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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Friday Starts Lower in Grains

Nov 16, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 16, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grains are lower as a risk off attitude circulates through the commodity markets. Export sales estimates for this morning are: corn 200 to 400 tmt, soybeans 250 to 550 tmt, soymeal 150 to 250 tmt, soyoil 20 to 50 tmt and wheat 250 to 450 tmt. The favorable South American weather and weak export demand is keeping a negative weight on grain futures. This week’s chart action is not a confidence builder for the bulls. Closing out this week on a negative note could cause even more liquidation thoughts later in the session today. The macro forces such as the White House’s attitude of increasing taxes rather than looking for ways of economic growth have investors reducing risk tolerance because of their concern about slower GDP growth or a "kick the can" approach to the fiscal cliff issues. The financial woes of the EU which fell into a recession status for the 3rd quarter and the Gaza turmoil add to the uncertainty and a reason for stock market sell-off. Basis continues to strengthen and demand is being filled by resellers. Farms have locked the bin doors and lower prices will not cause grain to move. We have been talking to our clients about taking some protection on 2013 crops. There are many option strategies which could be implemented. Call your Allendale representative now. The USDA Cattle-on-Feed will be released at 2:00 pm today. The trade average estimates are on feed 94.7%, Placed 87.4% and marketed 102.5% of a year ago. Boxed beef was lower with choice down .29 and select down 1.17. Pork cutout values were down .27 on Thursday. We expect some position evening in livestock today. Watch key chart points going into the close. Join us at the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference on Jan 25 and 26.
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    -1 3/4
Jan Beans   -14 3/4
Dec Wheat   -1 1/4
Dec Cattle -.05
Dec Hogs    -.10
Dec Dlr     +.16
Dec S+P     -4.75
Dec Crude   -.30
Dec Gold    -5.50
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Dec Live Cattle has continued it sideways range at the lower edge of its trading channel. If the recent lows hold here, I do expect Live Cattle to attempt a recovery from these levels…Frank La Placa 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
US: Despite industry talk about US corn being priced competitive now, we cannot say the narrower gap is enough to jump US corn sales. There is a $37 gap between the two on a port to port basis. Even after considering our cheaper freight to Asia, the numbers are still not right.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

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