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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Spain Now Center Of EU Troubles

Apr 17, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for April 17, 2012 at 5:20 am. Grain futures rebound from yesterday’s selloff. Spain has been in the spotlight with their debt auction causing fund managers to reduce position size and take profits on some of the record long positions in soybeans. Spain says they will not stand by idly and let Argentina seize the assets of YPF a subsidiary of Spain’s Repsol. YPF is the largest oil producer in Argentina and holds 40% of Repsol’s reserves. Financial instability around the world is causing a crack in the investor confidence. Weather reports are for scattered showers this week with another system providing good coverage early next week. The "rain makes grain" attitude has traders bull spreading corn or outright selling December futures. The USDA had a small fire which caused a delay in the release of the crop conditions and planting progress until this afternoon. We are expecting another record pace with around 20% of US corn crop in the ground. The previous record corn planting pace was made by 2 years, 2004 and 2010, which also made record yields. Cash hogs and futures are under pressure as funds liquidate livestock longs and demand sags. April hog contract went off the board at noon yesterday. The premium of May and June over the April is causing downside pressure. The demand problem we have seen in beef for several months has now moved to the pork. China’s slowing economy also tempers hopes for their aggressive buying. Wholesale beef values worked higher on Monday with choice up 2.75 and select up 3.16. Pork cutout values were up .84. Only a few days left to sign up for the "Planters Special" for only $99.00. You can find details at .
Markets as of 5:20 AM
May Corn    +1
May Beans   +7
May Wheat   +3 1/2
Apr Cattle +.02
Jun Hogs    +.25
Jun S&P     +6.00
Jun $ Ind   -.07
May Crude   +.52
June Gold   +4.10
Allendale Advanced Charts
The bears pressed the wheat market on Monday through support at 6.28. Next support can be found at 6.12 3/4 then 5.97 ½.

Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
NOPA, the National Oilseed Processors Association, estimates March soybean crush at 140.534 million bushels. This was less than the 143.8 million bushels expected and therefore disappointing. We cannot call it disappointing as the number was 5% over last year’s March. If crush averages a mild 2% better pace for April through August, we will end with 13 million bushels more than USDA expected.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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