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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Grains Recover Ahead Of Export Sales

Oct 30, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 30, 2013 at 5:00 am.  Grain futures are higher as traders bargain hunt ahead of export sales data.

Those of you who could not attend the Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar last night can listen to the comments by clicking here.

Grain markets are looking for a catalyst that will provide a rally. Currently, fundamental news is weighing on price as producers report above average yields in corn. Soybean yield reports are all over the board. Tomorrow, the USDA will give the export sales results for the last 3 weeks. The data will not be petitioned by week, we will see only a total for the period. The sale results are expected to be sizable as it is thought China was a buyer during that period when soybeans made recent lows.

The weather system that is forecast to move across the Midwest late this week will drive farmers out of the field and give them some time to move grain out of their farm storage facilities. This could have an impact on basis.

South American weather is improving for the corn and soybean planting season. Due to heavy rains this week in Argentina there is some concern that wheat, which is about 2 weeks away from harvest, has seen some damage. This could compound their already tight supply of "breading making" quality wheat.

The Fed will release the minutes of their meeting this afternoon. Traders will be looking for comments regarding when tapering may begin.

In the last three sessions lean hog futures rallied a total of $3.80 in the December and $4.35 in the February. Yesterday’s 52 cent lower close does not imply a top, it would suggest profit taking. Adding to the confusion the newly released August trade info showed August pork exports 4% lower than last year while imports were 9% higher than last year. Pork cutout values were down .77.

December and February live cattle futures posted their highest close of this uptrend on Tuesday. There is talk that cash cattle could trade at new highs again this week. Beef cutout values were higher with choice up 1.12 and select was up .62. The CME Feeder index is 165.35 up .02.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Dec Corn    + 3/4
  • Nov Beans   +6 3/4
  • Dec Wheat   +2 1/4
  • Dec Cattle  +.10
  • Dec Hogs    -.15
  • Dec Dlr     -.05
  • Dec S&P     +5.25
  • Dec Crude   -.63
  • Dec Gold    +2.80
Chart of the Day

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