Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 18, 2013 at 4:50 am.  Grains futures are higher this morning in a quiet overnight session. June, July and August soybean crush must be down 19% to make USDA’s numbers work on the last S+D balance sheet. In other terms, that means 1 out every 5 processing plants must be closed completely during this period. Trade will have to deal with the question, can we import enough soybeans to meet crushing needs? The late planting of soybeans could also create a hole in supply during late Aug and Sep. Planting progress was in line with trade estimates at 85% complete as of Sunday. Soybean conditions are starting the season at 64% which was a little better than what trade was expecting. Corn conditions improved 1% to 64% good to excellent. The June 28 Planted Acreage and Quarterly Stocks Reports will create positioning volatility over the next 9 days. July corn is expected to trade independent of the new crop contracts. Farmers are strong holders and will not clean out their bins until they see corn tasseling. Weather forecasts are being watched closely as traders remember last summer’s rally starting on June 18. Boxed beef was higher on Monday with choice up 1.66 and select up .24. Cash cattle markets were quiet. The feeder index was up .18 to 136.32.  Futures found support due to short covering and buy stops. The July hog futures are now at a sizable discount to the cash price. Pork cutout values were up .50 on Monday. Technically, lean futures are overbought and live cattle futures are oversold. Stay in touch with your Allendale Broker and remember to sign up for the June Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar.

Yesterday’s poll asked, "What price will Dec corn hit first?"

$4.50 – 67.4%

$6.50 – 32.6%

Thank you for your participation!

Markets as of 4:50 AM

• Jul #Corn    +2
• Jul #Beans   +2 1/4
• Jul #Wheat   +5 1/4
• Aug #Cattle  -.22
• Jul #Hogs    +.17
• Sep Dlr     -.10
• Sep S&P     +5.75
• Jul Crude   -.18
• Aug Gold    -6.00

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Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 17, 2013  at 5:00 am. Grains futures are mostly lower except for the July corn contract. Later today we will be getting 2 very important reports. At 11AM, NOPA will release their May data. Trade average estimate is for crush to be 118.1 million bushel which would be 15% below the same period a year ago. Even with this type of reduction, Sept through May is 2.7% above year ago levels. With adjustments on the June S+D, they changed their projection to 2.7% lower crush for the year. Tight farmer holding of soybeans is making for a very interesting old crop market for soybeans and corn. Basis closed out the week on a firmer note. The trade will also be watching planting progress for soybeans this afternoon where the expectation is for 87 to 90% completion. There will be no more planting data for corn. However trade is expecting an improvement of 1 to 3 % in the G/E category. The weather forecast has the next system moving across the Midwest starting Wednesday through Friday. Traders are now looking at "rain makes grain" as bearish. Funds, last week, reduced long corn positions by 8431 contracts and increased long positions by 12,258 contracts. We expect volatility to continue in the old crop/new crop spreads. Boxed beef was lower on Friday with choice down 1.10 and select down .58. Cash cattle closed out the week trading mostly 2.00 lower at 120.00. The feeder cattle index was up .14 to 136.14. The June lean hog futures went off the board at 102.30 which is over 4.00 higher than the July contract. Pork cutout was 3.31 on Friday. Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar will be held on June 25.

What level will corn prices hit first? Take our one question poll

Markets as of 5:00 AM

• Jul #Corn    +1 3/4
• Jul #Beans   -7 1/4
• Jul #Wheat   -1 1/2
• Aug #Cattle  Steady-Lower
• Jul #Hogs    Steady-Higher
• Sep Dlr     +.04
• Sep S&P     +15.00
• Jul Crude   +.75
• Aug Gold    -2.10

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Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 14, 2013 at 5:00 am.  Grains futures are higher with spreading as the main feature. Old crop futures are leading the rally in corn and soybeans. Export sales were a non-event yesterday as rumors of Chinese cancellations were circulating through the trade but we still don’t have a confirmation yet. The weather forecast has lighter amounts of rain all the way through the 15 day period. We were getting reports from MN and ND late yesterday that planters were running where light rain had occurred. Another MN producer said he thought he saw Noah looking at a couple of his cows for the Ark. Goldman lowered price projections for corn and soybeans and recommended a short position in new crop corn and soybeans in their basket of trades. Argentina Farmers are due to stop moving grain on Saturday through Wednesday as a way of protesting economic policy. Some exporters are becoming concerned about keeping the pipeline full. Cash corn basis at Midwest processors and exporters is stronger. Japan bought 157,000 mt food grade wheat from the US and other origins in their weekly tender. South Korea bought 60,000 mt of corn from South America and another 50,000 mt from optional origin. Lower cash cattle bids are weighing on futures although there has been no confirmation of active movement. Choice beef was down 1.16 and select was up .06. There were no deliveries against the June Live Cattle contract. Cash hogs remain strong which is providing support to the nearby futures. The IA-MN hog value reached a level not seen since August of 2011. The June contract goes off the board this afternoon. Pork values are driven by tight hog supplies and retail demand. Next week will be very import as there are several economic reports and the release of the FOMC meeting minutes. Will the Fed send a signal of change in current policy?

Markets as of 5:00 AM

• Jul Corn    +4 1/2
• Jul Beans   +8 3/4
• Jul Wheat   -2 3/4
• Aug Cattle  -.22
• Jul Hogs    -.10
• Sep Dlr     +.15
• Sep S&P     +4.00
• Jul Crude   +.25
• Aug Gold    +.70

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Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 13, 2013 at 5:00 am.  Grains futures are mostly lower. Some weather models are now forecasting less rain in the 6 to 10 day period. Funds are looking for a new catalyst to provide incentive for them to reestablish long positions. The USDA did not change many numbers on yesterday’s supply and demand report. The 2012/2013 crush number was increased by 25 million bushels. They increased soybean imports by 5 million bushels and lowered exports by 20 million while keeping ending stocks the same as last month at 125 million bushels. The USDA made no change in 2013/14 soybean acreage and yield which was in line with Allendale’s research. Corn acreage was kept the same as the March 31st intentions report but the USDA lowered yield to 156.5 from 158 bushels per acre. Trader focus now switches to the Planted Acreage report for corn and soybeans on June 28. We will also get quarterly stocks report on the same day. The USDA raised wheat production mostly in the HRW but lowered ending stocks due to an increase in wheat exports. Argentine farmers go on strike Saturday through Wednesday but the event is not expected to effect crush and export. The Dec corn and July Minneapolis wheat closed below the 50 day moving average on Wednesday. At 7:30, USDA will release the weekly export sales data. The following estimates (thousand metric tonnes) have been collected by Reuters. 

There have been no cattle deliveries against the June futures contract with oldest date August 3, 2012. Packer’s bids are developing in the south at 120. Packer margins are in the black which could provide underlying support. Boxed beef values were mixed with choice down 1.20 and select up .15. The feeder cattle index is 135.83, down .05. Pork futures continue to set new contract highs as packers are aggressive buyers of cash hogs. Retailers are buying ahead for the July 4th holiday. Pork cutout values were up 1.96. Today’s economic reports include the jobless report, business inventories, and retail sales. Make sure you get in on the special pricing for the Allendale Advisory Report before it ends on Friday. Subscribe today!

Markets as of 5:00 AM

• Jul Corn    +1 3/4
• Jul Beans   -6 1/4
• Jul Wheat   – 1/4
• Aug Cattle  +.37
• Jul Hogs    +.30
• Sep Dlr     -.17
• Sep S&P     -7.00
• Jul Crude   -.29
• Aug Gold    -7.00

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Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 12, 2013 at 5:00 am.  Grains futures are mixed in a quiet overnight session. Grain markets are in a back and fill mode ahead of the USDA Supply and Demand report which will be released at 11:00 am central time. Traders are not expecting much adjustment in old crop stocks however the focus is on the new crop corn ending stock. Will the USDA make an adjustment for late planting and potential prevent planting? History suggests they will likely make a small adjustment if any on this report. They will likely wait until the results of the Planted Acreage report at the end of the month are tallied. Recent USDA actions, however, have surprised the trade.

Farmers in Argentina will suspend grain sales starting Saturday through Wednesday to protest economic policies.

There were no deliveries of cattle against the June futures contract on Tuesday. Cattle futures rebound on short covering and found support from lean hogs setting a 2 year high. Retailers are aggressive buyers for the July 4^th holiday featuring. Hog futures are overbought and a corrective sell-off could occur at any time. Boxed beef was mixed on Tuesday with choice down .19 and select up .72. The feeder index is 135.88 up .30. Cash hogs are higher with pork cutout values up another 1.38. Make sure you get in on the special pricing of the Allendale Advisory Report it ends soon. Subscribe today!

Markets as of 5:00 AM

• Jul #Corn    +1
• Jul #Beans   +6 3/4
• Jul #Wheat   -4 1/2
• Aug #Cattle  +.60
• Jul #Hogs    +.85
• Sep Dlr     +.10
• Sep S&P     +7.00
• Jul Crude   -.03
• Aug Gold    -1.30

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If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538.

Contact Allendale:

Email: service@allendale-inc.com