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WASDE: Soybean Production Rises 44 Million Bushels

January 11, 2013
Soybeans
  

OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2012/13 is estimated at 92.7 million tons, up 1.4 million tons
from last month. Larger crops for soybeans, sunflowerseed, and peanuts are partly offset by
reductions for canola and cottonseed.

Soybean production is estimated at 3.015 billion bushels, up 44 million bushels based on increased yields and harvested area. The soybean yield is estimated at 39.6 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels from the previous estimate.

Soybean crush is raised 35 million bushels to 1.605 billion bushels reflecting higher projected domestic soybean meal consumption and increased soybean meal exports. Soybean meal domestic consumption is raised in line with projected gains in meat production, especially for pork and poultry.

Soybean exports are unchanged at 1.345 billion bushels. Soybean ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 135 million bushels, up 5 million from last month. Soybean oil balance sheet changes include increased production, exports, and ending stocks.

The projected range for the 2012/13 season-average soybean price is lowered 30 cents at the midpoint and narrowed to $13.50 to $15.00 per bushel. The soybean oil price is forecast at 49 to 53 cents per pound, unchanged from last month. The soybean meal price is projected at $430 to $460 per short ton, down 10 dollars on both ends of the range.

Global oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at a record 465.8 million tons, up 2.8 million due to increases for soybeans, cottonseed, peanuts, and sunflowerseed. Global soybean production is
projected at 269.4 million tons, up 1.7 million with gains in the United States and Brazil only partly offset by a lower projection for Argentina. The Brazil soybean crop is increased 1.5 million tons to a record 82.5 million reflecting record area and improving yield prospects. Higher projected yields are the result of favorable moisture throughout the center west and southern growing areas. The Argentina soybean crop is projected at 54 million tons, down 1 million mainly due to lower projected area resulting from excessive moisture throughout much of the central growing area.

Other changes include increased cottonseed production in China and Australia, and increased sunflowerseed production in India and the United States.

Global oilseed trade for 2012/13 is projected at 115.3 million tons, up slightly from last month.  Increased soybean exports for Brazil are offset by a comparable reduction for Argentina. Higher  soybean meal exports mainly reflect increases for the United States and China. Soybean meal  consumption and imports are projected higher for several countries including Indonesia, South Korea, Mexico, Russia, and Iran. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 66.6 million tons, down 0.3 million from last month as reduced soybean stocks in Argentina and China are only partly offset by higher stocks in Brazil and the United States. 

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