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Current Marketing Thoughts

RSS By: Kevin Van Trump, AgWeb.com

Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.

Thoughts on the Coming USDA Report

Oct 09, 2011

I'm thinking the market is going to trade in a small range until the highely anticipated USDA report is released this Wednesday.  There are numerous balls being held up in the air right now, and it's impossible to accurately predict when they will fall and which way they will bounce.  Will the USDA keep corn yields under 149-149.5?  Will they reduce harvested acres to 700,000?  IF these things happen, I think we go screaming higher.  The question is, will the funds jump in and help propel us?  I don't know, but if they don't we will have a hard time moving higher.  In terms of soybeans, we could see a either a "reduction" or "gain" of 100,000 harvested soybean acres, the trade sees a possibility for either.  Another question they really don't have a grasp on is soybean yields, could they actually be lowered?  In terms of other markets, will Argentina and China ink their trade deal allowing GMO corn exports?  We still have little idea of how much they could potentially be willing to export.  In terms of beans, I continue to hear rumors that they are sitting on large quantities of high quality beans. Question is, when will they begin to aggressively move these beans?  When they do, they will be the cheapest source for beans.  

Ultimately, we could see either a limit-up or limit-down move come Wednesday.  The biggest questions is, will the "Outside Markets" hold up, giving enough confidence for the large traders to get involved?  If you would like more help with answers to some of these question, sign-up for my daily report.  There is no cost or obligation, you can receive the free trial by clicking HERE.  

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