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AgDay Daily Recap -Aug 13, 2014

August 13, 2014
 
 

 

TODAY ON AGDAY
AUGUST 13, 2014
 
OPEN HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY - USDA FORECASTING POTENTIAL RECORD ROW CROPS...WE'LL HEAR FROM THE EXPERTS. PLUS, SOUTHERN CROPS ROARING BACK IN 2014. IN AGRIBUSINESS...WHAT SHOULD DAIRYMEN BE THINKING ABOUT IN 2015. AND IT'S BEEN A WILD WEATHER SUMMER-MAKING IT TOUGH FOR GREEN THUMBERS. MISSOURI EXTENTION HAS HELP FOR THOSE GARDENERS PURSUING PERFECTION.
AGDAY BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE ALL NEW CHEVY SILVERADO - THE 2014 NORTH AMERICAN TRUCK OF THE YEAR.
USDA REPORTS:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. BY THE TIME HARVEST IS COMPLETED THIS FALL AND CORN AND BEAN CROPS ARE SAFELY STORED AWAY, PRODUCTION RECORDS COULD BE SHATTERED...AND THAT'S OUR TOP STORY ON AGDAY.
PRODUCTION:
LOOKING AT CORN PRODUCTION, USDA EXPECTS A RECORD 14 BILLION BUSHELS OF CORN WILL BE HARVESTED THIS YEAR, EVEN THOUGH ACREAGE IS DOWN FOUR PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR. YIELD COMES IN AT 167-AND A HALF BUSHELS AN ACRE. THAT FIGURE IS BELOW ANY OF THE PRE-REPORT TRADE ESTIMATES.
PROFARMER REAX:
BOTH OF THOSE PRODUCTION ESTIMATES - IF REALIZED THIS FALL - WOULD BE RECORD SIZED CROPS. AS WOULD EXPECT OUR PARTNERS AT PROFARMER HAS SORTED THRU THE DATA. PROFARMER EDITOR BRIAN GRETE GIVES US HIS INSIGHT, BRIAN.
GRAIN STOCK:
CLINTON…AS FAR AS THE CORN SUPPLY - USDA PUTS OLD CROP CARRYOVER AT JUST UNDER ONE-POINT-TWO BILLION BUSHELS AND NEW CROP CAME IN AT ONE-POINT-EIGHT BILLION BUSHELS. OLD CROP SOYBEANS REMAIN THE SAME, BUT NEW CROP WAS BOOSTED A BIT.
DARREL REAX GOOD:
CLINTON…AS FAR AS THOSE SUPPLY-AND-DEMAND CHARTS, AG ECONOMIST DARRELL GOOD FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS SAYS HE EXPECTS CORN CONSUMPTION TO CONTINUE.
WHEAT:
LOOKING AT OTHER CROPS FROM THIS REPORT - USDA SAYS WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION IS UP TWO PERCENT FROM THEIR JULY FORECAST. YIELD WAS ALSO BOOSTED BY NEARLY A BUSHEL FROM A MONTH AGO. PEANUT PRODUCTION IS UP 22-PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR. THE AVERAGE YIELD IS DOWN A BIT FROM LAST YEAR, BUT OVERALL RECORD YIELDS ARE EXPECTED IN TEXAS AND VIRGINIA. RICE PRODUCTION IS ALSO HIGHER THAN YEAR. USDA BOOSTED ITS PROJECTIONS BY 20-PERCENT OVER LAST YEAR. AVERAGE YIELD IS DOWN OVERALL, BUT A RECORD YIELD IS EXPECTED IN TEXAS.
COTTON:
TODAY'S REPORT ALSO INCLUDED THE FIRST PRODUCTION FORECAST FOR U.S. COTTON. NASS EXPECTING ALL COTTON PRODUCTION TO BE 17.5 MILLION BALES--EACH BALE WEIGHING 480 POUNDS. THAT'S UP 36 PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR. THE AREA PLANTED TO UPLAND COTTON CLIMBED 10 PERCENT ON THE YEAR TO AN ESTIMATED 11 MILLION ACRES. RECORD YIELDS ARE EXPECTED IN ARIZONA, ARKANSAS, FLORIDA AND OKLAHOMA.
NOAA JULY:
ALRIGHT THANKS MIKE. SO JUST HOW WILD WAS JULY'S WEATHER. NOAA RELEASING A MAP IS WEEK SHOWING THE RECORD SETTING MONTH STRETCHING BOTH SIDES OF SCALE.
TEASE:
THE YEAR ISN'T OVER BUT ITS NEVER TOO EARLY TO START THINKING ABOUT 2015. FARM DIRECTOR AL PELL TALKS DAIRY IN THE NEW YEAR NEXT IN AGRIBUSINESS...
PLUS A HUNDRED DOLLAR IDEA FROM A MISSOURI FARMER MAY KEEP YOUR GRAIN TRUCK RUNNING STRAIGHT! DETAILS RIGHT AFTER MIKE HOFFMAN'S WEATHER.
ANALYSIS:
MIKE NORTH FIRST CAPITOL AG HERE AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK HERE ON AGDAY MIKE LET'S TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT THE DAIRY AND WHAT THE PRODUCERS SHOULD DO BECAUSE WE LOOK 5 6 YEARS DAIRIES WERE REALLY IN KIND OF A BIND BUT THAT HAS CHANGED BECAUSE FEED PRICES THEY WENT DOWN AND EVEN THOUGH WE STILL GOT A FEW MORE COWS I THINK THAN WE HAD BUT PRODUCTION PER COW HAS WENT UP. YES WELL OBVIOUSLY 2009 WAS NO FUN AND WERE REBOUNDING FROM THAT BOTH IN TERMS OF COW NUMBERS AND BALANCE SHEETS IMPROVING ULTIMATELY AS WE LOOK FORWARD AND START TALKING ABOUT WHAT THE OPPORTUNITY IS YOU KNOW AS WE CAST OUR EYES OUT INTO 2015 THERE'S OBVIOUSLY SMALLER MILK PRICES BUT TO GO WITH THAT IN HARMONY WITH WHAT YOU WERE JUST SAYING. RIGHT WE HAVE LESSER FEED COSTS THERE'S A REALLY NICE OPPORTUNITY BEING PAINTED FOR 2015 EVEN THOUGH THE MILK PRICES AREN'T AS TALL AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY AND SO WE NEED REALLY STILL FOCUS ON THE MARGIN ELEMENT AND WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT WHERE THE MONEY IS MADE AND WHEN WE TALK ABOUT $18 DOLLAR MILK IN 2015 ON THE CLASS 3 THERE IS STILL GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR PRODUCERS AND SO WE'VE BEEN YOU KNOW TALKING WITH OUR CLIENTS AND SAYING LETS TAKE A CLOSE LOOK AT THIS YOU KNOW WHERE ARE YOU AT WITH FEED PROTEIN PRICES HAVE COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY CORN PRICES ARE DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE ENTER INTO THIS NEXT YEAR WHAT'S YOUR COST OF PRODUCTION LOOK LIKE AND WHEN YOU START COMPARING THAT TO THE $18 DOLLAR PRICES THERE ARE SOME GOOD OPPORTUNITIES OUT THERE YOU SPEAK TO THE GROWTH IN COW NUMBERS WERE UP 56,000 COWS THIS YEAR AT THIS POINT JUST NORTH 60,000 COWS SHY FROM WHERE THE 08 PEAK WAS SO PRODUCTION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND WILL GIVEN THE CURRENT PRICE STRUCTURE THAT WILL COME BACK AT A LATER TIME AND SO WE NEED TO START NOW FOCUSING ON WHAT THOSE OPPORTUNITIES ARE AT A MARGIN LEVEL AND LOOKING AT MILK RELATIVE TO FEEDING GETTING SOME THINGS IN PLACE GETTING SOME PUTS BOUGHT FOR 2015 MILK MAYBE MAKING SOME SALES IF YOU'RE READY TO COMMIT TO THAT $18 DOLLAR PRICE. PRODUCERS HAVE BEEN USING MORE EFFICIENT COWS NO QUESTION ABOUT THAT YOU THINK THEIR EVER GOING TO START FEEDING AND USING COWS THAT AREN'T PRODUCING ANYMORE. WELL YOU KNOW I GIVE MORE CREDIT ACTUALLY TO THE MANAGEMENT THEN I DO TO THE COWS. OKAY. YEA IT'S BEEN IT'S CERTAINLY A GROWTH IN EFFICIENCY NO QUESTION. OKAY THANK YOU VERY MUCH MIKE NORTH OUR GUEST HERE AT AGDAY.
WX:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY. MIKE TAKING A LOOK HERE, WE'RE TALKING COOL AGAIN. WE'RE IN AUGUST AREN'T WE IT'S SUPPOSED TO BE 100 DEGREES AND JUST SWEATING THROUGH OUR CLOTHES. BEEN DOING THAT A LOT THIS SUMMER SO FAR... CUT OFF REALLY SITTING OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA JUST CONTINUES TO PUMP IN THE COOL AIR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ITS LOOKS LIKE FOR THE ENTIRE CORN BELT. NOW THE WESTERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP A LITTLE BIT BUT IN THE MEAN TIME YOU CAN SEE A LOW PRESSURE SITTING THERE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER ONE KIND OF FORMING ALONG THE FRONT JUST EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... AND THAT WILL CONTINUE TO KIND OF MOVE OFF SHORE. SO HIGH PRESSURE IS GOING TO DOMINATE AND THAT'S GOING TO BE THE KEY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ONE OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY... NOW ANOTHER ONE STILL COMING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA WHICH GUESSES WHAT HAS SOME MORE COOL AIR WITH IT. NOW THIS IS NOT REAL CHILLY AIR BUT NONE THE LESS IN AREAS WHERE YOU DONT GET A LOT OF SUNSHINE UNDERNEATH THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE YOU MAY SEE HIGHS IN THE 60'S FOR A DAY. BUT THAT'S GOING TO BE A-TYPICAL. THAT WON'T BE THE NORMAL. YOU CAN SEE OUT WEST, MULTIPLE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE KIND OF MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE MAIN ONE GOING TO BE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA…THAT'S GOING TO BE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD AT LEAST TRYING TO BRING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CORN BELT. BUT YOU CAN SEE THAT FIRST COLD FRONT ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THAT WILL BE WHERE A LOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. AND WE'RE GOING TO HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT WITH THIS COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. YOU CAN SEE THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REALLY POPUP PRETTY GOOD OVER THE FOUR CORNER REGION ON UP INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES. AS WE SAW FROM THE SOIL MOISTURE EARLIER... MONTANA CAN USE A WHOLE BUNCH ALL OF A SUDDEN. WE'VE JUST BEEN SEEING THINGS GET DRIER AND DRIER THERE. PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS A LOT OF IT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDATLANTIC STATES AND DOWN INTO FLORIDA. AND ALSO IN ARIZONA GETTING SOME DECENT AMOUNTS OF RAIN...ADDING ON THE NEXT 36 HOURS YOU'LL SEE WE DON'T ADD A WHOLE LOT IN THE NORTH EAST JUST A LITTLE BIT MORE IN NEW ENGLAND AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND A LITTLE BIT MORE IN FLORIDA. BUT WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST…TEMPERATURES HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON 60'S AND 70'S WITH A FEW 80'S THROWN IN THERE FOR THE GREAT LAKES OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST. 90 DEGREES ALL THE WAY DOWN TO NEW ORLEANS THAT'S A PRETTY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WITH 80'S FARTHER NORTHWARD FROM THERE. ONLY A FEW 90'S SHOWING UP THERE IN TEXAS. FARTHER NORTH YOU CAN SEE THE COOL AIR SIXTIES DOMINATE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES THE CORN BELT WITH A FEW 50'S IN THE GREAT LAKES AND YOU CAN SEE TOMORROW JUST NOT A HUGE AREA OF 90'S LIKE YOU'D TYPICALLY SEE IN AUGUST. THE SOUTHWEST OBVIOUSLY HOT AS WELL... THERE'S THE TROUGH AND JUST LOOK AT IT. IT SITS THERE. THURSDAY FRIDAY ON INTO SATURDAY NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND BEFORE MOVING AWAY, AND OUR COMPUTER MODEL NOW SHOWING A REALLY WEAK TROUGH COMING IN TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THAT MIGHT TAMP DOWN THE HEAT A LITTLE BIT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY. THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY NOW LETS A LOOK AT THE LOCAL FORECASTS. FIRST OF ALL FOR LUBBOCK TEXAS TODAY MOSTLY SUNNY HOT AND RATHER HUMID WITH A  HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 92 DEGREES... LACROSSE WISCONSIN PARTLY SUNNY A THUNDERSHOWER IN SPOTS HIGH OF 80. AND OCALA FLORIDA HOT AND HUMID A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LIKELY HIGH OF 89...
100 IDEA CLAFIN:
DURING HARVEST TIME - WHEN WEATHER MAYBE FIGHTING AGAINST YOU FARMERS WANT TO GET THEIR GRAIN TRUCKS BACK TO THE FIELD AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE. DUMPING THE GRAIN INTO A DRIVE-OVER PIT CAN BE SLOWED-UP SOMETIMES WHEN YOU'RE NOT QUITE SURE YOU'RE LINED-UP CORRECTLY OVER THE PIT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF YOU'RE RUNNING DIFFERENT LENGTHED TRUCKS AND TRAILERS.
100 IDEAS CALL FOR ENTRIES:
CHARLES IS A "BEST OF THE BEST" 100 DOLLAR WINNER. DO YOU HAVE A CLEVER FIX ON YOUR FARM? LET US KNOW. YOU MIGHT WIN 100-DOLLARS. TO ENTER OR SEE OTHER WINNING IDEAS VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT AGWEB-DOT-COM-FORWARD SLASH-IDEAS. YOU CAN ALSO SEE OTHER CLEVER CONTRAPTIONS IN EACH ISSUE OF FARM JOURNAL MAGAZINE.
TEASE:
WE HEARD ABOUT LOT ABOUT ROW CROP PRODUCTION TO START THE SHOW...ABOUT TREE FRUITS. THOSE NUMBERS COMING UP INTO FOOD AND YOUR FAMILY…
ITZ MIZZOU LAB:
WE'VE TALKED A LOT TODAY ABOUT THE UN-CHARACTERISTIC SUMMER WEATHER AND ITS IMPACT ON FARMERS. BUT IT'S ALSO MESSING WITH HOME GARDENERS.
IN THIS REPORT FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI EXTENSION, LATISHA HICKEM TELLS US ABOUT HELP FOR GREEN-THUMBERS.
ITC TAG:
ALRIGHT...JUST AHEAD, WHAT TO EXPECT FROM APPLE AND PEACH PRODUCERS THIS YEAR.. DETAILS NEXT IN ...FOOD AND YOUR FAMILY...
CLOSE:
CLINTON THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN. FOR MIKE HOFFMAN, AND AL PELL. I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.
RFD PROMO:
CLINTON…WEDNESDAY ON AGDAY, USDA ROLLS OUT ANOTHER BIG REPORT.
BUT WHAT DOES IT MEAN TO MARKETS? THE EXPERTS WEIGH IN.
PLUS DAIRY'S PLANNING AHEAD FOR 2015...WHAT TO WATCH FOR.
RECORD SETTING TEMPS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE DIAL IN JULY
JOIN 8 EASTERN ON RFD.
STATION PROMO:
CLINTON…THURSDAY ON AGDAY, IT MAY BE THE SMALLEST NATIONAL CATTLE HERD IS DECADES BUT WHERE AND HOW WILL PRODUCERS EXPAND. WE'RE TAKING AN INDEPTH LOOK. PLUS THESE ANIMALS EAT SO HOW IS HAY PRODUCTION GOING? DETAILS FROM USDA THURSDAY ONLY ON AGDAY.
 

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