminished considerably. The lack of an El Niño could raise the odds of adverse growing conditions in South America. Chinese and European financial instability will shape traders' confidence (especially funds).

Technical traders now have a reason to be optimistic in corn. Can Dec corn close above the 7.68 level for the week? This could suggest a seasonal low has been made. November soybeans have consolidated this week but have more work to do to suggest the seasonal low is in. Export sales estimates for this morning’s report are: corn 300 to 400 tmt, soybeans 750 to 850 tmt and wheat 350 to 550 tmt. Livestock producers have been thrown another curveball, as higher feed cost means larger losses. The fourth quarter of 2012 has sizeable losses projected for hog producers. Bear spreads in lean hog futures are telling the story. Choice beef was up 0.33 and Select up 0.40. Pork cutout value was up 1.04 on Thursday.

 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    -4
Nov Beans   -13 1/4
Dec Wheat   -6 1/2
Dec Cattle -.02
Dec Hogs    +.25
Dec Dlr     -.19
Dec S+P     +2.75
Nov Crude   -.16
Dec Gold    -.90
 
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday Dec Live Cattle suffered a short term loss of bullish momentum that likely tips the odds that we make a push for the 9/27 pivot low of $123.95. A close below the pivot low would reconfirm the downtrend…Frank La Placa
 
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Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
With lower beginning stocks, almost no change to production, and only a moderate adjustment to exports, USDA lowered ending stocks from 733 million to 619. That was lower than the average guess of 648. That ending stock number would imply a move to $8.00 on December corn. We don’t believe it will happen but that is what the numbers would suggest.
 
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

 

Soybeans Higher, Corn Lower Going into Report

Oct 11, 2012

 

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 11, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grains are mixed with beans up 15 to 20 and corn down 1 to 2 cents. A reminder: the open outcry session for grains opens today at 7:20 due to the USDA report at 7:30. Key trade estimates are: yield for corn at 122.9 bpa and soybeans at 37.0 bpa. Harvested acres estimate for corn is 86.136 which is 1.225 million acres less than USDA Sept number. Ending Stocks estimates for corn and soybeans are 648 and 134 million bushel, respectively. This would suggest tighter corn supplies and larger soybean supplies. The report will no doubt have something for both the bulls and bears. I will be sharing details from the report on Allendale "Morning Coffee" on YouTube shortly after the data is released. Once the report reaction is completed, traders will be focusing on world economic conditions. The IMF is holding their annual meeting in Tokyo, Japan this week. The comments coming out of that conference have trader’s concerned about the economic stability in the EU and the slowdown in China’s economy. Livestock markets are nervous this morning as their bottom line outlook will be impacted by the USDA report. Futures strength and product value improvement is suggesting a higher cash trade for cattle this week. Boxed beef is weaker, choice down .22 and select down .37. Pork cutout value was up .96.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    -1
Nov Beans   +18 1/2
Dec Wheat   -6 3/4
Dec Cattle +.32
Dec Hogs    -.52
Dec Dlr     +.03
Dec S+P     +4.75
Nov Crude   +.70
Dec Gold    +5.90
 
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday Dec Lean Hogs broke out to new highs which reconfirms the uptrend. In order to break the uptrend and increase the odds for a reversal lower, we will need to see a close below the $75.80 level which has been confirmed as key support…Frank La Placa 
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Harvest of the US corn crop advanced from 54% complete to now 69% in the latest week. This remains a record pace. The five year average and last year at this time are 28% and 29% respectively. Traders were looking for a 70% pace this week.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

 

Soybean Stocks Likely to Rise on Report

Oct 10, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 10, 2012 at 5:00 am. Grains are mostly lower in a quiet overnight session. Trade is expecting soybean yields to increase from the September USDA number of 35.7 bpa to 37.0 bpa on this report. Total production should jump to near 2.950 billion bushels. Demand is expected to increase which would leave ending stocks around 135 versus last month 115. Allendale’s studies are in agreement with trade average estimates. Where can there be a surprise in soybean data? The yield could be larger than expected as producer yield results coming into our office are much better than they were expecting. Wheat could see some adjustments in demand. Currently the USDA is expecting a 14% increase in exports compared to last year and wheat exports are running 8% below last year’s pace. China will be auctioning another 400,000 tonnes of soybeans from their reserve on Thursday. On the export front for corn, as of yesterday, US corn was priced at $318 per tonne, Argentina $267, Brazil $235 and Ukraine $227. This is why we expect USDA to reduce corn exports on the upcoming report. US farmers have 69% of the corn crop harvested and 58% of soybeans harvested compared to an average of 28% and 40% respectively. Winter wheat plantings are 57% compared to last year’s 53%. Reduced slaughter last week is supporting beef prices. Boxed beef was higher on Wednesday with choice up .63 and select up .87. This week’s production by packers should help narrow the gap in margins. Hog prices have rallied in line with seasonal patterns which could cause some weakness going into fall. Pork cutout values were up 1.40 on Wednesday. This month Allendale’s Ag Leaders Webinar is October 30.
 
 
Markets as of 5:00 AM
Dec Corn    - 1/4
Nov Beans   -3 3/4
Dec Wheat   +4 1/4
Dec Cattle +.12
Dec Hogs    +.57
Dec Dlr     +.12
Dec S+P     -2.50
Nov Crude   -.75
Dec Gold    -1.40
 
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday Nov. Soybeans failed to maintain the highs that were put in early in the day. I still feel that the recovery attempt is still in order as he have slowed down our simple down trend of lower highs and lower lows. Unless we see a break of the 10/04 low of $15.04 I feel that the recovery attempt is valid…Frank La Placa
 
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
South American analysis firm, Celeres, estimates Brazil soybean planting is 3% complete. This is right on the 4% pace normally seen at this time. The group estimates forward sales of the spring 2013 harvest at 47%. That far surpasses the normal 20% rate at this time. Producers in much of Brazil’s Center and Northern areas would like a little more rain.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Corn Ending Stocks Could Remain Unchanged

Oct 09, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 9, 2012 at 4:30 am. Grains are higher on a short covering bounce ahead of Thursday’s report. Due to a partial holiday yesterday with government offices closed we should get the harvest progress this afternoon. Trade is expecting over 70% corn harvest completed and over 60% on soybeans harvested. This week should provide dry weather conditions across most of the Midwest and excellent harvest progress. The markets are waiting for the USDA report on Thursday morning. Trade average estimates are out with corn harvested acres at 86.136 million acres, 1.25 million acres less than the USDA Sept. number. Yield is estimated at 122.9, up 0.1 bushels than Sept. Leaving ending stocks at only 648 compared to USDA’s 733 million bushel in Sept., Allendale’s estimate is close to the trade average for harvested acreage (86.060) and yield (123.3). We disagree with the ending stocks dropping as much as the trade estimates. We think the USDA will keep ending stocks for corn near unchanged at 731 million bushel. It is likely USDA will drop demand nearly as much as they drop production. The Allendale Advisory Report has more discussion on this subject. Macro markets, Goldman roll and commercial spreading will dictate volatility into Thursday’s report. Lean Hog futures are running into a seasonal period where supplies increase and demand wanes. Pork cutout values were .02 higher on Monday. With last week’s reduced slaughter, packers should be able to improve boxed beef values. Monday choice beef was .58 and select was up .72. Cash markets could trade steady to higher before the week is over. Stay in touch with Allendale Advisory Report.
 
 
Markets as of 4:30 AM
Dec Corn    +2 1/4
Nov Beans   +7
Dec Wheat   +5 3/4
Oct Cattle +.22
Oct Hogs    +.17
Dec Dlr     +.26
Sep S+P     -3.00
Nov Crude   +.40
Dec Gold    -2.80
 
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Dec. Wheat is trading at the low end of the sideways range that it has been stuck in for the last 3mos. Unless we see a breakout through either the highs or lows in Dec Wheat, this market poses too much of a potential whipsaw risk to conclude a direction…Frank La Placa
 
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Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The director general of the Iraqi Grain Board has purchased 1.76 million tonnes of wheat so far this year. That is down from last year’s total at this time of 2.7 mt. They currently have coverage out for the next five months. This buyer said he expects prices to fall now that planting is underway in the US and Canada.
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Profit Taking Ahead of Report

Oct 08, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 8, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grains are lower on profit taking and a stronger dollar. Today’s weekly harvest progress report should put corn harvest at 70% compared to the normal of 32% and soybeans could be 60% complete with 41% average. Traveling from northern Illinois to St Louis this past weekend we saw very little harvesting being done on Saturday but Sunday everybody was running in northern IL. Southern IL was at a standstill for several days due to too much rain. Corn left in the field looked rough in southern IL but soybean yields were hopeful even in some of the double crop fields. Talking to dairy framers in southern IL, I was surprised to learn that they felt they had enough old crop corn on hand to carry them through May of next year before using drought damaged 2012 corn. The USDA report on Thursday morning will be important to traders. Yield and harvested acres in corn seem to be the key numbers of interest. Weather forecasts for Brazil over the next 5 days have put in a little more moisture compared to last week. China will be back at work after last week’s holiday. Will they be in buying more soybeans? Livestock will be led by corn prices to start the week. Boxed beef values were weak on Friday. Choice was down 1.36 and select was down 1.45. Pork cutout was down .68. Livestock futures could start the day steady to lower.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    -6 1/2
Nov Beans   -110 3/4
Dec Wheat   +1 3/4
Oct Cattle Steady-Lower
Oct Hogs    Steady-Lower
Dec Dlr     +.26
Sep S+P     -5.50
Nov Crude   -1.10
Dec Gold    -8.90
 
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Corn settled on a somewhat weak note today as it finished near the week’s lows of 7.46. This could be a pause in the recent strength or a sign that a corrective bounce is coming to an end.
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The overnight purchase of 10,000 tonnes of Russian corn is quite something. Not only is it a departure from US origin, but it wasn’t even South American. This "first cargo purchase" is symbolic
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Grain Futures Quiet but Lower

Oct 05, 2012

 

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 5, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grains are lower on profit taking after a two day rally. The Labor Department’s unemployment number which will be released at 7:30 this morning will be very important for the grain trader’s attitude. The USDA crop production and Supply and Demand numbers will be out next Thursday. Estimates for soybean yield are rising with some thinking average yield could increase to 40 bushels per acre. Producers have been pleasantly surprised with soybean yield improvement due to late season rain. The $2.85 decline in November futures since Sept 4th is giving reason for traders to think the reversal on Wednesday could be real. The trend is still down but a strong close today could provide further short covering going into next week’s report. Corn yields nationally could see a slight adjustment on the USDA report however harvested acres will be the key number. Demand is really struggling for corn out of the US. South Korea made a symbolic purchase of corn from far eastern Russia overnight. US weekly corn sales for the last 3 weeks are 84% below last year’s pace. The price of US corn is 10 to 15 dollars higher than Brazil or Argentina. Informa will be releasing their estimates for corn and soybean production at 10:30 today. The Buenos Aries Grain Exchange is estimating 4.5% increase in corn acreage by Argentina farmers this year. Live cattle traded yesterday at 124 which is 1 to 2 higher than last week. Cattle traders are concerned about possible deliveries which has caused some profit taking late in the session on Thursday. Market ready hog supplies have tightened and packers are fighting to get enough supply for a Saturday processing. Boxed beef was mixed with choice down up .65 and select down .44. pork cutout values were up 1.84.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    -3
Nov Beans   -1
Dec Wheat   -3
Oct Cattle -.17
Oct Hogs    +.15
Dec Dlr     +.02
Sep S+P     +1.25
Nov Crude   -.70
Dec Gold    -4.70
 
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Dec Live Cattle is trying to recover from its momentum failure last week. We are not seeing much strength in the latest recovery attempt which leads me to believe that we are going to see another leg lower in this move. A break below the 9/27 $123.95 low could expose this market to a retest of the contract lows…Frank La Placa
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
A Reuters newswire poll of Australian based analysts found a wheat production expectation at 21.44 million tonnes. That would be another decline from the Australian government’s latest 22.5 mt estimate. Disappointing rains in the past two weeks was the reason. USDA will be revising its 26 mt estimate lower on next Thursday’s supply/demand report.
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

 

Dollar Down, Grains Higher

Oct 04, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 4, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grains are higher as the Euro firms against the US dollar. China is on holiday for the balance of the week. Traders are looking ahead to next Thursday’s USDA Crop Production and S&D data. Many are concerned the USDA will jump up the soybean production. Another analyst estimate will be released on Friday. Yield results from our clients and producers find them pleasantly surprised with their bean harvest returns. Weekly export sales numbers will be released at 7:30 this morning. Trade average estimates are for corn 200 to 400 tmt, soybeans 700 to 900 tmt, meal 155 to 300 tmt, bean oil 5 to 20 tmt and wheat 400 to 600 tmt. Demand has slowed down considerably in exports over recent weeks. Now domestic usage decline is being confirmed with the ethanol demand data released yesterday a full 9% less than same period a year ago. Rich Nelson has been discussing the potential changes the USDA could make on next week’s report in the Allendale Advisory Report. To give a brief summary, he is looking for a potential increase in yield with a drop in harvested acres. This could lead to a potential lower total production of corn. Technical traders seem to be moving prices in grains which is causing some of the choppiness as harvest is wrapping up in many areas. Weather conditions in South America haave improved for soybean production but there still remains a long growing season ahead and any disturbance to a perfect season will create volatility. Livestock traders like the idea of cheaper grain prices but struggle with finding positive margins in 4th quarter. Cash market interest for cattle is quiet. Boxed beef was firmer on Wednesday with choice up .21 and select up .77. Pork cutout values were down .79 after the sharp increase on Tuesday. Thank you, Steve for a great job while I was in Germany the last few weeks. Stay in touch with Allendale Advisory on the web.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    +4 1/2
Nov Beans   +12
Dec Wheat   +3
Oct Cattle -.70
Oct Hogs    -.07
Dec Dlr     -.25
Sep S+P     +5.00
Nov Crude   +.61
Dec Gold    +11.10
 
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday Nov Crude Oil had a decisive move to the downside; taking out the 9/26 $88.95 pivot low in the process. This move reinstates the downtrend and does open up the possibility for a move to the $78.88 low…Frank La Placa 
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Financial market participants are dialing down their expectations for China’s economic growth. A portfolio manager for DoubleLine Capital LC indicated, "The big bull period for China is behind us. We won’t see double digit growth rates again." This also has implications for outside money’s view of commodity demand (soybeans) valid or not.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Grains under Pressure as Harvest Continues

Oct 03, 2012

 

Good Morning! Steve Georgy with early morning comments for October 3, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grains are coming under pressure once again. This is the third day in a row beans and wheat are selling off but today corn is following suit as well. Beans continue to find weakness as we continue to hear better than expected yields and better conditions in South America. Beans also have a bearish technical picture that keeps sellers selling on any rallies. Taking out 1550 yesterday and closing below it keeps the downtrend intact. Beans may target the gap near 1480 next if we are unable to rebound in the next few days. FC Stone released yield estimates after the close yesterday. They have bean yields almost 3 bushels above USDA. Their current number is 38.2 bu/acre up from 36.7 last estimate. USDA is currently at 35.3 bu/acre. They have corn yields increasing as well to 123.9 bu/acre. This is up from their last estimate of 121.4 and USDA sitting at 122.8. The trade was expecting steady to lower yields so this number was more of a surprise. Informa will release estimates on Friday during trading hours. The expectations for exports this week will most likely remain low since China has been on Holiday and we are just not seeing demand pick up for corn. The rally due to supply issues has probably been priced in and demand will have to pick up for prices to go much higher from here. The outside markets have had little impact on grains this week and once again remain quiet this morning. The global economic picture hasn’t improved much but it just hasn’t been talked about. This has given most of the world’s stock markets a boost this week. Cattle closed stronger yesterday with traders hoping to see strong cash trade this week after $3 lower last week. Wholesale beef found a recovery yesterday with box beef finishing higher. Choice was up $1.30 to 190.49 and select increased .14 to 176.76.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    -9
Nov Beans   -16 3/4
Dec Wheat   -8 1/2
Oct Cattle +.25
Oct Hogs    +.70
Dec Dlr     +.03
Sep S+P     +.25
Nov Crude   -.55
Dec Gold    +5.30
 
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Dec Lean Hogs have clearly broken out to the upside and have established the trend as up. The market has defined the 9/28 $73.40 low as the new pivot low that this market must break in order to negate the uptrend…Frank La Placa
 
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Brazil: The Trade Ministry reports corn exports in September set a record at 3.15 million tonnes. The previous record was the August level of 2.76 mt. The Ministry had reported August exports to the US of 43,999 tonnes (one cargo). No country specific data is available for September.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

 

Beans and Wheat Still Pulling Back

Oct 02, 2012

Good Morning! Steve Georgy with early morning comments for October 2, 2012 at 5:10 am. The grains are finding a similar start to the morning. Corn is finding support with beans and wheat under pressure once again. Corn was the strongest yesterday with spreaders unwinding positions after the friendly USDA numbers last week. Funds were buying beans and wheat, selling corn going into the report. Corn harvest is now 54% complete with beans 41% compete before this week. We should continue to see harvest chug along at a good clip. The forecast is projected to give producers another good week to get work done. The grains will most likely continue to find harvest pressure on rallies. Bean yields continue to come in higher than expected even after a significant drought across the Corn Belt. The trade continues to talk about the possibility of seeing USDA raise yields on the next report. This comes at a time were Argentina and Brazil are expected to get 1-2 inches of rain over the next 24 hours and looking at another 1-2 inches of rain Thursday and Friday. This will greatly improve conditions and should improve the bean outcome. USDA has Brazil looking at a record 81 million tonne crop and Brazil’s Celeres just increased projections to 79.08 million tonnes. Not only are traders seeing bigger yields but demand should be light this week with China on Holiday. Mexico announced yesterday that they are looking to purchase 100,000 tonnes of corn from an optional origin. This is concerning if we continue to lose sales due to high prices. The Agricultural Secretary, Tom Vilsack said yesterday "The United States will not run out of corn despite drought losses and tight beginning stocks." This should cap any significant rally corn may have from these levels. The dollar once again today is not influencing the grains or the macro picture in any way.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    -1/4
Nov Beans   -15
Dec Wheat   -7 ¾
Oct Cattle -.25
Oct Hogs    +.25
Dec Dlr     -.07
Sep S+P     +6.75
Nov Crude   +.21
Dec Gold    -2.4
 
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Nov Soybeans reconfirmed the downtrend with yesterday’s failure at the $16.00 level. We seem to be building a support level at $15.60 with the last three days low falling right at the this level. If we do see a close below $15.60 this will open up the Soybean market to further losses…Frank La Placa
 
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Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The latest quarter finished out with strong gains for commodities. The CRB index, a broad measure of overall commodity prices, rose 8.8%. For the grains particularly, December corn rose 19%, November soybeans gained 12%, and December wheat picked up 16%.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Mixed Trade after Friendly USDA Numbers on Friday

Oct 01, 2012

 

Good Morning! Steve Georgy with early morning comments for October 1, 2012 at 5:10 am. Corn is finding some follow through buying this morning with beans and wheat giving back some of the gains. Corn had a very strong close on Friday and gave the bulls some food until the Supply and Demand numbers come out on October 11th. Beans and wheat on the other hand are pulling back due to South America’s planting potential this week and the rains in Australia. South America will see a strong week for planting and as the weather maps stand now they should see rains follow right behind. This is much better conditions than what was projected over the last few weeks. Australia received some rain in their much needed areas and will most likely prevent a disaster for their wheat crop. This afternoon we will get a report on harvest pace. We should see more than 50% harvested in beans and maybe closer to 2/3 complete for corn by the end of the week. The weather should allow for farmers to continue at the good clip. We should continue to see rallies at this point limited due to continued harvest pressure. Corn still needs to find demand and with the big jump in price, it could be hard at these levels. On the other hand, corn should find good support on breaks with end users buying dips now that harvest is more than half over and we typically see the cash market strengthen. We continue to hear good bean yields and could see USDA revise their yield number higher late next week. This may continue to put pressure on beans as this report gets closer. Corn may be a different story. We have been hearing mixed yields and could keep traders focusing on the bullish quarterly stock numbers put out last Friday. Volume and volatility may slow down this week with China off for a holiday break. Traders are also talking about "new month, new money". Are we going to see new fund money allocated to the grains this week, helping to support prices? The dollar is lower this morning but could keep traders looking at the big picture as concern for the global economy continues to grow. This could be a factor that needs to be watched closely this week.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    +2 3/4
Nov Beans   -15
Dec Wheat   -11 1/4
Dec Dlr     -.17
Sep S+P     +5.25
Nov Crude   -.25
Dec Gold    -.60
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Fridays impressive rally in Dec Corn has established the $7.11 low as the end to this leg of the seasonal decline. Due to the markets recovery I still feel that unless we see a break of the 8/21 $8.40 high this market is only in an initial correction in a larger bear market decline…Frank La Placa
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The quarterly Grain Stocks report found there was 988 million bushels of old crop corn around as of September 1. USDA had previously estimated 1.181 billion in old crop stocks earlier this estimate. Today’s number is THE survey estimate. Today’s number is even clearly lower than the average guess of 1.113 billion.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

 

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