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USFR Weekly Recap - July 27-28, 2013

July 27, 2013

                                                                                                                                                                                         

THIS WEEK ON U.S. FARM REPORT

EPISODE # 2085

JULY 27-28, 2013   

 

 

JOHN’S OPEN:

HELLO AND WELCOME TO U-S FARM REPORT, I'M JOHN PHIPPS. AS CORN PRICES DROPPED SEEMINGLY FIRMLY INTO THE FOURS, I HAVE HEARD MULTIPLE REPORTS OF IMMEDIATE DISCUSSIONS WITH LANDOWNERS ABOUT ADJUSTING RENTS TO THE NEW INCOME PROJECTIONS. WHILE THIS IS TO BE EXPECTED, MY SENSE IS IT IS HAPPENING MORE QUICKLY THAN EVER, AS PRODUCERS TAKE THE INITATIVE FAR MORE VIGOROUSLY THAN WE HAVE BEFORE. THIS IS JUST ONE ASPECT OF HOW THIS BUST - IF A TYPICAL PRICE PULLBACK CAN BE CALLED THAT - WILL BE DIFFERENT. I'LL HAVE MORE TO SAY ABOUT THE DIRE STRAITS WE ARE NOT IN IN A MOMENT, BUT ONE THING TO WATCH WILL BE HOW MANY FARMERS DON'T JOIN IN THE CHORUS OF WOE. TIME NOW FOR THE HEADLINES.....HERE'S AL PELL IN FOR TYNE MORGAN.

HEADLINES:

SHORT CROPS AND HIGH FEED COSTS FOR LIVESTOCK OPERATORS ARE RENEWING CALLS AGAINST THE RENEWABLE FUELS STANDARD. USDA'S CROP PROGRESS REPORT SHOWS A DECLINE IN THE CORN CONDITION RATING. 63-PERCENT IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT, A DROP OF THREE POINTS FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK. THE NATION'S DAIRY FARMERS ARE PUMPING OUT MORE MILK THAN THEY DID LAST YEAR. JUNE TO JUNE, USDA SAYS PRODUCTION IS UP ABOUT ONE AND A HALF PERCENT. THE NUMBER ONE MILK PRODUCER - CALIFORNIA - SAW IT'S PRODUCTION LEVELS DECLINE BY LESS THAN ONE PERCENT. IT'S STILL PRODUCING ABOUT THREE-AND-A-HALF BILLION POUNDS. KANSAS SAW THE BIGGEST YEARLY GAIN, ALMOST 10 PERCENT HIGHER YEAR OVER YEAR. THE LATEST PASTURE AND RANGE CONDITIONS FROM USDA SHOW IMPROVEMENTS OVER LAST YEAR. AS OF THIS WEEK, 44 PERCENT WAS RATED GOOD TO EXCELLENT. 28 PERCENT POOR TO VERY POOR. WHILE ITS STILL REPRESENT A LARGE PART OF THE COUNTRY, IT'S ABOUT HALF WHAT IT WAS LAST YEAR, WHEN 55 PERCENT OF THE NATION'S PASTURES WERE IN POOR TO VERY POOR CONDITION.

CROP WATCH:

CROP WATCH THIS WEEK STARTS IN NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A FARMER FROM TIPPAH COUNTY SAYS CROPS LOOK REALLY GOOD THERE.  NOW TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA A FARMER SAYS IT 'LOOKS LIKE LAST YEAR' - THAT'S HOW HE'S DESCRIBING GROWING CONDITIONS. HE SAYS PIVOTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING NONSTOP FOR 3 WEEKS.  IN SOUTHERN IDAHO, A WHEAT GROWER SAYS HE STARTED WINTER WHEAT HARVEST THREE DAYS AGO AND IT IS POOR. AVERAGE ON HIS FARM IS 37 BUSHELS, BUT HE'S LUCKY TO GET 20 THIS YEAR.

ROUNDTABLE:

AL TAKES OVER TO TALK MARKETS WITH MIKE FLOREZ AND BRIAN BASTING.

JOHN’S WORLD:

AFTER YEARS OF DIRE WARNINGS, AG DOOMSAYERS WERE REWARDED BY FINALLY BEING SOMEWHAT RIGHT - CORN PRICES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE FOURS! THE HORROR! BUT HERE'S WHERE I THINK THEIR PREDICTIONS ARE STILL OVERWROUGHT. TOO MANY AG ADVISORS USE DOOM TO PROMPT ACTION AND NOT COINCIDENTALLY, COMMISSIONS AND FEES. BUT THE IDEA THE VAST MAJORITY OF PRODUCERS DIDN'T SEE THIS COMING IS ABSURD. FURTHERMORE THE PROPHECIES OF WHOLESALE FINANCIAL RUIN ACROSS THE GRAIN SECTOR ARE EQUALLY NONSENSICAL. WE ARE NOT THE HELPLESS PAWNS MANY THINK. IN FACT, I THINK FARMERS WILL ADJUST TO THIS FAIRLY NORMAL MARKET ACTION FASTER AND MORE EFFECTIVELY THAN EVER. OUR INPUT INDUSTRY WILL BE FACING SOME TOUGH CUSTOMERS. MACHINERY WILL FEEL IT FIRST, I SUSPECT, BUT FERTILIZER DEALERS WILL SOON SEE SOME FIERCE PRICING RESISTANCE AS WELL. AS FOR SEED, IT'S GOING TO BE VERY TOUGH TO MAKE A CASE FOR NOW LESS EFFECTIVE TRAITS WHICH RETURN LOWER PAYBACK. ORDERS FOR EVERYTHING WILL BE SLOW AS PRODUCERS WHO HAVE SEEN THE OTHER SIDE OF A BOOM REMEMBER WAITING TO BUY IS A POWERFUL LEVER. WE DIDN'T PARTY ALL THE TIME CROP PRICES WERE SIZZLING - WE REINVESTED IN THE FUTURE. AND WE WON'T BE MOPING AS THEY NATURALLY DROP BACK. WE'RE READY FOR THIS NEXT PHASE IN AGRICULTURE IN PART BECAUSE WE'VE ADDED REINFORCEMENTS: FINALLY OUR BEST AND BRIGHTEST HAVE COME HOME TO FARM. SO WHILE THE NEXT FEW YEARS MAY NOT BE A SLAM DUNK, I HAVE NO DOUBTS THAT MY COMPETITORS AT LEAST STILL HAVE GAME.

2ND HALF

JOHN’S OPEN:

HELLO AND WELCOME TO U-S FARM REPORT, I'M JOHN PHIPPS. THE U-S TRADE REPRESENTATIVE TALKED WITH MIKA ADAMS THIS WEEK ON AGRICTALK AND SPOKE OPTIMISTICALLY ABOUT THE NEW FREE TRADE NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE E-U. THIS AGREEMENT HAS BEEN BELOW OUR RADAR AS WE FOCUS ON FARM BILLS AND CROP PROGRESS. BUT I AGREE THIS NEGOTIATION COULD BE VERY GOOD FOR AGRICULTURE. NOT FOR THE USUAL REASONS. WE MAY NOT GET WHAT WE WANT ON HORMONES OR GMO'S, BUT WHAT WE COULD GET IS A POWERFUL TOOL TO ENCOURAGE GREATER COOPERATION FROM CHINA. THE COMBINED $47 TRILLION DOLLAR EU-US CLOUT MAY SET THE STANDARD FOR WHAT FREE TRADE SHOULD LOOK LIKE. LET'S GET STARTED WITH THE HEADLINES AND AL PELL.

HEADLINES:

THANKS JOHN. LAWMAKERS FROM BOTH SIDES OF THE POLITICAL AISLE ARE WORKING TOGETHER TO PREVENT THE ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY FROM RELEASING PRIVATE INFORMATION ABOUT FARMERS. JUST TWO MONTHS AFTER THAT POWERFUL AND DEADLY TORNADO TORE THROUGH EL RENO, OKLAHOMA, A LANDMARK TO THE STATE'S LIVESTOCK INDUSTRY HAS RE-OPENED. THE CENTER'S FOR DISEASE CONTROL IS INVESTIGATING AN OUTBREAK OF THE PARASITE CYCLO-SPORA. SO FAR IT'S SICKENED NEARLY 300 PEOPLE IN 8 STATES. 10 PEOPLE HAVE GONE TO THE HOSPITAL. IF YOU CAN'T GET PEOPLE TO BUY AND EAT FRESH VEGETABLES ON THEIR OWN, HOW ABOUT GETTING A PRESCRIPTION?

KALEIDOSCOPE MAKER:

30 YEARS AGO, LEONARD OLSON WAS CLIMBING THE CORPORATE LADDER AND MAKING A GOOD LIVING. BUT A HEALTH SCARE BROUGHT THE POMEROY, IOWA MAN TO A TURNING POINT IN HIS LIFE. NOW, HE WORKS BY HIS OWN RULES, AT HIS OWN PACE. IN THE PROCESS, HE TURNS OUT SOME AMAZING WOODEN WONDERS. AL JOENS FROM AFFILIATE KTIV-TV HAS HIS STORY.

LEGACY:

TEXAS FARMS AND RANCHES ARE AN IMPORTANT PART OF THE STATE'S HISTORY. EACH YEAR A FARM FAMILY IS GIVEN THE FAMILY LAND HERITAGE AWARD. KEVIN SPAFFORD - OUR "LEGACY PROJECT" SPECIALIST - HAS OUR STORY.

TRACTOR TALES:

AL IS BACK - WHAT DO YOU HAVE FOR US THIS WEEK? JOHN, WE'RE OFF TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO CHECK OUT A CLASSIC 7-30.

CHURCH SALUTE:

COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE THIS WEEK GOES TO THE ROBBERSON PRAIRIE BAPTIST CHURCH IN WILLARD, MISSOURI. THIS WEEKEND THE CONGREGATION IS CELEBRATING 100 YEARS. LOCATED JUST NORTH OF SPRINGFIELD, THE CHURCH IS NAMED FOR ELIZABETH ROBBERSON - A WIDOW WHO SETTLED IN THE AREA WITH HER 14 CHILDREN. A ONE ROOM CHURCH WAS BUILT AND THE FIRST SERVICE WAS HELD IN SEPTEMBER 1913.
THROUGH THE YEARS, IMPROVEMENTS WERE MADE. BUT EVEN AS RECENTLY AS 1974, AN OUT-HOUSE WAS STILL IN USE. AS CHURCH MEMBER CAROLYN REED TOLD US - "THAT INCLUDED WASPS, SNAKES AND ALL." AS CAROLYN PUTS IT - THRU 100 YEARS AND 37 PASTORS, THE MISSION HAS REMAINED THE SAME, "TO TELL THE OLD, OLD STORY OF JESUS."

MAILBAG:

TIME NOW FOR OUR WEEKLY LOOK INSIDE THE FARM REPORT MAILBAG.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As always, we want to hear from you, send comments to mailbag@usfarmreport.com or leave us a voice mail at 800-792-4329.

 

 

 

 

 

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