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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Light Volume Ahead of Weekend

Aug 30, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 30, 2013 at 5:00 am.  Grain futures are lower in a light volume overnight session. Traders are evening positions ahead of the long weekend and after the recent rally. Traders will be getting ready for the potential fireworks on Monday evening.

Thanks to all who have helped with Allendale’s 24th Annual Yield Survey. Data collection closes at 3:00 PM central time. Allendale will release the results on Wednesday morning at 7:30 am.

The amount of rain coverage over the weekend and the forecast released on Monday will have a greater impact on markets than today’s forecast. Currently the Euro weather model has become wetter for the 1 to 5 day period which is more in line with the GFS model. The longer-term models have been very inconsistent which suggests Monday night trade could provide a sharp move in either direction.

Today is first notice day for delivery against the September futures contracts. There were no deliveries in corn and soybeans.

Export news: A Taiwanese purchasing group buys 60,000 tonnes of Brazilian corn. Argentina is expecting China to approve the final remaining genetically modified corn variety for import.

In the weekly export sales data, the US sold 868,000 tonnes of new crop soybeans. That brings the total sales of new crop soybeans for the 2013/14 marketing year to a record 724 million bushel or 52% of the USDA’s projected sales.

Cash basis at Midwest end-users were steady to lower with no farmer selling. Gulf basis was weak as southern corn producers harvest a record crop. Yield reports on early harvest are in the mid 200’s.

Cash cattle trade remains at a standstill. Beef cutout values were lower with choice down .57 and select down 1.20. The CME Feeder Index was set at 154.76 down .17. We looked at the discount of October hog futures to cash index compared to historical relationships and found that on a percentage basis, current levels are normal. Pork cutout values were down .36 on Thursday. More position evening is likely going into the long weekend.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Dec Corn    -4                         
  • Nov Beans   -14 1/2
  • Dec Wheat   -1
  • Oct Cattle  -.02
  • Oct Hogs    -.05
  • Sep Dlr     +.02
  • Sep S&P     +3.25
  • Oct Crude   -.81
  • Oct Gold    -18.30

 

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Light Volume Ahead of Weekend

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