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WASDE: Reduced Export Prospects Raise Wheat Ending Stocks

December 11, 2012

WHEAT: Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are raised 50 million bushels reflecting lower prospects for exports again this month. Projected exports are lowered 50 million bushels reflecting the slow pace of sales and shipments to date and higher expected competition from foreign supplies. U.S. exports are projected 45 million bushels lower for Hard Red Winter wheat, 10 million bushels lower for Soft Red Winter wheat, and 5 million bushels lower for Hard Red Spring wheat. White wheat exports are raised 10 million bushels. The projected 2012/13 season-average farm price for all wheat is lowered 10 cents at the midpoint and the range is narrowed to $7.70 to $8.30 per bushel.

Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 are projected 1.6 million tons higher as a 3.7-million-ton increase in world production more than offsets lower beginning stocks mostly reflecting higher 2011/12 wheat feeding for China. China wheat production for 2012/13 is raised 2.6 million tons based on the latest official estimates from the National Bureau of Statistics. Production for Australia and Canada are raised 1.0 million tons and 0.5 million tons, respectively, also based on the latest official government estimates. Partly offsetting these increases are small reductions for Brazil and EU-27.

Global wheat exports for 2012/13 are raised slightly this month. Exports are raised 0.5 million tons each for Australia, EU-27, and India, more than offsetting the U.S. reduction. Exports are
lowered for Paraguay and Turkey. Imports are raised for Brazil, China, Iran, and Russia, but lowered for Turkey. Global wheat feeding for 2012/13 is raised slightly with reductions for EU-
27 and Australia more than offset by increases for China, Canada, and Iran. For EU-27, higher corn imports and feeding offset the reduction in expected wheat feed use. World wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 2.8 million tons higher on increases for the United States, Australia, Russia, and EU-27.


Coverage, Analysis of the Dec. 11 USDA Reports
See all of the data, coverage and analysis of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Crop Production reports.

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RELATED TOPICS: Wheat, Marketing, USDA, Global Markets

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