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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Holiday Trade Arrives Early

Nov 15, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 15, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grains are mixed in a quiet overnight session. Export sales data will be released on Friday morning due to the Veterans Day holiday last Monday. Markets have been relatively quiet as the major index rolls are complete and the holidays approach. Next week the grain markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving and will trade on Friday the 23rd from 9:30 am to 12:00 pm. With the uncertainty of the US financial situation, traders are reluctant to build positions. The weak 2 day rally in grains will likely have longs turning seller again unless we get some announcement of sizeable US grain exports. The Mississippi River issue is causing freight rates to jump and Illinois River basis to drop. Other Midwest basis continues to move higher as farmer selling is limited. Traders are looking for signs that the White House and Congress are ready to compromise and find a solution to the budget problem. However, the Presidential press conference left viewers with the feeling a decision will not be made until the final hour. Bull spreading in corn and soybeans seems logical as near term supplies should provide underlining support. Chart resistance in Dec corn is 7.32 which was old support. The 7.05 area should now be support. January soybeans are in a range between 14.00 and 14.50 currently. Wheat has fallen to long term support and has positive fundamentals. Talk to your Allendale Representative for trading ideas. Livestock, historically, is volatile as we approach the Thanksgiving holiday. Moore Research has highlighted a few livestock spreads that should be considered. Choice beef was down .17 to 193.22 and select was down .29 to 174.90 on Wednesday. Pork cutout values were down 2.55 to 81.57. Join us at the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference on Jan 25 and 26.
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    +1 1/2
Jan Beans   -6
Dec Wheat   +4 1/4
Dec Cattle -.10
Dec Hogs    -.40
Dec Dlr     +.09
Dec S+P     +4.50
Dec Crude   -.11
Dec Gold    -6.30
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Dec Lean Hogs is building a bull flag pattern in this latest bit of sideways trade between 80 and 81. In order to see this pattern activated, we would need to see a close above 81.35…Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The Chinese government has indicated it will buy corn and soybean from producers at prices higher than last year’s normal fall procurement. They will offer to buy corn from 2,100 to 2,140 yuan per tonne which is up 7%. Their soybean offered price will be 4,600. That would be up 15% from last year.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

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