Sep 22, 2014
Home| Tools| Events| Blogs| Discussions| Sign UpLogin


March 2013 Archive for The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Grains Lower On Profit Taking

Mar 28, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 28, 2013 at 4:15 am. Grains futures are lower in a quiet session. Traders are waiting for the USDA Reports and making final adjustments in positions. Weekly export sales will be released at 7:30 this morning. Trade estimates for corn are 100 to 300 tmt, soybeans 150 to 500 tmt, 20 to 150 tmt, soyoil -15 to +20 tmt and wheat 200 to 500 tmt. The Prospective Plantings report at 11:00 has the trade average estimates as: corn 97.3 mil acres, soybean 78.5 mil acres, all wheat 56.4 mil acres, other spring wheat 12.5 mil acres, Durum 2.1 mil acres and cotton 10.8 mil acres. The grain stocks average estimates are: corn 5.030 mil bu, soybeans .947 mil bu and wheat 1.167 mil bu. Other news has corn basis heavy as export demand is nil and Argentina corn premiums continue to slide. Reports suggest Argentina corn is 65 under May futures FOB their ports. Japan’s Industry of Ag has said they are planning to buy nearly 5.00 mmt of foreign wheat during the next year. The BA Exchange reported Argentina corn harvest is 18.3% completed while soybeans are 6% harvested. India has begun to export corn at prices $20 to $25 per cheaper than Argentina. The Global markets are watching the euro, which is trading at 4 month lows, as Cyprus is expected to reopen banks. A few cattle traded at $125 which is steady with last week. Beef cutout values continue to slide as we go into the Easter weekend. Choice was down .47 and select was down .66. Pork cutout values were down .70 on Wednesday. Livestock traders will be waiting to see the release of the grain stocks and outlook for planted acres as feed costs are weighing on profitability. Check the Allendale website after 12:00 for Rich Nelson's YouTube update with his analysis and highlights of the USDA Reports.

 Markets as of 4:15 AM

  • May #Corn    - 1/4
  • May #Beans   -3 1/2
  • May #Wheat   +2 1/2
  • Apr Cattle  +.17
  • Apr Hogs    -.22
  • Jun Dlr     -.01
  • Jun S&P     -4.25
  • May Crude   -.02
  • Jun Gold    -1.60

 

Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

Expect More Position Adjusting

Mar 27, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 27, 2013 at 5:00 am. Grains futures are quiet as they trade near unchanged. Thanks to all who attended the Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar last evening. For those of you not able to attend, you will have access later this morning at www.allendale-inc.com . Markets are quiet as we approach the USDA Report on Thursday at 11:00. It appears the trade is focusing on the Quarterly Stocks numbers as they could have a big impact on old crop/new crop spreads. The average guess for planted acres is #corn 97.3 million acres, slightly higher than last year’s plantings. The estimate for #soybeans is 78.394 million acres. The CME has raised the margin requirement for corn which takes effect with today’s trade. This is an effort to control open interest ahead of a potentially very volatile report. Rich Nelson, Allendale’s Chief Strategist did a study which showed in 13 of the past 15 years there was a continued price reaction into April in the same direction as the report day pricing for July and Dec corn. You can get all the details by listening to the Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar which was presented last evening. On Monday we lost $1 to $2 in wholesale beef and today another decline of -$0.15 in choice and -$1.04 in select. End users are generally procuring product for three weeks out. This should be the time when they are starting their excitement for outdoor grilling season. Strong cash trade this week has changed some viewpoints in the hog market. Pork cutout values were down .37 on Tuesday. Hogs and Pigs report on Thursday afternoon at 2:00 pm. Trade average estimates are slightly higher than 100% of year ago in all major categories. Subscribe to the Allendale Advisory Report, ask for Greg and get his special pricing!

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • May Corn    + 1/2
  • May Beans   - 1/4
  • May Wheat   +1 1/4
  • Apr Cattle  +.07
  • Apr Hogs    -.30
  • Jun Dlr     +.25
  • Jun S&P     -3.50
  • May Crude   -.45
  • Jun Gold    -2.00

 

Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

Two Days Before USDA Report

Mar 26, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 26, 2013 at 4:45 am. Grains futures are lower on profit taking after a late rally yesterday. Heavy snow across the Midwest and below normal temps for the next 2 weeks has traders willing buyers in the new crop futures. China buying new crop #soybeans and no announcement of old crop sales has bull spreaders taking some profits. The tight stocks estimates could help provide some support for spreads. The trade averages as (surveyed by Reuters) for Quarterly Stocks for March 1, 2013 in #corn is 5.013 billion bushel, soybeans is .935 billion bushel and #wheat 1.117. USDA March 1, 2012 was corn 6.023, soybeans 1.374 and wheat 1.199. Trade average estimates for Prospective Plantings are corn 97.252 mil acres, soybeans 78.394 mil acres, and all wheat 56.442 mil acres. The recent price rally in corn is giving farmers a reason and incentive to release some of their inventory. Basis has topped for the near-term and giving traders a reason to reduce size in the May/Dec corn spreads. Effective Sunday, April 7, 2013 (trade date Monday, April 8), all CBOT, KCBT and MGEX Grain and Oilseed Futures and Options will reduce electronic trading hours on CME Globex. The trading hours will be: Sunday-Friday: 19:00 to 07:45 CT, Monday-Friday:  Break from 07:45 to 08:30 CT, Monday-Friday: 08:30 to 13:15 CT, Mini-Sized Grains: 08:30 to 13:45 CT. Our advice is to not be lulled to sleep by pre-report action. Be ready to adjust your positions as spring planting will be front and center next week. Friday’s Cold Storage report showed increase beef in storage at a time the industry has 12% less market ready cattle. Pork supplies fell 16 million pounds which was in line with expectations. Beef prices have the disadvantage when compared to pork and poultry. Consumer demand is critical to beef prices. Boxed beef prices were lower again on Monday. Choice down .85 and select was down 2.07. Pork futures are firmer as cutout values were .68 higher on Monday. Join us the tonight for the Allendale’s Ag Leaders Webinar. Sign up now, click here!

Markets as of 4:45 AM

  • May Corn    -2 1/4
  • May Beans   -1
  • May Wheat   -1
  • Apr Cattle  +.02
  • Apr Hogs    +.85
  • Jun Dlr     +.00
  • Jun S&P     +3.00
  • May Crude   +.46
  • Jun Gold    -8.50

 

Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

Countdown to Thursday USDA Report

Mar 25, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 25, 2013 at 5:00 am. Grains futures are lower. The clock continues to run as the USDA Prospective Plantings number will be released on Thursday at 11:00 AM CT. There are more estimates being circulated as position adjusting will be a feature ahead of the report this week. For more insight into this report join us for the Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar tomorrow night. The CFTC says the managed money fund managers increased net corn longs by 57,864 and reduced soybean long positions by 39,420 contracts as of last Tuesday. Funds also reduced their short positions in #wheat by 8,062 contracts. Farmers opened bin doors slightly on the price rally in nearby corn last week. The weather forecast has not shown much change over the weekend. Informa released their ending stocks estimates for 2013/14 #corn at 2.040 billion bushels and #soybeans at 241 million bushels. Cattle on Feed Report could be considered a little friendly especially with the recent sell off. Rich Nelson, Allendale’s Chief Strategist says Allendale estimates the front end supply of cattle, those on feed for over 120 days, at 4.193 million head. This is 575,000 head smaller front end supply than last year at this time. The last time we saw this big of a year over year supply drop was 2009′s 457,000 head drop. 2009 was one of those years with a late spring rally. In 2009 there was a $5 cash cattle rally from now until the third week of April. Will we see a late spring resurgence in cash cattle this year? On Friday boxed beef values were lower with choice down 1.55 and select down .96. Pork cutout values were down .57. Get the rest of the story by subscribing to the Allendale Advisory Report at www.allendale-inc.com.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • May Corn    -2 3/4
  • May Beans   -9
  • May Wheat   -1 1/2
  • Apr Cattle  Steady-Higher
  • Apr Hogs    Steady-Higher
  • Jun Dlr     -.11
  • Jun S&P     +8.00
  • May Crude   +.46
  • Jun Gold    -3.80

Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

Farmer Selling and Moisture Forecast Provide Profit Taking

Mar 22, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 22, 2013 at 5:05 am coming to you from Fargo, ND. We will be in Carrington, ND for a meeting this afternoon at 2 PM. Grains are lower on profit taking after the recent rallies. The forecast for more moisture in the southern Plains has weighed on the wheat complex. The below normal temps across the Midwest is supporting the December corn futures. Recent price rally in corn has drawn some farmer selling on Thursday. We expect more positioning ahead of next week’s USDA reports. Talk of China selling soybeans out of their reserves will likely be replaced by Brazilian beans when they arrive in Chinese ports. Export sales yesterday were nothing stellar as the actual sales were at the low end of trade estimates. Dock workers in Brazil canceled their strike after talking with government leaders. Cyprus banks are closed until Tuesday as they negotiate with Russia and the EU. We expect more fireworks in the Euro next week. Cattle traders are waiting for the Cattle on Feed Report this afternoon. Trade estimates are On Feed 93.6%, Placed 91.0% and Marketed 92.4% of last year. Cattle producers and traders are hoping for some friendly news to help stop the slide in futures. Choice beef on Thursday afternoon was at $192.98, which was .43 lower; select values were up .21 to 193.24. Feeder cattle index was down .70 to 135.54. Cash hogs are expected to be under pressure again next week. Pork cutout values were up 1.09. Allendale’s Monthly Ag Leader’s Webinar will be held on Tuesday, March 26. Sign up today to reserve your connection.

Markets as of 5:05 AM

  • May Corn    -3 3/4
  • May Beans   -4 1/2
  • May Wheat   -2 3/4
  • Apr Cattle  -.27
  • Apr Hogs    +.02
  • Jun Dlr     -.13
  • Jun S&P     +.25
  • May Crude   +.21
  • Apr Gold    -1.90

 

Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

Quiet Markets Ahead Of Weekly Export Data

Mar 21, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 21, 2013 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are mixed. #Soybean futures are higher lead by short-covering. #Corn is steady and #wheat slightly lower. #Ethanol production was a little better than last week being down only 9% from last year’s level. Year to date production is now 11.7% behind last year and below the USDA target of a 10% decline. One of the highlights coming out of yesterday’s EIA report was the profitability of ethanol production which improved by $.23 this week. With the strong basis at ethanol plants, it is reported that farmers are getting 8.00 a bushel for corn in Central IA. There is talk circulating now that ethanol plant production is being reduced because of railcar availability. Some plants had leased their railcars out due to previous production slowdowns. Weather continues to delay loading in the Brazilian Port of Paranagua. Their loading equipment is not covered and has lost 27 days of work since January 1. Weekly export sales estimates are divided this week into old crop and new crop. Trade is looking for 12/13 corn 0 to 250 tmt, soybeans 300 to 600 tmt, wheat 450 to 800 tmt and estimates for the 13/14 corn is 50 to 400 tmt, soybeans 150 to 400 tmt and wheat 100 to 320 tmt. We are only a week away from the big USDA report on March 28. Expect to see choppy trade as we approach the report. Cyprus banks are not going to open until Tuesday as leaders appeal to Russia for bailout help. Without some kind of intervention the banks will fail when they open as customers will run to withdraw funds. Cash cattle sales were reported at 125 to 125.5 in Nebraska yesterday. Boxed beef values continue to slide as choice was down .77 and select was down .62. Feeder cattle index was down .38 to 136.24. Cash hogs struggle to find buyers while pork cutout values were down 1.68 on Wednesday. Livestock futures are oversold and traders are waiting for the signal that the bottom is in. Don’t forget to sign up for the March 26th Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar at www.allendale-inc.com.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • May Corn    +0
  • May Beans   +11 1/4
  • May Wheat   - 1/2
  • Apr Cattle  +.27
  • Apr Hogs    +.00
  • Jun Dlr     +.05
  • Jun S&P     -2.50
  • Apr Crude   +.80
  • Apr Gold    +.70

 

Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

Traders Getting Ready for Next Week's Reports

Mar 20, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 20, 2013 at 5:00 am. Grains futures are higher on short covering and firmer European markets. More spreading of old crop versus new crop is keeping markets somewhat active ahead of next week’s USDA Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stock reports. Traders are getting positioned for a friendly stocks number as cash markets are strong. Lack of farmer movement is driving nearby futures. The deferred contracts struggle with increased acres of soybeans and near year ago levels in corn. Allendale data suggests more acres planted in the 3 major crops of corn, soybeans and wheat. We have been suggesting the key to 2013 production is not planted acres, it is harvested acres and yield. Tomorrow the weekly export data from USDA will be watched closely. Weather in South America is ideal for crops to complete maturity. Traders are chattering about a slow start to spring planting and the need for an early harvest to meet demand needs. Weather is a bit supportive as the forecast is cold and wet for a few more weeks. The Cyprus government is getting a lot of pressure from Russia concerning bank deposit tax. Things have likely quieted down for the EU for a while. Livestock markets are where the action is. How much lower can cattle and feeders go? More liquidation by producers and margin clerks are driving futures. Cash cattle traded in the north at 124 and 124.50. Boxed beef values were lower again. Choice was down 1.66 and select was down .06. Lean hog futures are seeing liquidation as well. Pork cutout value was down 1.14. Meat demand is being stifled by tax increases and budget cuts. Get all the details by subscribing to the Allendale Advisory Report at www.allendale-inc.com.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • May Corn    +2 3/4
  • May Beans   +8 1/2
  • May Wheat   +8 1/2
  • Apr Cattle  +.05
  • Apr Hogs    +.05
  • Jun Dlr     -.20
  • Jun S&P     +5.25
  • Apr Crude   +.48
  • Apr Gold    -.70

 

Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

Macro Markets Influence Grains

Mar 19, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 19, 2013 at 5:00 am. Grains futures are higher, supported by bull spreading in corn. The outside markets are impacting the strength of the US Dollar and investors' willingness to support corn and soybean futures. The Cyprus bank situation is likely to go on for a while as their banks are closed until Thursday. Early estimates for the quarterly Stock Report seem to have the corn stocks number around 5 billion bushels and soybeans in the 930 to 950 area. At our weekly research meeting, Rich Nelson, Allendale’s Chief Strategist discussed the tight supply of US old crop soybeans. Currently soybean crush is running 8% above a year ago. The USDA is projecting 2012/13 crush to be 5% below last year. This means in order to achieve the USDA goal we need to run 14% below last year for the balance of the year. We also need to sell another 75 million bushels of soybeans to reach the USDA export goals. The old crop/new crop soybean spread has narrowed about 50 cents since March 11. We are looking for an entry point opportunity in this spread. The price relationship between corn and wheat has end-users talking about using more wheat in rations due to the availability of corn. Although it is the middle of March, traders are getting concerned about timelines of corn planting in the Midwest. A recent weather map is showing that much of the cornbelt has received some moisture to replenish soil conditions. Technical points to watch are the 5.70 level in Dec Corn for resistance and the 12.50 support area in November soybeans. Livestock futures continue to struggle due to product demand. Boxed beef prices were mixed on Monday with choice up .08 and select down .22. The feeder index was set at 137.19 unchanged from Friday. Pork cutout values were up .53 on Monday. You are welcome to listen to the Allendale Acreage Survey Results Webinar by going to www.allendale-inc.com.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • May Corn    +2 3/4
  • May Beans   +3 3/4
  • May Wheat   +2 1/2
  • Apr Cattle  -.15
  • Apr Hogs    -.12
  • Jun Dlr     +.05
  • Jun S&P     -.25
  • Apr Crude   +.01
  • Apr Gold    -2.50

 

Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

Grains Give Back Gains

Mar 18, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 18, 2013 at 5:05 am. Grains futures are lower. Corn and wheat give back some of last week’s gains and soybeans continue the slide. The US Dollar's sharp rally is providing some headwinds for the bulls. Traders are watching the weather forecast for the Midwest which currently has another system moving through later this week. Planting delays are already being talked about. We are only ten days away from a very important report from the USDA. On March 28th, we get the Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stock Reports. Managed Money Funds last week increased long positions in corn by 24,807 contracts, soybeans by 11,048 contracts. They reduced their short positions in wheat by 4,767 contracts. A Brazilian analyst put their double crop corn production 4.8 mmt higher than USDA. The next 2 weeks will be very choppy with USDA report concerns and spreaders dominating much of the volatility between old crop and new crop pricing.  For cattle, the four week average slaughter is running 5% lower than last year. This week’s Cattle on Feed report will confirm that feedlots are holding 6% fewer cattle than last year. Lean hog futures continued to struggle with Chinese media coverage of their "hog dumping" problem which is hurting their pork demand. Choice beef was down .56 and select was down 1.20 on Friday. The Feeder Cattle index is 137.19. Pork cutout values were up 1.51 on Friday.

Markets as of 5:05 AM

  • May Corn    -5 3/4
  • May Beans   -15
  • May Wheat   -8 1/2
  • Apr Cattle  Steady-Lower
  • Apr Hogs    Steady-Lower
  • Jun Dlr     +.32
  • Jun S&P     -12.25
  • Apr Crude   -.82
  • Apr Gold    +10.20

 

Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

Profit Taking is Pushing Corn and Wheat lower

Mar 15, 2013

Good Morning! Steve Georgy with early morning comments for March 15, 2013 at 5:05 am. After a nice rally this week, we are seeing a slight setback this morning. As of the close yesterday, corn managed to bounce 13 cents higher for the week while wheat climbed 30 cents. Wheat is leading the way lower and has corn moving right along with it. Export sales yesterday were great once again for wheat as USDA announced just short of 1.1 million metric tonnes booked. That was higher than the trade estimates and continues to show that we are still the cheapest wheat around. The funds are short wheat and if they decide to get neutral or look to hold long positions this could support wheat from these levels. Corn seems to be struggling to push higher unless wheat can jump as well. We have an acreage report coming at the end of this month and the trade is expecting to see bearish numbers. Exports yesterday were surprisingly friendly to the market since they came in just over the trade estimates. As of the close yesterday, beans had dropped 35 cents this week. The talk of China slowing down their purchases of beans and the cancellation of the port strike in Brazil yesterday has helped push prices lower. Brazilian port workers had planned a one day strike that was supposed to take place on March 19th. Yesterday they had cancelled the strike due to improved talks with the government. Brazil still has a huge backup of barges at their main ports. This doesn’t mean that the problem will be fixed, it just means it is not getting worse, for now. Allendale will be releasing our findings this morning from our 24th Annual Acreage Survey at 7:30. We would like to thank everyone that took the time to participate in our survey. Please stay in touch with us for the results.

Markets as of 5:05 AM

  • May Corn    -1 1/2
  • May Beans   +5 1/2
  • May Wheat   -3 1/2
  • Apr Cattle  -.20
  • Apr Hogs    -.30
  • Mar Dlr     -.30
  • Mar S&P     -1.50
  • Apr Crude   +.10
  • Apr Gold    +1.00

 

Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

Grains are Waiting for Export News

Mar 14, 2013

Good Morning! Steve Georgy with early morning comments for March 14, 2013 at 5:05 am. Corn and wheat are just a touch higher with beans falling back again. This reminds me of the same setup as yesterday. USDA will release export data this morning at 7:30 central time. Corn is expected to see sales of 300,000-500,000 tonnes , wheat should have sales between 500,000 and 1.0 million tonnes and beans are expected to see a huge 1.0 million to 1.5 million tonnes. Yesterday beans were the leader lower. Most of the talk was that China had returned some purchases from South America. This is not a surprise due to the fact that Brazil has a 50 day back up in there ports. The cancellation was for March /April deliveries. 50 days takes you past the end of April at this point. However it was enough to change the emotion of traders. We will need to see if there are any additional sales made today here in the US. Those sales would be seen at 8:00 central time. Corn broke early yesterday but was supported by wheat. That relationship may continue now that corn and wheat are at the same price once again. We are still hearing that some ethanol plants are still considering wheat instead of corn. This news will most likely supporting wheat from these levels. The funds are short wheat and could come out of those positions and give the wheat a short term lift in price. Yesterday it was announced that the US bought 400,000 tonnes of sugar that will be used for ethanol as well. This isn’t bullish corn. There were rumors circulating that Mexico bought wheat from the US instead of corn due to the price difference as well. This will be interesting to see if this is true and should be reported today if it is.

Markets as of 5:20 AM

  • May #Corn    Unch
  • May #Beans   -8 1/2
  • May #Wheat   +1/2
  • Apr Cattle  +.20
  • Apr Hogs    +.30
  • Mar Dlr     +.14
  • Mar S&P     +2.00
  • Apr Crude   +.10
  • Apr Gold    -4.00

 

Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

Grains Are Mixed to Start the Morning

Mar 13, 2013

Good Morning! Steve Georgy with early morning comments for March 13, 2013 at 5:25 am. Corn continues to lead the surge higher once again. The bull spreads continue to widen out with the March contract staying firm. March corn is currently trading 27 cents over the May. This will support the May contract and keep a stronger tone until March goes off the board on Thursday. Corn is also finding support from the talk of too much rain in the Delta. The trade is already talking planting delays and concerned about too much moisture now. New crop has found support and is approaching resistance levels near 560. March beans gave up yesterday as they fell 25 cents. This spread collapsed showing that beans may be a little tired at these levels. It seems the 1500 area is tough for beans to stay above. The talk of striking in the Brazilian ports will still keep support under the beans as the backup of barges continues to get worse. This will continue to keep strong export sales for now. New crop beans may find support in the coming weeks due to the fact that it is more favorable to plant corn at these levels and beans may need to buy acres. We should hear more about buying acres as we get closer to the USDA Planting Intentions report at the end of the month. Cattle are steady this morning but box beef continues to firm up. Choice yesterday finished .40 higher and select up .10. Cash cattle will be important to watch this week for the direction of cattle. Hogs may have found support now that cash hogs are trying to firm up. The trend is still down but we have seen some higher closes that could start to change the mentality of the market.

Markets as of 5:20 AM

  • May #Corn    +2 1/2
  • May #Beans   -4 3/4
  • May #Wheat   +2 1/2
  • Apr Cattle  unch
  • Apr Hogs    +.02
  • Mar Dlr     +.01
  • Mar S&P     - 2.00
  • Apr Crude   +.25
  • Apr Gold    -1.00

 

Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

Tuesday is Starting Slightly Lower

Mar 12, 2013

Good Morning! Steve Georgy with early morning comments for March 12, 2013 at 5:05 am. We are seeing a turnaround Tuesday attitude to start things this morning. The grains are lower after pulling off the highs late in the session yesterday. The cash markets remain strong and continue to keep the bull spreads intact. This should still support corn on further pullbacks today. The March contract is in deliveries but still creating strength as we continue to see no deliveries made against them. Thursday is the last trade day for March and we have a tendency to see the May contract gravitate toward the same price level that March goes off the board. Beans found support yesterday as the port strike talks continue in Brazil. They have a tremendous backup of ships in their ports and the planned strike for next Tuesday will only make things worse. China bought some US beans yesterday and will continue to buy US beans until they get a better handle on things in South America. They are looking at a huge crop but it will not matter unless the shipping situation gets better. Beans have good resistance at the 1500 level but we could see the market push above this if the problem escalates any further next week. Cattle are unchanged this morning after closing in the upper end of the trading range yesterday. Box beef was mixed yesterday with choice down .40 and select up .67. Cattle will probably chop around until we see what the cash trade does this week. Hogs gave back a lot of their gains from last week. Cash hogs continue to drop off and struggle to find support. We could be in for another week of sloppy trade.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • May #Corn    -1/2
  • May #Beans   -12 3/4
  • May #Wheat   -3
  • Apr Cattle  unch
  • Apr Hogs    +.10
  • Mar Dlr     +.15
  • Mar S&P     - 2.00
  • Apr Crude   -.20
  • Apr Gold    +3.90

Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

Grains are Higher to Start the Week

Mar 11, 2013

Good Morning! Steve Georgy with early morning comments for March 11, 2013 at 5:05 am. No big surprises from the USDA on Friday. #Corn and# bean ending stocks were kept unchanged from last month but wheat stocks were increased. The bulls had a reason to jump back on the long side of the corn. The trade expected to see increased ending stocks up to 649 million but we can only get an unchanged 632 million. The fact is that we still have tight stocks and should be supported on pull backs. New crop corn will still be influenced by the acreage report at the end to the month. Beans are showing strength after a slightly negative report. Ending stocks remain at a tight 125 million. Talks continue to escalate in Brazil between the dock workers and the government. They already have a backup of barges in the ports and another strike would only make things worse. This should keep our exports sales strong in the US and should keep some support under the beans on setbacks. #Wheat has a little different look at this point. The trade was looking for an increase of 22 million bushels and USDA increase carryout by 25 million. Global ending stocks rose from 176.73 billion to 178.23 billion. The point I am trying to make here is that wheat does not have tight ending stocks like corn and beans. Wheat will continue to follow the corn market until the bulls can find a good reason to break away. Good rains fell across the Corn Belt this past weekend and continue to help the soil moisture problem from last year’s drought. The next major system to move through is March 19th-21st. Thank you to everyone that helped with this year's Planted Acreage Survey.  We will be releasing the results by email on March 15.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • May Corn    +4 1/4
  • May Beans   +6
  • May Wheat   +1 1/2
  • Mar Dlr     +.02
  • Mar S&P     - 2.00
  • Apr Crude   -.25
  • Apr Gold    +2.10

 

Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

Grains Slightly Higher Before USDA Numbers

Mar 08, 2013

Good Morning! Steve Georgy with early morning comments for March 8, 2013 at 5:05 am. Grains are moving higher this morning as we approach the USDA report at 11 am central time. The last few days we have seen traders re-positioning and corn is down almost 15 cents for the week so far. Beans have rallied 33 cents for the week and wheat has fallen 27 cents. The trade is expecting to see increased ending stocks for corn and wheat and slight decline for bean stocks. Beans may not change too much on US ending stocks but South American numbers will be watched closely. Brazil’s production number shouldn't change but Argentina is expected to drop due to all the weather problems they have been seeing over the last several weeks. After this report the trade will shift its focus to the acreage/quarterly stock report at the end of the month. The dollar has been influential to commodity prices as of late and is stronger this morning. April cattle are higher at this time as box beef continues to climb. We have seen a sharp rally this week in wholesale beef with choice up .82 (196.90) and select up .29 (195.09) yesterday. Cash cattle traded 128.50 in Kansas this week which is up .50 from the prior week. Hogs took a big jump yesterday due to talks with China improving. Also traders were short covering after the huge decline in hog prices over the last month. The big story today will be the USDA report so expect positioning ahead of the 11:00 release. Please fill out the Allendale Planted Acreage Survey before Friday’s close. We will be releasing the results by email on March 15.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • May #Corn    +2 3/4
  • May #Beans   +3 3/4
  • May #Wheat   -1 1/4
  • Apr Cattle  +.15
  • Apr Hogs    -.37
  • Mar Dlr     +.02
  • Mar S&P     +5.75
  • Apr Crude   +.02
  • Apr Gold    +1.70

Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

Dollar Rally Impacts Ag Commodities

Mar 07, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 7, 2013 at 5:05 am. Grains are firmer after yesterday’s sharp sell-off. The USDA and CONAB (like USDA of Brazil) will be release reports during the next 2 trading sessions. CONAB's last production estimate for Brazil was 76 mmt of corn and 83 mmt of soybeans. The lineup of ships is rising in Brazilian ports. US ethanol production was down from last week and is now 11% below last year. The USDA was closed yesterday due to the snow storm in the Washington DC area. It is expected they will still be releasing the sales data this morning. Weekly export sales estimates are: #corn 450 to 650 tmt, #soybeans 900 to 1.200 tmt, soymeal 200 to 300 tmt, soyoil 5 to 15 tmt and #wheat 350 to 550 tmt. One reason for the recent slide in grain prices is money continues to leave commodities. The stock market continues to grind higher and investment money loves to chase after a rally. Part of the commodity problem is also related to the strength in the US dollar. It now is at levels not seen since August 2012. The Japanese Yen has fallen 8.5% vs. the US dollar so far this year. Japan’s government is printing Yen in order to encourage exports. They are our #1 beef buying customer and have seen US beef get expensive and Australian beef get cheaper! Rich Nelson, our Chief Analyst, took a look at the weekly export report, which only shows muscle cuts, and found a 41% drop in Japanese purchases vs. last year at this time. Boxed beef was higher again with choice up 2.21 and select up 3.28. This strength is coming from tight supplies of beef not an improvement in demand. Cash cattle traded at 128 yesterday. Pork cutout values continue to slide as it was down .47 on Wednesday. Steve Georgy will be writing the Wake-up Call for the next 6 days as I will be on vacation. Please fill out the Allendale Planted Acreage Survey before Friday’s close. We will be releasing the results by email on March 15.

Markets as of 5:05 AM

  • May Corn    +5 1/2
  • May Beans   +3 1/2
  • May Wheat   +1 3/4
  • Apr Cattle  -.10
  • Apr Hogs    +.75
  • Mar Dlr     -.02
  • Mar S&P     +2.25
  • Apr Crude   +.27
  • Apr Gold    +5.90

 

Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

Spreaders Set Sights On USDA Report

Mar 06, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 6, 2013 at 5:05 am. Grains are lower on profit taking after recent rally. Bull spreading remains the focus as tight cash holding by farmers and end-user demand play tug-o-war with prices. At what price will producers release grain? At what price will processors become aggressive buyers? The announcement of soybean sales by USDA yesterday has traders talking that China switched #soybean purchases from Santos, Brazil to the PNW. Weather in South America has become a nonevent as a market mover. US forecasts for rain in the plains has put pressure on the #wheat complex. The price relationship between #corn and wheat now has the price advantage for wheat to be used in livestock rations. There are several reports the trade will be watching as we finish out the week. Today the EIA will release ethanol production; Thursday morning we will get the weekly export sales and CONAB will gives us their estimates of corn and soybeans production in Brazil. Friday at 11:00 CST the Monthly USDA Supply and Demand will be watched closely. The trade is expecting an increase in corn ending stocks and a tighter soybean ending stocks. The CME announced yesterday their new trading hours for grains expect to take effect April 7. The markets will open at 7:00 pm CT and trade electronically through 7:45 am CT. They will close for 45 minutes then the open outcry and electronic markets will open at 8:30 am CT and trade until 1:15 pm CT. Tom Vilsack told the House Agriculture Committee that all of the nation’s 8,400 meat inspectors would be furloughed for 11 to 12 days each. The furloughs would be concentrated in the last three months of the fiscal year (July, August, and September). This news should not impact the nearby supply or demand of meats. Boxed beef prices jumped again on Tuesday. Choice was up 2.91 and select was up 3.44. The feeder index was up .19 to 139.91. Pork cutout values fell 1.79 on Tuesday. We look for choppy Ag markets going into Friday’s report.

Markets as of 5:05 AM

  • May Corn    -2 1/2
  • May Beans   -5 1/2
  • May Wheat   -1
  • Apr Cattle  -.30
  • Apr Hogs    -.65
  • Mar Dlr     +.08
  • Mar S&P     +4.75
  • Apr Crude   -.25
  • Apr Gold    -.90

Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

Grain Futures Are Higher on SA Delays

Mar 05, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 5, 2013 at 5:05 am. Grains are higher as soybeans lead the charge on slow shipments out of South America. A Brazilian official said that soybean shipments for February were only 960,000 tonnes compared to 1,600,000 last year. This has fueled the fire that China will be buying more soybeans from the US. Bull spreads continue to work in both corn and soybeans. The tight farmer holdings and firmer basis in the Midwest has helped build momentum in the spreads. The price of wheat is giving feedlots and end-users a reason to think about replacing corn with wheat. The double barreled moisture systems providing rain and snow to the northern plains yesterday and today combined with the forecast for another system to provide moisture to the southern plains is weighing on wheat futures. We were asked many times yesterday about wheat conditions when the USDA starts releasing them again. It will likely not be until early April when we get a nationwide conditions report. One would have to expect a considerable improvement due to the last report of 2012 being record poor. The USDA Monthly S+D Report will be out Friday at 11:00. Expectations are for corn stocks to rise and soybeans stocks to be tightened. ABARES says the Australian wheat crop will be 13% larger than last year. Secretary Vilsack will testify before the House Ag Committee today which may shed some light on meat inspector furloughs. An issue on our mind right now concerning pork is China. They had a March 1 deadline for the US to give them a ractopamine-free verification program. The US Meat Export Federation (not the USDA) has offered them a proposal but there is no response back at this point. Pork cutout values were up .62 supported by the winter storm. Boxed beef prices were up sharply on Monday with choice up 2.86 and select up 2.27. In the past six trading sessions this brings the total rally to $8.61 and $7.88 for choice and select respectively. Big gains have been made here as the market has lowered its supply estimates. The feeder index was up .85 at 139.72. There are only a few more days for you to participate in the Allendale Project Planting Survey.

Markets as of 5:05 AM

  • May Corn    +4 1/4
  • May Beans   +7 3/4
  • May Wheat   +1 3/4
  • Apr Cattle  +.22
  • Apr Hogs    -.17
  • Mar Dlr     -.11
  • Mar S&P     +3.50
  • Apr Crude   +.22
  • Apr Gold    +9.30

 

Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

Markets Wait for New News

Mar 04, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 4, 2013 at 5:05 am. Grains are mixed with corn and soybeans higher, #wheat lower. Moisture this week is due to provide Argentine crops with help to finish development. Traders are focused on the March USDA Supply and Demand Report due to be released on Friday at 11:00 AM CST. World production will be one of the watched numbers as the USDA’s current estimate of South American production is higher than other trade expectations. Of course the US ending stocks will be a highlight. Funds continued to reduce their long positions in corn and soybeans last week. Managed money is now holding long contracts of #corn of 52,075, down 13,228 and 122,998 contracts of #soybeans, down 3,520. Farmers remain strong holders of cash corn and soybeans. When talking to farmers at recent meetings it would appear it will take near 8.00 cash to have them open the bin doors again. May corn futures have resistance at 7.14, the 200 day moving average. Last week’s high and low should provide some resistance and support in the May soybeans. Boxed beef prices continue to firm as choice was up 1.94 and select was up .05 on Friday. Pork cutout values were down .26. The feeder index was up .70 to 138.70. Thanks to the AgriGold team for the great turnout in Riverside IA last week. This is the last week of the Allendale Planted Acreage Survey; we will be releasing the results on March 15.

Markets as of 5:05 AM

  • May Corn    +5 1/4
  • May Beans   +6
  • May Wheat   - 3/4
  • Apr Cattle  Steady-Higher
  • Apr Hogs    Steady-Lower
  • Mar Dlr     +.10
  • Mar S&P     -5.25
  • Apr Crude   -.15
  • Apr Gold    +4.30

Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

More Questions Than Answers

Mar 01, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 1, 2013 at 5:05 am. Grains are mixed with corn and wheat higher and soybeans lower on profit taking after Thursday's rally. Reporting this morning from Riverside, IA where we had a great turnout at last night’s meeting. After yesterday’s rally in grains traders have more questions than answers. As we have been saying for a few days the weather market in South America is over. The trade is now focusing on demand and after the rally yesterday on #China buying, how much more strength can we expect? We are nearing levels again where China canceled purchases of #soybeans. Corn demand picked up when prices fell below $7.00 but we are getting near levels where demand dried up. Look to charts for guidance when determining support and resistance. There were no deliveries for #corn and soybeans for March 1 however there were 471 contracts of #wheat delivered. South American shipping problems continue to provide support. The rally in the US Dollar index is providing some headwinds to grain and livestock futures. Watch for further headlines on budget cuts out Washington. Cash cattle traded $3 to $5 higher than last week which put this week’s top at $128 in the north. Boxed beef was higher with choice up .59 and select up .89. Hog packers margins are estimated at positive $10.00. IA-MN cash hogs were steady yesterday while eastern markets were 1.00 lower. Pork cutout values were down .48 on Thursday. The feeder cattle index was down .04 to 138.17. The Allendale-AgriGold meeting starts at 9:00 am. Your help is appreciated by filling out the Planted Acreage survey at www.allendale-inc.com.

Markets as of 5:05 AM

  • May Corn    + 3/4
  • May Beans   -10
  • May Wheat   +5 1/2
  • Apr Cattle  +.72
  • Apr Hogs    +.25
  • Mar Dlr     +.25
  • Mar S&P     -5.00
  • Apr Crude   -.93
  • Apr Gold    -11.20

 

Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

Log In or Sign Up to comment

COMMENTS

Legacy Newsletter
 

Follow Us

Facebook Twitter You Tube
 

Hot Links & Cool Tools

    •  
    •  
    •  
    •  
    •  
    •  
    •  

facebook twitter youtube View More>>
 
 
 
The Home Page of Agriculture
© 2014 Farm Journal, Inc. All Rights Reserved|Web site design and development by AmericanEagle.com|Site Map|Privacy Policy|Terms & Conditions