Apr 16, 2014
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Farmland Forecast

RSS By: Marc Schober, AgWeb.com

Marc Schober is the editor of Farmland Forecast an educational blog devoted to investments in agriculture and farmland.

USDA Weekly Exports: Wheat Sales Hit Marketing Year Low

Apr 10, 2014

U.S. wheat sales declined sharply reaching a marketing year low and have declined nine out of the last ten weeks. Wheat exports increased slightly from the past week. Corn sales and export levels declined, but reported levels are well above those seen in 2013 and 2012.

Soybean sales increased slightly and have been on the rebound following the marketing year low reported for the week ending March 20th. Soybean exports increased for only the third time in the past ten weeks, but they have been well above levels for this time in previous years. Over 40 million metric tons of soybeans have been exported thus far in the 2013/2014 marketing year, a 22% increase from this time last year.

Weekly U.S. net corn sales for the week ending April 3rd in the 2013/2014 marketing year were 658,700 metrics tons (MT), a 31% decrease from the previous week and a 43% decrease from the prior 10-week average. Increases were reported from South Korea, Japan, Colombia, Israel, Guatemala, Costa Rica, and Egypt. Decreases were reported from unknown destinations, China, and Brazil. Exports were 1,217,400 MT, a 15% decrease from the prior week, but a 23% increase from the prior 10-week average. The primary destinations were Japan, Egypt, Mexico, South Korea, Colombia, Taiwan, and Venezuela.

Weekly net soybean sales were 79,100 MT, a 19% increase from the previous week, but a 72% decrease from the prior 10-week average. Increases were reported from Mexico, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and Indonesia. Decreases were reported from unknown destinations. Exports were 700,400 MT, a 6% increase from the prior week and 45% decrease from the prior 10-week average. Primary destinations were China, Japan, Mexico, Egypt, Indonesia, and South Korea.

Weekly net wheat sales were 41,800 MT, an 88% decrease from the previous week and a 92% decrease from the prior 10-week average. Increases were reported from the Philippines, Mexico, Peru, Algeria, Brazil, Guatemala, and Indonesia. Decreases were reported from unknown destinations and Vietnam. Exports were 553,600 MT, a 6% decrease from the prior week and a 20% increase from the prior 10-week average. Primary destinations were Nigeria, Peru, Mexico, Thailand, The Philippines, and Guatemala.

4 10 14 Sales

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

4 10 14 Exports

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

For daily articles on farmland and agriculture, visit http://www.farmlandforecast.com/

WASDE, Exports Lower Corn and Soybean Stocks

Apr 09, 2014

The acceleration of U.S. soybean exports has put pressure on an already depleted stocks situation. The 2014 soybean stocks-to-use ratio has dropped from 4.4% in March to 4.0% this month. The estimated record Brazilian soybean crop was expected to take pressure off the U.S., but the drought that has plagued South America decreased production estimates for the largest soybean producer in the world. A supply relief is expected later in the year due to the increase in U.S. soybean planted acres reported in the March Prospective Plantings Report.

An interesting corn demand story has begun to develop as domestic feed use for the first half of the year is already 73% of the estimated total of 5.300 billion bushels. This is in line with the past three years, but recall that the summers of 2011 and 2012 experienced rising corn prices and tight supplies, and 2013 experienced unpredictable supply availability. In short, corn availability during the second half of the year was minimal during the last three years. If corn has a more steady availability through the summer months, usage should become more stable and increase above the projected 5.300 billion bushels. 

Corn

U.S. corn ending stocks for the 2013/14 marketing year were projected 125 million bushels lower to 1.331 billion bushels, due primarily to increased export demand. Exports for U.S. corn in the 2013/14 marketing year were increased by 125 million bushels to 1.750 billion bushels. The season-average farm price for corn was raised 10 cents at the midpoint and the projected range was narrowed to $4.40 to $4.80 per bushel.

World corn production was increased by 6.4 million tons due to increases for Brazil, South Africa, and Russia.
 
WASDE Ending Stocks April 2014
 
Soybeans

U.S. Soybean exports for 2013/14 were estimated at 1.580 billion bushels, up 50 million bushels from last month reflecting the record pace of shipments and sales since the beginning of the year. Exports to China have already surpassed last year's marketing year record. Imports are expected to be a record 65 million bushels due to large expected shipments from South America in the second half of the marketing year.

Projected ending stocks for 2013/14 soybeans were lowered 10 million bushels to 135 million bushels and the stock-to-use ratio was 4.0%, compared to 4.5% last month. The 2013/14 season-average price range was raised 5 cents at the midpoint to $12.50 to $13.50.

Soybean production in Brazil was lowered to 87.5 million tons from 88.5 million tons, due to the drought affecting South America. 

Wheat

U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2013/14 were increased by 25 million bushels to 583 million. The ending stocks increase was attributed mainly to a reduction in feed and residual use. The season-average farm price for all wheat was unchanged at $6.75 to $6.95 per bushel.

Outlook 
 
Ending stocks were the highlight of this report as stocks dropped for both corn and soybeans, although the decreases were at the lower end of analysts estimated range. Global demand for U.S. corn and soybeans continues to grow and we will be tracking the export market in the second half of the year. 

The coldest winter in over 30 years could keep farmers sidelined through the beginning of the planting season as cold and wet soil does not present optimal growing conditions for row crops. Final decisions will be made in the coming months on the crop to be planted and we will keep a keen eye on the corn to soybean planted ratio. 

- Colvin 
 
For daily articles on farmland and agriculture, visit www.farmlandforecast.com 

USDA Weekly Exports: Corn Exports Continue to Increase

Apr 03, 2014

Corn exports increased to the second highest level of the 2013/2014 marketing year. Soybeans exports continued to decline consistent with the trend seen over the past month. The quarterly Grain Stocks report released Monday showed domestic stocks of soybean and wheat down in comparison to 2013, while corn stocks were reportedly up 30%. The USDA Prospective Planting report was also released Monday. The report showed a large shift to soybean planted acres, a move that had been speculated by most analysts.

Weekly U.S. net corn sales for the week ending March 27th in the 2013/2014 marketing year were 960,600 metrics tons (MT), a 32% decrease from the previous week and a 16% decrease from the prior 10-week average. Increases were reported from Japan, South Korea, Egypt, Guatemala, Colombia, Taiwan, Saudi Arabia, and Mexico. Decreases were reported from China, Honduras and Nicaragua. Exports were 1,425,700 MT, a 16% increase from the prior week and a 54% increase from the prior 10-week average. The primary destinations were Japan, Egypt, Mexico, Colombia, South Korea, Taiwan, and Saudi Arabia.

Weekly net soybean sales were 66,200 MT, a 456% increase from the previous week, but an 81% decrease from the prior 10-week average. Increases were reported from Mexico Malaysia, Japan, and Indonesia. Decreases were reported from Unknown Destinations. Exports were 659,400 MT, an 8% decrease from the prior week and 52% decrease from the prior 10-week average. Primary destinations were China, Mexico, Turkey, Indonesia, and Malaysia.

Weekly net wheat sales were 336,400 MT, a 16% decrease from the previous week and a 34% decrease from the prior 10-week average. Increases were reported from Indonesia, Egypt, Nigeria, Brazil, and Unknown destinations. Decreases were reported from Guatemala. Exports were 523,100 MT, a 1% decrease from the prior week, but a 16% increase from the prior 10-week average. Primary destinations were Japan, Mexico, Indonesia, Egypt, South Korea, and Nigeria.

4 3 14 Sales

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

4 3 14 Exports

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

For daily articles on farmland and agriculture, visit http://www.farmlandforecast.com/

 

USDA Weekly Exports: Week to Week Sales and Exports Decrease

Mar 13, 2014

Sales and exports declined week over week for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Corn and wheat exports remained above their 10-week average. Soybean exports fell below 1 million bushels for the first time since early October.

Weekly U.S. net corn sales for the week ending March 6th in the 2013/2014 marketing year were 683,400 metrics tons (MT), a 55% decrease from the previous week and a 29% decrease from the prior 10-week average. Increases were reported from Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Colombia, and Mexico. Decreases were reported from Unknown Destinations, and China. Exports were 907,400 MT, a 20% decrease from the prior week, but a 9% increase from the prior 10-week average. The primary destinations were Japan, Taiwan, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and Peru.

Weekly net soybean sales were 113,500 MT, an 85% decrease from the previous week and a 77% decrease from the prior 10-week average. Increases were reported from Mexico, Japan, Taiwan, Colombia, and Mexico. Decreases were reported from Unknown Destinations and China. Exports were 863,200 MT, a 26% decrease from the prior week and 45% decrease from the prior 10-week average. Primary destinations were China, Mexico, Japan, Taiwan, and Egypt.

Weekly net wheat sales were 476,900 MT, a 14% increase from the previous week, but a 7% increase from the prior 10-week average. Increases were reported from Nigeria, Taiwan, Indonesia, Thailand, Mexico, Japan, and Vietnam. Decreases were reported from Unknown Destinations. Exports were 455,700 MT, a 28% decrease from the prior week, but a 5% increase from the prior 10-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, Indonesia, Japan, the Philippines, and Israel.

3 13 14 Sales
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

3 13 14 Export
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

For daily articles on farmland and agriculture, visit http://www.farmlandforecast.com/
 

WASDE: Grain Exports Less than Expected

Mar 10, 2014

Corn and soybean supplies were reduced due to strong export demand, although futures dropped from six-month highs as analysts expected a larger reduction. The stocks-to-use ratio for soybeans declined to 4.4%, only a 16-day supply, due to strong demand from China. The U.S. wheat balance sheets were unchanged from last month.


Corn

U.S. corn ending stocks for the 2013/14 marketing year were projected 25 million bushels lower to 1.456 billion bushels, due primarily to increased exports. Exports for U.S. corn in the 2013/14 marketing year were increased by 25 million bushels to 1.625 billion bushels, due to a rise in world demand and an increase in shipments in recent weeks. The season-average farm price for corn was narrowed 5 cents on both ends of the projected range to $4.25 to $4.75 per bushel.

World corn production was increased to 967.52 million tons, compared with 966.63 million forecast last month. Production in Brazil and Argentina were unchanged at 70 million tons and 24 million tons, respectively.

WASDE Ending Stocks March 2014

Soybeans

U.S. Soybean exports for 2013/14 were projected at a record 1.53 billion bushels, up 20 million bushels from last month reflecting the record pace of shipments and sales through February. Soybean imports were raised 5 million bushels to 35 million bushels. 

Projected ending stocks for 2013/14 soybeans were lowered 5 million bushels to 145 million bushels and the stock-to-use ratio is now only 4.5%, although analysts were expecting a larger reduction to 141 million bushels. The 2013/14 season-average price range was projected at $12.20 to $13.70, up 25 cents on both ends.

Soybean production for Brazil was reduced to 88.5 million tons from 90 million tons, due to the late-season drought in South America. Soybean production was also reduced for Paraguay by 1.2 million tons due to the dry weather.

Wheat

U.S. wheat balance sheets were unchanged from last month. Global wheat supplies for 2013/14 were increased slightly due to a 0.8 million ton increase in world production, coming from Australia and India.

The season-average farm price for all wheat was increased 10 cents on the bottom end of the range to $6.75 to $6.95 per bushel.

Outlook 

China and other grain importers have taken advantage of the low grain prices in the U.S., although the futures market was expecting a larger increase. Soybean production in South America continues to be strained by heat and drought, with some private estimates well below the USDA by over 10%.

The grain market continues to watch the unrest in Ukraine, although export markets are become more comfortable with the situation. Odessa and four other Black Sea ports, which handle 87% of Ukrainian grain exports, are not in Crimea and unlikely to be disrupted. 

The next major report is the USDA's Prospective Plantings Report coming out on March 31, 2014.
 
For daily articles on farmland and agriculture, visit www.farmlandforecast.com
 
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