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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Quiet Grain Markets Overnight

Nov 20, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 20, 2012 at 4:45 am. Grains futures are slightly lower on minor profit taking. We need corn buyers to find their way back to the US. Our 3 largest corn buyers Japan, South Korea and Taiwan purchases are down 36, 79 and 74%, respectively, compared to last year. The price difference between US and South America is still running $30 to $35 per tonne. We continue to hear of shipping delays out of Brazil. The US may have problems as the longshoremen in Portland are considering a strike for November 25. Soybean exports are running 33% above last year with soyoil sales up 195% and soymeal up 24% from 2011. Argentina is forecast to get some heavy rains this weekend but the 6 to 10 day outlook is dry again. Crop conditions in US wheat continue to slide. The good to excellent category fell another 2% to 34%. Kansas, the largest wheat producing state, rating fell by 3% in G/E. Technical oversold conditions were relieved by Monday’s rally. We expect more consolidation as the Thanksgiving Day holiday nears. Option expiration for December grain contracts is on Friday. Boxed beef was mixed again on Monday with choice up 1.15 and select down .15. Hog slaughter will drop sharply this week but processors should make up for any reduction next week. Pork cutout value was down .60. Seasonal trends are for higher livestock prices into second quarter of 2013. Join us at the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference on Jan 25 and 26.
Markets as of 4:45AM
Dec Corn    - 1/2
Jan Beans   -1
Dec Wheat   + 1/4
Dec Cattle +.20
Dec Hogs    +.05
Dec Dlr     -.02
Dec S+P     +.25
Jan Crude   -.31
Dec Gold    -1.40
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Dec Lean Hogs made new highs yesterday on the recent rally. We now have the summer high of $82.30 in our sights so we want to be conscience of any short term divergence in bullish momentum at such an elevated level…Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Asian grain buyers are turning their focus to the US market. Japan, Taiwan, and others have more than 1.5 million tonnes of ordered Brazilian corn that has not been delayed due to port congestion.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

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