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Current Marketing Thoughts

RSS By: Kevin Van Trump, AgWeb.com

Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.

Is the early freeze still looming?

Sep 05, 2013

Weather remains the major "wild-card" still in the grain and soy markets. Even though there is very little in the forecast pointing to an "early-freeze" I suspect the market will soon start to focus its attention in that direction. The fear is, even with most of the Iowa corn crop close to "dent" it will still need 4-6 weeks to mature, especially those fields that are still in the "dough" or "milk" stage. Fast forward 4-6 weeks and you start to approach mid-October. Below is some interesting freeze data I had the guys in the office gather. As you can see from the data we are quickly approaching the possibilities of a freeze event. Understand what I am saying here. The market, especially the soy market, has been trading "weather hype" for the past three weeks. During this time period we have added $2.00 plus to the price of soybeans. The markets (especially the funds) tend to be creatures of habit, therefore my hunch is the trade will continue to look for "hype" until ALL possible options are exhausted. With that being said, you have to believe "freezing" temps will become the next logical "patsy."  Whats crazy is I can't remember a single time a "freeze" headline has lived up to its "hype" or produced the damage it had originally touted.  Remember though, this market is NOT trading the facts, its trading the "hype," and until that scenario changes I am going to respect the upside potential and look for the next bull story to be a chilly one.         

IOWA

  • Burlington, IA - Avg. Freeze Date Oct 18th - Earliest Freeze ever Sept 26th 1984
  • Cedar Rapids, IA - Avg. Freeze Date Oct 8th - Earliest Sept 15th 2007
  • Carroll, IA - Avg. Freeze Date Sept. 29th - Earliest Sept 3rd 1974
  • Davenport, IA - Avg. Freeze Date Oct 6th - Earliest Sept 23rd 2012
  • Des Moines, IA - Avg. Freeze Date Oct 12th - Earliest Sept 22nd 1995
  • Iowa City, IA - Avg. Freeze Date Oct 10th - Earliest Sept 14th 1923
  • Mason City, IA - Avg. Freeze Date Oct 1st - Earliest Aug 30th 1915
  • Red Oak, IA - Avg. Freeze Date Oct 5th - Earliest Sept 15th 1993

ILLINOIS

  • Bloomington, IL - Avg. Freeze Date Oct 13th - Earliest Sept 11th 1917
  • Carbondale, IL - Avg. Freeze Date Oct 14th - Earliest Oct 2nd 2003
  • Champaign, IL - Avg. Freeze Date Oct 5th - Earliest Sept 15th 2007
  • Chicago, IL - Avg. Freeze Date Oct 13th - Earliest Sept 22nd 1995
  • Decatur, IL - Avg. Freeze Date Oct 16th - Earliest Oct 2nd 2003
  • Peoria, IL - Avg. Freeze Date Oct 17th - Earliest Sept 20th 1991
  • Quincy, IL - Avg. Freeze Date Oct 21st - Earliest Sept 26th 1928

MINNESOTA

  • Duluth, MN - Avg. Freeze Date Aug 29th - Earliest Aug 2nd 1918
  • Owatonna, MN - Avg. Freeze Date Sept 30th - Earliest Sept 3rd 1974
  • Rochester, MN - Avg. Freeze Date Sept 29th - Earliest Aug 30th 1915
  • St. Paul, MN - Avg. Freeze Date Oct 10th - Earliest Seot 24th 2000

NORTH DAKOTA

  • Arbilla, ND - Avg. Freeze Date Sept 12th - Earliest Aug 28th 1965
  • Bismarck, ND - Avg. Freeze Date Sept 21st - Earliest Sept 1st 1974
  • Fargo, ND - Avg. Freeze Date Sept 26th - Earliest Aug 23rd 1891
  • Minot, ND - Avg. Freeze Date Sept 25th - Earliest Aug 20th 2004

WISCONSIN

  • Hayward, WI - Avg. Freeze Date Sept 15th - Earliest Aug 21st 2004
  • Madison, WI - Avg. Freeze Date Sept 30th - Earliest Sept 12th 1955
  •  

  • Wausau, WI - Avg. Freeze Date Sept 29th - Earliest Sept 11th 1943

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