Sep 15, 2014
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World Grain Stocks Seen at 15-Year High

June 26, 2014
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World grain stockpiles excluding rice are forecast to climb to a 15-year high by the end of the 2014-15 season as production of wheat and corn outpaces demand, the International Grains Council said.

The world’s farmers will harvest more wheat and corn than expected a month ago, the London-based IGC wrote in an e-mailed report today. The council reversed its May outlook for a drop in ending stocks of wheat and coarse grains such as corn.

Corn, soybeans and wheat are the worst performers on the S&P GSCI gauge of 24 raw materials in the past year amid expectations of rising supply, with an outlook for higher wheat production in Europe and a near-record corn crop in the U.S.

"The outlook for total grains production in 2014-15 is increased sharply," the IGC wrote. "Amid mostly favorable weather for crops, better prospects for wheat and maize led the rise," the council said, using another name for corn.

Ending stocks of wheat and coarse grains such as corn and barley are predicted to climb to 412 million metric tons from 400 million tons at the end of 2013-14, the highest since the end of the 1999-2000 season, according to the IGC. The outlook was raised from 398 million tons last month.

Global wheat output will be 699.3 million tons in the 2014-15 season, up from a May forecast of 694.1 million tons and down from 710.2 million tons the previous year, it said. The outlook for China and the European Union was raised.

Wheat production in the EU may be 146.8 million tons from a previous forecast of 144.9 million, the IGC said. The forecast for China’s wheat crop was lifted to 122 million tons from last month’s 120 million tons.

 

Wheat Stockpiles

 

Global inventories of wheat at the end of the 2014-15 season will be 194 million tons, a jump from last month’s projection of 187 million tons, according to the report. Global trade in wheat is forecast to slip to 144 million tons from 152 million tons.

World corn production will be 962.8 million tons, from last month’s forecast of 955.2 million tons, the IGC said.

The agency raised its projection for output in Brazil, the second-biggest exporter behind the U.S., to 73 million tons, compared with last month’s forecast of 71.5 million tons. The U.S. outlook was left unchanged at 350 million tons.

Chinese farmers may harvest 220 million tons of corn in 2014-15, more than the 215 million tons predicted last month.

Global inventories of corn at the end of 2014-15 will be 180 million tons, higher than a previous forecast of 172 million tons, the IGC said. Corn trade may slip to 115 million tons from 118 million tons, according to the council.

 

Soybean Record

 

World production of soybeans will be 300 million tons in 2014-15 from 283 million tons in 2013-14, the IGC said. That will boost ending stocks of the oilseed to 35 million tons from 28 million tons, based on the outlook.

"Production of soya beans is projected to rise by 6 percent year on year to an all-time peak, boosted by expectations for record plantings in the U.S. and Brazil," the council wrote.

International trade in soybeans may rise to 111 million tons from 108 million tons, with Chinese imports rising, according to the IGC.

The agency lifted its outlook for global rice production to 476 million tons from 475 million tons.

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