May 9, 2008
The week that was...
Flurry of farm bill activity. Not only did lawmakers make progress toward a new farm bill they reached a deal which they unveiled Thursday on a package with a price tag of nearly $610 billion. Lawmakers hailed the package as real reform, pointing to efforts to change payment-limit provisions and give farmers a revenue-based option which would start with the 2009 crop season. A comprehensive summary of the bill was published in Jim Wiesemeyer's Washington Insight column.
Administration rejects reform claims. While lawmakers were still basking in the glow of their completed work on the farm bill, USDA Secretary Ed Schafer denounced the bill as lacking reform and potentially putting the U.S. at risk for more challenges via the WTO. And, importantly, he said President Bush "will veto the bill." Read more on reactions from the administration and other groups.
Kansas wheat tour. The Wheat Quality Council's annual trek through Kansas wheat fields yielded a production estimate of 379.1 million bu., down from their 2007 tour estimate of 392.74 million bushels. The production decline forecast by the tour came despite their yield rising from what they measured in 2007. AgWeb's Tanner Ehmke has several reports chronicling the tour.
USDA data. USDA's first estimate of the U.S. winter wheat crop came in at 1.778 billion bu., a strong recovery from year-ago. Also, USDA's first 2008-09 Supply/Demand figures were released, putting corn carryover at a tight level in part due to a reduced yield projection due to the pace of corn planting. Soybean and wheat carryover levels are forecast to climb from the 2007-08 carryover marks. Here's a link to access all of AgWeb.com's coverage of the data.
Food vs. fuel focus continues. Two congressional hearings were held this week to examine the issue of food vs. fuel. And no doubt lawmakers came away uncertain about what has happened or what would happen if things were changed relative to the ethanol-use mandates as they heard a host of opinions on the cause of higher food prices and whether ethanol really is the culprit some say it is.
The week ahead...
Farm bill votes. Farm-bill writers are aiming to have legislative language for the new farm bill in the hands of House and Senate members by Monday with a vote hoped for in the House on Wednesday. The vote tallies in the House and Senate will be important given the veto warning from the White House. The focus will be on whether the bill passes with a two-thirds majority -- the level required to override a veto. Plus, there will be a flurry of activity on both the part of opponents and proponents of the bill to push their case.
Corn planting update. After USDA lowered its non-survey-based yield projection for corn due to the slow pace of corn planting, traders will be watching Monday afternoon's Crop Progress Report closely for how much ground has been made up in terms of getting the crop into the ground. Some expect we could see plantings reach the half-way point for the week ended May 11.
Weekly Export Sales. The Thursday morning data from USDA continues to be a focus for traders as they try to gauge whether foreign buyers are still lining up to buy U.S. commodities. Sales of cotton have been strong lately and markets will focus on the corn, soybean and wheat sales levels as well.
Korea beef situation. South Korea has signaled they'll open their market to U.S. beef next week, but they've been dealing with a lot of protests from concerned citizens. It is in part due to media reports that have raised questions about the safety of U.S. beef.
Weather update. The Climate Prediction Center issues their latest outlooks for the 30-day (June) and 90-day (June-August) period. Traders will focus in on whether the damp outlook which has kept corn plantings behind normal is forecast to remain in place for the early summer period.
Until next week, keep the optimism for agriculture alive!
