Jul 30, 2014
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Hedging Corn and Soybeans

RSS By: Howard Tyllas, AgWeb.com

Howard Tyllas is currently a member of the Chicago Board of Trade and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a floor broker and as a Commodity Trading Advisor.

WASDE Report for 7/11/14

Jul 11, 2014

  

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OILSEEDS:  U.S. oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at 113.1 million tons, up 5.0 million tons with higher soybean production accounting for most of the change.  Soybean production is projected at a record 3,800 million bushels, up 165 million due to increased harvested area.  Harvested area, forecast at 84.1 million acres in the June 30 Acreage report, is 3.6 million above the June forecast.  The soybean yield is projected at 45.2 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month.  Soybean supplies are 180 million bushels above last month’s forecast due to higher beginning stocks and production.  Soybean crush is projected at 1,755 million bushels, up 40 million reflecting increased domestic soybean meal disappearance in line with adjustments for 2013/14 and higher U.S. soybean meal exports that offset lower projected exports for India.  Soybean exports for 2014/15 are raised 50 million bushels to 1,675 million reflecting record U.S. supplies and lower prices.  U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 415 million bushels, up 90 million.  If realized, projected stocks would be the highest since 2006/07.
 
Prices for soybeans and products for 2014/15 are all reduced.  The U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $9.50 to $11.50 per bushel, down 25 cents on both ends of the range.  Soybean meal prices are projected at $350 to $390 per short ton, down 5 dollars on both ends.  The soybean oil price range is projected at 36 to 40 cents per pound, down 1 cent on both ends.
 
Global oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at a record 521.9 million tons, up 5.8 million from last month with soybeans and rapeseed accounting for most of the change.  Global soybean production is projected at 304.8 million tons, up 4.8 million mostly due to higher production in the United States.  Higher soybean production is also projected for Russia and Ukraine, both reflecting higher harvested area.  Lower soybean production for India resulting from reduced harvested area partly offsets these gains.  Harvested area is reduced based on planting delays resulting from the slow development of the monsoon in the main soybean producing states.  Rapeseed production is raised for Canada based on higher planted area reported by Statistics Canada.  Rapeseed production is also raised for Australia on higher area and yield.  Global oilseed ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 99.7 million tons, up 3.6 million mostly reflecting a sharp increase in U.S. soybean stocks.
 
U.S. soybean crush for 2013/14 is raised 25 million bushels to 1,725 million on both increased soybean meal exports and domestic soybean meal use.  Soybean exports for 2013/14 are projected at 1,620 million bushels, up 20 million reflecting record shipments through early July.  Seed use is raised and residual is reduced based on indications from the June 30 Acreage and Grain Stocks reports, respectively.  Soybean ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected at 140 million bushels, up 15 million.
 
COARSE GRAINS:  Projected 2014/15 U.S. feed grain supplies are raised with increases for corn and sorghum beginning stocks and higher expected sorghum production.  Corn production is projected 75 million bushels lower based on harvested acres from the June 30 Acreage report.  The national average corn yield remains projected at a record 165.3 bushels per acre.  Favorable early July crop conditions and weather support an outlook for record yields across most of the Corn Belt, however, for much of the crop, the critical pollination period will be during middle and late July.  At the projected 13,860 million bushels, this year’s crop remains just 65 million bushels below last year’s record.    
 
Corn use changes for 2014/15 are limited to a 50-million-bushel reduction in expected feed and residual use based on the lower production projection and higher projected sorghum feed and residual use.  Sorghum food, seed, and industrial use, exports, and ending stocks are also raised for 2014/15 with sorghum production projected up 50 million bushels on the higher area reported in the Acreage report.  Corn ending stocks are projected up 75 million bushels with a higher carryin and lower feed and residual use more than offsetting the small acreage-driven decline in production.  The projected range for the season-average corn price is lowered 20 cents on each end to $3.65 to $4.35 per bushel.  Lower farm prices are also projected for sorghum, barley, and oats.
 
A number of 2013/14 feed grain supply and use changes are made this month reflecting June 1 stocks estimates from the June 30 Grain Stocks and based on final marketing-year barley and oats trade data from the U.S. Census Bureau.  Projected corn feed and residual use is lowered 125 million bushels based on lower-than-expected March-May disappearance as indicated by the June 1 stocks.  Corn used to produce ethanol is projected 25 million bushels higher based on the pace of ethanol production to date and lower projected sorghum food, seed, and industrial use, most of which is for ethanol.  Sorghum exports are projected up 10 million bushels reflecting continued steady export sales and the large 2013/14 outstanding sales balance.  Projected 2013/14 farm prices for corn and sorghum are lowered this month as favorable weather for developing 2014 crops reduce summer price prospects.
 
Global coarse grain supplies for 2014/15 are projected 7.0 million tons higher with larger beginning stocks for the United States, Brazil, and China and larger production for China, the EU, Ukraine, Russia, and Serbia.  Lower corn production for the United States and lower corn, barley, and oats production for Canada partly offset this month’s increases in world coarse grain output.  World barley production is higher with larger crops expected in Ukraine and Russia.  Foreign corn production for 2014/15 is raised 1.7 million tons.  China corn production is up 2.0 million tons on higher expected area.  China 2013/14 corn production is also raised, up 0.8 million tons based on the latest government estimates that include higher area.  EU 2014/15 corn production is raised 0.4 million with larger crops expected in Germany and France.  Serbia corn production is also raised 0.3 million tons.  Partly offsetting is a 0.9-million-ton reduction in Canada corn reflecting the lower planted area recently reported by Statistics Canada.  Brazil corn production is unchanged for 2014/15, but raised 2.0 million tons for 2013/14 based on higher area indications for second crop corn.
 
Global 2014/15 corn trade is nearly unchanged with a reduction for Canada exports partly offset by an increase for Serbia.  For 2013/14, world corn trade is raised with higher imports for the EU and South Korea more than offsetting a reduction for China.  Corn exports for 2013/14 are raised for Canada, the EU, and Russia.  Global corn consumption is lowered slightly for both 2013/14 and 2014/15 mostly reflecting the lower U.S. feed and residual use projections. Global 2014/15 corn ending stocks are projected 5.4 million tons higher with increases for China, Brazil, and the United States more than offsetting the Canada reduction.
 
 
WHEAT:  Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2014/15 are raised this month with a sharp increase in forecast Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat more than offsetting a decrease for Hard Red Winter (HRW).  The HRW crop was damaged by drought and April freezes in the Southern and Central plains; however, the HRS crop in the Northern Plains has benefitted from abundant soil moisture and cooler than normal early summer temperatures.  Yields for Durum and other spring wheat are forecast to be above average.  Feed and residual use for all wheat in 2014/15 is lowered 15 million bushels to 145 million as tight supplies of HRW wheat and relatively more attractive prices for feed grains reduce expected feed and residual use.  All wheat exports for 2014/15 are lowered 25 million bushels reflecting expectations of large world supplies and strong competition in export markets.  Ending stocks are projected 86 million bushels higher.  The projected season-average farm price range is lowered 40 cents at the midpoint to $6.00 to $7.20 per bushel.  
 
Global wheat supplies for 2014/15 are raised 1.8 million tons with increased production more than offsetting lower beginning stocks.  World production is raised 3.6 million tons to 705.2 million.  This is down 9.0 million tons from last year but still the second largest production on record.  The biggest foreign increases are 1.6 million tons for the EU and 1.0 million tons for Ukraine both due to continued favorable weather.  Production is raised 0.5 million tons for Australia based on the latest government indications for area.  Production is also raised 0.3 million tons each for Brazil and Serbia.  Partly offsetting this month’s production increases is a reduction of 1.0 million tons for Kazakhstan due to June dryness and a decline of 0.5 million tons for Canada based on the latest area indications from Statistics Canada.
 
Global wheat consumption is raised 0.9 million tons with increased wheat feeding for the EU and higher food use for several countries.  EU wheat feeding is raised 1.0 million tons as wheat quality is expected to suffer in the lower Danube region because of excessive rainfall in recent weeks.  Feeding reductions for Kazakhstan, Egypt, and Thailand are partly offsetting.  Food use is raised for Indonesia, Sudan, Morocco, and Bangladesh but lowered for Egypt.  Global wheat trade for 2014/15 is lowered with exports reduced 1.0 million tons for Kazakhstan and 0.7 million for the United States.  Partly offsetting increases in exports are made for Australia, Ukraine, and Serbia with improved crop prospects.  EU imports are lowered 0.5 million tons due in part to larger expected supplies of feed quality wheat in Bulgaria and Romania.  Imports are also lowered for Egypt and Mexico, but raised for Sudan, Indonesia, and Nigeria.  With supplies rising faster than use, global ending stocks are raised 0.9 million tons and remain at a 3-year high.
 
 
RICE:  U.S. all rice supplies in 2014/15 are raised 12.5 million cwt or nearly 5 percent to 279.8 million, the highest since 2010/11, as beginning stocks and production are raised 0.5 million and 13.0 million, respectively.  Conversely, the import forecast is lowered 1.0 million cwt to 21.0 million.  All rice production for 2014/15 is forecast at 226.0 million cwt, up 13.0 million or 6 percent due entirely to an increase in area.  All rice average yield is estimated at 7,469 pounds per acre, nearly the same as last month, but 3 percent below record 2013/14.  All rice total use for 2014/15 is raised 10.0 million cwt or 4 percent to 240.0 million, the highest since 2010/11, as domestic and residual use and exports are each increased 5.0 million to 133.0 million and 107.0 million, respectively.  Ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 39.8 million cwt, up 2.5 million.
 
Changes to U.S. 2013/14 rice supply and use include larger imports, lower domestic and residual use, larger exports, and higher ending stocks.  All rice imports for 2013/14 are forecast at 23.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million from last month, due mostly to an unexpectedly large May shipment of broken rice from Thailand reported by the Bureau of the Census.  Domestic and residual use for 2013/14 is lowered 1.0 million cwt to 123.0 million based largely on NASS’ Rice Stocks report showing larger than expected stocks as of June 1.  Exports for 2013/14 are raised 1.5 million cwt to 93.5 million based on data from the Bureau of the Census through May and data from the weekly U.S. Export Sales report through early July.
 
The 2014/15 U.S. long-grain rice season-average farm price is projected at $12.00 to $13.00 per cwt, down 80 cents per cwt on each end of the range from last month.  The 2014/15 combined medium- and short-grain price is projected at $17.00 to $18.00 per cwt, down $1.20 per cwt from a month ago.  The 2014/15 all rice price is projected at $13.50 to $14.50 per cwt, down 90 cents per cwt on each end of the range from last month.  Larger domestic supplies of both long-grain rice and medium-grain rice along with plentiful supplies among most of the major global exporters will exert downward pressure on prices.
 
Global 2014/15 rice supplies are reduced due to both lower beginning stocks and production.  Beginning stocks for 2014/15 are lowered 0.6 million tons due chiefly to reductions for China and the Philippines, partially offset by an increase for Vietnam.  Global production is projected at a record 479.4 million tons, down 1.3 million from last month owing mostly to a decrease in India, partially offset by increases for Vietnam and the United States.  India’s 2014/15 rice crop is projected at 104.0 million tons, down 2.0 million from last month attributed to the slow and erratic start to the Southwest Monsoon.  Global trade and consumption are changed little from a month ago.  U.S. 2014/15 exports are raised 160,000 tons from a month ago.  World ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 108.5 million tons, down 2.1 million from last month, and 3.0 million below the revised 2013/14 stocks forecast.  Ending stocks projections for 2014/15 are lowered for India, China, and the Philippines, partially offsetting increases for Brazil, Vietnam, and the United States.
 
 
SUGAR:  The Mexico 2013/14 estimate for sugar production is reduced by 75,000 metric tons (MT) to 6.025 million, based on very close to end-of-harvest reporting from Mexican authorities.  The 2013/14 estimate of exports is increased by 80,000 MT based on industry reporting of increased exports to non-U.S. destinations.  No other changes were made, implying ending stocks at 663,000 MT, for a low stocks-to-consumption ratio of 15.4 percent.  The Mexico 2014/15 forecast of production is lowered to 6.140 million MT based on expected reduced harvested area, and average sugar yields.  Imports are forecast to increase 224,000 MT to cover domestic consumption in that period before the harvest begins in late November.  Because consumption and ending stocks forecasts are unchanged, exports are forecast 291,000 MT lower at 1.616 million.  
 
The U.S. 2013/14 beet sugar production is lowered by 50,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 4.750 million, based on an expected slow start of 2014/15 harvesting in September.  Imports are increased by 89,000 STRV due to the reallocation of the tariff-rate quota (TRQ) by USTR.  Total deliveries are increased by 90,000 STRV based on pace.  These events imply lower ending stocks, estimated at 1.808 million STRV with stocks-to-use at 14.5 percent.  The U.S. 2014/15 sugar production is forecast 130,000 STRV lower due to revised cane sugar processors’ forecasts.  Total production is forecast at 8.225 million STRV.  Imports from Mexico are reduced to 1.877 million STRV, down 234,000 STRV.  Deliveries for human consumption are increased by 50,000 STRV, based on modest growth from the previous year.  Ending stocks are forecast at 1.447 million STRV for a stocks-to-use ratio of 11.9 percent.
 
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:  The forecast for total meat production in 2014 is raised from last month.  Beef production is raised on higher steer and heifer and cow slaughter and slightly higher carcass weights.  Pork production is lowered as USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated a slower-than-expected expansion in farrowings during the second quarter.  This implies lower than previously forecast hog slaughter later in the year, but strong hog prices and lower feed costs are expected to provide incentives to feed hogs to heavier weights.  No change was made to broiler production as the production expansion remains muted.  Turkey production is raised on higher second-quarter production. Egg production is raised on strong table egg prices and lower feed costs.  For 2015, beef and broiler production is forecast higher, but pork production is forecast lower.  Cattle slaughter is forecast higher in early 2015 based on 2014 placements.  Pork production is reduced as supplies of market hogs will remain relatively tight.  Broiler production is forecast higher as lower expected feed costs support a more rapid increase in production.
 
Forecasts for 2014 and 2015 beef imports are raised as demand for processing grade beef remains strong.  Exports for 2014 are raised on recent data.  Pork imports for 2014 are reduced slightly.  Despite high prices, pork exports remain robust and forecasts for both 2014 and 2015 are raised.  Broiler and turkey exports are raised for 2014 based on May data, but forecasts for 2015 are unchanged from last month. 
 
Cattle and hog price forecasts for 2014 are raised from last month on the strength of demand.  Broiler price forecasts for both 2014 and 2015 are unchanged from last month.  The turkey price forecast for 2014 is raised based on June price data, but the egg price is reduced.  The hog price forecast is raised for 2015 on expectations of tighter supplies and continued strong demand.  Prices for cattle, broilers, turkey, and eggs are unchanged at the midpoint for 2015.   
 
The milk production forecast for 2014 is lowered from last month as slower growth in output per cow more than offsets a more rapid expansion in cow numbers.  The forecast for 2015 is raised as higher milk prices and lower feed costs are expected to support more rapid growth in cow numbers and output per cow.  Export forecasts for 2014 are lowered on a fat basis but raised on a skim-solids basis.  High domestic butter prices are expected to limit export opportunities, but nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder (NDM/SMP) exports are expected to remain strong.  For 2015, no change is forecast to fat-basis exports, but strength in NDM/SMP sales will help support higher skim-solids exports.  
 
Product prices are forecast higher for 2014 with strength in butter prices expected to carry into 2015.  Despite increased production, robust domestic demand and stronger NDM/SMP exports will support prices.  Class III and Class IV prices for 2014 are raised on stronger component product prices and the Class IV price forecast for 2015 is raised reflecting strength in butter prices.  The all milk price is forecast at $23.25 to $23.55 per cwt for 2014, and $19.75 to $20.75 per cwt for 2015.
 
COTTON:  The 2014/15 U.S. cotton forecasts show sharply higher production and ending stocks relative to last month.  Expected production is raised 1.5 million bales to 16.5 million due to larger planted area indicated in the June 30 Acreage report and lower expected abandonment based on favorable precipitation and improved crop conditions.  Domestic mill use is raised 100,000 bales due to expanding domestic mill capacity, while exports are raised 500,000 bales due to the larger available supply.  Despite the higher disappearance, ending stocks are raised to 5.2 million bales which, if realized, would be the largest since 2008/09.  The forecast range for the marketing-year average price received by producers is 60 to 76 cents per pound, with a midpoint of 68 cents, a 5-year low.
 
A combination of higher estimated beginning stocks, higher production, and lower consumption raise projected 2014/15 global ending stocks by 3.0 million bales this month.  World beginning stocks are raised nearly 1.6 million bales due mainly to higher estimated 2013/14 production for Brazil and lower consumption for China and Pakistan.  China’s consumption is reduced 1.0 million bales for 2013/14 and 500,000 bales for 2014/15, as high domestic price levels and uncertainty about future policies have discouraged cotton use in textiles in favor of polyester.  However, China’s consumption is expected to grow nearly 6 percent in 2014/15 as a result of the announced elimination of government price supports.  For 2014/15, world production is raised 500,000 bales, as the forecast increase for the United States is partially offset by lower production for India, Australia, and Brazil.  Aggregate world trade is about unchanged from last month, but exports are raised for the United States, Australia, and Brazil and reduced for several other exporting countries.  World stocks for 2014/15 are now projected at 105.7 million bales.
 

 

 


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