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What USDA Didn’t Say in this Week’s Report

June 15, 2013
By: Sara Schafer, Farm Journal Media Business and Crops Editor
unknown markets
  

Jerry Gulke overviews what USDA released in this month’s round of major crop reports, as well as what they should have said.

The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Crop Production reports released on June 12 by USDA generated more questions than answers.

USDA did acknowledge this spring’s challenging planting season will decrease the size of the corn crop, but just barely. Projected corn production was lowered 135 million bushels to 14 billion, with the average yield projected at 156.5 bu. per acre, down 1.5 bushels from May.

But, USDA did not reduce corn acreage estimates. Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, said I the past USDA has changed acreage estimates when planting issues were obvious. "I don’t know how you could get more obvious than what is going on in North Dakota and Iowa, but they were reluctant to do anything with acres."

On June 28, USDA will release its Acreage report. While the report is not released until the end of the month, Gulke says USDA is polling farmers now. "I guess they are waiting for their formal survey that will come out on June 28 to change acreage estimates."

Hear Gulke's full audio analysis:

Gulke says the bottom line with this round of report is – USDA didn’t change much.

"We ended up in a situation that wasn’t so much about what was said, it was what wasn’t said," he says. "You couple that with the weather, and the market retreated from where it was."

Gulke says the markets looks tired. "I view these markets as somebody climbing a hill. Pretty soon if you don’t feed the guy good news every time he makes another step, he doesn’t quite make it to the top. And then, he kind of gives up."

Have a question for Jerry? Contact him at 815-721-4705 or jerry@gulkegroup.com.

 

For More Information
Read more coverage and analysis from the June 12 reports:

USDA Notes Weather Concerns as it Raises Prices
USDA tightened the U.S. supply-and-demand outlook for both old- and new-crop corn but left the soybean numbers pretty much unchanged.

Why We Should Just Throw Out this USDA Report by Ted Seifried

USDA Report Snapshot from the Trading Floor by Joe Vaclavik

Report Causes Price Drop by Dustin Johnson


See current market prices in AgWeb's Market Center
 


 

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COMMENTS (3 Comments)

WhyMeJake
Well said, both times. LOL But what you say leads me to a question that I have brought up before. If we cannot trust someone or some thing, how can we ever believe what they say. Of what worth are they? In other words, the USDA cannot be trusted EVER, they don't really help the farmers without strings attached and could just as well be closed. Seriously, we can't trust government, something is very wrong in this country.

Ask yourself this question, if they are lying who are they trying to help? No it's not cheap food for Americans. Figure out the price of wheat and how much it actually costs, hint there are 40 pound and a half loaves in a bushel. About 20 cents a loaf. Double the price of wheat and a loaf of bread goes up 20 cents.

Big business would love to buy below the cost of production, making us a slave to government payments and all rules they wish to impose. It's about control and POWER. Close the USDA, we won't miss them. Not when we cannot trust them. They are somebody's pawn but not us farmers.

Seen any farm analysts suggest we should sell our crops NOW? Ever wonder why when we have had short crops especially last year and another one this year. Do they want us to sell before the price finally explodes? When enough of the world realizes they are being lied to. If you could not trust your spouse, would your marriage last?

If you could not trust a business partner, would you still do business with them? What benefit is there continuing to help the USDA depress prices? They are our enemy. It's like the DNR, they think they own all rights to how land should be used. Without any compensation. They want to CONTROL you and me. Don't believe me, let your field cultivator stray about 10 feet into a "wetland". Friends don't lie to you or try to take advantage of your relationship, that's what you call an enemy.
12:04 PM Jun 15th
 
FG - cuba, IL
To be honest it really is hard to know what final yields will be. In my area (Fulton Co, Illinois) we have a lot of drowned out crops that will have to be replanted at reduced yields. And more switched to soybeans.

But regardless, the USDA will try to talk down any problems so that markets will not react and food prices will not jump. If you are thinking of playing optins, just remember that game is rigges against you and the USDA is part of that problem.

If you remember the 1993 phony reports by USDA you know what Imean.
9:16 AM Jun 15th
 
FG - cuba, IL
To be honest it really is hard to know what final yields will be. In my area (Fulton Co, Illinois) we have a lot of drowned out crops that will have to be replanted at reduced yields. And more switched to soybeans.

But regardless, the USDA will try to talk down any problems so that markets will not react and food prices will not jump. If you are thinking of playing optins, just remember that game is rigges against you and the USDA is part of that problem.

If you remember the 1993 phony reports by USDA you know what Imean.
9:16 AM Jun 15th
 



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