WHEAT: Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are raised 50 million bushels this month. Exports are projected 50 million bushels lower reflecting the slow pace of sales and shipments, and an outlook for increased foreign competition. Projected U.S. exports are lowered 25 million bushels each for Hard Red Winter (HRW) and Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat. Projected all-wheat imports are unchanged, but imports are projected slightly higher for HRW wheat with an offsetting reduction made for SRW wheat imports. The projected range for the 2012/13 season-average farm price is narrowed 10 cents on both ends to $7.75 to $8.45 per bushel.
Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 are projected 1.9 million tons lower. Beginning stocks for 2012/13 are lowered 0.3 million tons. Higher 2011/12 feed and residual disappearance in EU-27 and lower production for China account for most of the reduction in global 2012/13 beginning stocks. Higher 2011/12 production for Pakistan and lower exports for Australia raise 2012/13 beginning stocks for both countries and partly offset the reductions for EU-27 and China. Global wheat production for 2012/13 is lowered 1.6 million tons. Production is reduced 2.0 million tons for Australia as continued dryness during grain fill in October further reduced yield prospects in western and southeastern growing areas. Production is also lowered 0.3 million tons for Turkey based on the latest confirmations that cool, wet weather during the early growing season delayed development, increased disease problems, and lowered yields in the country’s central growing region. Small increases are made in production for Pakistan, EU-27, and Algeria.
Global wheat trade is raised for 2012/13, reflecting the continuation of strong shipments from the Black Sea region and India, and the growing competiveness of wheat from the EU-27. Exports are raised 2.0 million tons for Ukraine, 1.0 million tons each for EU-27 and Russia, and 0.5 million tons for India. Partly offsetting these increases is a 1.5-million-ton reduction for Australia with the smaller expected crop and the 1.4-million-ton reduction projected for U.S. exports. Imports are projected 2.7 million tons higher with increases for China, Egypt, EU-27, Israel, Kenya, and Mexico.
Global wheat feeding for 2012/13 is lowered 2.5 million tons with reductions for EU-27, Russia, Ukraine, South Korea, and India. Small increases in expected wheat feed use for Egypt, Israel, and Japan limit the global decline. World wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 1.2 million tons higher with increases for the United States, Pakistan, China, and Egypt. Lower stocks are projected for Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, and Australia. At the projected 174.2 million tons, global stocks remain 46.0 million tons above the recent low in 2007/08.
Coverage, Analysis of the Nov. 9 USDA Reports
See all of the data, coverage and analysis of today's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Crop Production reports.