Corn Plantings Give Potential to Record Yields
Apr 18, 2012
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for April 18, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are mixed this morning following weaker demand ideas in China. The USDA said that as of Sunday the US farmer has 17% of the corn crop planted. IL had 41% planted as of last week with 6% average. KY, IN, and MO are also way ahead of average. Wheat conditions improved in the Good to Excellent category by 3% and spring wheat plantings were 37% versus 5 year average of 9%. Traders are talking about big yields already as the last 2 record planting pace years 2004 and 2010 resulted in record yields for corn. Spreading has been a major feature for corn and beans in recent weeks and is likely to continue. In several conversations yesterday with farmers it appears they are going to switch acres from corn to beans. Rich Nelson, Allendale’s Director of Research told me yesterday that it is likely to see corn acres and beans acres increase this year as price spreads now are in favor of beans and weather conditions are in favor of planting corn. The USDA will not give us the official number until June 30. Price spreads between old crop and new crop soybeans are attracting buyers to new crop due to the discount. The macro economic situation is a huge concern to traders and money flow. Watch headlines for direction. Cleaning up product inventories is a problem for packers and producers. Beef values were higher on Tuesday with choice up 2.21 and select up 1.67. The slowdown in packer production is finally taking effect. Pork cutout values are still struggling as Tuesday price was down 1.10. Only a few days left to get in on the "Planter Special", CALL TODAY!
Markets as of 5:10 AM
May Corn +1
May Beans -8 3/4
May Wheat +0
Apr Cattle +.35
Jun Hogs -.75
Jun S&P -1.00
Jun $ Ind +.33
May Crude -10
June Gold -3.50
Allendale Advanced Charts
May feeders closed above the 38% retracement level suggesting a bottom is in place. Next upside target would be the 100 day moving average at 154.20.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Barclays Capital estimates $2.2 billion in outflows hit commodity investments in March. This offset much of February’s $6.2 billion inflow.
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
