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May 2011 Archive for Market Watch

RSS By: Alan Brugler, AgWeb.com

Alan Brugler is the President of Brugler Marketing & Management, and the primary analyst and advisor.

Water, Water Everywhere

May 27, 2011

Brugler

Market Watch with Alan Brugler

May 27, 2011

Water, Water Everywhere

 

There is an old saying that there is water, water everywhere, nor any a drop to drink. That can mean saltwater as it did in the Ancient Mariner, or it can mean polluted water. In the case of US agriculture, it is a picture of water in the wrong places. The USGS is showing flooding at 238 of its 4865 gauges across the United States. Places from Montana to Maine to Louisiana have more water than the rivers can hold, and those rivers are spilling out in to cropland and making it unavailable for farming. The US Army Corps of Engineers indicted that flows on the Missouri River will increase in June and remain above normal for all of 2011, based on existing snow pack.

FloodMap 

Meanwhile, Parts of Texas, the OK Panhandle, SW KS and New Mexico can’t buy a raindrop. Some clients report less than an inch of precip since August 2010! That has had a negative impact on yields for winter wheat, and dim prospects for corn, cotton and milo in dryland areas.  This is all influencing the price of grain, where fundamentals still matter even if they are occasionally overshadowed by investment flows and fretting about the US dollar.

Corn peaked on Monday morning, then spent the last three days of the week recovering from a Monday/Tuesday sell off tied to a strong US dollar at the time and to fund liquidating July longs ahead of month end.  Old crop was not able to reach the highs set in April. December futures posted new life of contract highs because of ongoing planting delays and several surveys lowering projected US planted acres and projected production. Export sales were adequate, but there is definitely resistance to buying new crop at this price level until there is no other alternative. Weekly ethanol production was up from the prior week, as the market dip back at mid-month allowed plants to get some hedge coverage on and lock in positive margins. 

Soybeans fell ½ cent per bushel in the nearby July contract.  Soy oil gained 2%, but meal was down 1.39% for the week and there just wasn’t enough product value there to get the beans up on the week. The Census Crush report showed the smallest April crush since 2004. Despite the cutback, soybean meal inventories rose and soy oil stocks were also larger than expected.  Our work suggests that prevented planting payments are more attractive than planting soybeans, and planting corn at lower yields still beats soybeans at current prices in the revenue per acre. Thus, beans have not been threatened by the prospect of a slug of unanticipated acreage. Chinese demand is still a concern, with more than 6.7 MMT of imported soybeans reported to be at Chinese ports and the government still trying to force down veg oil prices, soybean prices or both as part of an anti-inflation campaign.

Wheat futures were up 1% in Kansas City, where the crop problems appear to have been built into the price structure, and where harvest is now underway. Minneapolis, on the other hand, rose 5.65% for the week. As of last Sunday only 54% of the spring wheat crop had been planted, and some of the growing areas reached the prevented planting insurance date or will do so in the next week. It is possible to plant after the PP date, but you lose insured yield and risk losing actual yield unless the weather is very good. Canadian planting conditions have also been hurt by too much water, raising questions about crop size there. Chicago futures were up a modest1.6%, still outstripping corn. November French futures rose above the February peak due to dryness problems there, and that helped boost the US contract.  The US dollar also slid from Tuesday to Friday, aiding dollar denominated commodity prices in general.

Cotton futures finished the week 1.89% lower. USDA confirmed that for the 9th consecutive week global buyers had cancelled or deferred more old crop cotton commitments than they bought. That is, net export sales were once again negative as buyers who got a little too enthusiastic back in Jan-Mar are trying to make their input costs resemble their selling prices for yarn and fabric. US cotton planting progress is sticking fairly close to the 5 year average pace despite flooding in the Mississippi River basis and the ongoing and severe drought in Texas.


Here are the Friday night closes for the past four weeks, along with the net change for this week vs. the previous week:

 

 

Commodity

 

 

 

 

Weekly

Weekly

Month

05/06/11

05/13/11

05/20/11

05/27/11

Change

% Change

July

Corn

6.8625

6.82

7.595

7.585

0.01

0.13%

July

CBOT Wheat

7.595

7.2775

8.065

8.1975

0.13

1.64%

July

KCBT Wheat

8.74

8.695

9.3325

9.43

0.10

1.04%

July

MGEX Wheat

9.0375

9.0025

9.9975

10.5625

0.57

5.65%

July

Soybeans

13.26

13.295

13.8025

13.7975

0.01

0.04%

July

Soybean Meal

349.5

345.4

360.6

355.6

5.00

1.39%

July

Soybean Oil

55.69

56.14

57.46

58.61

1.15

2.00%

June

Live Cattle

109.85

109

104.975

104.1

0.88

0.83%

Aug

Feeder Cattle

132.77

132.45

125.75

122.72

3.03

2.41%

June

Lean Hogs

92.375

94.55

91.975

88.925

3.05

3.32%

July

Cotton

145.56

145.15

155.61

152.67

2.94

1.89%

May

Oats

3.39

3.445

3.64

3.8275

0.19

5.15%

July

Rice

14.375

13.98

15.1

15.185

0.09

0.56%

 

Cattle futures were down sharply on Monday but came back to end the week down only 0.83%. Packers were in great position at midweek, with wholesale beef prices rising and cash cattle trading at lower levels than last week. Cash firmed as the week went on after hedge related selling knocked it down on Monday and Tuesday.  Choice boxed beef prices were up 1.62% on a Thursday/Thursday basis. For the week, USDA estimated production 2.9% larger than the same week in 2010. Slaughter was 2.8% larger, which is no surprise given larger feedlot inventory all year.

 

Hog futures were down a sharp 3.3% for the week, with all of the sell pressure on Monday and Tuesday. The lean hog value dropped$3.05. The wholesale value of the carcass lost $5.48 for the week, or 5.74%. Much of that came on a steep one day $12 drop in the reported value of pork loins on Thursday. They were back up $1.91 on Friday. USDA estimated pork production up 0.3% for the week, but 7% larger than the same week a year ago. Pork production YTD is now up 1.2% from 2010.

 

Market Watch:  The US markets will be closed on Monday for the Memorial Day holiday. That will delay the USDA Crop Progress report and Export Inspections report to Tuesday release slots.  The weekly Export Sales report will also be delayed from Thursday to Friday morning. Friday will also mark the last trading day for several June options series, notably June Live Cattle.

 

There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading.  Such trading is not appropriate for all individuals. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  Comments made in this article are in no way to be seen as an endorsement of futures and options trading. Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this article without written consent of Brugler Marketing & Management LLC is strictly prohibited.  Call 402-697-3623 for information on our individualized subscription and consulting services.

 

 Copyright 2011 Brugler Marketing & Management, LLC

Instability

May 20, 2011

 brulogomed

Market Watch with Alan Brugler

May 20, 2011

Instability

 

Corn was sharply higher this week, ending a two week correction with a gain of $0.77. The bull story is still planting delays. Progress should be in the 78-80% range in Monday’s report, but sources are now suggesting that anywhere from 800,000 to 1.9 million acres of intended corn will not be planted because of flooding and/or delays that are severe enough to make soybeans a better alternative. One firm in Chicago is calling for nearly 4 million acres of prevented plant claims, more than double last year. Dry-land corn in drought stricken areas of Southern Texas is short and tasseling and many acres will most likely be shredded if rains don’t come soon. 

 

Soybeans gained 51 cents per bushel for the week.  Rising Chinese prices for veg oils supported the bean market there. While USDA showed almost no new crop export bookings in the weekly export sales report on Thursday morning, they did announce a new crop sale to China under the daily reporting system. The NOPA crush earlier this week was 121.3 mb but didn’t include 1 crusher which reduced the total. The COPA crush was the highest it has ever been 4.812 Marketing YTD. Soybean planting this week showed 22%, behind average.

 

Wheat futures were up almost $1 per bushel at one point.  For the week, MPLS was up more than 11%, due to continued slow planting progress for spring wheat. KC gained 7.3%, and Chicago was up 10.8%.  Drought in Europe boosted MATIF futures above their February highs at mid-week, with various analysts calling for French production to be down anywhere from 5 to 11%. Germany is also affected, but is seen as having better chances of rain relief. The US futures are cheap compared to the EU, leaving room for the rally. US wheat condition ratings continued to deteriorate, with southern HRW now too mature to be helped by rain. Some SRW wheat has excellent potential, while other areas have suffered from nitrogen leaching. Early harvest has begun in Georgia, and also in Texas.

Cotton futures finished the week higher, up 10.46 cents or 7.21%. USDA reported net negative weekly export sales for old crop cotton for the eighth week in a row. That Thursday morning report confirms that mills are having difficulty passing on historically high cotton prices to the yarn and retail textile level. Cancellations and/or deferrals to new crop 2011/12 delivery slots continue to run larger than new sales. New crop cotton got a little bit of support from flooding that took out some cotton ground adjacent to the Mississippi River and its tributaries. Bulls were disappointed by planting progress in Texas, which is close to average. Dryness is not an acceptable reason for a prevented planting insurance claim, so the crop needs to be planted. If it later dies due to drought, that is covered.

Here are the Friday night closes for the past four weeks, along with the net change for this week vs. the previous week:

 

 

Commodity

 

 

 

 

Weekly

Weekly

Month

04/29/11

05/06/11

05/13/11

05/20/11

Change

% Change

July

Corn

7.565

6.8625

6.82

7.595

0.77

11.36%

July

CBOT Wheat

8.0125

7.595

7.2775

8.065

0.79

10.82%

July

KCBT Wheat

9.02

8.74

8.695

9.3325

0.64

7.33%

July

MGEX Wheat

9.48

9.0375

9.0025

9.9975

1.00

11.05%

July

Soybeans

13.94

13.26

13.295

13.8025

0.51

3.82%

July

Soybean Meal

363.6

349.5

345.4

360.6

15.20

4.40%

July

Soybean Oil

58.58

55.69

56.14

57.46

1.32

2.35%

June

Live Cattle

113.35

109.85

109

104.975

4.03

3.69%

May

Feeder Cattle

131.9

129.125

128.7

125.45

3.25

2.53%

June

Lean Hogs

95.225

92.375

94.55

91.975

2.58

2.72%

July

Cotton

158.02

145.56

145.15

155.61

10.46

7.21%

May

Oats

3.525

3.39

3.445

3.64

0.20

5.66%

May

Rice

14.015

14.35

13.985

15.1

1.12

7.97%

 

Cattle futures were down a sharp 3.69% for the week. Long liquidation continues to be a problem, with open interest down 32,000 contracts in the last four weeks. The Board weakness led to cash cattle weakness this past week, as hedgers took advantage of a $3 positive basis and sold their cash cattle into weakness. Wholesale beef on a Thursday/Thursday basis for choice boxed beef was up $1.01.  The USDA weekly red meat production report on Friday showed production for the week totaled 918.9 million pounds, up 1.1% from last week and down 1.2 % from last year. Friday afternoon’s USDA Cattle on Feed report showed May 1 On Feed at 107.4 % of year ago. Placements were at the highest level since 1996 at 109.9 and Marketings were at 97.31%. The placement number was the 5.3 % higher than the average trade guess. Drought in Texas and Oklahoma as well as northern Mexico has moved cattle to feedlots ahead of schedule.

 

Hogs were down 2.72% on the week. The Friday afternoon USDA Cold Storage report showed the number of pork bellies in storage was 107% of last year at this time and rose 1% from the prior month. Total pork in Cold Storage was 545.8 million lbs, 113% of last year and down 5% from last month. The pork carcass cutout value was up 1.61 for the week after setting new all time highs on Monday.

 

 

Looking to enhance your existing Ag Marketing Professional subscription? Add free futures market quotes sent to your cell phone via our Market Monitor service. Or "push" the daily recommendations out to your phone as they happen with Market Messenger 2. Call in consulting service with Alan is also available for a limited number of new customers in our Ag Marketing Professional Premium package. Call our office for details on either service at 402-289-2330. 

 

Market Watch:  Livestock traders will start the week reacting to the Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage reports. The cash markets will also be influenced by pre-Memorial Day activity and the level of producer activity in the field. Grain traders will have to deal with new futures positions inherited with the expiration of the June options on Friday. USDA’s Crop Progress report on Monday afternoon will receive some attention, as the trade tries to price in crop planting delays. The main government reports for the week will be on Thursday, with Census Crush and Cotton Consumption numbers released, along with the weekly USDA Export Sales report. By Friday, trading volume and the pit population are expected to be light, as market participants stretch the 3-day Memorial Day weekend into 4 days. Month end position squaring and asset allocation adjustments will become more of a factor as we head into the weekend.

 

There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading.  Such trading is not appropriate for all individuals. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  Comments made in this article are in no way to be seen as an endorsement of futures and options trading. Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this article without written consent of Brugler Marketing & Management LLC is strictly prohibited.  Call 402-697-3623 for information on our individualized subscription and consulting services.

 

 Copyright 2011 Brugler Marketing & Management, LLC

 

 

Greasing the Slide

May 13, 2011

Brugler

Market Watch with Alan Brugler

May 13, 2011

Greasing the Slide

 

Maybe we should have said "greecing" the slide. Greek debt issues came to the surface again this week, torpedoing a rally in the euro and strengthening the US dollar index (which is weighted heavily to the euro). GDP growth in the northern portion of the EU has been solid, but the southern countries lag. The stronger dollar was a headwind for commodities priced in dollars. Gasoline futures were the latest to have a flash crash, with a 32 cent per gallon plunge on Wednesday and Thursday. At the end of the week, energy futures were being supported by concerns about the flooding on the lower Mississippi River. The Morganza spillway was expected to be opened this weekend, which should help keep the multitude of refineries along the River operating, but is a threat to the main Colonial pipeline feeding the East Coast.

 

Corn ended the week down 0.55%, a mere 4 cents per bushel after sliding more than 9% the previous week. The market received several bearish inputs during the week, including more rapid than expected planting progress the prior week, very slow US export sales, and an upward revision in USDA projected ending stocks to 730 million bushels. It appears that much of this bearishness was priced in by the previous week decline. The dollar was also stronger all week. The bull story is still planting delays. Progress should be in the 55-60% range in Monday’s report, but sources are now suggesting that anywhere from 800,000 to 1.6 million acres of intended corn will not be planted because of flooding and/or delays that are severe enough to make soybeans a better alternative.

 

The soybeans gained 12 cents per bushel for the week, offsetting some of their 68 cent loss from the previous week. Soy oil posted a small gain for the week, while soybean meal was lower. USDA raised old crop ending stocks to 170 million bushels, cutting projected exports because of a slow down in Chinese imports. However, USDA also reinforced ideas of continued tightness in new crop supplies. At their projected 76.6 million planted acres and 43.4 bushel yield, ending stocks would actually shrink to 160 million bushels by August 2012. USDA does see expansion of Argentine production next fall, but does not see Brazil exceeding this year’s record crop. Chinese soybean acreage is expected to be smaller in 2011, due to competition from other crops with better margins.

 

Wheat was lower in Chicago and KC, but the MPLS market managed a higher weekly close. USDA reported a bearish 427 million bushels in expected SRW production, which under even the most ambitious feeding estimates would leave a buildup of SRW stocks in 2012. KC saw some precip in the northern portions of HRW country, helping to salvage some yield potential. On the other hand, triple digit temps did further harm to wheat in the southern Plains and there is little rain in sight. USDA left old crop ending stocks UNCH at 839 million bushels. They do see a drop to 702 million bushels by June 2012, despite a sharp decline in exports next year as the FSU-12 countries get back in the export business.

Cotton futures struggled all week, and all contracts except for the July were down on Friday. USDA put the 2011/12 cotton ending stocks at a more comfortable 2.5 million bales, and also raised old crop ending stocks to 1.8 million bales due to a slowdown in exports. World stocks are expected to expand by virtue of a sharp expansion in global production.  US production is expected to be 18 million bales, actually a touch smaller than last year due to a more conservative yield estimate.

Here are the Friday night closes for the past four weeks, along with the net change for this week vs. the previous week:

 

 

Commodity

 

 

 

 

Weekly

Weekly

Month

04/21/11

04/29/11

05/06/11

05/13/11

Change

% Change

May

Corn

$7.37

7.54

6.8275

6.79

0.04

0.55%

May

CBOT Wheat

$8.00

7.6925

7.245

6.96

0.29

3.93%

May

KCBT Wheat

$9.33

8.93

8.68

8.5875

0.09

1.07%

May

MGEX Wheat

$9.52

9.4525

9.1075

9.1175

0.01

0.11%

May

Soybeans

$13.81

13.9275

13.25

13.37

0.12

0.91%

May

Soybean Meal

$358.80

358.1

344.9

343.1

1.80

0.52%

May

Soybean Oil

$58.27

58.13

55.37

55.75

0.38

0.69%

June

Live Cattle

$115.23

113.35

109.85

109

0.85

0.77%

May

Feeder Cattle

$132.98

131.9

129.125

128.7

0.43

0.33%

May

Lean Hogs

$102.05

95.275

93.35

92.85

0.50

0.54%

July

Cotton

$167.51

158.02

145.56

145.73

0.17

0.12%

May

Oats

$3.90

3.425

3.31

3.485

0.18

5.29%

May

Rice

$14.00

14.805

14.095

13.8

0.30

2.09%

 

 Cattle futures were down 85 cents for the week, exactly what they lost on Friday. Beef exports for March were up sharply from year ago, and are still running at 2003 or better levels. Supplies are expected to start to pick up seasonally, but there was no evidence of that in the weekly Red Meat production report. That report showed beef production for the week down 2.9% vs. the same week in 2010, and also down 0.8% from the previous week.

 

Hogs were down 50 cents for the week. Bulls got things to munch on, like the March export data. That report, released on Thursday, showed an all time record high for export shipments of pork in March. That explains the March surge in the pork cutout values, but gives little guidance to prices in May. Japan and South Korea were known large buyers at the time. Mexico is a wild card, particularly with respect to ham prices. The US dollar is weaker than it was in March, but has been firming. Pork production YTD is up 1% from 2010.

 Market Watch: We’re past the May WASDE report, but there are still plenty of data points to accumulate. NOPA will release a monthly Crush report on Monday morning. USDA will release the closely watched Crop Progress report on Monday evening. This will show how far behind US corn and soybean plantings are vs. their average pace.  The weekly USDA Export Sales report is due on Thursday morning.  On Friday, livestock traders get some fresh government data via the monthly Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage reports.  Friday will also mark the expiration of the June grain options.

 

There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading.  Such trading is not appropriate for all individuals. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  Comments made in this article are in no way to be seen as an endorsement of futures and options trading. Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this article without written consent of Brugler Marketing & Management LLC is strictly prohibited.  Call 402-697-3623 for information on our individualized subscription and consulting services, or see our Web site at www.bruglermarketing.com.

 

 Copyright 2011 Brugler Marketing & Management, LLC

 

 

Heading For The Hills?

May 06, 2011

Brugler

Massive price swings were the hallmark of the first week of May. You had silver futures losing 28% of their value in a single week, and crude oil down more than $10 in a 24 hour period. Corn, soybeans and wheat were not immune to either the “risk off” trading moves or the volatility. While much of this was attributed to long liquidation by funds tied to a large New York bank/trading firm, open interest didn’t decline proportionally to the size of the price moves. The moves were magnified by algo traders whose systems on occasion “parked” due to the volatility. This was a symptom of the 2010 Flash Crash in the stock market, and appeared to pop up at times in the commodities trading this week. Removing that liquidity, while a sane decision for the trading entitiy at the time, magnifies the price volatility by creating thinner market conditions. We would note that interest rates dropped all week as the cash fleeing the commodities markets was parked in low yields government securities. It is unlikely to stay there for long.
 
Corn ended the week down 9.45%. Liquidation of old crop contracts pressured the market, with a bearish USDA export sales report on Thursday feeding ideas that USDA will lower projected exports and raise ending stocks on Wednesday. Weekly ethanol production was also down from the previous week, suggesting plants are still having margin difficulties. The index fund wash out contributed to the sell off, with open interest declining more than 12 thousand contracts on Thursday alone. Planting progress was being made in the WCB, with scattered reports of producers being done planting corn. However, east of the Mississippi is a totally different story, with many farmers unable to even do preparatory spraying and no planting done. The trading community in general expects USDA to show 27 to 32% of the crop planted through Sunday.
 
The soybeans followed corn lower, losing 68 cents to the 71 cents for corn. That was a 4.86% drop for the beans for the week. Soybean meal was down 3.7%, and soy oil lost 4.75%. Census showed a sharp increase in soy oil used for biodiesel production, but the plunge in crude oil and distillates took bean oil right back down. Chinese prices for palm oil and soy oil were also down amid continued government efforts to limit price advances. Crude oil was down 13% for the week. Soybean export sales were poor, with almost no new crop bookings the last week of April. Traders are looking for USDA to raised old crop ending stocks to 151 million bushels, based on a Bloomberg survey.
 
Wheat was lower at all three exchanges, despite rallies on Friday.  USDA reported weekly exports of. 549,600 MT, which were on the upper end of trade guesses and stood out in stark contract to lousy corn, soybean and rice sales. The average trade estimate for USDA winter wheat production is 1.387 billion bushels. That is 98 million bushels lower than last year, despite much larger 2011 acreage. The Kansas WQT group estimated production in that key state at 256.7 million bushels on an average yield of 37.4 bushels. The tour has been under the May USDA estimate in 7 of the past 10 years, but on average is light by less than 1%. India decided to delay selling any excess wheat out of their inventory for at least another 30 days, excluding special government to government sales.
 
Cotton futures collapsed as May cotton expired. Prices dropped 11.56 cents on Friday, and lost 24.98 cents for the week. USDA again reported negative weekly export sales for old crop. Cancellations continue to be larger than weekly sales. The industry is having trouble passing on the prices to the consumer, and in fact is also seeing more competition from synthetic fibers and recycled fiber. ICAC is projecting an increase in global ending stocks for 2011/12, with a double digit percentage increase in global production and very small growth in global use.
Here are the Friday night closes for the past four weeks, along with the net change for this week vs. the previous week:
 

 
Commodity
 
 
 
 
Weekly
Weekly
Month
04/15/11
04/21/11
04/29/11
05/06/11
Change
% Change
May
Corn
$7.42
$7.37
7.54
6.8275
0.71
9.45%
May
CBOT Wheat
$7.44
$8.00
7.6925
7.245
0.45
5.82%
May
KCBT Wheat
$8.66
$9.33
8.93
8.68
0.25
2.80%
May
MGEX Wheat
$8.89
$9.52
9.4525
9.1075
0.35
3.65%
May
Soybeans
$13.32
$13.81
13.9275
13.25
0.68
4.86%
May
Soybean Meal
$345.20
$358.80
358.1
344.9
13.20
3.69%
May
Soybean Oil
$56.84
$58.27
58.13
55.37
2.76
4.75%
June
Live Cattle
$115.30
$115.23
113.35
109.85
3.50
3.09%
May
Feeder Cattle
$133.30
$132.98
131.9
129.125
2.78
2.10%
May
Lean Hogs
$102.42
$102.05
95.275
93.35
1.93
2.02%
May
Cotton
$195.52
$186.67
178.78
153.8
24.98
13.97%
May
Oats
$3.83
$3.90
3.425
3.31
0.12
3.36%
May
Rice
$13.64
$14.00
14.805
14.095
0.71
4.80%

 
 Cattle futures were down 3.1% for the week. Cash cattle asking prices started out at $118, but quickly evaporated in the face of bearish futures charts and sliding wholesale beef prices. The Select boxed beef quote was down $5.58/cwt for the week, a 3.2% decline that just about explains the drop in the futures. Packers were getting less, and paying less for cattle. Beef production YTD has been running about 0.8% above last year, with carcass weights running 10 pounds or more above year ago. USDA reported solid weekly export sales of 17,100 MT but ready cattle numbers are increasing seasonally and grilling demand has yet to pick up enough to offset.
 
Hogs were down a more modest 2.02% for the week, but have seen a dramatic $10.85 drop since peaking on April 14. The pork carcass cutout value dropped $2.87 for the week on a Friday/Friday basis, down 3.1%. Pork bellies were down more than 8.5%. Average carcass weights are running 3-4 pounds above year ago, keeping pork tonnage on the high end for the number of animals being slaughtered.
 
 
Looking to enhance your existing Ag Marketing Professional subscription? Add free futures market quotes sent to your cell phone via our Market Monitor service. Or “push” the daily recommendations out to your phone as they happen with Market Messenger 2. Call in consulting service with Alan is also available for a limited number of new customers in our Ag Marketing Professional Premium package. Call our office for details on either service at 402-289-2330. 
 
Market Watch: The main USDA reports this week are the Crop Production and WASDE reports, to be issued on Wednesday morning. Winter wheat production will be highlighted in the former, and USDA will take its first stab at global 2011/12 production and balance sheets in the latter.  There will of course also be interest in the weekly crop progress reports on Monday evening, with the trade looking for US corn planting to be in the 28-32% range and soybeans somewhere under 10%. The USDA Weekly Export Sales will be of interest on Thursday morning, mostly for the new crop slots. USDA showed almost no new crop export business for corn, soybeans and rice in the May 5 report. There is interest whether the price decline was starting to attract buyers. Keep in mind that the export sales numbers will only be through May 5. Friday will mark the expiration of the May grain futures contracts. May cotton expired on the 6th, making July the new lead month. In volume terms it already was.
 
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Such trading is not appropriate for all individuals. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Comments made in this article are in no way to be seen as an endorsement of futures and options trading. Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this article without written consent of Brugler Marketing & Management LLC is strictly prohibited. Call 402-697-3623 for information on our individualized subscription and consulting services.
 
 Copyright 2011 Brugler Marketing & Management, LLC
 
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