Sep 14, 2014
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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Will We Get Confirmation Of Cancellations Today?

Jan 24, 2014

Will We Get Confirmation Of Cancellations Today?

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for January 24, 2014 at 4:30 am.  Grain futures are mixed in a quiet overnight session. Traders are waiting for confirmation of soybean cancellations by China on the Weekly Export Sales Report.

Allendale’s Ag Leader Conference starts Tuesday. Drew Lerner will be the first presenter and his session will be seen only LIVE at 2:00 pm. The session Wednesday and Thursday will be live and also recorded for you to view later. Sign up TODAY!

There is more talk of international grain merchants switching origin from US to Brazil for soybeans going to China. Current pricing is now as much as 1.00 per bushel advantage for South America. Harvest is progressing and yields are above average.

Traders will be closely watching this morning’s Weekly Export Sales Data at 7:30 for any cancellations or switching of origin in soybeans. Trade estimates from Reuter’s survey are:

                          Estimates (in tonnes)   
Wheat               300,000-600,000     
Corn                  250,000-650,000     
Soybeans           300,000-625,000  
Soymeal            100,000-250,000  
Soyoil                           0-30,000

Cash corn basis has firmed up slightly as producers have not had a huge incentive to move grain in the extreme cold weather now covering the Midwest. Soybean basis is drifting lower as export and crusher demand is sluggish.

The grain exchanges in Argentina are raising their estimates of the soybean crop as producers have planted more acres of soybeans this year. The recent rains were beneficial to previous and newly plant seed.

Yesterday’s devaluation of the Argentine Peso caused a decline not seen in 12 years. This has two effects for the Argentine grain markets. It makes their exports cheaper for foreign buyers but on the other hand it causes the farmer to hold on to the grain longer as it is much better to have the hard asset than cash.

Several US grain groups are urging Syngenta to stop commercial production of the GMO corn that has not been approved by China. They’re reason is this grain may disrupt our export markets.

Cold weather over the winter wheat areas is providing support to CBOT wheat contracts.

Cattle on Feed report this afternoon will be important for livestock and grain markets. Traders are expecting 94% on feed, 98.1% placed and 102.2% marketed of a year ago. Futures are well below cash prices this week but some profit taking ahead of the report could be expected. Beef values were lower with choice down 1.50 and select was down .51. The packers margins are still in the black and may be looking for more cattle this week. The CME Feeder Index is 170.23.

The Ontario Pork Group has confirmed that the PEDv has crossed the border into Canada. Pork cutout values were up .52 on Thursday. The effects of PEDv on the hog price outlook will be discussed at the Thursday session of the Ag Leaders Conference.

Markets as of 4:30 AM

  • Mar Corn    -1 3/4
  • Mar Beans   -2 1/4
  • Mar Wheat   +1 1/4
  • Feb Cattle  +.07
  • Feb Hogs    +.50
  • Mar Dlr     +.03
  • Mar S&P     -9.25
  • Mar Crude   -.62
  • Feb Gold    -2.70

Chart of the Day


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