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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

EU Optimism Supports Markets

Nov 27, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 27, 2012 at 4:50 am. Grains futures are higher due to optimism after the Greece deal. The EU finance ministers agree on a package that cuts Greek debt to 124% of GDP by 2020 and will extend loans. The weekly crop conditions for wheat were lowered 1% by USDA this week to 33% good/excellent. This will be the poorest conditions going into dormancy for winter wheat on record. The current long term NOAA forecast suggests winter wheat conditions could worsen. It also implies above normal temps for the Midwest during corn and soybean planting. Weather conditions in South America have traders focusing on Argentina’s wet conditions. With the delay in corn planting there, traders are concerned about the timing of new crop harvest and the ability to fill world needs. However, December plantings are not too late for a good crop but it will be difficult to hit the March market with corn. Soybeans acres will likely increase in Argentina as they would in the US when plantings are delayed. Brazil is no longer the worry of traders as conditions there are mostly ideal. Export shipments out of South American ports are concerning to end users as some loading facilities are delayed 45 day or more. The direction of the US dollar will have an impact on trader sentiment as we move through the "fiscal cliff" negotiation and holiday trading volume. Livestock futures sold off yesterday on fund profit taking. Last week’s high will now be important resistance. We expect firm product markets this week on restocking by retailers. Choice beef was down .22 and select was down.14 on Monday. Pork cutout values were up .42. The Allendale Ag Leaders Conference is only 2 months away. Reserve your seat TODAY.
Markets as of 4.50 AM
Dec Corn    +4 1/2
Jan Beans   +10 1/2
Dec Wheat   +6 1/4
Dec Cattle +.30
Dec Hogs    -.50
Dec Dlr     +.07
Dec S+P     -1.00
Jan Crude   +.11
Dec Gold    -3.30
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Allendale Advanced Charts
With yesterday’s break above the $14.28 level, I believe that this negates the downtrend and confirms the 11/16 $13.72 1/4 low as the pivot low that must be broken in order reconfirm the downtrend. If my call is correct and we have seen the beginning of a base and reversal, a sideways to slightly higher bias is advised…Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The US grain trade expects USDA to revise down its 28 million tonne corn production estimate for Argentina. That could be seen on the next December 11 monthly supply/demand update. Some suggest there will be switching from corn to soybeans.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
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