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November 2012 Archive for The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Profit Taking Ahead of Weekend Headline Jitters

Nov 30, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 30, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grains futures are lower this morning on profit taking and no new fundamental news. The CME announced overnight deliveries against the December contracts. There were 246 corn deliveries through July 10, 2012. Soybean oil had 2200 contracts delivered. Spreaders will be adjusting positions today as it is the time of the month when index funds roll from January to a deferred month. Rogers Fund has 2 more days then the Goldman Fund will start their roll next week. Farmer selling is basically non-existent. We expect this to continue through mid-December when farmers start moving grain to fill early 2013 contracts. Mississippi River basis was firm for soybeans and a little weaker for corn on Thursday. The Buenos Aries Exchange has estimated that 52.4% of the Argentine corn acreage has been planted which lags last year by 12.4%. They are estimating that 45.2% of the soybean acreage in Argentina has been planted which is behind last year by 11%. There have been more news reports suggesting Argentina farmers will plant more bean acres if the heavy rains that are forecasted hit the grain growing area this weekend. Spreaders will likely be a dominant factor as we go into the weekend. There will be more spin on the fiscal cliff negotiations which could affect the Sunday afternoon opening. Funds sold 7,000 corn, 3,000 wheat and bought 2,000 soybeans and meal. Poor margins and their ability to call in previously contracted cattle have packers lowering bids after early week purchases. The trade was expecting a much better performance in product this week. Choice was up .30 and select down .83. Technical indicators are suggesting an overbought condition. Cash hogs slipped today in the IA-MN market on light volume. Traders are worried about the premium of Dec futures to cash index. Pork cutout values were down .52. Look for more spread activity as we close out the week. Get all the price outlooks for 2013 at the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference on January 25 and 26, 2013. Reserve your seat TODAY
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    -2
Jan Beans   -11 1/2
Dec Wheat   -8 3/4
Dec Cattle -.20
Dec Hogs    -.22
Dec Dlr     -.06
Dec S+P     +1.50
Jan Crude   +.11
Dec Gold    +2.70
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Feb Lean Hogs is continuing to trade in its sharp upward channel. One thing that bulls of this market should be concerned with is we are struggling to find new buyers above $88.00.  In order to assume that we are beginning to see a top in this market I would like to see a close below $85.45…Frank La Placa 
 
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
China: Soybean buyers tell Reuters newswire they have another 3 to 4 million tonnes of soybeans to buy for first quarter needs. Crush margins have begun to improve in front of the coming peak demand period.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Grain Markets Respond to Headlines

Nov 29, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 29, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grains futures are higher as the dollar weakens. The uncertainty of the "fiscal cliff" negotiations in Washington and the actual implementation of the EU’s Greek bailout plan are keeping traders on edge. News headlines are going to be a market mover until a solution is found in Washington. Weekly export sales report will be released at 7:30 this morning. Trade estimates are: corn 450 to 650 tmt, soybeans 500 to 750 tmt, soymeal 150 to 250 tmt, soyoil 100 to 200 tmt and wheat 400 to 500 tmt. Traders are becoming more concerned about Brazil’s ability to ship a record crop of soybeans out of its ports which are already backlogged with corn movement. Nearly 70% of grain is moved by truck in Brazil and new legislation is mandating driver’s rest time. Government officials in Brazil are saying it may take 4 to 5 years to fix all the logistical problems. Ethanol production report yesterday showed a decline of 14% compared last year. The USDA corn usage numbers are suggesting a 10% decline year over year. The NOAA moisture graphs show that the western corn belt is 9 to 15 inches deficient of rainfall. We have been asked the question "How much of US sold grain has not yet been shipped?" Rich Nelson says corn stands at 40%, soybeans at 50% and wheat at 72% not yet shipped. Reuters reported that Barclays is considering quitting trading in agricultural commodities due to reputational risk. If so, they would join several German banks that have restricted investments in Ag products this year. USDA says soybean insurance premiums will be 6% lower than last year. Central IL bean basis fell 5 cents while corn basis improves along IL River. First notice day for the Dec contract tomorrow morning. Cattle packers are operating on a negative margin. Early week trade was a few cattle in Texas at 128. Packers have since reduced bids to124 and feedlots are asking 130. Beef prices have not strengthened as quickly as expected post-Thanksgiving. Choice beef was up .39 and select was up .93 on Wednesday. Pork cutout value was up .74 which has supported hog packer margins. Get all the price outlooks for 2013 at the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference on January 25 and 26, 2013. Reserve your seat TODAY
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    +2
Jan Beans   +8
Dec Wheat   +1 1/2
Dec Cattle +.10
Dec Hogs    +.20
Dec Dlr     -.21
Dec S+P     +8.50
Jan Crude   +1.09
Dec Gold    +7.50
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Live Cattle has slowed down its sharp impulsive rally over the last few days. Any weakness should first be approached as a correction in a bull market…Frank La Placa
 
 
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
An executive with Zen-Noh, Japan’s National Federation of Agricultural Co-Operative Associations, suggests corn imports from Brazil from their members will total 30% of all imports in the marketing year ending March 31. This is up from last year’s 6% share. US corn imports will fall from 86% of all imports to only 57%. This decline will mean actual imports of US corn will decline from 8.9 million tonnes to 5.7.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Quiet Trade Overnight

Nov 28, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 28, 2012 at 5:15 am. Grains futures are mostly lower on profit taking after the several day rallies. Corn and wheat have bounced off of lows on strength in Euro wheat. There is more talk of Ukraine slowing exports. Cash markets respond to corn’s highest close in 4 weeks with limited inquires by farmer and no pricing interest. However, gulf bids improve as traders wonder if China has bought more beans. The concern over low water levels on the Mississippi south of St Louis has the Illinois River basis slipping. The first notice day for December contracts is Friday. One would not expect any deliveries in corn but the delivery locations along the IL River could find an advantage knowing that the corn is not going to be loaded out of their facility. There is a small carry in the December/March spread. Weather forecasts for Argentina suggest more heavy rains on the way which would delay planting even further. The technical buying has supported grain futures with minimal selling at resistance. Funds were huge buyers yesterday in all grains. Watch headlines for direction today. A few cattle traded at 128 in Texas yesterday with most feedlots asking 130. Boxed beef was mixed with choice down .77 and select up .77. The premium of Dec futures to the cash index may be limiting upside potential. Pork cutout values were up 1.63 on Tuesday. Higher grain prices are driving livestock producer losses which could cause further herd liquidations. Get all the price outlooks for 2013 at the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference on January 25 and 26, 2013
 
The Allendale Ag Leaders Conference is only 2 months away. Reserve your seat TODAY.
 
Markets as of 5:15 AM
Dec Corn    + 3/4
Jan Beans   -4 3/4
Dec Wheat   - 1/4
Dec Cattle +.40
Dec Hogs    +.50
Dec Dlr     +.08
Dec S+P     -3.25
Jan Crude   -.51
Dec Gold    -3.80
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Mar Wheat exploded higher yesterday and has now confirmed the $8.45 low as the pivot low that must be broken in order to negate the recent strength. However, I still am approaching the wheat market with a level of caution due to the continued sideways trend and lack of follow through that we have seen at the highs…Frank La Placa
 
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Ukraine: The Agriculture Ministry reports grain exports between July 1 and November 26 total 11.51 million tonnes. Of that, wheat exports now total 5.42 mt. A further 382,000 tonnes is in ports preparing for shipment. That brings the total to 5.8 mt. This would be just over the 5.5 mt estimate the government verbally told exporters. This should now represent the exit of Ukraine from the wheat export market.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

EU Optimism Supports Markets

Nov 27, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 27, 2012 at 4:50 am. Grains futures are higher due to optimism after the Greece deal. The EU finance ministers agree on a package that cuts Greek debt to 124% of GDP by 2020 and will extend loans. The weekly crop conditions for wheat were lowered 1% by USDA this week to 33% good/excellent. This will be the poorest conditions going into dormancy for winter wheat on record. The current long term NOAA forecast suggests winter wheat conditions could worsen. It also implies above normal temps for the Midwest during corn and soybean planting. Weather conditions in South America have traders focusing on Argentina’s wet conditions. With the delay in corn planting there, traders are concerned about the timing of new crop harvest and the ability to fill world needs. However, December plantings are not too late for a good crop but it will be difficult to hit the March market with corn. Soybeans acres will likely increase in Argentina as they would in the US when plantings are delayed. Brazil is no longer the worry of traders as conditions there are mostly ideal. Export shipments out of South American ports are concerning to end users as some loading facilities are delayed 45 day or more. The direction of the US dollar will have an impact on trader sentiment as we move through the "fiscal cliff" negotiation and holiday trading volume. Livestock futures sold off yesterday on fund profit taking. Last week’s high will now be important resistance. We expect firm product markets this week on restocking by retailers. Choice beef was down .22 and select was down.14 on Monday. Pork cutout values were up .42. The Allendale Ag Leaders Conference is only 2 months away. Reserve your seat TODAY.
 
 
Markets as of 4.50 AM
Dec Corn    +4 1/2
Jan Beans   +10 1/2
Dec Wheat   +6 1/4
Dec Cattle +.30
Dec Hogs    -.50
Dec Dlr     +.07
Dec S+P     -1.00
Jan Crude   +.11
Dec Gold    -3.30
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
With yesterday’s break above the $14.28 level, I believe that this negates the downtrend and confirms the 11/16 $13.72 1/4 low as the pivot low that must be broken in order reconfirm the downtrend. If my call is correct and we have seen the beginning of a base and reversal, a sideways to slightly higher bias is advised…Frank La Placa
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The US grain trade expects USDA to revise down its 28 million tonne corn production estimate for Argentina. That could be seen on the next December 11 monthly supply/demand update. Some suggest there will be switching from corn to soybeans.
 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Demand Drives Post-Holiday Buying

Nov 26, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 26, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grains futures are higher as there is talk of demand improvement. China may be back looking for soybeans while disruptions in wheat supplies around the world are keeping markets supported. Farmer movement is expected to be limited for the next few weeks. Weather conditions in South America become more and more important in the upcoming weeks. Argentina has more rain in the forecast with already less than desirable planting conditions. As of Thursday, Argentina corn planting was 59% complete compared to 70% done last year and 73% average. Soybean planting was 47% done compared to 56% last year and 44% average. Wheat harvesting was 18% done compared to 22% last year at this time. We should be getting another wheat conditions report from the USDA this afternoon. Most traders are expecting lower good to excellent percentage. Forecasts for US hard red winter wheat have a dry biased weather pattern which will prevail through the next two weeks. Virtually no rain or snow will fall in western crop areas and the few rain showers that occur in the east will be too light and brief to have a meaningful impact on the region’s soil moisture. December options expired on Friday with 1215 745 calls being abandoned and 415 puts were exercised when the futures closed at 745 ½. The EU is confident that Greece will get its next tranche of money to prevent near term bankruptcy. Spain elections over the weekend may hamper Madrid’s ability to push through fiscal austerity. The US "fiscal cliff" talks will influence headlines in the week ahead. Livestock futures finished strong on Friday in anticipation of post-thanksgiving pickup in beef and pork demand. Choice beef was up 1.44 and select down .20. Pork cutout value was up .22 on Friday. Look for steady higher opening in livestock at 9:05. Join us at the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference on Jan 25 and 26.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    +6 3/4
Jan Beans   +6 3/4
Dec Wheat   +6
Dec Cattle Steady-Higher
Dec Hogs    Steady-Higher
Dec Dlr     +.00
Dec S+P     -5.50
Jan Crude   -.46
Dec Gold    -3.50
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
March Corn found support at the $7.14 level. This is the new level of support that must be broken in order to negate the latest recovery attempt. On the upside, I have $7.75 as the level of resistance that must be broken to negate the sideways range and assume a new bull market is under way…Frank La Placa
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, known simply as PMI, showed a reading of 50.4 in November. That was up from October’s 49.5. Not only was this higher than the previous month but a reading over 50.0 are seen as economic growth. This is the first time in 13 months of a positive number.
 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Grains Futures Open at 9:30

Nov 23, 2012

 

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 23, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grains futures are called steady better as macro markets provide support. Grain markets open at 9:30 this morning and close at noon. December options at CBOT stop trading today at the close. We expect some last minute trade adjusting as the largest open interest remains at the 7.00 and 7.50 strikes. Weekly export sales estimates will be released at 7:30. Traders are expecting 300 to 450 tmt of corn, 400 to 650 tmt of soybeans, 50 to 70 tmt of soyoil, 200 to 300 tmt of soymeal and 400 to 650 tmt of wheat. HSBC flash PMI for China was at a 13 month high. From the EU, international lenders will soon agree on an aid deal for Greece. It is expected that Japan will ease monetary policy again. Weather in South America is improving with rains falling in areas where needed. Cash cattle traded at 128 in the south. Boxed beef was higher with choice up .61 and select up .53. The USDA released cold storage stocks of pork on Wednesday afternoon at 606.2 million pounds. That was a drop of 4% from September but 24% higher than last year. Pork cutout values were up .43 on Wednesday. Join us at the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference on Jan 25 and 26.
 
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
The Jan Soybean market is trying to find a bottom here at the $14.00 level. I am looking for a close above $14.30 to negate the downtrend and confirm a recovery rally. However if we do see a close below $13.72 that would confirm another leg lower in Soybeans…Frank La Placa 
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Historically there is no set price consistency for grains between the day before and the day after Thanksgiving.
 
 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

 

Pre-Holiday Trade Volume In Grains

Nov 21, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 21, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grains futures are mixed in a light volume overnight session. Today we have regular trading hours at the CME for grains and livestock. Markets are closed tomorrow and will see limited trading hours on Friday. Open interest is still fairly large in the December corn 7.50 strikes. December grain options will stop trading on Friday at noon. New news for grains is very limited. Weather in South America is a little wetter for late next week. The forecast should give producers a chance to catch-up on planting. Weekly export sales will be released on Friday morning. Cash market basis is steady with farmer selling nonexistent. Ohio River basis was stronger on Tuesday while Illinois River was lower due to water levels on the Mississippi. Rich Nelson did a study on the day after Thanksgiving price movement in grains. Corn closed higher 4 out of last 6 years, wheat 5 out of last 6 years was higher and soybeans closed higher 3 out of last 6 years. The IMF has worked out a loan agreement with Egypt and it is likely Greece will get its next tranche of money by December 5. Cash cattle are expected to trade higher this week as packers put together numbers for next week. Choice beef was .11 higher and select was up .87 on Tuesday. Pork cutout values were down .36. Headlines out of Washington and EU will impact trader’s attitude until a decision is made on the "fiscal cliff." Allendale wishes all our readers and clients a safe and Happy Thanksgiving. Join us at the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference on Jan 25 and 26.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    - 1/4
Jan Beans   +4 1/2
Dec Wheat   -1 1/2
Dec Cattle +.20
Dec Hogs    +.15
Dec Dlr     +.08
Dec S+P     -.50
Jan Crude   +.80
Dec Gold    +3.00
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Dec Live Cattle has confirmed a base and reversal after closing above $126.65. Due to the markets proximity to the bottom of the trading range, we can now confirm an uptrend in Dec Live Cattle and should not be surprised by its higher pricing going forward…Frank La Placa
 
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Asian grain buyers are turning their focus to the US market. Japan, Taiwan, and others have more than 1.5 million tonnes of ordered Brazilian corn that has not been delayed due to port congestion.
 
 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Quiet Grain Markets Overnight

Nov 20, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 20, 2012 at 4:45 am. Grains futures are slightly lower on minor profit taking. We need corn buyers to find their way back to the US. Our 3 largest corn buyers Japan, South Korea and Taiwan purchases are down 36, 79 and 74%, respectively, compared to last year. The price difference between US and South America is still running $30 to $35 per tonne. We continue to hear of shipping delays out of Brazil. The US may have problems as the longshoremen in Portland are considering a strike for November 25. Soybean exports are running 33% above last year with soyoil sales up 195% and soymeal up 24% from 2011. Argentina is forecast to get some heavy rains this weekend but the 6 to 10 day outlook is dry again. Crop conditions in US wheat continue to slide. The good to excellent category fell another 2% to 34%. Kansas, the largest wheat producing state, rating fell by 3% in G/E. Technical oversold conditions were relieved by Monday’s rally. We expect more consolidation as the Thanksgiving Day holiday nears. Option expiration for December grain contracts is on Friday. Boxed beef was mixed again on Monday with choice up 1.15 and select down .15. Hog slaughter will drop sharply this week but processors should make up for any reduction next week. Pork cutout value was down .60. Seasonal trends are for higher livestock prices into second quarter of 2013. Join us at the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference on Jan 25 and 26.
 
 
Markets as of 4:45AM
Dec Corn    - 1/2
Jan Beans   -1
Dec Wheat   + 1/4
Dec Cattle +.20
Dec Hogs    +.05
Dec Dlr     -.02
Dec S+P     +.25
Jan Crude   -.31
Dec Gold    -1.40
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Dec Lean Hogs made new highs yesterday on the recent rally. We now have the summer high of $82.30 in our sights so we want to be conscience of any short term divergence in bullish momentum at such an elevated level…Frank La Placa
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Asian grain buyers are turning their focus to the US market. Japan, Taiwan, and others have more than 1.5 million tonnes of ordered Brazilian corn that has not been delayed due to port congestion.
 
 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Grains Bounce to Start Holiday Week

Nov 19, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 19, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grains futures rebound after last week’s sharp sell-off. Trading hours in the week ahead will be shortened by the observance of Thanksgiving on Thursday when markets are closed. Friday trading will be limited between the hours of 9:30 to 12:00 for grains. December options expire on Friday with largest current open interest at 7.00 in corn and 8.50 in wheat. EPA turns down several states request for waiver. The gamesmanship in Washington is working on trader’s commitment to carrying positions in commodities. The managed money last week reduced long positions in corn by 32,000 and soybeans by 39,000. We expect some position adjusting early in the week and volume to get lighter as we move closer to the holiday. Headlines out of Washington will influence markets as negotiations progress on the US budget. Weather in South America seems favorable for the time being. The USDA Cattle-on-Feed Report showed livestock producers are concerned about feed prices. The placements during October were the lowest since 1996, down 13% from last year. On feed was 95% of last year, while marketing’s were 103% of 2011. This report suggests tight beef supplies in early 2013. These numbers were in line with trade expectations. Beef prices on Friday were mixed with choice up .09 and select down .05. Pork cutout values were .93 higher. History suggests livestock futures could be volatile this week. Join us at the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference on Jan 25 and 26.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    +5 3/4
Jan Beans   +14
Dec Wheat   +6
Dec Cattle Steady-Higher
Dec Hogs    Steady-Higher
Dec Dlr     -.23
Dec S+P     +6.25
Jan Crude   +.89
Dec Gold    +8.30
 
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Dec Corn has started to build a level of support at the $7.10 level as we look to be building a new trading range between $7.10 and $7.32. A confirmed close above or below these levels should guide us on the next leg of our move…Frank La Placa
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The China National Grain and Oils Information Center confirms Chinese crushers have begun to cancel previously booked cargoes. Weak Chinese crush demand is cited. Reuters newswire suggests 600,000 tonnes, or 10 cargoes, were dropped from previously booked December or January delivery orders.
 
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Friday Starts Lower in Grains

Nov 16, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 16, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grains are lower as a risk off attitude circulates through the commodity markets. Export sales estimates for this morning are: corn 200 to 400 tmt, soybeans 250 to 550 tmt, soymeal 150 to 250 tmt, soyoil 20 to 50 tmt and wheat 250 to 450 tmt. The favorable South American weather and weak export demand is keeping a negative weight on grain futures. This week’s chart action is not a confidence builder for the bulls. Closing out this week on a negative note could cause even more liquidation thoughts later in the session today. The macro forces such as the White House’s attitude of increasing taxes rather than looking for ways of economic growth have investors reducing risk tolerance because of their concern about slower GDP growth or a "kick the can" approach to the fiscal cliff issues. The financial woes of the EU which fell into a recession status for the 3rd quarter and the Gaza turmoil add to the uncertainty and a reason for stock market sell-off. Basis continues to strengthen and demand is being filled by resellers. Farms have locked the bin doors and lower prices will not cause grain to move. We have been talking to our clients about taking some protection on 2013 crops. There are many option strategies which could be implemented. Call your Allendale representative now. The USDA Cattle-on-Feed will be released at 2:00 pm today. The trade average estimates are on feed 94.7%, Placed 87.4% and marketed 102.5% of a year ago. Boxed beef was lower with choice down .29 and select down 1.17. Pork cutout values were down .27 on Thursday. We expect some position evening in livestock today. Watch key chart points going into the close. Join us at the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference on Jan 25 and 26.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    -1 3/4
Jan Beans   -14 3/4
Dec Wheat   -1 1/4
Dec Cattle -.05
Dec Hogs    -.10
Dec Dlr     +.16
Dec S+P     -4.75
Dec Crude   -.30
Dec Gold    -5.50
 
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Dec Live Cattle has continued it sideways range at the lower edge of its trading channel. If the recent lows hold here, I do expect Live Cattle to attempt a recovery from these levels…Frank La Placa 
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
US: Despite industry talk about US corn being priced competitive now, we cannot say the narrower gap is enough to jump US corn sales. There is a $37 gap between the two on a port to port basis. Even after considering our cheaper freight to Asia, the numbers are still not right.
 
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Holiday Trade Arrives Early

Nov 15, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 15, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grains are mixed in a quiet overnight session. Export sales data will be released on Friday morning due to the Veterans Day holiday last Monday. Markets have been relatively quiet as the major index rolls are complete and the holidays approach. Next week the grain markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving and will trade on Friday the 23rd from 9:30 am to 12:00 pm. With the uncertainty of the US financial situation, traders are reluctant to build positions. The weak 2 day rally in grains will likely have longs turning seller again unless we get some announcement of sizeable US grain exports. The Mississippi River issue is causing freight rates to jump and Illinois River basis to drop. Other Midwest basis continues to move higher as farmer selling is limited. Traders are looking for signs that the White House and Congress are ready to compromise and find a solution to the budget problem. However, the Presidential press conference left viewers with the feeling a decision will not be made until the final hour. Bull spreading in corn and soybeans seems logical as near term supplies should provide underlining support. Chart resistance in Dec corn is 7.32 which was old support. The 7.05 area should now be support. January soybeans are in a range between 14.00 and 14.50 currently. Wheat has fallen to long term support and has positive fundamentals. Talk to your Allendale Representative for trading ideas. Livestock, historically, is volatile as we approach the Thanksgiving holiday. Moore Research has highlighted a few livestock spreads that should be considered. Choice beef was down .17 to 193.22 and select was down .29 to 174.90 on Wednesday. Pork cutout values were down 2.55 to 81.57. Join us at the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference on Jan 25 and 26.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    +1 1/2
Jan Beans   -6
Dec Wheat   +4 1/4
Dec Cattle -.10
Dec Hogs    -.40
Dec Dlr     +.09
Dec S+P     +4.50
Dec Crude   -.11
Dec Gold    -6.30
 
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Dec Lean Hogs is building a bull flag pattern in this latest bit of sideways trade between 80 and 81. In order to see this pattern activated, we would need to see a close above 81.35…Frank La Placa
 
 
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Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The Chinese government has indicated it will buy corn and soybean from producers at prices higher than last year’s normal fall procurement. They will offer to buy corn from 2,100 to 2,140 yuan per tonne which is up 7%. Their soybean offered price will be 4,600. That would be up 15% from last year.
 
 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Bull Spreads Attract Traders

Nov 14, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 14, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grains are higher on follow-through buying. Bull spreading has been the feature as cash markets provide underlining support to futures. Lack of farmer movement of grain and the USDA announcement of a corn sale to unknown buyers yesterday has traders covering shorts after the recent sell-off. Weather forecasters are adding a little more moisture for Argentina next week. Brazil should be getting periodic systems moving across the soybean growing region. USDA weekly crop conditions for wheat showed a 3% decline to 36% for G/E which was 7% below the lowest G/E made in 1991. Soybean harvest is 96% complete compared to 95% last week. NOPA crush is due out this morning, and analysts are looking for Oct crush of 146.2 million bushels, and oil stocks are estimated at 2.10 billion pounds. Euro finance ministers agreed to extend the Greece budget deficit target by 2 years and are promising funding but have not identified a source for the shortfall. You may remember back in August a few states asked the EPA for waivers on ethanol blending requirements. The EPA said a decision would come by the end of the month. Ukraine Prime Minister said that they will not suspend or limit wheat exports this year. Average estimates for Friday’s Cattle-On-Feed Report are: On feed 94.6%, Placed in October 87.3%, Marketed in October was 102.6%. Live cattle futures put in a positive performance on Tuesday. Resistance crosses in Dec cattle at 126.12 and then 126.90, the 50 day average. Tuesday’s low should be initial support. Nearby hog futures are rallying on the idea lower corn prices will keep cash hog supplies tighter than expected. Boxed beef prices were higher with choice up .08 and select up .88. Pork cutout values were down 1.61.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    +3 1/2
Jan Beans   +12 1/2
Dec Wheat   +4 1/4
Dec Cattle -.45
Dec Hogs    -.12
Dec Dlr     -.04
Dec S+P     +6.00
Dec Crude   +.22
Dec Gold    -2.50
 
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday Dec Wheat continued its sideways trade. Until some sort of confirmation to the downside is seen we would be very cautious in assuming that we are seeing any sort of breakout. This market has provided a number of false breakouts over the last four months…Frank La Placa 
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The Chinese government has indicated it will buy corn and soybean from producers at prices higher than last year’s normal fall procurement. They will offer to buy corn from 2,100 to 2,140 yuan per tonne which is up 7%. Their soybean offered price will be 4,600. That would be up 15% from last year.
 
 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Bargain Hunters Support Grains

Nov 13, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 13, 2012 at 4:40 am. Grains are higher as buyers look for bargains after the sharp sell-off. Can "Turnaround Tuesday" stop the selling in the grain futures? Yesterday the markets were flooded with technical selling when soybeans could not hold the 200 day moving average and December corn could not maintain the 7.32 support level. Fundamental news has not changed significantly. South American weather is not ideal but improving. South American analysts put Brazil soybean plantings ahead of the 5 year average while corn planting is only 61% versus 74% last year. The US crop conditions report will be released this afternoon with wheat good/excellent possibly dropping another 1%. Corn harvest should be 99% complete and soybean harvest 98% done. With the markets closing below key support areas, technical traders will now be looking for rallies to sell. However, fundamental traders will be looking for positive news to stop the slide. Exports will be the area to watch as US corn is now within $10.00 per tonne of being competitive to Japan. Gulf basis jumped yesterday as lower prices stalled farmer selling. The Mississippi River navigation problem between St. Louis and Cairo is being lobbied in Washington. The US financial problem will take front and center starting Friday as the President calls leaders together to work on cutting the budget by $1.2 trillion. Livestock traders are looking at the weaker grain prices and wonder if they should believe it or not. Packer margins are deep in the red and they are not willing to show their hands although beef product values are expected to improve after Thanksgiving. The next 2 weeks could provide the highest weekly pork production for the 4th quarter. Boxed beef was higher on Monday with choice up 1.43 and select up .15. Pork cutout values were down .90.
 
 
Markets as of 4:40 AM
Dec Corn    +6 1/4
Jan Beans   +10
Dec Wheat   +4 1/2
Dec Cattle -.02
Dec Hogs    +.22
Dec Dlr     +.14
Dec S+P     -9.00
Dec Crude   -.63
Dec Gold    -4.20
 
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday Jan Soybeans continued its epic collapse with a new leg lower stopping just shy of old resistance turned support at the $14.00 level. Due to the extreme trendiness with which the Soybeans are making its lows, we are recommending only short exposure or a full hedged position in the Soybeans…Frank La Placa
 
 
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Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
US: The centerpiece of USDA’s Friday report was the revision higher of this fall’s soybean production forecast. Yield was increased from 37.8 to 39.3. This allowed for them to make all the bullish changes to demand you could ask for and still have enough supply left over. This was a clear psychology changer for soybeans.
 
 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Soybeans Break Technical Support

Nov 12, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 12, 2012 at 5:10 am. We want to thank our veterans and active service men and women on this Veterans Day for keeping us safe. Grains are mostly lower as speculators and investors exit positions. The 200 day moving average was taken out early in the overnight session in January soybeans. Other chart support points were also penetrated this morning. China’s Dalian Exchange soyoil contract made lows not seen since June of 2010. The USDA’s report on Friday which increased US soybean production is causing traders to liquidate long positions. Weather in South America will give Argentina producers time to get some planting done and Brazil should get more moisture in areas where needed. Funds continue to reduce positions in the grains while building short positions in soyoil by 13,032 contracts. Traders are waiting to see some confirmation of new sales especially in soybeans after being down 75 cents last week. The bulls in the corn market are continuing to tout the narrowing of price spread between world corn and US corn. Technical support is 7.32 in Dec corn. It is likely sell orders are building below that level. Boxed beef was under pressure on Friday with choice down 1.37 and select down 2.39. Turkey will dominate the weekly features at the retail counter the next few weeks as Thanksgiving approaches. Pork cutout values were down .33. Livestock futures are expected to open steady to lower. Some packing plants will be closed today in observance of Veterans Day.  Sign up for the Allendale’s Ag Leaders Conference to be held on January 25 and 26, 2013.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    +3 1/2
Jan Beans   -22 3/4
Dec Wheat   -5 1/2
Dec Cattle Stdy-Lwr
Dec Hogs    Stdy-Lwr
Dec Dlr     -.03
Dec S+P     +2.75
Dec Crude   -.23
Dec Gold    +5.90
 
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Dec Corn held the $7.32 level on what was the fifth attempt to break this support level. You could also argue that the outside range day which does imply a short term change in trend could become a catalyst for a move to the upper edge of the recent trading range…Frank La Placa 
 
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Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
A slight rise in ending stocks was reported Friday. As we have noted before, these November reports are "incomplete". USDA did not change planted or harvested acreage and did not even touch the major demand numbers. Instead, a moderate rise in imports, a slight increase in yield, and a moderate increase in non-ethanol industrial was reported. We still expect a moderate decrease in harvested acreage on the January report. That should be more than offset when USDA lowers export and feed demand. Eventually, March corn is seen having a 715 downside price…Rich Nelson
 
 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Soybeans Test Technical Support

Nov 09, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 9, 2012 at 5:00 am. Grains are mixed this morning. Corn is higher while wheat and soybeans are lower. Traders are waiting for the USDA Crop Production and Supply & Demand Reports. Trade is looking for a corn carryout to increase from 619 up to 635 million bushel. Trade average estimate for total corn production is a drop from 10.706 billion bushel in October to 10.629 billion bushel. Soybeans should see a small carryout increase from 130 to 133 million bushels and production could see a 30 to 40 million bushel increase. Wheat stocks should see a small increase from 654 up to 666 million bushel. World wheat production could be a market mover as many analysts are lowering Australian wheat from USDA’s 23 mmt to less than 20 mmt. Technical support is still 7.32 in Dec corn and 14.84 in Jan soybeans. If these levels are broken after the report, one could expect more sell-stops being hit. The conciliatory comments out of Washington create hope that the economy will not hit the "fiscal cliff". There has been talk in recent days that the Mississippi River maybe severely restricted or shut down completely in a few weeks due to low water levels between St Louis and Cairo. Tune into the Allendale "Morning Coffee" for details and reactions to the report. Cash cattle traded at 125 yesterday; many feedlots are still holding out for 128 to 129. Boxed beef prices were lower on Thursday with choice down .69 and select down .21. Beef space will be reduced at the retail counter for the next 2 weeks as Thanksgiving approaches. However with the current reduction in slaughter we could see a retest of highs in the product in early December. Pork cutout value was up .99 yesterday. Some packing plants will be closed on Monday in observance of Veterans Day.  Sign up for the Allendale’s Ag Leaders Conference to be held on January 25 and 26, 2013.
 
 
Markets as of 5:00 AM
Dec Corn    + 3/4
Jan Beans   -10 1/4
Dec Wheat   -2 1/2
Dec Cattle -.12
Dec Hogs    -.07
Dec Dlr     +.15
Dec S+P     -3.75
Dec Crude   -.42
Dec Gold    +4.40
 
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Dec Wheat looks to have broken out to the upside; finally getting over the $8.95 level that has capped this market for the last month. With yesterday’s breakout, the trend is up and a challenge of the 7/23 $9.53 high, while not likely, is also not out of the question…Frank La Placa
 
 
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Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Wednesday night’s government sale of China’s state soybean stocks saw little participation. Only 65,495 tonnes of soybeans were sold out of the 397,204 tonnes that were offered.
 
 
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Grains Firm in Quiet Session

Nov 08, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 8, 2012 at 5:00 am. Grains are quiet while holding follow through strength from yesterday. Weekly export sales will be released at 7:30. Trade estimates are: wheat 300 to 500 tmt, corn 150 to 250 tmt, soybeans 600 to 800 tmt, meal 100 to 150 tmt and soyoil 20 to 40 tmt. Cash corn prices in South America have risen sharply over the last few days. This maybe giving signals that corn supplies are getting tight there. Corn basis in the US interior was down 5 cents and soybeans slipped 2 cents late yesterday. The thought is, Central Illinois processors are railing corn in from the west in order to keep local basis in check. Funds bought 6,000 corn contracts and 5,000 wheat contracts yesterday. Traders are expecting less corn production on Friday’s report which could make supplies tighter when US exports become more competitive. Technical support in Dec corn is 7.32 1/2. This area has been tested several times which suggests sell stops could be building just below that level. Traders will be getting positioned to go through the report on Friday morning. Lean hog futures finished at a 4-month high in the Dec contract on fund and technical buying on Wednesday. Nearby futures had been carrying a steep discount to the lean hog index. Pork cutout values were up .67 late yesterday. Beef futures would like to rally with hogs but are running into some demand road blocks. Another storm is headed for the Northeastern US and packers have supplies of meat they need to move. The Dow weakness is also providing head winds for beef. Boxed beef was mixed yesterday with choice up .28 and select down .29. Sign up for the Allendale’s Ag Leaders Conference to be held on January 25 and 26, 2013.
 
 
Markets as of 5:00 AM
Dec Corn    + 1/2
Jan Beans   +1 1/4
Dec Wheat   + 1/4
Dec Cattle -.12
Dec Hogs    -.05
Dec Dlr     +.16
Dec S+P     +.75
Dec Crude   +.75
Dec Gold    +.80
 
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday Dec Live Cattle tested the lower edge of the channel that it has been in over the last 6mos. A break below would project a move to $117. However until we see a confirmed break of the channel we should continue to view this break as just another retest of support…Frank La Placa 
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
ANZ Banking Group suggests Eastern Australia will be out of its wheat for export by April. This may push local prices to a significant premium over the US. Their numbers are made assuming production of 10 million tonnes and domestic demand for 5. From this recently harvested crop that gives them about 1 million tonnes for monthly exports. They estimate this year’s production at 20 million tonnes, down from last year’s 29. USDA’s latest estimate is 23 mt.
 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.
 

Grains Quiet After Obama Win

Nov 07, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 7, 2012 at 5:00 am. Grains are mixed this morning in a narrow trading range. President Obama wins another 4 year term. The outside markets are reacting to the election results with a weaker dollar and higher metals. Grain traders will now focus on getting positioned for Friday’s report.  China will be auctioning 400 tmt of beans on Thursday. We also should be getting Brazil’s crop production numbers from CONAB tomorrow. Trade averages were released by newswires for Friday’s USDA report and the estimate is for lower corn production with higher ending stocks. The slowdown in corn usage is the main reason for increasing ending stocks. Soybean production is expected to be on average about 30 million bushel greater than last month. However, ending stock estimates average only 3 million bushels higher than last month. The aggressive Chinese demand is supporting this rationale. CME has lowered the margin requirement for corn and some spreads. The Deutsche Bank roll ends on Thursday and Goldman roll starts today. Livestock packers have been trying to bring their margins back in line. The recent weakness in product has pushed packer margins into the red by $80.00 per head. Slaughter is 17,000 head less than the same week a year ago. Boxed beef prices were higher on Tuesday with choice up .63 and select up 1.16. The cash hog price turn around yesterday is providing support for futures. Pork cutout was down 1.19 on Tuesday. Subscribe to the Allendale Advisory Report. Allendale’s Ag Leaders Conference is January 25 and 26, 2013.
 
 
Markets as of 5:00 AM
Dec Corn    +2 3/4
Jan Beans   -1 1/2
Dec Wheat   +4 1/2
Dec Cattle +.05
Dec Hogs    -.05
Dec Dlr     -.12
Dec S+P     +2.50
Dec Crude   -.68
Dec Gold    +9.90
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday Jan Soybeans retraced Monday’s weak trade and is beginning to put in what looks to be the right shoulder of a head and shoulders bottom pattern. This pattern is not valid until we see a close above the neckline of $15.76…Frank La Placa
 
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
An official with the Goias Agricultural Federation suggests farmers in the states of Mato Grosso and Goias are now having to replant soybeans. Some of the acreage planted in late September and early October has not emerged. The trade still looks for Brazil to harvest a record crop. The question is whether it will be above USDA’s 81 mt estimate.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Grains Rebound On Election Day Morning

Nov 06, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 6, 2012 at 5:00 am. Grains are higher as prices rebound from Monday’s selloff. Traders are still concerned about South American weather and the potential size of their crop. Northern Brazil received rain over the weekend and more is in the forecast for early next week. Argentina is dry until late this week. Celeres a local crop analyst out of Brazil is projecting a 79.02 mmt which would be a record for the 2012/13 crop year. CONAB is due out with production numbers on Thursday that will be watched closely by the trade. USDA says corn harvest is 95% complete and soybean harvest is 93% done. Winter wheat conditions fell by 1% to 39% in the good/excellent category which is a record low for a crop just getting started. Traders are preparing for the Supply and Demand report on Friday morning. Out of the last 6 years when corn production was down in October there were further declines in November. Soybean production has a history of increasing in the November report as traders are looking for a 32 million bushel improvement. The spread between choice and select beef is widening. The reduced demand at white table cloth restaurants on the east coast caused by Super Storm Sandy is pressuring choice beef. While the high feed costs are causing cattle to be moved a little sooner than normal. Pork cutout values were up .93 on Friday. Stay in touch with all the facts by subscribing to the Allendale Advisory Report. Exercise you obligation to VOTE today!
 
 
Markets as of 5:00 AM
Dec Corn    +3 1/2
Jan Beans   +14
Dec Wheat   +7
Dec Cattle -.02
Dec Hogs    +.02
Dec Dlr     -.06
Dec S+P     +4.50
Dec Crude   +.45
Dec Gold    +7.50
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Due to yesterday’s short term momentum failure, we can now technically say that the uptrend has ended. We are looking for a close below $76.55 to call a peak and reversal that will ultimately lead to downtrend and what could be considerable losses…Frank La Placa
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Weekend rains totaled as much as 1 inch for areas in Argentina outside the main growing region. Southern Brazil was dry. The next chance of rain for Argentina and Southern Brazil is from Thursday through Saturday. Rains of 0.50 to 1.00 inch will fall in Argentina then move into Southern Brazil and total 0.20 to 0.60 inch. The real excitement with weather right now is Central/Northern Brazil
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Week Ahead to Set Tone

Nov 05, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 5, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grains are mixed with corn and wheat higher and soybeans slightly lower. The week ahead is filled with events that could and likely will impact grain prices. This afternoon, the crop progress and conditions will be released. The winter wheat conditions last week started at only 40% Good/Excellent. Tuesday is election day in the US. Hope everyone intends to vote. Thursday we have export sales and Friday the USDA gives us the monthly crop production and Supply & Demand. Weather conditions in South America have improved this weekend. Northern Brazil has received rain and more is on the way. Southern Brazil and Argentina were dry this weekend and the forecast has pushed the next system out until late this week. The amount seems to be less than what was expected on Friday. The trade is looking for larger bean production on Friday’s report. Most analysts are expecting corn yield and production to shrink further. Technical support in corn at 7.32 will be very important while soybeans should see support around the 15.00 area. The Commitment of Traders report on Friday had managed funds reducing long positions in Ag commodities to the lowest levels since June. The Goldman roll will begin on Wednesday. Boxed beef values were lower on Friday with choice down .76 and select was down .76. Pork cutout values were down .10. Stay in touch with the Allendale Advisory to get latest impact and expectations of upcoming events.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    +2 1/4
Jan Beans   -4 3/4
Dec Wheat   +4 3/4
Dec Cattle called Steady
Dec Hogs    called Steady
Dec Dlr     +.10
Dec S+P     +1.50
Dec Crude   +.14
Dec Gold    +3.60
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Dec Corn has continued its sideways range that it has been trapped in over the last month. We need to watch for a break below $7.32 or a break above $7.76 to assume the direction that Corn will take…Frank La Placa
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The monthly employment, released Friday, indicated 171,000 new jobs were added in October. That was up from the September level of 148,000. The trade was expecting 125,000. Unemployment was revised to 7.9% which was up from 7.8% in September.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Grains Quiet in Overnight Trade

Nov 02, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 2, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grains are mixed with soybeans giving back some of this week’s gains. Several ag futures markets showed reversal signals yesterday. Traders will be watching the close for further technical indicators. We are in a time period where the two largest index funds are rolling out nearby positions into deferred contracts. Duetsche Bank starts their roll today. They will be rolling from Dec 12 to Dec 13 in corn, Goldman’s roll will start on Wednesday and they will move positions from Dec 12 to Mar 13 contracts. The weather forecast is nearly the same as we have been talking about for the last few days. Argentina is dry and northern Brazil is receiving rain. The models are conflicting about the next system building across Argentina. One model is extending drying until late next week with lighter amounts of moisture while the other has rain starting midweek. Weather will have an impact on Sunday night trading as the forecast should be much clearer. Export values are getting closer to making US corn competitive. Where will we find the corn if prices favor US markets? Export sales will be released at 7:30 am with the trade expecting corn 100 to 350 tmt, soybeans 500 to 700 tmt, meal 120 to 225 tmt, soyoil 0 to 20 tmt and wheat 350 to 500 tmt. Yield estimates for next Friday’s USDA Crop Production reports are coming out. FC Stone released their estimates yesterday afternoon and raised corn yield to 124 bpa and soybean to 39.1 bpa. In October, USDA estimated 122 bpa for corn and 37.8 bpa for soybeans. Informa is expected to release their numbers this morning at 10:30. Cash cattle trade is done for the week at 126 to 127. Product remains under pressure with choice beef down 1.27 and select down .35. Pork cutout values were .13 lower. Livestock futures may see further influence by the weak close on Thursday. Get the full details in the Allendale Advisory Report.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    -1
Nov Beans   -12
Dec Wheat   +1 1/4
Dec Cattle -.05
Dec Hogs    +.20
Dec Dlr     +.27
Dec S+P     -1.00
Dec Crude   -.81
Dec Gold    -7.70
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
This wheat report is becoming quite the déjà vu experience as we continue our 4 month grind sideways. Yesterday we topped out in the middle of the range. We continue to wait for a breakout one way or the other on the chart to make a move. The pivot high is $8.95 the pivot low is $8.40 ¼ a close above or below these levels will confirm the breakout…Frank La Placa 
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The first winter wheat rating of the season was started Wednesday. USDA suggested only 40% of the crop was rated good or excellent as of Sunday night. This was the worst start of any year since USDA started this data series in 1986/87.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Grains Higher on Thoughts of Renewed Demand

Nov 01, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 1, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grains are higher on ideas of renewed buying by China. Harvest progress in US slightly slower than trade was expecting. USDA released crop progress figures yesterday afternoon putting corn harvest at 91% up 5% from last week and soybean harvest at 87% compared to 5 year average of 79%. The eastern producing states are behind on bean harvest with OH 79%, IN 81% and KY at 70%. Winter wheat plantings were 88% versus 5 year average of 85%. The good /excellent ratings for winter wheat start the year at 40% compared to 46% last year. The weekly ethanol data will be released this morning but the weekly export sales will be released on Friday morning at 7:30. Grain trading volume picked up on Wednesday as end of month buying and algo traders jumped into the action. Traders are estimating funds bought 11,000 corn contracts, 6,000 soybean contracts and 4,000 wheat contracts on Wednesday. Technical traders are now looking at this week’s low as a seasonal low. The 7.32 in Dec is critical support while 7.63 (50 day moving average) is overhead resistance. Cash traders are reporting a slight pickup in corn and soybean sales after yesterday’s rally. Soybean deliveries of 500 contracts yesterday went to the street therefore it is expected that most of the contracts will be redelivered. The weather forecast for South America has not had any significant change. Argentina should have drier weather into next week and models are conflicting on the amount of rain in the next system. Cash cattle trade is at a standstill as boxed beef values come under pressure. Choice was down 3.40 and select down 1.23. The disruption in demand on the east coast combined with the seasonal competition from other meats is causing this pullback in beef values. Pork cutout was up .99. Lean hog futures have been finding strength from risk-on investor attitude.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    +5
Nov Beans   +14 3/4
Dec Wheat   +5 1/4
Dec Cattle -.02
Dec Hogs    +.62
Dec Dlr     +.12
Dec S+P     -3.75
Dec Crude   +.14
Dec Gold    +4.40
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Jan Soybeans are building a head and shoulders bottom that will be confirmed with a close above $15.76 and projects to $16.60…Frank La Placa
 
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Argentina: Tuesday may have marked an important turning point in psychology in the grains. Part of the reason prices had fallen off their October highs were forecasts for rain in South America. Now the perception is the Argentina has received too much. One analyst, Manuel Ledesma suggests corn fields will be lost and there will be replanting. He is already taking 20% of his original production estimate and now sees the crop at 22.4 mt. This would be a good deal down from USDA’s latest 28.0 mt estimate. He suggests soybean production will need to be trimmed 10% to 50 mt. USDA’s latest is 55.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

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