It was a relatively quiet trading session for corn and wheat ahead of Friday’s WASDE report. Soybeans however found the first meaningful day of support in two weeks, probably from short covering ahead of the report release.
Even though soybeans were sharply higher, soybean oil was sharply lower. This was a direct result of the proposed FDA banning of all Trans Fat in processed foods today. This could potentially impact up to 16% of the domestic oil consumption. Of course meal found support from this very same news as export demand has remained strong and this puts could put extra stress on crush profitability.
Weekly export sales were released this morning and are as follows:
EXPORT SALE ESTIMATES:
Estimated Range Actual
Corn 1.0 – 1.3 million MT 1.718 million MT
Soybeans 0.8 – 1.1 million MT 1.018 million MT
Wheat 350k – 500k MT 0.416 million MT
Corn sales were well above expectations but the market still couldn’t respond positively. In our opinion this is because even if the final export demand increases by 200-300 million bushels, it still leaves us with a hefty carryout. On the September WASDE report, the USDA was estimating corn exports at 1.225 billion bushels. The total export sales to date accumulate to 71.5% of that estimate which is above the 5 year average of 46.4%. The USDA will likely raise that estimate slightly just to "keep pace" with the extra supply. The pace of soybean sales is even more dramatic. They have already contracted 89.2% of the current USDA estimate for 2013, this compares to the 5 year average at 59.6%. Either China will end up slowing down dramatically as they did last year or our exports will come in higher.
USDA REPORT ESTIMATES:
The report estimates have been flowing in and as an average they are well below Informa’s estimates. In fact they are not much higher than what the USDA was estimating in September, even though field data and crop ratings have improved dramatically. In our opinion the analyst guesses are too low which increases the chance of seeing a bearish market reaction.
The average corn yield estimate is 158.933 and final production of 14.003 billion. The September report was 155.3 and final production of 13.843 billion. These yield and production estimates indicate a corn acreage loss of just over one million. We have to remember that the November report is historically very accurate. Whatever the report says will have a big impact on price, especially between now and January when the next stocks report is released.
Soybean estimates are also running below Informa’s on average. The poll has final soybean yield at 42.407 with a final production of 3.221 billion. This also indicates an acreage loss this time for 445,000.
Between the corn and soybean estimates, there are a lot of moving parts to achieve these "relatively" low final production estimates stated above. The weekly USDA Crop Progress reports have already showed a significant increase in crop ratings during this same timeframe. We are bearish corn for two reasons, abundant supply and curbed demand from three years of high prices. We think demand is overstated for corn already and will have trouble achieving the higher feed without sustaining lower levels over a period of time. Soybeans prices will still depend heavily on South American production, but the high acres and good start down there have already resulted in a drop in Chicago prices.
The number one goal is to protect farm profitability before the report. We use the AgYield software for looking at this for each individual farmer. Try the software today at agyield.com. Have a great weekend!
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