LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 2013 forecast for total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month. Beef production is raised in 2013 on greater cow and bull slaughter. The pork production forecast for 2013 is raised as lower hog slaughter in the second half is more than offset by heavier average carcass weights. Both broiler and turkey production are raised for 2013 based on the strength of production and hatchery data to date. Egg production is unchanged.
For 2014, the total red meat and poultry forecast is reduced. The beef production forecast is raised as higher second-half production increases more than offset a reduced first-half forecast. Placements are lowered for the third and fourth quarters in 2013 but raised for first-quarter 2014 as more cattle are kept on pasture and winter wheat for placement early next year. Partly offsetting the increase in later-year marketings and relatively high early-year cow slaughter is a small reduction in carcass weights. Pork production is unchanged for 2014. USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on September 27, providing an indication of producer farrowing intentions into early 2014. For 2014, broiler and turkey production forecasts are reduced as soybean meal prices are forecast higher and turkey returns remain under pressure through the early part of the year. The egg production forecast is lowered for 2014 as table egg production growth will be dampened by higher soybean meal prices.
Beef imports are reduced for 2013 based on the current pace of imports with a reduced forecast carried through 2014. Global beef supplies are tight and demand by competing importers is expected to limit growth in U.S. imports. Beef exports are higher for 2013 based on the strength of shipments to date. The forecast for 2014 is unchanged. Pork exports are raised for both years as export demand to countries in Asia and North America continues to be strong. The 2013 broiler export forecast is reduced as recent exports lagged expectations, but the forecast for 2014 is unchanged. Turkey exports are unchanged for 2013 but lowered for 2014.
Cattle prices for 2013 and 2014 are unchanged from last month. Hog prices for both 2013 and 2014 are unchanged from last month. The broiler price forecast for 2013 is lowered based on current price weakness. The forecast for 2014 is unchanged. The turkey price forecast is reduced for 2013 on relatively weak demand and slightly higher production, but 2014 is unchanged from last month with slower forecast production growth. Egg prices are forecast higher for 2013, reflecting current prices; the forecast for 2014 is unchanged.
The 2013 milk production forecast is reduced from last month, reflecting recent slower growth in milk production. The production forecast for 2014 is unchanged. For 2013 fat basis and skim-solids imports are lowered slightly from last month. Exports are raised for 2013 and carried into 2014 on strong international demand for dairy products. With forecast export demand, fat and skim-basis ending stocks are reduced in 2013 and 2014.
Product price forecasts are mostly higher, with strong export demand and tightening supplies supporting increases for nonfat dry milk (NDM), butter and cheese prices in 2013 and 2014. The whey price forecast is unchanged for 2013 but raised for 2014. With increased product prices, Class III and Class IV price forecasts for 2013 and 2014 are higher. The all milk price is forecast at $19.70 to $19.90 per cwt for 2013 and $19.35 to $20.35 per cwt for 2014.
Coverage, Analysis of the Sept. 12 USDA Reports
See all of the report data, coverage and analysis of the Sept. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Crop Production reports.