Sep 17, 2014
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RSS By: Kevin Van Trump, AgWeb.com

Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.

Soybean Bulls Look for Tighter Supplies in USDA Data Dump...

Jun 11, 2014

Soybean bulls are not only talking about the possibility of tighter US supplies following todays data dump by the USDA, but also increasing logistical problems out of South America. Not only is there a strike in Argentina that has kept over 125 grain ships from entering or exiting the main grain hub of Rosario, but now there is talk that "dredging" problems at the Port of Santos in Brazil is preventing many ships from docking at some terminals, More specifically there is talk that soybean cargoes leaving the country are either leaving partially filled or being forced to wait until high tide to sail. CLICK HERE for my daily report...

USDA Soybean Preview: There is some talk by the bulls that the USDA's initial soybean yield estimate of 45.2 bushels per acre might be lowered a touch. For the life of me I can't understand why they are saying this when you consider  we are seeing almost ideal growing conditions.  Lets not forget five years ago we harvested a 44 bushel per acre yield, so don't fool yourself into believing it's not at all possible. Yes, I even debate the number myself when you consider 82 million plus acres may end up going in the ground, but we certainly can't rule a 45 bushel yield out of the realm of possibilities. As for old-crop, the consensus seems to be for a slight reduction in an already tight situation. How much will the USDA increase their current crush and export estimates? Will the import numbers be eased back a touch considering the delays? Will there be any really adjustment made to the global supply and demand situation?  My guess is for not much of an overall change in the balance sheets. Perhaps maybe a move down closer to 125 million bushels, which seems to be the bare minimum the USDA will project, but the "potential" for a huge new-crop is definitely around the next corner.         CLICK HERE for my daily report.....   

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