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A $1/bu. Range for Soybeans into August

July 15, 2010
 By Linda H. Smith
Between now and the next USDA supply–demand report on Aug. 12, November 2010 soybean futures could trade in about a $1/bu. range, possibly in the $9.75 to the $8.75 area, says Bill Fordham of C&S Grain Market Consulting. “However, the increasing importance of outside market factors such as the strength of the U.S. dollar and crude oil prices, along with non-ag money flows are making price projections that are based on history extremely difficult,” he cautions. 
Last month's high November futures price was 109% of USDA’s projected average price, he reports. “I expect the high to be a slightly higher percentage of USDA’s average price, possibly in
the 110% area, or around $9.75.”
Last month's low was 102% of USDA’s average price, he says. Given expected volatility, Fordham expects the low little lower relative to the USDA average price in the next month, possibly in the 99% area, or around the $8.75.
“Since 1997, the ranges for November beans during the month following the June supply–demand report have ranged from between $4.43 in 2008 to 26¢ in 2003, and have averaged about 113.00 cents,” says Fordham.

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FEATURED IN: Top Producer - SPRING 2010

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