Weather conditions across the country are expected to remain unstable into the coming summer according to Allen Motew, QT Weather meteorologist, as La Nina persists. The weather phenomena typically brings weather that is drier and warmer than normal.
Motew warned farmers attending the Top Producer Seminar he anticipates corn and soybean yields to be low and the season to be similar to droughts of 1974 and 1988. Current weather patterns and predictions are extremely similar to the patterns during this part of the year in ’74 and ’88.
While the La Nina weather pattern is a major influencer, he doesn’t attribute all of the anticipated adverse conditions to La Nina alone.
Along with La Nina, North Atlantic Oscillation patterns directly influence his forecast for the summer. NAO is a measurement of pressures around the artic and sub tropic regions and is to blame for all the snow we have seen in the North East as well as the freezing temperatures of the South.
Motew predicts that during the early summer, May, June and July we will have a flooded north and very hot dry south. Warming temperatures in the north will create flooding conditions as the large amounts of snow pack in the northern plains melts. "
Of major concern are the northern plains; severe flooding is predicted," Motew says. During this part of the summer drought is predicted by Motew to move to the Corn Belt.
Unfortunately the drought intended for the U.S. does not stop there according to Motew. During the summer months of July, June and August the warmer than normal temperatures are predicted to expand north into the western Corn Belt country, south into Arkansas, Louisiana and parts of Mississippi and east into the Tennessee valley.
Anticipated drought will continue to influence volatility in the markets. According to Motew during the drought periods of 1974 and 1988 futures skyrocketed, corn yields decreased 28%, and beans also skyrocketed as yields dropped. Motew suggests producers watch the weather situation closely and its relationship to the markets. His weather outlook ended with a laugh as he told producers to "Enjoy the growing season."