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August 2010 Archive for EHedger Report

RSS By: Dustin Johnson

Dustin works with a wide net of large producers throughout the Midwest. His analytical market approach and objective hedge strategy development is specific to the needs of every individual.

EHedger Closing Grain Commentary 8/31/10

Aug 31, 2010

Corn/wheat/beans all finished lower with wheat/beans the downside leaders. Corn and soybean crop ratings remained unchanged in yesterday's report.  This was the main cause for weakness overnight. After a choppy, 2 sided trade throughout the day beans and wheat traded sharply lower into the close. 

The market tried to hold strength today but was unable.  Wheat was the first one that tried to rally and couldn't keep the strength. Then corn tried to take out the highs and couldn't do it.  Finally meal tried to take out the highs and couldn't do it.  Once the outside markets traded lower the market lost its support and sold off into the close.  When beans/wheat got to double digit losses it put corn lower.  The specs are already long everything so it was likely a day of liquidation, especially since it is the last day of the month.

There are a lot of emails circulating around the marketplace about early yields being poor for corn. Today the emails were a little bit more 2-sided. We would just like to mention as of today very little corn has been harvested.  So it is probably too early to write off the corn crop just yet.  In the next 10-15 days we should see a lot of combines starting to roll and we should start to get a much better idea of how corn yields are holding up.

The US corn crop is maturing very rapidly, and we should see a record amount of corn harvested in the next 30-45 days.  We believe this could put some strong downside pressure on the market during this timeframe.  Even though we are bullish corn, there are a few things we are concerned about. Firstly most participants in the marketplace are assuming we are going down in national corn yields from the last USDA estimate. So if national yields don't go down or in fact go up, it would be a huge bearish surprise to the marketplace. The next production report is on September 10th, even if national corn yield ends up being lower it may not be reflected in this report.  With the marketplace holding near-record long positions and with a rapid harvest pace likely, we could easily trigger a larger sell-off than expected.  We like our current hedge positions at this time.

 

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Also learn about our acclaimed AMMO Program that helps producers optimize their marketing strategies using the premier tools and insights in the industry.

  

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Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of E Hedger, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees, or agents. Recipients assume the risk of reliance on and indemnify and hold E Hedger harmless for any and all losses, costs, or tax consequences incurred as a result of their use of market information.

EHedger Closing Grain Commentary 8/30/10

Aug 30, 2010

Corn and wheat both closed higher while soybeans finished lower.  All three markets opened higher while corn/wheat were the upside leaders. Quality concerns in the wheat market due to excessive rains in Germany and other parts of Europe caused European markets to rally overnight. This spilled over into our markets causing wheat to be up as much as 33 cents higher at one point in the day.

Corn had an impressive day closing above several technical levels.  This attracted additional fund type buying, and kept corn supported throughout the day.  Soybeans followed corn/wheat early throughout the day but were unable to hold support closing lower.

Grain export inspections were solid for corn/wheat and on low side for soybeans.  Crop ratings were unchanged for both corn/soybeans, which was viewed as bearish since most were expecting a decline in both crops.

There are a lot of emails circulating around the marketplace about early yields being poor for corn.  We would just like to mention as of today very little corn has been harvested.  So it is probably too early to write off the corn crop just yet.  In the next 10-15 days we should see a lot of combines starting to roll and we should start to get a much better idea of how corn yields are holding up.

The US corn crop is maturing very rapidly, and we should see a record amount of corn harvested in the next 30-45 days.  We believe this could put some strong downside pressure on the market during this timeframe.  Even though we are bullish corn, there are a few things we are concerned about. Firstly most participants in the marketplace are assuming we are going down in national corn yields from the last USDA estimate. So if national yields don’t go down or in fact go up, it would be a huge bearish surprise to the marketplace. The next production report is on September 10th, even if national corn yield ends up being lower it may not be reflected in this report.  With the marketplace holding near-record long positions and with a rapid harvest pace likely, we could easily trigger a larger sell-off than expected.  We like our current hedge positions at this time.

Get More From EHedger.

 

Our commentaries are just one part of our whole risk management service. Please go to http://www.ehedger.com/getmore.html for a free two-week trial of our full member website that gives you access to all our hedge and marketing recommendations, educational tools, market snapshots and much more.

Also learn about our acclaimed AMMO Program that helps producers optimize their marketing strategies using the premier tools and insights in the industry.

 

Get Organized. Get Ahead. Get EHedger

 

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of E Hedger, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees, or agents. Recipients assume the risk of reliance on and indemnify and hold E Hedger harmless for any and all losses, costs, or tax consequences incurred as a result of their use of market information.

 

EHedger Closing Grain Commentary 8/27/10

Aug 27, 2010

 

It was a strong day for the grains after this week’s choppy trade.
Outside markets kept grains on the defensive for the first half of the week. Strong sales and a weaker dollar kept grains supported Thursday/Friday. For the week corn is down ¼ cent, November soybeans were up 22, and December wheat was down 17.
Today’s strength in equities/commodities came after Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke’s speech which basically said the Fed would take action if necessary to support the US economy.
The Commitment of Traders report shows that the Large Spec Trader decreased their net long position on corn by 14047 contracts (Futures and Options combined.) For soybeans they decreased their net long position by 8029 contracts. For all-wheat they increased their net long position by 6,957 contracts. The funds still hold sizeable net long positions in corn/wheat/beans.
Early yield reports continue to come in below year-ago numbers for corn and above year ago numbers for soybeans. It is obviously still very early and we will have to see if this trend continues. Corn continues to be supported by good demand, uncertainty on the final crop size and on the fact that corn needs to "buy" acres next year.  Until there is more evidence on the crop size, it will be hard for the corn market to fall apart.  At the same time, we are just beginning harvest and the speculators have near-record "long" positions.  This combination could easily cause a large sell-off from these levels as we head further into harvest.  The cash markets have already started to separate from the futures as basis levels have plummeted in recent weeks.  This could spill over into the futures markets and cause a sell-off over the next 30-45 days.  Once harvest is over, corn should remain relatively strong as we head into next spring.
Soybean basis levels have dropped sharply as fresh soybean supplies are beginning to filter in from the Delta.  Early yield reports look promising and we still believe that the national soybean yield is going up from the latest USDA estimates.  Soybean options continue to be priced at historically low levels.  This means that producers can buy puts or calls at very cheap levels.  We currently have on November calls to protect our sales.  Soybeans puts are also very cheap and would be a good alternative for producers who don't want to make additional sales at this time but still want downside protection.

Wheat was the weakest of the three this week.  The wheat market is on a large break coming from a large rally.  Prices are currently at mid-level of the highs and lows and looking for direction.  Prices are being set for crop insurance right now and by Sep. 15 we will know the Guarantee price.  As long as prices remain here or higher during that timeframe, we should see a sharp increase in acres.  This is weighing on prices.  The still unknown size of the Russian crop and how the export ban will affect our exports is supporting prices at these levels.  Our exports have picked up, but will need to increase from current levels to justify these prices.  I think we are sitting good on our hedges for now.

EHedger Closing Grain Commentary 8/25/10

Aug 25, 2010

 

Wednesday's trading session saw December corn settle ½ cent lower at $4.20 while the November bean contract finished the day unchanged at $9.99.  The Chicago wheat contract was weak for the majority of the day and ended up settling just off the lows in the December contract down 27 ¼ at $6.80.

 

There was nothing in the way of fresh news to influence the day's trading session. It appears that there is positioning ahead of Friday's September option expiration in both the corn and bean market. The $4.00 level in September corn and $10.00 level in September beans are key areas to watch as we head into Friday's expiration. The break in the wheat market in our opinion is linked to the fact that from a cash standpoint we are still non-competitive in the USA compared to other global suppliers.

 

Tomorrow morning at 7:00am CST we will have a Census Crush report. The Census Crush estimate is between 127.5-129.0. The June crush number was 129.17. We will release the crush number in our EHedger Morning commentary.

 

Also, the USDA will release its weekly export sales numbers tomorrow morning at 7:30am. The estimate for corn sales is between 650,000mt-1,450,000mt. The sales estimates for beans are between 750,000mt-1,100,000mt. The wheat sales are estimated to be between 550,000mt-900,000mt. We will release the actual sales numbers in all of EHedger Morning and afternoon commentaries. 

 

I have talked about how long the funds have been in previous letters. When the funds get this long, there is a risk the price drops on liquidation. On top of this we are starting to see flight-to-quality in the outside markets. If we get harvest pressure at the same time as pressure from outside markets, grains could see more weakness than expected. I'm not saying this will happen, but it is important to be hedged, especially at levels which are profitable for many producers.

 

We do think corn has the tightest fundamentals but we don't like going into harvest unprotected. We are still working to buy corn calls on a break to cover current hedges. For those producers that need to get caught up on sales please call your broker to discuss current strategies.

 

 

 

 

Get More From EHedger.

 

Our commentaries are just one part of our whole risk management service. Please go to http://www.ehedger.com/getmore.html for a free two-week trial of our full member website that gives you access to all our hedge and marketing recommendations, educational tools, market snapshots and much more.

Also learn about our acclaimed AMMO Program that helps producers optimize their marketing strategies using the premier tools and insights in the industry.

 

Get Organized. Get Ahead. Get EHedger

 

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of E Hedger, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees, or agents. Recipients assume the risk of reliance on and indemnify and hold E Hedger harmless for any and all losses, costs, or tax consequences incurred as a result of their use of market information.

 

Closing Grain Commentary 8/23/10

Aug 23, 2010

Corn and beans were mixed today while wheat rallied.  December corn finished 3 ½, November soybeans finished up 1 ½, and December wheat finished up 13 ½.

Weekly export inspections this morning came back as expected for corn/wheat, and at the high end of trade guesses for soybeans. Today was a relatively quiet day compared to recent market activity. Outside markets were relatively stable as well with the dollar finishing up 165 and the S&P down 4.75. 

Tonight we may see some weakness in corn after they increased the crop condition rating today from 69 good-to-excellent up to 70. Many were expecting this to decrease not increase. Soybeans good-to-excellent rating decreased from 66 percent to 64 percent. Spring wheat is 53% harvested while the 5 year average is 60%.

The Commitment of Traders report shows that the funds are still heavy buyers in this market. The large speculator's net long position with futures and options increased by another 300,355,000 bushels to 1.853 Billion Bushels! For soybeans another 45 million bushels were bought in the beans alone not to mention similar increases in soy meal/oil. Just a reminder when the funds get this long there is a risk the price drops on liquidation. Even though the fundamentals may be bullish for corn these guys are already massively long. With that said, we do think corn has the tightest fundamentals but we don't like going into harvest unprotected. We are still working to buy corn calls on a break.

We recommend staying with current levels of protection (see hedge recommendations.) For those producers that need to get caught up on sales please call your broker to discuss current strategies.

 

Get More From EHedger.

 

Our commentaries are just one part of our whole risk management service. Please go to http://www.ehedger.com/getmore.html for a free two-week trial of our full member website that gives you access to all our hedge and marketing recommendations, educational tools, market snapshots and much more.

Also learn about our acclaimed AMMO Program that helps producers optimize their marketing strategies using the premier tools and insights in the industry.

  

Get Organized. Get Ahead. Get EHedger

 

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of E Hedger, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees, or agents. Recipients assume the risk of reliance on and indemnify and hold E Hedger harmless for any and all losses, costs, or tax consequences incurred as a result of their use of market information.

Closing Grain Commentary 8/19/10

Aug 19, 2010

 

Corn and soybeans break on bullish news while wheat rallies ahead of tomorrow’s Stats Canada report.

Coming into the day the opening calls were higher for corn, beans, and wheat after the weekly export sales came in bullish. Exports for corn were at 2,888,600 MTs, well above expectations. Soybeans were at 2,231,100 MTs and wheat was at 1,412,500. After opening higher we quickly saw heavy resistance. By the time the market closed we were down 4 in December corn and 18 ½ in November soybeans. December wheat was up 25 ½ on the day.

Wheat’s strength came after rumors that Russia may have to now import 5 Million MTs of grain to cover their shortage. This report was then denounced by Russia’s ag ministry. The Canadian Wheat Board’s Stats Canada will be released tomorrow morning. They have already stated that all the information may not be reflected in the report as to how much acreage was lost last spring.

The weather forecast has improved for corn/soybeans and this helped contribute to the weakness today. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour wraps up today with its last stops. Overall pod counts have been on average higher than last year and corn yield estimates have been lower.

When talking with producers we continue to hear more and more stories of variability in the corn crop. There are fields that have the potential to bring back record yields and also fields that may be below trend-line. SDS has also started to pop up in many of the wetter areas across Iowa/Illinois.

The question is how long can the funds keep this buying up heading into harvest? They continue to hold massive long positions and against the normal seasonal trend. We do think the new crop corn still has to buy acres but the problem is the timing, it might not be a buy until after harvest. We recommend staying with current levels of protection (see hedge recommendations.) For those producers that need to get caught up on sales please call your broker to discuss current strategies.

Get More From EHedger.

 

Our commentaries are just one part of our whole risk management service. Please go to http://www.ehedger.com/getmore.html for a free two-week trial of our full member website that gives you access to all our hedge and marketing recommendations, educational tools, market snapshots and much more.

Also learn about our acclaimed AMMO Program that helps producers optimize their marketing strategies using the premier tools and insights in the industry.

 

Get Organized. Get Ahead. Get EHedger

 

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of E Hedger, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees, or agents. Recipients assume the risk of reliance on and indemnify and hold E Hedger harmless for any and all losses, costs, or tax consequences incurred as a result of their use of market information.

 

 

 

 

EHedger Closing Grain Commentary 8/18/10

Aug 18, 2010

Corn and wheat were able to finish higher today while beans settled 11 ¼ cents lower in the November contract at $10.30 ¾. The December corn contract settled the day 3 ¼ higher at $4.33 ¼. Lastly the December Chicago wheat contract settled 5 cents higher at $6.88 ¾. Tomorrow morning at 7:30 am the USDA will release weekly export sales for corn, wheat, and beans. The estimates for corn sales are between 1,200,000mt- 2,300,000mt. Soybeans sales are estimated to be between 1,200,000mt - 2,500,000mt. Wheat sales are estimated to be between 800,000mt - 1,350,000mt. We will release all of the sales numbers in tomorrow mornings EHedger morning commentaries.

This morning the USDA announced the sale of 240,000mt of US corn to Egypt for 2010-2011 delivery.

SDS is starting to pop up pretty heavily over the wettest sections of Iowa and Illinois. It is still too early to tell how bad the situation actually is. Pro Farmer information has started to flow in. So far for Indiana pod counts are 15% above a year ago, and corn yields are down 3% from last year. Today they reported higher corn yields in Illinois. They went on to say that there are signs of crop stress in corn/soybeans from the high temps in recent weeks but pod counts are in-line with last year and the 3-year average (Illinois.) We will continue to monitor the information coming out of the fields.

When talking with producers we continue to hear more and more stories of variability in the corn crop. There are fields that have the potential to bring back record yields and also fields that may be below trend-line.

The question is how long can the funds keep this buying up heading into harvest? They continue to hold massive long positions and against the normal seasonal trend. We do think the new crop corn still has to buy acres but the problem is the timing, it might not be a buy until after harvest.

For those producers that need to get caught up on sales please call your broker to discuss current strategies.

 

Get More From EHedger.

 

Our commentaries are just one part of our whole risk management service. Please go to http://www.ehedger.com/getmore.html for a free two-week trial of our full member website that gives you access to all our hedge and marketing recommendations, educational tools, market snapshots and much more.

Also learn about our acclaimed AMMO Program that helps producers optimize their marketing strategies using the premier tools and insights in the industry.

  

Get Organized. Get Ahead. Get EHedger

 

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of E Hedger, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees, or agents. Recipients assume the risk of reliance on and indemnify and hold E Hedger harmless for any and all losses, costs, or tax consequences incurred as a result of their use of market information.

EHedger Closing Grain Commentary 8/17/10

Aug 17, 2010

Corn and soybeans had a two-sided trade today before finishing sharply higher. This morning wheat opened up sharply higher before reversing and trading towards the lows at the end of the day. December wheat finished down 12 ½ cents at $6.83 ¾.

The USDA announced the sales of 110,000 MTs of US soybeans to an unknown buyer for 2010-11 delivery and 121,920 MTs of US corn to Japan for 2010-11 delivery.

SDS is starting to pop up pretty heavily over the wettest sections of Iowa and Illinois. This news helped rally soybean futures late in the day. It is still too early to tell how bad the situation actually is. Pro Farmer information has started to flow in. So far for Indiana pod counts are 15% above a year ago, and corn yields are down 3% last year. We will continue to monitor the information coming out of the fields.

When talking with producers we continue to hear more and more stories of variability in the corn crop. There are fields that have the potential to bring back record yields and also fields that may be below trend-line.

The question is how long can the funds keep this buying up heading into harvest? They continue to hold massive long positions and against the normal seasonal trend. We do think the new crop corn still has to buy acres but the problem is the timing, it might not be a buy until after harvest.

For those producers that need to get caught up on sales please call your broker to discuss current strategies.

Get More From EHedger.

 

Our commentaries are just one part of our whole risk management service. Please go to http://www.ehedger.com/getmore.html for a free two-week trial of our full member website that gives you access to all our hedge and marketing recommendations, educational tools, market snapshots and much more.

Also learn about our acclaimed AMMO Program that helps producers optimize their marketing strategies using the premier tools and insights in the industry.

 

Get Organized. Get Ahead. Get EHedger

 

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of E Hedger, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees, or agents. Recipients assume the risk of reliance on and indemnify and hold E Hedger harmless for any and all losses, costs, or tax consequences incurred as a result of their use of market information.

 

EHedger Closing Grain Commentary 8/13/10

Aug 13, 2010

 

More follow through buying today for corn and beans but a quick sell-off in the old crop wheat.  On the week December corn was up 7 ¼, November beans up 10 ½, and December wheat was down 21 cents. 

 

Today’s COT tells the story as we see Large Speculative traders are now net long an additional 48,600 contracts of corn, 16,186 contracts of soybeans, and 3,695 contracts of combined wheat. With futures and options this makes their total net long positions over 1.52 billion bushels of corn which is 11.6% of expected 2010 US production. For Soybeans the numbers are even more staggering. With combined soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil, the large spec traders are long approx 935 million bushels of beans which is about 27% of expected US production. For combined wheat they are net long over 445 million bushels or 19.6% of US production. The question is how long can they keep this buying up heading into harvest? They are going against a seasonal trend of breaking prices this time of year. We do think the new crop corn still has to buy acres but the problem is the timing, it might not be a buy until after harvest.     

 

The key going forward is weather and fund activity.  We will have to continue to monitor the situation to see how much rain we get in the much needed areas of the delta and southern mid-west.

 

I know we have been talking about it in previous letters but I still want to stress the importance of staying hedged in this market. You can see from the numbers that the funds are still taking large bets and the question is what happens when they exit the market? If you need margin room we can talk about moving any marginal positions over to the cash market. Capital preservation and staying power for hedges are very important.

 

For those producers that need to get caught up on sales having resting orders in above the market is never a bad idea. Please give us a call if you have any questions about strategies to take advantage of these price levels.

 

Get More From EHedger.

 

Our commentaries are just one part of our whole risk management service. Please go to http://www.ehedger.com/getmore.html for a free two-week trial of our full member website that gives you access to all our hedge and marketing recommendations, educational tools, market snapshots and much more.

Also learn about our acclaimed AMMO Program that helps producers optimize their marketing strategies using the premier tools and insights in the industry.

 

Get Organized. Get Ahead. Get EHedger

 

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of E Hedger, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees, or agents. Recipients assume the risk of reliance on and indemnify and hold E Hedger harmless for any and all losses, costs, or tax consequences incurred as a result of their use of market information.

 

 

 

 

Closing Grain Commentary 8/10/10

Aug 10, 2010

Grains fell sharply today after higher dollar trade and profit taking ahead of the report.

This morning we started the day weaker continued from the overnight trade and closed towards the lows of the day. There was more bear spreading in the wheat which suggests more profit taking ahead of the USDA report. The estimates for Thursday’s report are located below.

This morning the USDA announced the sales of another 400,000 tonnes of US soybeans to China, 180,000 to an unknown destination, and 100,000 to Egypt. Egypt also bought 120,000 tonnes of US Wheat. Even with this in-flow of demand November Beans managed to finish 13 cents lower on the day. This is likely due to the fact there are still massive longs in the market, and we are seeing position squaring/profit taking before Thursday morning. We could see more of this tomorrow.

The weather forecast has improved as well. Many of the dry areas are going to get much needed rain relief and the wet areas could see some drying. We are getting closer to harvest and crop conditions are still showing high good-to-excellent ratings which many analysts were calling for more deterioration.

The main thing we like to stress is not to lift any hedges at this point. If you need margin room we can talk about moving any marginal positions over to the cash market. Capital preservation and staying power for hedges are very important. **Check the latest corn recommendation** 

For those producers that need to get caught up on sales having resting orders in above the markets is never a bad idea. Please give us a call if you have any questions about strategies to take advantage of these price levels.

Reports:  Chinese Stocks Report (expected to be released anywhere from now until the middle of August) , USDA Supply and Demand along with Production (August 12th.)

 

 

Get More From EHedger.

 

Our commentaries are just one part of our whole risk management service. Please go to http://www.ehedger.com/getmore.html for a free two-week trial of our full member website that gives you access to all our hedge and marketing recommendations, educational tools, market snapshots and much more.

Also learn about our acclaimed AMMO Program that helps producers optimize their marketing strategies using the premier tools and insights in the industry.

 

Get Organized. Get Ahead. Get EHedger

 

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of E Hedger, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees, or agents. Recipients assume the risk of reliance on and indemnify and hold E Hedger harmless for any and all losses, costs, or tax consequences incurred as a result of their use of market information.

 

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