Sep 14, 2014
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Cash Grain Insights

RSS By: Kevin McNew, AgWeb.com

Kevin McNew is President of Grain Hedge and Geograin. McNew was raised on a farm in central Oklahoma and received his bachelor’s degree from Oklahoma State University, and master’s and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from North Carolina State University. For over a decade, he was a Professor of Economics at the University of Maryland and Montana State University, focusing on commodity markets. He has received numerous academic awards for his research and outreach work, and was (and still is) widely regarded for boiling down complex economic issues into easy-to-understand concepts for applied life.

 

USDA REPORT REACTION

Jul 11, 2014

Grains are continuing lower after this morning’s USDA report. Corn is down 9 cents and soybeans is trading 20 cents lower for the new crop contracts. This report was generally in-line with expectations for soybeans, but 2014/15 corn ending stocks were roughly 25 million bushels above trade expectations.

Old crop corn carryout was raised 100 million bushels, bringing 2013/14 carryout to 1.246 billion bushels. 2014/15 production was lower 75 million bushels as planted acres and harvested acres were lowered from the June report slightly. Yield was left unchanged at 165.3 bushels per acre. On net, supply for 2014/15 was raised 25 million bushels as a result of larger old crop carryout. Feed and residual use was down 50 million bushels and all other demand side numbers were left unchanged. On net, 2014/15 ending stocks were raised 75 million bushels to 1801 million bushels – 25 million bushels above trade expectations coming into the report. The USDA did not aggressively increase demand numbers for 2014/15 as some traders had expected coming into the report. Overall negative report for corn and we are now testing technical support at $3.80. Adding to the bearish sentiment was world corn ending stocks which were raised 5.4 million metric tons (3%) from the June report.

 

 The old crop balance sheet was one of the items that fueled soybean selling in the wake of the USDA supply and demand report. Ending stocks jumping 15 million bushels from last month’s report catching some traders off guard and triggering selling throughout the soybean complex. The ending stocks increase was primarily driven by a negative residual number of -69 million bushels. In the last 21 growing seasons and most likely further back than that we have only seen one year with a negative residual number and that was the 2011/12 growing season when we recorded a -2 million bushel residual. We did have an increase in both crushing’s and exports by 25 million bushels and 20 million bushels respectively to eat through some of the beans but ending stocks were raised to 140 million bushels in the end. This has weighed heavily on the bull spread between August and November futures.

New crop soybean ending stocks missed analyst expectations, showing 415 million bushels instead of the anticipated 418 million bushels. The difference was not significant enough to cause any kind of bullish move and the market quickly sold into the report. The USDA revised total supply up 180 million bushels over the June report and increased demand a bit over 4% adding 40 million bushels to crushing and 50 million bushels to export sales. Overall this is a report met trade expectations for 2014/15 ending stocks. World soybean ending stocks were raised by 2.43 million metric tons, but this was almost entirely made up of increases to US ending stocks. Overall a neutral report for soybeans but the argument can still be made that $10.70 futures will not hold through harvest with ending stocks at 415 million bushels for the upcoming marketing season.

 

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