Oct 1, 2014
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Current Marketing Thoughts

RSS By: Kevin Van Trump, AgWeb.com

Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.

Can Corn Bulls Win a Few More Battles?

Feb 22, 2014

Corn continues to hold its recent gains as the bulls seem satisfied with the corn acres at 92 million.  Not that its a huge victory, because we would ultimately like to see the planted acreage number fall below 90-million, but it was nice to see the USDA trim another 1.5 million off their previous baseline estimate.  Unfortunately, from my perspective these are still just shots in the dark. Not until we get closer to planting will we truly get a gauge of how many producers are going to switch more acres to beans or perhaps back to cotton or wheat.  If corn prices continue to creep higher, planting conditions are favorable and farmers try to chase yields in order to pay the high priced rents, it wouldn't surprise me to see close 95 million acres go in the ground. Obviously, this would NOT be bullish.  On the flip side, if prices start to drift back to the lower end of the range and weather conditions delay planting, perhaps more producers than originally thought go with fewer soybean acres.  There is not a lot of "gas" on the fields right now and producers can easily elect to go a different direction. Meaning 90-91 million might not be out of the question if all conditions play out. I hate to sound wishy-washy, but I simply think the US corn acreage number is completely up in the air right now and is going to be heavily debated the next several weeks. Personally, I hope the bulls can continue to win a few more battles so I can reduce a little more risk on the rallies.  Click Here to get my daily report...

Here Is Your Road Map - Look for the following....

 

  1. March 31st Quarterly Stocks Report - This report could be a bit of a game changer, especially if the USDA finds more bushels than previously thought. This will be something the trade will start more heavily debating as we move forward.    
  2. Pre-Planted Acreage Debate The trade will heavily debate planted acreage as we move closer to plantings. There is already talk that the USDA could readjust acres significantly higher in the March 31st Planting Intentions Report!  
  3. Planting Pace Debate - Next debate comes in regard to US planting pace. The key number is how much will we have in the ground by mid-May.  Less than 80% and the trade will start to get nervous and prices will rally. More than 80%planted by mid-May and .....Click here for my daily report.... 
  4. June Precipitation - Next the trade will start to debate June Percipitation.  Obviously any lack of precipitation in your 8-Key states (IA, IL, IN, MO, MN, NE, OH, SD) will make the trade nervous and prices will work higher on lower corn yields. Better than average precipitation and yield estimates work higher.     
  5. July Temps - The final growing season debate will come in the form of July temps.  If we see extremely high temps on top of limited rainfall in June prices could push much higher as yield estimates fall. Cooler than normal temps and prices fall.       Click here for my daily report....
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