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December 2012 Archive for The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Holiday Short Covering Rally

Dec 21, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for December 21, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are higher as traders even positions ahead of the holidays. The weak technical picture and poor demand for US grains had funds reducing longs. Yesterday they sold an estimated 10,000 soybean contracts, 6,000 corn contracts, and 4,000 wheat contracts. As we close out this week, traders will be preparing for the holiday-shortened week ahead. Demand has been a huge driver of the grain markets. This week China cancelled 840,000 tonnes of soybeans and another 120,000 were cancelled by unknown buyers.  Brazilian growing areas received good coverage of precipitation with normal temps in the forecast. Argentina should see some drier weather over the next two weeks. Argentine plantings are still behind last year by 4% in soybeans and 9% in corn with 77% and 74% completed, respectively. Disappointing weekly corn sales and a negative technical picture is continuing to weigh on the corn futures. It will take a report of some confirmed sales to convince buyers to come back to the table. The March contract tested the gap left from early July trade. A close below the 6.83 level in March corn would be a severe blow to the bulls. The water level is expected to rise sharply by Christmas morning due to the recent rain/snow and the release of water from Carlyle Lake. Basis along the river system was off 5 cents yesterday. The fiscal cliff negotiation will be in the spotlight going into December 31st. Cash cattle traded at 126 in KS which was 1.50 to 2.00 higher than last week. Boxed beef was mixed with choice down 1.49 and select up .25.  December Cattle on Feed report will be released today at 2:00 pm. Snow fall across IA will hamper movement of hogs but packers say they have enough inventory to get through the week. Pork cutout was down .64 on Thursday. Grain markets close at noon on Monday and livestock will close at 12:15. Allendale Office will close at 12:30 on Monday, Christmas Eve. The Ag markets will reopen on Wednesday morning at 9:05 for livestock and 9:30 for grains. We will resume producing the "Wake-up Call" on January 3, 2013. You will be able to get Allendale market commentary by listening to the "Morning Coffee" or by subscribing to the Allendale Advisory Report. We thank you for following us in 2012 and all of us at Allendale want to wish our readers a Happy Holiday Season and a Prosperous New Year!
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
  • Mar Corn    +4 1/2
  • Jan Beans   +13 1/2
  • Mar Wheat   +3 1/2
  • Feb Cattle  -.05
  • Feb Hogs    +.10
  • Mar Dlr     -.10
  • Mar S&P     -18.75
  • Jan Crude   +1.58
  • Feb Gold    +.80
 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

Year End Selling on Holiday Volume

Dec 20, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for December 20, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are lower on follow through selling. The sharp sell-off is driven by fund liquidation, technical selling and poor demand. Rich Nelson, Allendale’s Chief Strategist says, "We have clear unavoidable problems with old crop corn demand. And no matter what you plug in for new crop it would lead to a huge increase in supply. Although this market has fallen below our 7.15 target for nearby corn, this move is not out of bounds in the big picture." Funds sold an estimated net 13,000 corn contracts, 2,000 wheat contracts and 9,000 soybean contracts on Wednesday. Informa has estimated 2013 corn acres at 99.02 compared to their previous 97.7 million acres. They reduced soybean acres slightly to 78.96 versus 80.1 million acres last month.  Cotton acres were increased by 2 million compared to last estimate. Weekly export estimates for this morning’s 7:30 release are: corn 250 to 550 tmt, soybeans 650 to 850 tmt, soymeal 200 to 300 tmt, soyoil 20 to 40 tmt and wheat 450 to 650 tmt. Shipping rates decline slightly as water levels rise on the Mississippi. Corn and soybean basis was unchanged late yesterday on the biggest decline in futures since mid-November. Farmer selling is nil. Grain and livestock markets will close early on Monday and reopen on Wednesday morning at 9:30 and 9:05, respectively. USDA Dec Cattle on Feed report will be released at 2:00 pm on Friday. Trader average estimates are: On Feed 93.4%, Placements 91.2% and Marketed 100.2%. We will be watching for results of the winter storm moving across the central US. How much impact will it have on movement of livestock and product to and from packing plants?  Boxed beef was mixed with choice down .38 and select up 1.49. Pork cutout values were down .64 on Wednesday. Tomorrow morning will be the last "Wake-up Call" this year. We will resume producing the "Wake-up Call" on January 3, 2013. You will be able to get Allendale market commentary by listening to the "Morning Coffee" or by subscribing to the Allendale Advisory Report. All of us at Allendale want to wish our readers a Happy Holiday Season and a Prosperous New Year!
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
  • Mar Corn    -6 3/4
  • Jan Beans   -11 1/2
  • Mar Wheat   -11 1/4
  • Feb Cattle  -.10
  • Feb Hogs    +.10
  • Mar Dlr     -.10
  • Mar S&P     -.50
  • Jan Crude   +1.58
  • Feb Gold    +1.30
 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

Egypt and Taiwan Looking for Wheat

Dec 19, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for December 19, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are mixed with corn and soybeans lower and wheat higher. Taiwan is tendering for 75,000 tonnes of US or European wheat. Egypt is tendering for a couple of cargoes of wheat. The US should have a chance as wheat is now priced $22 below its nearest competitor. Corn is struggling to find a buyer of US corn as prices are still $25 to $30 above SA. We would expect to see some improvement in sales after the holidays. The snow storm set to move into the Midwest by this weekend is expected to provide some well need moisture to the wheat growing area.  Informa will be updating their production estimates for 2013 this morning. Mississippi River traffic will be reduced to 8 hours per day as the scraping of the waterway begins. The weak US dollar index has not provided much support for the grains. Demand is the most important driver as seen yesterday. The cancellation of soybean purchases by China was enough reason for traders to liquidate long positions. Winter weather watch for a major snow storm to move from west to east across the cattle feeding and hog production areas has traders unsettled. A short work week due to the holiday has packers willing to wait out the storm. Boxed beef was mixed at the close yesterday, choice was down .93 and select was up .51. Pork cutout values were up 1.13 on Tuesday. Thanks to all who joined the Monthly Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar last night instead of watching "The Voice."
Markets as of 5:10 AM
  • Mar Corn    -1 1/2
  • Jan Beans   -4 1/4
  • Mar Wheat   +5 3/4
  • Feb Cattle  +.20
  • Feb Hogs    +.72
  • Mar Dlr     -.22
  • Mar S&P     +3.25
  • Jan Crude   +.40
  • Feb Gold    +4.00
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

Grains are lower in overnight trade

Dec 18, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for December 18, 2012 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are lower on technical selling. Soybeans are leading the market lower on profit taking while strong demand should still be an underlying support factor. Corn and wheat are finding pressure this morning on improving weather conditions in the US and SA. Funds reducing their long positions are a contributor to weakness as holiday trade volume is light. In early January the index funds will be realigning positions which could mean a reduction of long positions in KC wheat. Traders are talking about the quarterly stocks and final production numbers which will be released in January. We will continue to watch headlines for details coming out of Washington and weather changes especially any heat developing in SA. A winter weather advisory supported cattle futures to new highs. The tight supplies of market-ready cattle combined with poor feedlot conditions could provide stronger cash this week. Packer margins are in the red. Choice beef was up .17 and select down .89. Cash hogs are lower starting the week as packers have enough numbers to meet needs going into a holiday week. Pork cutout was up .31 on Monday. Join us for the 25th annual Allendale Ag Leaders Conference January 25th and 26th.
 
Markets as of 5:00 AM
Mar Corn    -5 1/2
Jan Beans   -18 1/2
Mar Wheat   -4 1/2
Feb Cattle +.45
Feb Hogs    +.42
Mar Dlr     -.11
Mar S&P     +4.25
Jan Crude   +.49
Feb Gold    +3.20
 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Expect Light Volume This week

Dec 17, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for December 17, 2012 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are mostly higher on light volume. US rains were heavier than expected this past weekend with more in the forecast. South American weather looks more favorable for Argentina with a drier forecast. Timely rains are expected for Brazil. The positive export news last Thursday has traders already talking about a strong sales number this week for soybeans. Basis is steady to higher at the gulf but Mississippi River water levels have traders very nervous. The CFTC commitment of traders report on Friday showed the funds reducing their long positions in corn by more than 50,000 contracts while the small traders (non-reportable category) ended the week by going long 3,800 contracts. This is the largest long liquidation in corn by funds in 18 months. Managed money funds reduced long positions in wheat by 23,210 and increased long positions in soybeans by 16,613 contracts. Headlines out of Washington will be watched closely as trading volume is likely going to be light as the holidays approach. Stay in close contact with your Allendale representative. Boxed beef prices were up .18 for choice and down .34 for select. Pork cutout values were down 1.60 on Friday. Join us for the 25th annual Allendale Ag Leaders Conference January 25th and 26th.
 
Markets as of 5:00 AM
Mar Corn    - 1/4
Jan Beans   +8 1/2
Mar Wheat   +4
Feb Cattle Steady-Lower
Feb Hogs    Steady-Lower
Mar Dlr     +.01
Mar S&P     +1.00
Jan Crude   -.17
Feb Gold    -5.90
 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Crush Numbers This Morning

Dec 14, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for December 14, 2012 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are mixed with soybeans and wheat higher, corn is lower. Traders are waiting for the NOPA Crush numbers out this morning. Average estimate is 157.4 million bushels versus 153.5 million bushel in October. South Korea FLC buys 130,000 tonnes of corn from the US and South America for April and June delivery. Senator Durbin, Governor Quinn of IL and other industry officials will meet this morning at 8:30 to discuss how the Mississippi River can stay open. Corn basis at the gulf slid another 2 cents yesterday. Funds were sellers of 7,000 corn contracts and 3,000 wheat contracts yesterday. BACE lowers Argentina’s wheat crop by .320 mmt to 9.8 mmt, USDA is projecting an 11.5 mmt crop. Brazil government announced a commitment of $26 billion to modernize its port system. Demand is still the driver in grains as traders wait for year end. Lower corn prices are creating demand for feeder cattle as traders anticipate tight supplies for 2013. Boxed beef prices were mixed on Thursday with choice down 1.27 and select up .34. December lean hog futures last trading day is today. Pork cutout values were up .25 yesterday. February futures are at a premium to December as traders expect hog supplies to tighten in first quarter. Join us for the 25th annual Allendale Ag Leaders Conference January 25th and 26th.
 
Markets as of 5:00 AM
Mar Corn    - 1/4
Jan Beans   +14
Mar Wheat   +3 1/2
Feb Cattle +.02
Feb Hogs    +.25
Mar Dlr     -.05
Mar S&P     +3.50
Jan Crude   -.76
Feb Gold    +1.30
 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Quiet Grains Trade Overnight

Dec 13, 2012

 

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for December 13, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are quiet as traders wait for new news. The Fed Committee announced that "Operation Twist" would end on Dec 31, 2012. Starting in January, the Fed will buy $45 billion of Government Securities. The Fed pledged to keep interest rates low until unemployment falls below 6.5%. This news pressured the dollar and encouraged buying in the grains. Demand has been the key driver for grains in recent days. Ethanol production for last week was below previous week and 12% below last year. Traders are waiting to have USDA announce new corn sales as futures prices fell to the level where world buying was last seen. South Korea passed on US corn yesterday and purchased 238,000 tonnes from South America and South Africa. Gulf corn basis was down 3 cents on Wednesday. This morning’s weekly export sales estimates are: corn 100 to 300 tmt, soybeans 600 to 800 tmt, meal 200 to 350 tmt, bean oil 15 to 40 tmt and wheat 350 to 550 tmt. Mississippi River levels are being watched closely as Dec 28 is now the day water level could drop below critical stage. NOPA crush estimate for tomorrow morning is 145 to 150. December contracts of corn, wheat and lean hogs go off the board on Friday. It was the lean hog futures turn for buying as funds and technicals push markets higher. Cash news was weak but the Fed stimulus was viewed as inflationary to commodities. Cash cattle are still at a standstill with bids at 121 while asking 126 to 127. There were 47 more deliveries and 25 retendered for the second time which means paying 3.00 cwt for retendering. Boxed beef was mixed with choice down .39 and select was up .67. Pork cutout values were down .83.
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Mar Corn    -1 1/4
Jan Beans   + 1/4
Mar Wheat   +2 1/2
Feb Cattle +.22
Feb Hogs    -.02
Mar Dlr     +.12
Mar S&P     -1.50
Jan Crude   -.41
Feb Gold    -21.20
 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

 

Asia and Europe Lower Overnight

Dec 12, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for December 12, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are lower as Asian markets are weaker. Paris wheat has marked a new 7 week low. India will decide by months end whether to expand wheat exports by another 2.5 mmt. The USDA gave corn and soybean traders what they were looking for in the report yesterday. On the other hand, adjustments in wheat demand raised ending stocks by 50 million bushels. That was enough to push futures through technical support and break out of the recent sideways trading range. There are countries looking to buy wheat but are likely to pass the US for other origin. Corn prices at the gulf are still well above South American values. Mississippi River level are very much a concern to shippers and one reason buyers are passing on US grain. Tomorrow morning we have the weekly sales data which likely will not be impressive. Subscribe today to the Allendale Advisory Report to get the full story. The macro markets will be watching for any development in solving the "fiscal cliff" negotiations. We will get the Fed meeting results today which some are expecting an announcement of  fresh stimulus. Weather forecasts are being spun as bearish with one model calling for moisture for the southern plains. Boxed beef values closed higher on Tuesday with choice up 2.27 and select 1.51. The unexpected rally in beef values caused technical and fund buying yesterday. With big deliveries and no cash trade yet this week, traders will need more good news to maintain the rally. Pork cutout values were down .01. Get all the price outlooks for 2013 at the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference on January 25 and 26, 2013. Reserve your seat TODAY
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Mar Corn    -2
Jan Beans   -10 1/2
Mar Wheat   -2 1/2
Feb Cattle +.07
Feb Hogs    -.02
Mar Dlr     -.10
Mar S&P     +2.00
Jan Crude   +.41
Feb Gold    +5.00
 

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.


 

USDA Report Release at 7:30

Dec 11, 2012

USDA Report Release at 7:30
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for December 11, 2012 at 4:45 am. Grain futures are mixed with corn lower and soybeans slightly higher. The grain trading floor opens at 7:20 today and the USDA report will be released at 7:30. Starting in January, the USDA reports will be released at 11:00 am central time. Adjustments are expected to be made by increasing ending stocks in corn and wheat due to poor export demand. Soybeans are expected to have ending stocks reduced because of aggressive purchases from China. We are not expecting major adjustments as USDA typically waits until the January report. Subscribe today to the Allendale Advisory Report to get the full story. Corn export demand is extremely slow to almost non-existent due to price. Currently, US corn is running $.89 to $1.04 above South American values. Mississippi River water level is fluctuating at -1.5 to -2.0 feet. It is expected the river would be shut down for barge traffic if it falls to -5.0. Today we will have to watch for market reactions to the USDA report. Headlines coming out of Washington should be watched closely for direction. Cattle showlists should be larger again this week as numbers will be carried over from last week. Packer margins are still deep in the red. Meat prices will likely struggle as we go into the Christmas Holiday and end of year. Boxed beef on Monday was firmer with choice up 1.10 and select up .54. Pork cutout values were down .59. Get all the price outlooks for 2013 at the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference on January 25 and 26, 2013. Reserve your seat TODAY
 
Markets as of 4:45 AM
Mar Corn    -4 1/2
Jan Beans   +4 3/4
Mar Wheat   -6 1/2
Feb Cattle -.15
Feb Hogs    -.17
Mar Dlr     -.12
Mar S&P     +3.00
Jan Crude   +.49
Feb Gold    -3.50

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Watch Weather and Washington Headlines

Dec 10, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for December 10, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are mixed on follow through trade from Friday. The USDA will release its supply and demand estimates for December tomorrow morning. Traders are looking for an increase in ending stocks for corn and wheat with a reduction in soybeans. The USDA usually does not adjust US production numbers on this report. They wait until January to give us a final production number for grains. Funds were large sellers of corn contracts on Friday as they are estimated to have sold 12,000 contracts. On Friday afternoon the CFTC released the weekly Commitment of Traders report showing managed money increasing longs in corn by 21,923 last week while reducing wheat longs by 8,794. They reduced longs in soybeans by 1,899 contracts. South American weather forecast is for more rain in southern Brazil and drying in Argentina this week. Overall crop conditions are pretty good in South America now. The weather bulls will be watching for above normal temps in the weeks ahead. We expect traders to be adjusting positions going into the USDA Report tomorrow. The talks in Washington will heat up this week as the deadline for the fiscal cliff approaches. Over the weekend IMF Chairman Lagarde made some concerning comments about the world economy if no resolution is found for US economic woes. Japan announced today they were halting Brazilian beef imports due to a BSE link. Brazilian beef amounts to about 0.3% of Japan’s total beef imports. Boxed beef values were lower on Friday as choice was down 1.18 and select was down 1.31. Pork cutout values were down .14. Russia will restrict the imports of US beef and pork. This news could weigh on prices at the opening today. Stay tuned to Allendale Advisory Report to get the full story. Get all the price outlooks for 2013 at the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference on January 25 and 26, 2013. Reserve your seat TODAY
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Mar Corn    -4 1/2
Jan Beans   +1 1/2
Mar Wheat   -4 3/4
Feb Cattle Steady-Lower
Feb Hogs    Steady-Lower
Mar Dlr     +.09
Mar S&P     -3.75
Jan Crude   +.48
Feb Gold    +8.50
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Mar Corn has broken out below the $7.50 level that has supported this market over the last 3 weeks. My next level of support is the $7.12 level…Frank La Placa
 
 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Markets Adjust Before Weekend

Dec 07, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for December 7, 2012 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are mixed with corn lower and soybeans higher. Demand has moved to the "head of line" when looking for a driver of corn prices. The USDA weekly sales report yesterday showed only 47,400 tonnes of corn sold last week. That is record low number for this time of year and says price is very important to world buyers. The last time corn sales were near the 5 year average was when Dec futures tested 7.10 level. Soybean demand is strong with talk circulating that China bought as many as 10 more cargoes this week. We are waiting for an announcement from USDA, possibly at 8:00 am today. Soybean basis in Central IL was 10 cents higher yesterday while corn was unchanged. The Coast Guard reduced size of barge traffic tows on the lower Mississippi on Thursday. The focus on South American weather is fading as planting progress is over 50 in Argentina. Brazil crops are considered in pretty good shape for early season growth. Temps will be watched closely as we move into late December and early January. Corn and wheat remain in a trading range while soybeans gained more than 50 cents this week. We could see some profit taking a head of the weekend. Traders will be watching the Labor Department’s unemployment data which will be released at 7:30 this morning. Carryover estimates for USDA Supply and Demand report next week are 666 for corn versus last month 647, soybeans 135 compared to 140 last month and wheat 718 compared to 704 last month. Packers were bidding 123 on Thursday afternoon and feedlots were pricing cattle at 126 to 128. Last week cattle traded at 125. Boxed beef was lower with choice down .76 and select down 1.13. Fund selling in lean hogs has pushed futures through chart support. Pork cutout values were down .67. Stay tuned to Allendale Advisory Report to get the full story. Get all the price outlooks for 2013 at the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference on January 25 and 26, 2013. Reserve your seat TODAY
 
Markets as of 5:00 AM
Mar Corn    -2 3/4
Jan Beans   +4 1/2
Mar Wheat   -3 1/2
Feb Cattle -.30
Feb Hogs    -.50
Mar Dlr     +.18
Mar S+P     -1.50
Jan Crude   -.11
Feb Gold    -4.10
 

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.


 

Traders Wait for Further Direction

Dec 06, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for December 6, 2012 at 4:45 am. Grain futures are mostly higher. Soybean complex has posted new highs for recent move overnight. Talk of China buying beans and weather in Argentina is providing support. The uncertainty of the ability of Congress to work out a plan to keep the US economy from going over the "fiscal cliff" is causing many traders to reduce positions going into year end deadline. Ethanol production last week was higher than the previous week but 12% below a year ago. The USDA target for ethanol use is 10% below last year. Weekly export sales will be released at 7:30 this morning. Trade estimates are for corn 350 to 550 tmt, soybeans 500 to 700 tmt, soyoil 50 to 100 tmt, soymeal 150 to 300 tmt and wheat 350 to 500 tmt. The USDA report will be the next talked about report. There should be no adjustment to US production on this report however there could be revisions on the demand side. We expect USDA to lower their estimates on Argentina corn production. Cash cattle traded in Nebraska at 122 for a few head of heavy cattle. Trade this week is expected to be lower than last week’s 125 on cattle in KS and TX. Show lists are large and margins are deep in the red. Packers have yet to bid for cattle in the south. Boxed beef was lower with choice down .16 and select down 1.69. Pork cutout was down .17. Watch for headlines to move market. Stay tuned to Allendale Advisory Report to get the full story. Get all the price outlooks for 2013 at the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference on January 25 and 26, 2013. Reserve your seat TODAY
 
Markets as of 4:45 AM
Mar Corn    - 1/4
Jan Beans   +4 1/4
Mar Wheat   +2 1/4
Feb Cattle +.15
Feb Hogs    -.40
Mar Dlr     +.01
Mar S+P     +.25
Jan Crude   +.23
Feb Gold    +.30

Visit www.allendale-inc.com for the entire Wake Up Call report and more commodity reports and advice.

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Traders Liquidate on Uncertainty

Dec 05, 2012

 

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for December 5, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are higher in light overnight trade. Trading volume slows as traders reduce positions in face of Washington bickering over tax increases and reduction in entitlement payments. The Commodity Index had the largest decline since early September on Tuesday. Funds were net sellers of corn and wheat and small buyers of soybeans yesterday. Supplies of US corn are a concern to livestock producers as 1st quarter 2013 breakevens are in the red. However, it appears on setbacks, end-users are willing to lock in prices. Export and ethanol demand have shown declines greater than USDA has forecast. Concern over South American production is supporting soybeans this morning. They will have a crop in 2013 but the logistics of moving a large crop maybe the greater problem. Headlines will be the driver of commodity prices in the next few weeks as trade looks for export demand news or confidence a decision can be made in Washington. Weekly export sales tomorrow morning and USDA monthly Supply and Demand next Tuesday are on traders’ minds. Cattle futures closed below the 100 day moving average on Tuesday on fund selling. Show lists were larger this week and cash trade is expected to be lower. Boxed beef was mixed with choice down .27 and select up 1.93. Pork cutout value was up .23 on Tuesday. Seasonal patterns in hogs suggest lower trending markets through year end. Stay tuned to Allendale Advisory Report to get the full story. Get all the price outlooks for 2013 at the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference on January 25 and 26, 2013. Reserve your seat TODAY
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    +2 3/4
Jan Beans   +8 1/2
Dec Wheat   +1 3/4
Dec Cattle +.07
Dec Hogs    -.22
Dec Dlr     +.10
Dec S+P     +3.25
Jan Crude   +.09
Dec Gold    +7.90

 

 

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

 

Quiet Grains Overnight

Dec 04, 2012

 

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for December 4, 2012 at 4:40 am. Grain futures are slightly higher in very quiet trade. Farmers in Argentina are preparing for another round of heavy rains. Today through Thursday the main corn production area is expected to receive from 1 to 3 inches of rain on already soaked soils. The hard red wheat areas of the US are expected to remain dry with mild temps into next week. Weakness in the US dollar is providing support for US commodities however the movement of grain to the gulf is limiting the ability to make sales. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is expecting to begin removal of rock out of the shipping lanes in the Mississippi as early as January. The price of US corn currently compared to South America is carrying a $30 premium. Chart pictures suggest a further correction in the works for corn and wheat with yesterday’s late session sell-off. Watch the 7.40 area in nearby corn. Livestock futures sold off yesterday after notching new highs for the move in lean hogs. This pattern will likely bring further long liquidation. Seasonally hogs trend lower into January from first week in December. Boxed beef values were higher on Monday with choice up .29 and select up .39. Pork cutout was up .98. Stay tuned to Allendale Advisory Report to get the full story. Get all the price outlooks for 2013 at the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference on January 25 and 26, 2013. Reserve your seat TODAY
 
Markets as of 4:40 AM
Dec Corn    +1 1/2
Jan Beans   +1 3/4
Dec Wheat   + 1/4
Dec Cattle -.10
Dec Hogs    +.05
Dec Dlr     -.12
Dec S+P     +1.25
Jan Crude   -.01
Dec Gold    -14.20
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
The Feb Lean Hogs break today came within 20 cents of confirming the market top. Another clue that we should be looking at is that while the Feb Hogs were making new highs, the 9 period RSI indicators did not confirm a short term divergence in momentum. A momentum divergence is a significant clue in determining market direction…Frank La Placa
 
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The US dollar index has broken to new lows for its current downtrend. Traders are feeling more comfortable owning euros as Germany indicated it was more open to Greece debt write downs. There are growing concerns that US Fiscal Cliff negotiations will not go well. 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

 

Grains Start Month Higher

Dec 03, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for December 3, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grains futures are higher on early month risk-on buying. Egypt bought a total of 400,000 tonnes of wheat: 280,000 from US and the balance from Romania and France. Argentina farmers had a good week of planting progress. Their government said through last Thursday soybean plantings jumped by 11% to 58% complete. Corn farmers only planted 4% to reach 63% complete. Weather was good for fieldwork over the weekend in Argentina but the weather forecast is for heavy rains to move in midweek. The US low water problems on Midwest rivers had basis rising for corn and soybeans on Friday. The higher export prices in US are driving buyers to South America. However, shipments are now running about a 2 month delay out of South American ports. News talk shows over the weekend had something for everyone on the fiscal cliff negotiation and what effects a non-resolution would have on the economy. Corn Deliveries against the December contract were 246 with the last date 9/17/12.  Goldman roll will start later this week. Cash cattle traded 125 in Kansas on Friday which was 3.00 lower. Choice beef was down 1.00 and select was down .70. Pork cutout values were up .59 on Friday. We are expecting outside follow-through from last week on the opening. Cattle called steady lower, Lean Hogs mixed. Get all the price outlooks for 2013 at the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference on January 25 and 26, 2013. Reserve your seat TODAY
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    +7
Jan Beans   +16
Dec Wheat   +9 1/2
Dec Cattle Steady-Lower
Dec Hogs    Steady-Mixed
Dec Dlr     -.19
Dec S+P     +2.25
Jan Crude   -.05
Dec Gold    +8.00
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Mar Corn has retreated from its recent test of the $7.75 level. I feel that $7.75 is the key directional trigger to maintain any type of bias. As long as the Corn is lower than $7.75, it can leave open the possibility for a retest of our recent lows…Frank La Placa
 
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
China: The National Bureau of Statistics estimates this fall’s corn harvest totaled 208.1 million tonnes. This is quite a bit larger than USDA’s latest estimate of 200.0. They estimated 2012 wheat production at 120.6 million tonnes, higher than USDA’s 118.0.
 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

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