Marc Schober is the editor of Farmland Forecast an educational blog devoted to investments in agriculture and farmland.
WASDE: Corn and Soybeans Stocks Raised as Use Drops
Jul 11, 2013
The USDA estimates higher corn stocks for 2013/14 season due to lower feed use and exports, partially offset by a reduction in harvested acres due to the wet planting season. Analysts were expecting a reduction of 50 million bushels in ending corn stocks, but the USDA in typical fashion went against the trend.
U.S. corn production for 2013/14 was estimated 55 million bushels lower to 13.95 billion bushels, due to lower harvested area of 89.1 million acres. 2013/14 corn yields remain unchanged at 156.5 bushels per acre. Although corn production estimate was lowered, 2013/14 production is still 858 million bushels ahead of the record from 2009/10.
Corn use for 2013/14 was lowered 100 million bushels, due to a reduction in feed use and exports. Ending stocks for 2013/14 were increased by 10 million bushels to 1.959 billion, reflecting the expected drop in domestic use. The season average corn price for 2013/14 is unchanged at $4.40 to $5.20.
Global course grain supplies for 2013/14 were estimated to decrease by 3.6 million tons, due to a 2.9 million ton decline in U.S. supplies of corn and sorghum. Chinese corn production for 2013/14 is lowered by 1.0 million tons due to lower planted acreage.
U.S. soybean yields in 2013/14 were unchanged from last month at 44.5 bushels per acre. Harvested acreage was increased 0.7 million acres reflecting the June 28th Acreage Report, resulting in a 30 million bushel increase in production.
Ending stocks for soybeans in the 2013/14 marketing year were raised by 30 million bushels, due to increased production. U.S. supply and use projections for 2012/13 also remain unchanged. The projected season average price range for 2013/14 was $9.75 to $11.75 per bushel, unchanged from last month.
U.S. wheat yields for 2013/14 were raised this month to 46.2 bushels per acre, a 1.6 bushel increase from the June report. Domestic wheat production increased 34.0 million bushels due to the increase in expected yield .
Ending stocks for 2013/14 was lowered from 659 million bushels to 576 million. The season average wheat price for 2013/14 was estimated at $6.45 to $7.75 per bushel, raised 20 cents on both ends.
The planting season of the 2013 crop will be remembered as one of the worst seasons on record, yet the USDA estimates we will produce a record corn crop. With a historically late planting season, we will be closely monitoring the crucial pollination season over the next few weeks, which will set the tone for 2013 corn yields.
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