Jul 23, 2014
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Current Marketing Thoughts

RSS By: Kevin Van Trump, AgWeb.com

Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.

Corn: Pull the Trigger Now or Roll the Dice?

Feb 04, 2014

Corn continues to find minor strength on lack of farmer movement and rising demand. On the bullsih side of things, we are hearing the EPA is delaying any revisions to the RFS ethanol mandate until summer, which delays a possible decrease in demand for a few more months. We are also chewing on back-to-back winter storms which continue to snarl grain transport across the country, and are keeping the nearby cash prices supported.  From what I am hearing end-users are having a seriously rough time securing supplies, and with the next round of snow and ice moving in today, cash prices should continue to stay elevated.  Old-crop MAR14 contract has now traded out to it's highest level since early-December. Tech traders are thinking the market has potential to push just north of $4.50 and maybe as high as $4.60 before running out of steam and being pressured more heavily by farmer selling. The new-crop DEC14contract is now once again back above $4.50, meaning for many it is back above break-even levels.  Right now our benchmarking break-even for most of our producers on their upcoming 2014 corn crop is somewhere between $4.15 and $4.75 just depending on cash-rents and what the producers have allocated for their own labor expenses.  Bottom-line, producers who have made ZERO sales in 2014 are now faced with a tough decision, pull the trigger now on a portion of your estimated production and lock in either a small profit or a small loss...or go for one of the larger carnival prizes???                                     Click Here for my daily report....

Brazil's Second-Crop Corn Acres May Be Higher Than Most Estimating: We continue to hear talk form inside Brazil that the USDA and a large portion of the trade is underestimating the number of second-crop corn acres that are going to be planted in Brazil. This something we are going to be monitoring heavily in the days ahead. The drier weather pattern right now will only help Brazilian farmers get whatever they do plan on planting in the ground before the window closes around February 20th. After that, bulls will need to cross their fingers hoping that  the rainy season ends earlier than normal to upset the grain fill process.                         Click here for my daily report...

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