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AgDay Daily Recap -June 30, 2014

June 30, 2014
 
 

 

TODAY ON AGDAY
JUNE 30, 2014
 
OPEN HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY - WILL NEW GOVERNMENT REPORTS SEND GRAIN PRICES HIGHER?  TEXAS, TALKS TOUGH WITH BURRITO MAKER, CHIPOTLE. IN AGRIBUSINESS - DOUBLE WEATHER COVERAGE AND A FORECAST FOR THE SUMMER AHEAD.  IT'S TOUGH TO HEAT THINGS UP BECAUSE YOU HAVE TO HEAT THE WATER IN THE GROUND,  AND GIVING A HOOT LEARNING TO GIVE BACK AT SUMMER CAMP IN TENNESEE.
AGDAY - BROUGHT TO YOU CHEVY SILVERADO THE 2014 NORTH AMERICAN TRUCK OF THE YEAR.
GRETE PREVIEW:
MY FOCUS GOING INTO THESE REPORTS IS MORE PROBABLY ON THE QUARTERLY GRAIN STOCKS... JUNE 1 GRAIN STOCKS IN TERMS OF WHERE THEY POSITION THEMSELVES COMPARED TO PRE-REPORT EXPECTATIONS. NOW KEEP IN MIND THAT THESE IS THIS IS THE DATA THAT USDA AND THE MARKET HAS BEEN FAR APART ON ESPECIALLY ON THE CORN SIDE OF THINGS AND THE GUESS RANGE FOR CORN STOCKS AS OF JUNE 1 IS 900 MILLION BUSHELS SO SOMEONE IS GOING TO BE SURPRISED WITH THAT FIGURE WHEN IT COMES OUT LATER THIS MORNING. FOR THE PROFARMER EDITORS IN CEDAR FALLS IOWA I'M BRIAN GRETE.
WET FIELDS:
 ONE OF THE BIG QUESTIONS ON THE ACREAGE REPORT WILL BE, HOW DOES USDA HANDLE ALL OF THE DROWNED-OUT ACRES IN THE NORTHWEST CORN BELT?  GRAIN TRADERS AND FARMERS ARE WONDERING IF IT WILL BE COUNTED AS PLANTED ACREAGE. THIS IS WHAT WE SAW NEAR STEPHEN, MINNESOTA LAST WEEK. IT'S A COMMON SITE IN THE "LAND OF 10-THOUSAND LAKES". BUT THERE'S ALSO BEEN HEAVY RAINS IN IOWA AND SOUTH DAKOTA.
CROP WATCH:
 THERE ARE SOME VERY STRONG CROP CONDITIONS IN THE STATE KNOWN FOR ITS POTATOES. BUT THIS TIME WE'RE LOOKING AT CEREALS GRAINS. HERE'S CINDI CLAWSON WITH CROPWATCH, CINDI.
UKRAINE SIGNS:
 IT'S OFFICIAL, UKRAINIAN LEADERS SIGNING THE LANDMARK E-U TRADE PACT FRIDAY. IT'S THE SAME AGREEMENT THAT IGNITED FIGHTING AND PROTESTS MONTHS AGO...AFTER ITS THEN PRIME MINISTER BOWED TO RUSSIAN PRESSURE--AND WALKED AWAY FROM THE DEAL. RUSSIA DID NOT TAKE THE SIGNING OF THE TRADE DEAL WELL...VOWING TO QUOTE TAKE ALL NECESSARY MEASURES AGAINST UKRAINE.
WTO MCOOL RULING:
IT'S OFFICIAL, UKRAINIAN LEADERS SIGNING THE LANDMARK E-U TRADE PACT FRIDAY. IT'S THE SAME AGREEMENT THAT IGNITED FIGHTING AND PROTESTS MONTHS AGO...AFTER ITS THEN PRIME MINISTER BOWED TO RUSSIAN PRESSURE--AND WALKED AWAY FROM THE DEAL. RUSSIA DID NOT TAKE THE SIGNING OF THE TRADE DEAL WELL...VOWING TO QUOTE TAKE ALL NECESSARY MEASURES AGAINST UKRAINE.
CHIPLOTE TEXAS:
LAST MONTH, CHIPOLTE RESTAURANTS ANNOUNCED PLANS TO BEGIN PURCHASING BEEF FROM AUSTRALIA. IT SAID IT COULDN'T FIND ENOUGH RESPONSIBLY RAISED BEEF IN AMERICA. THE BEEF INDUSTRY OF COURSE TOOK EXCEPTION WITH THAT STATEMENT...INCLUDING TEXAS AGRICULTURAL COMMISSIONER TODD STAPLES...NOW'S HE STARTING A DIALOGUE WITH THE COMPANY.
PEDV CORRECTION:
WE HAVE A CORRECTION FOR YOU THIS MORNING. LAST WEEK WE REPORTED THAT THE STATE OF ARKANSAS HAD ITS FIRST CONFIRMED CASE OF PORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA VIRUS. THE ARKANSAS STATE VETERINARIAN TELLS US THE INFECTION WAS ACTUALLY ON A MISSOURI FARM, BUT THE FARMS HEADQUARTERS ARE BASED IN ARKANSAS.
HOGS AND PIGS:
SPEAKING OF PORK THE USDA'S LATEST HOGS, AND PIGS… REPORT CAME OUT FRIDAY. IT SHOWS THE OVERALL INVENTORY IN THIS COUNTRY IS 62 MILLION HEAD. THE AG DEPARTMENT SAYS THAT'S THE LOWEST INVENTORY SINCE 2007. THE HERD IS DOWN FIVE PERCENT FROM A YEAR AGO, ABOUT ONE PERCENT LOWER FROM MARCH.
TEASE:
THANKS CINDI.
AS CINDI MENTIONED OUR OWN METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN AND USDA METEOROLOGIST BRAD RIPPEY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF TODAY'S ANALYSIS. THEY'LL DISCUSS WHAT THEY EXPECT TO SEE THE REST OF THE SUMMER. INTEREST RATES: IS IT TIME TO LOCK IN...THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST LOUIS PRESIDENT JAMES BULLARD SAYING IT THINKS THE FED WILL RAISE INTEREST RATES STARING THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2015. THAT WOULD BE THE FIRST RATE INCREASE SINCE 2006.
RABOBANK POULTRY:
RABOBANK RELEASING ITS QUARTERLY POULTRY REPORT…NEW NUMBERS SHOW GLOBAL POULTRY PRICES PICKING UP. THE BULLISH TREND IS DRIVEN BY STRONG PRICE SUPPORT IN BEEF AND PORK...AND LOWER FEED COSTS. HERE AT HOME 2014 IS ON TRACK TO BE ONE OF THE MOST PROFITABLE IN THE LAST DECADE.
ANALYSIS INTRO:
ONE THING THAT CAN IMPACT MARKETS IS THE WEATHER. IN THIS MORNING'S ANALYSIS, TYNE MORGAN DISCUSSES THE SHORT-TERM WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH TWO PRE-EMINENT METEOROLOGISTS, TYNE!
ANAYLSIS:
WELL SO MUCH ATTENTION IS ALWAYS ON THE WEATHER OF MY AGRICULTURE AND SO WE HAVE MIKE HOFFMAN HERE OUR OWN METEOROLOGIST AND ALSO USDA METEOROLOGIST BRAD RIPPY TO FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WHAT WE NEED TO BE LOOKING AT MIKE LETS START WITH YOU IT HAS BEEN COOLER THAN NORMAL IN A LOT OF AREAS DO YOU SEE THAT CONTINUING OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. I DO OVERALL THERE'S OBVIOUSLY GOING TO BE SOME HOT PERIODS WE'RE HEADING INTO JULY AND AUGUST HERE BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE FAIRLY SHORT-TERM FROM WHAT WERE LOOKING AT RIGHT NOW ANYTIME YOU HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THE GROUND IT'S TOUGH TO HEAT THINGS UP BECAUSE YOU HAVE TO HEAT THE WATER IN THE GROUND ALSO IT'S MUCH EASIER TO HEAT DRY GROUND THAN IT IS WET GROUND AND SO WHAT YOU END UP DOING IS CUTTING BACK ON THAT HEAT IN THOSE WET AREAS AND A LOT OF THE MIDWEST HAS BEEN WET OVER THE PAST MONTH AND A HALF. WELL WHEN WE LOOK AT SOME OF THESE WET AREAS YOU KNOW IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS WHO GETS THE RAIN AND WHO DOESN'T BRAD. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL IN MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND THAT MEANS FOR THE MOST PART RAIN MAKES GRAIN RAIN MAKES OIL SEEDS RAINS GOOD FOR CROPS THERE'S ONLY VERY FEW EXCEPTIONS IN HISTORY 1993 FLOODING BEING ONE WHERE WE JUST HAD TOO MUCH OF A GOOD THING NOW THAT SAID WE DO HAVE SOME LOCAL AND REGIONAL PROBLEMS THIS SUMMER THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WE'VE HAD MORE THAN 10 INCHES OF RAIN IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST ALREADY THIS MONTH IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AGO AND MORE RAIN EXPECTED AND SO FOR THOSE FOLKS YOU CAN'T SAY RAIN MAKES GRAIN IT'S IS BECOMING A BIG PROBLEM. DO YOU SEE THAT YOU KNOW THE TOO MUCH RAIN THAT TREND CONTINUING I MEAN THEY'VE HAD 7 INCHES IN A MATTER OF DAYS SOME PLACES…YEA THERES INDICATIONS THAT WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE ROUND AFTER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM AS THESE STORMS ROLL IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND HIT THE UPPER MIDWEST. WELL LOOKING AT THE WEST THEIR SUFFERING FROM NOT ENOUGH RAIN MIKE ANY REAL RELIEF INSIGHT CALIFORNIA. UNFORTUNATELY NOT REALLY WHEN YOU HAVE THE PATTERN WHERE THE TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE WEST THAT'S SENDING ALL THE MOISTURE IN THE PLAINS WHICH IS WHERE IT'S BEEN OCCURRING YOU GET ALMOST NOTHING IN CALIFORNIA AND I DON'T REALLY SEE THAT ENDING ANYTIME SOON UNFORTUNATELY. WHAT ABOUT TEXAS AND THE PLAINS WHERE THEY HAVE HAD SOME RELIEF WILL THAT CONTINUE. YEA TEXAS THROUGH KANSAS AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS HAVE DONE WELL THEY NEED A LOT MORE WERE STILL TALKING 12 TO 18 INCHES TO ERADICATE A DROUGHT THAT BEGAN IN THE FALL OF 2010 AND HAS BEEN WITH THE MORE THAN 3 AND A HALF YEARS IN TEXAS. OH GOSH DO YOU SEE THAT COMING. WELL THE TEXAS COTTON FOLKS LOVING THIS BECAUSE I MEAN THEIR ABLE TO CUT BACK ON THE IRRIGATION AT THIS POINT AND IT'S GREAT FOR THE CROPS THAT ARE GROWN IN THAT REGION IT CAME TO LATE FOR WINTER WHEAT THAT CROP WAS VIRTUALLY LOST BUT AT THE SAME TIME WE ARE A REALLY SEEING A GREEN UP IN THE PASTURE AND RANGE LANDS AS LONG AS THE RAIN LAST THAT REGION WILL BE WELL. OKAY SO TOP SOIL BUT THE SUB SOILD STILL NEEDS STILL NEEDS THE MOISTURE. IF WE GO BACK TO HOT DRY WEATHER, BIG TROUBLE IN A HURRY BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF SUBSOIL MOISTURE. OKAY THANK YOU GUYS FOR BOTH BEING HERE WE APPRECIATE IT.
TEASE RIPPY:
IN THEIR LINE OF WORK, MIKE AND BRAD ARE TYPICALLY STUCK IN THE OFFICE, BUT RECENTLY THEY MET WITH SOME MICHIGAN FARMERS TO DISCUSS CROP CONDITIONS COVERAGE THIS WEEK ON AGDAY.
BB STRATEGO:
AGDAY-BROUGHT TO YOU BY STRATEGO YIELD FUNGICIDE FROM BAYER…PUT'ER THERE EARLY SEASON FOR AN AVERAGE SIX POINT EIGHT BUSHELS AN ACRE BUMP IN CORN YIELD.
WX:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY NOW, CINDY LOOKING AT THE DROUGHT MONITOR HERE THERE ARE SOME IMPROVEMENTS WE CAN SEE OVERTIME BUT SOME PLACES GETTING WORSE TOO. YEAH ABSOLUTELY IT'S KIND OF A MIX OF GOOD AND BAD. AND UNFORTUATELY THE BAD IS JUST REALLY BAD. IT’S VERY DRY OUT IN THE WEST AND CONTINUES TO BE. THE PLACES WHERE WE'VE SEEN IMPROVEMENT DOWN IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WE'VE HAD A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. SO WE'RE REALLY STARTING TO SEE THAT SHOW UP ON THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR. THE OTHER THING THAT WE'RE STARTING TO SEE SHOW UP ON THE US DROUGHT MONITOR IS MORE DRYNESS IN PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO KENTUCKY AND TENNESEE SO SOME PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST ARE STARTING TO GET A LITTLE BIT MORE DRY BUT THAT'S STILL IN THE BEGINNING STAGES. WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WHAT'S GOING ON THERE. LETS TAKE A LOOK AT WHAT WE HAVE IN STORE FOR US FOR US WELL AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK IS GOING TO BE WARM FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE COUNTRY. BUT WE'RE GOING TO WATCH A TROUGH IN THE NATION'S MIDSECTION THAT'S GOING TO BE SWINGING THROUGH AND THAT WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TO A LOT OF THE AREAS IN THE GREAT LAKES. MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CORN BELT BUT NOTICE HOW A LOT OF THE WEEK IS GOING TO BE FAIRLY WARM FOR A LOT OF THE COUNTY. ESPCIALLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, LOOK AT THIS RIDGE REALLY BUILDING HERE INTO THE PLAINS STATES. ALL THE WAY UP INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF CANADA. IT'S GOING TO BE QUITE WARM THERE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. WE'LL SEE THOSE COOLER TEMPERATURES HERE IN PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST. NOW AS WE TAKE A LOOK FOR THE WEEK AS A WHOLE WE'RE GOING TO BE SEEING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WE'RE GOING TO SEE IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE WEST ESPCIALLY THE SOUTHWEST. WE'LL SEE THOSE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN SORT OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES STATES AND THEN JUST A LITTLE CHUNK THERE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK ON THE ABOVE NORMAL SIDE IN THE SOUTHEAST THE MIDATLANTIC ALSO THE WESTERN LAKESI NTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT UNFORTUNATELY CONTINUED DRYING IN SOME OF THOSE VERY DRY AREAS IN WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST. AS WE TAKE A LOOK AT OUR THIRTY DAY TEMPERATURES WE'RE LOOKING OVERALL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT THRITY DAYS FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHCENTRAL UNITED STATES. HEADING INTO PARTS FO THE NORTHEAST WARM ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND ALONG THE GULF COAST AND OUT IN THE WEST AND AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IT LOOKS LIKE ABOVE NORMAL FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN CORN BELT DOWN INTO THE MIDATLANTIC BUT UNFORTUNATLEY DRY FOR SOME OF THE VERY DRY AREAS THAT WILL BE CONTINUING. THAT'S A LOOK AT YOUR NATIONAL FORECAST NOW LETS TAKE A LOOK AT THE FORECAST WHERE YOU LIVE. DILLION MONTANA A LITTLE BIT SUNNY AND WARMER FOR YOU TODAY. WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 73 DEGREES FREEPORT ILLINOIS LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HIGH OF 83 DEGREES AND PUTNAM CONETICUT LOTS OF SUNSHINE HIGH OF 82 DEGREES.
MACHINERY PETE OPEN:
MACHINERY PETE IS BROUGHT TO YOU BY JOHN DEERE AND YOUR LOCAL JOHN DEERE DEALER. NOTHING RUNS LIKE A DEERE. MACHINERY PETE: THANKS, GREG. GREAT INFO AS ALWAYS .YOU CAN STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST DEALS BY FOLLOWING PETE ON TWITTER OR LIKING HIM ON FACEBOOK.  HE'S ALSO FEATURED EVERY WEEK ON AGRITALK AND AGWEB DOT COM.
TEASE:
STILL TO COME - FIND OUT HOW THE NATION'S CHERRY CROP IS RESPONDING TO WEATHER CHALLENGES THIS YEAR. DETAILS IN FOOD AND YOUR FAMILY, AND  "GIVE A HOOT" ABOUT NATURE.”
ITC CAMP OWL:
SUMMER MEANS A TRIP TO CAMP FOR MANY LUCKY KIDS. IN TENNESSEE ONE ADVENTURE TAKES THEM TO A PLACE WHERE OUTDOOR EXPERIENCES - AND HELPING THE ENVIRONMENT - ARE ON THE DAY'S TO-DO LIST. IN THIS REPORT PROVIDED BY THE U-T INSTITUTE OF AGRICULTURE, CHUCK DENNEY TAKES US TO OWLS CAMP - WHERE NATURE MEETS SERVICE. ITC TAG: OWLS CAMP ISN'T TOTALLY TECH-FREE. KIDS LEARN TO USE GPS NAVIGATIONAL SYSTEMS ON WILDLIFE HIKES. THEY ALSO DO A NUMBER OF NIGHTTIME NATURE ACTIVITIES. FOOD AND YOUR FAMILY IS NEXT.
BUTTER CONCERNS:
GO EASY ON THE BUTTER....DOMESTIC DEMAND FOR BUTTER HAS BEEN STRONG RECENTLY…DEPITE HIGHER PRICES.THAT'S PUSHING MANUFACTURERS TO START RECUTTING BIG BLOCKS OF BUTTER INTO RETAIL SIZED PORTIONS. BUTTER STOCKS ARE CURRENTLY WELL BELOW LAST YEAR. STRONG EXPORTS AND LOWER THAN AVERAGE MILK PRODUCTION GAINS CUT BUTTER PRODUCTION SHORT. MANUFACTURES ADDED JUST 80 MILLION POUNDS TO STOCKS---THAT ABOUT HALF WHAT IT WAS IN THE FIRST FIVE MONTHS OF 2012 AND 2013.
CLOSE:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN. FOR CINDI CLAWSON AND TYNE MORGAN. I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.
STATION PROMO: COMING UP TUESDAY ON AGDAY - FARMERS HARVESTING SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT SHOULD BE ON THE LOOK OUT FOR A DISEASE CALLED HEAD SCAB.
WE'LL HAVE MANAGEMENT ADVICE. PLUS --HOW MANY ACRES ACTUALLY GOT PLANTED THIS SPRING...THE LATEST GUESS FROM USDA. JOIN ME WEEKDAYS FOR AGDAY.
RFD PROMO:
MONDAY ON AGDAY - MARKET MOVING GRAIN REPORTS COME-OUT TODAY. WE'LL HELP YOU PREPARE
PLUS, NOT ONE, BUT TWO, METEOROLOGISTS TALKING ABOUT THE REST OF THE GROWING SEASON.
JOIN US EIGHT EASTERN ON RFD.

 
 
 

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