Jul 12, 2014
Home| Tools| Events| Blogs| Discussions| Sign UpLogin


January 2010 Archive for Hedging Corn and Soybeans

RSS By: Howard Tyllas, AgWeb.com

Howard Tyllas is currently a member of the Chicago Board of Trade and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a floor broker and as a Commodity Trading Advisor.

March Soybeans Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 1/29/10

Jan 29, 2010


This report was sent to subscribers on 1/28/10 6:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 1/29/10. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

Do yourself a favor and get your numbers after the market is closed to be used for the next session trading. Why wait to read my comments last posted over 2 weeks ago when you can read it in real time?

Read the comments from the last 2 weeks posted below the chart today. Ask yourself how much would it have been worth to read my comments and get my numbers daily? 

March Soybeans

After the close on 1/29/10: My pivot acted as resistance and was 9.32, .04 3/4 from the actual high, and my support was 9.16 1/2, just .02 3/4 from the actual low.

Ask yourself, how well would I have traded this market if I had these numbers last night? Subscribe now! See for yourself why the second year of service had quadrupled my subscriber base

  We cannot post every market, if you are interested sign up for free & get "how I use my numbers".

Sign up For Free 1 Day Trail of Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas

Sign Up for the Free Live one on one Farmer Hedging Program Webinar By: Howard Tyllas

9.47 1/2 FG

-------------9.32      Pivot

9.16 1/2  

9.10 1/4 

   Use the same numbers as used on 1/28/10

Trend

5 day chart.…...Down (from last week same day)                                                

Daily chart   …….…Sideways                

Weekly chart …….. Sideways        

Monthly chart …Sideways $9.88 is the 200 DMA

ATR 20                     Oversold 15%



I continue to say "Bracket line is first resistance (red), steep downtrend line is pivotal now, bears eye Octobers low".   

In charting, when a resistance is hurdled it becomes support, and when the support is broken it becomes resistance.

In my daily numbers on Thursday my pivot acted as resistance and was .05 1/2 from the actual high; my support was .04 1/2 from the actual low.    Daily Numbers service actual results for 1/29/10 were:

Grains: My resistance was $.04 3/4 from the actual high and my support was $.02 3/4 from the low in soybeans, and my resistance was $.01 3/4 from the actual high and my support was $.01 from the low in corn.

Crude Oil: My resistance was 0.44 from the actual high; my support was 0.02 from the actual low.

S&P:  My resistance was 6.00 from the actual high; my support was 4.25 from the actual low.

Gold: My resistance was $4.90 from the actual high; my support was $1.30 from the actual low. 

Euro:  My resistance was 0.04 from the actual high; my support was 0.40 from the actual low.

Bonds: My resistance was the EXACT actual high; my support was 3 from the actual low. 

Natural Gas: My resistance was .027 from the actual high; my support was .034 from the actual low.   

Cattle: My resistance was .07 from the actual high; my support was .22 from the actual low.

for 1/29/10 Grains: Accurate corn and soybean numbers. Market looks and feels pathetic. No action to the upside. Option premiums could change quickly, but for now there are little odds for a rally. Example: March corn closed on Thursday at $3.61 3/4 , you can have the right to be long March corn from a price of $3.70 for just under $350 (6 7/8 cents) and the expiration of these calls for March is in 3 weeks from today. The most you can lose is what you paid, no margin ever needed, and if they do rally, it is no different than a futures contract above $3.70.

Even being bearish I am disappointed in the inability of the bulls to show any willingness to add to their longs at this level. I would like to see a corrective rally near resistance for my newly arrived producers to be willing to sell, and us speculators a good place to enter a sell. I would continue to have a small "core" short position for a long term trade, but I would enter more at resistances. I would use a buy stop above one of the gaps, depending on what I was willing to make if right. I have no problem to take a sell at resistance for a day trade, but would be more comfortable if they were trading at higher levels.

I still like buying December corn (CZ) and selling November soybeans (SX) as a spread, and I have also liked for some time is buying MPLS or KC wheat and selling Chicago wheat. I have the same thoughts as yesterday going into the weekend. I think we can work lower next week.

March Soybeans for 1/28/10

Numbers results for 1/27/10 were:

Grains: My resistance was $.02 1/4 from the actual high and my support was $.04 from the low in soybeans, and my resistance was $.01 3/4 from the actual high and my support was $.04 from the low in corn.

Crude Oil: My resistance was 0.17 from the actual high; my support was 0.20 from the actual low.

S&P:  My resistance was 2.75 from the actual high; my support was 2.00 from the actual low.

Gold: My resistance was $2.40 from the actual high; my support was $1.10 from the actual low. 

Euro:  My resistance was 0.23 from the actual high; my support was 0.16 from the actual low.

Bonds: My resistance was 3 from the actual high; my support was the EXACT actual low. 

Natural Gas: My resistance was .046 from the actual high; my support was .039 from the actual low.   

Cattle: My resistance was .35 from the actual high; my support was .30 from the actual low.

Grains: Markets breathe, and for now the bears have run out of breath and need to inhale after exhaling all the way to my longer term support levels. The corn and soybean markets are at maximum oversold conditions which tell me a corrective bounce is near in a day or two. But after coming down as much as they have and the market barely has enough strength to trade above the pivot resistance let alone the actual resistance, let alone to a bigger picture resistance, tells me the market is feeling the reality of the relative high prices for grain and are starting to exit their long grain positions.

 Everyone and everything can get carried away with the perception of what something is worth. Look at your statement and one thing that is certain is the settlement price. No matter what anyone thinks, THAT is the true price that something is valued at in that point in time. From there you are gambling from that price going forward, NOT where or when you entered your position.

I am looking at some sort of correction but it does not look like it will encourage bulls, and will lead to more erosion in price once the extreme technicals subside. I would think the "commodity fund bulls and speculators" will be more selective in what they will invest in and at what price does each commodity have "value", rather than the shotgun spray hitting most commodities.

Bottom Line: I want to sell with both hands if they could rally to a resistance level at any gap. I do not mind to sell at resistance for a day trade, just use a buy stop to protect. The max oversold condition makes it harder to sell at these near term support levels, but the market feels so heavy. I still feel we are going lower, maybe much lower, the question is can we get a strong bounce first so un-hedged farmers can sell?

Un-hedged producers should ask themselves if they sold at current prices will they have a very profitable year compared with their average earnings, and if so I would lock in those profits. Now you are truly "out of the market" and it does not matter if the farmer next door or speculators sell it for more anytime after. If they made more money they earned it and were risking money to do so. What matters is that you stopped being a gambler with the farm, and now you took the gamble out of the farm. No longer being a gambler, but a business man who took profits, and now frees to do what you do best, produce the most with what you have to work with. By not hedging your income it no longer depends on your production, but at what price you finally sell it at. Hedging a profit takes the gamble out of farm operations. How you hedge could make the difference in greatly improving returns, and it is my opinion that my service is second to none, and allows just you the protection needed, and still have the potential unlimited upside. Lastly, you can at any time adjust your position bullish or bearish, or get out of any part when you want to reflect your thoughts.

March Soybeans for 1/27/10

Numbers results for 1/26/10 were:

Grains: My resistance was $.04 from the actual high and my support was $.02 1/2 from the low in soybeans, and my resistance was $.00 1/2 from the actual high and my support was $.01 3/4 from the low in corn.

Crude Oil: My resistance was 0.13 from the actual high; my support was 0.19 from the actual low.

S&P:  My resistance was 6.75 from the actual high, my support was 0.50 (2 ticks) from the actual low.

Gold: My resistance was $0.80 from the actual high; my support was $3.30 from the actual low. 

Euro:  My resistance was 0.51 from the actual high; my support was 0.33 from the actual low.

Bonds: My resistance was 2 from the actual high; my support was 3 from the actual low. 

Natural Gas: My resistance was .021 from the actual high; my support was .046 from the actual low.   

Cattle: My resistance was .02 from the actual high, my support was .25 from the actual low.

Grains: Spot on corn and soybean numbers. In 3 weeks March soybeans broke $1.30 and have yet to produce a bounce of any significance. My call for grains to erode until maybe the first or second week of February still holds true.

Why I am such a bear and what will turn me? I have said this year the dollar would be strong, favorable US subsoil moisture and weather, investments in 2010 for inflation driven commodities is not starting out as planned, PRC trying to slow its economy, fund and farmer long positions, and comfortable stocks going forward. I will change my mind in a heartbeat if there is any adversity in production. Then I will use my knowledge and experience to try and take advantage of the price swings. I was never concerned with the 2009 planting noting they would get it in the ground. I pointed out then that it was an opportunity to sell at bracket levels, and would be a good trade idea because at that price the proof was on the bulls.

Bottom Line for Producers: You have a good idea of how much income you will earn if you sell your 2009 and or 2010 crops at the current price levels. Ask yourself, at what price higher will I actually sell my grain, and how much will I risk getting that? If you do not sell lower if wrong the same amount, you are in jeopardy of losing all your profits, and you had a known profit in hand. Ask yourself, how much will I earn if I sell here, and what am I risking if wrong, and why does the farm have to gamble on my idea of where the market may go? I say to you market your grain, and use some of the money to gamble long or short. If you do not sell your grain, your main job is not producing, but gambling, because it will not matter how well and efficient your can run your operation, your income will depend on when you finally sell your crop. How you sell it really matters and cash for futures is really a small basis to gain, compared with the opportunities using options.

I believe that until there is a major weather event somewhere with true loss of production, we will not see the highs seen in 2009 for quite some time, let alone 2008 highs. I published "food for thought" in 2007 calling for record grain prices in 2008, I called for accurate ranges for grains in 2009, and I call for the settlements from 1/11/10 before the report as being strong resistance, and the high for 2010 are already in. The question is the low. I laid out my support already and that should not change.

March Soybeans for 1/26/10

Grains: Spot on soybean and corn numbers. Extremely oversold for days. Soybeans took out last week's lows, and corn and wheat should do the same this week. Backdrop of bearish fundamentals I have outlined is catching up to the market and is getting a hold of them. I am still bearish and want to sell any rally near resistances.

 March Soybeans for 1/25/10

I talked recently about price and time, so everyone is aware that anything can and will happen in time. In my life I live for today and plan for the future, and for me in trading is always the today, and plan for the future. It does not matter what happens in the future, it is today that matters. The Cubs might one day win the World Series, but it will not matter to me if it is after I am dead. Same in trading, it does not matter if what you thought in the future does happen, if you are bankrupt first. This is what happens when what you thought does not happen at first, and you take losses that are either unsustainable, or the time it takes for it to happen does not make it worthwhile. Take gold in January 1980 when you bought it at $850 thinking that one day gold would go to $1200. It only took 29 years to do so, but you also had years in the 1990's when you could have bought it for under $300. Was it worth holding for 29 years and not even get your money back for 28 years? Was it worth the $350 profit when in actuality at one time you were losing over $550? 

98% of all the new members who threw in the towel within 6 months were doomed from the start because they had the wrong mindset. Of all the people who speculate on a position, no matter futures, stocks, opening a store, buying real estate, if they do not look at it as a business, they will either make a lot less if successful, or speed the closing. If they have a chance to exit that business and use that money for the next business idea but do not sell, they will be working for someone else when the business is forced to sell leaving no money.

98% of those who go down with the ship all say the same things "I thought this" and "I thought that", but they thought wrong. When you put all your money on one thought, you have one only chance to be right. No matter speculator, hedger, or end user, you must treat it as a business, and the risk side of the business or trade should be kept at a minimum.

You are always long or short from settlement each day, not where you got in. I am always looking at what my objective is going forward from each settlement and ask myself, what is my profit if I am right and the market gets to my objective, and what I am going to lose from here if wrong. If the answer is anything less than even money, I will exit the position. It does not matter if I am up $4000 on the trade, if I would take profits of $1000 from here but am risking $2000 to do so, I just get out. Why? Because I do not want to lose $2000 to make $1000. The wrong mindset is to think if you are up $4000 and if you lose $2000 you are still $2000 ahead. If I had $4000 in my hand and I lost $2000 to make $2000 is one thing, but to lose $2000 to make another $1000 is not a winning mindset.

Settlement is where you could have closed your position and the money would be waiting for your next investment, so what happens from there if not closed out is a new "wager", and the risk/reward should always be worth it. Lastly, keeping your trade losses to a minimum in relation to your account size allows you to not act emotionally, and protects you from one idea costing you a significant loss of income, or having to close your account (or business). 

A perfect example of the wrong mindset is a person who or is losing let's say $10,000 on a trade and spreads it off to the next month, they think and say that since the trade is not closed out, it is not a loss yet. Look at your net liquidation account value that shows you are losing $10,000, that is the proof that no matter when you get in or out, at settlement, the loss is there even though the position is still open on the book. Now if the first trade makes back $5000, it is still losing $5000, but the spread trade side is now losing $5000, still a total of $10,000. Reality to the bottom line is by spreading it off it is like getting out, except your account executive has another commission. Now you have a spread, some could move, some not, but you are no longer outright long or short, you are spread. It became a spread trade.

Another example is the person who does a "special offset" to show a profit, and will "work their way out" of the losers. This is self denial; the bottom line on your account value will remain exactly the same no matter what trade is offset. If you are either of these examples, please do not open an account at my firm, because you are wasting my time and your money, you will be like the many traders who are smart, but do not have the right mindset and will not be around for long.

Grains: Spot on corn numbers, also spot on soybean resistance and accurate support. Exports were strong once again to help support, and oversold conditions, but did little to help improve prices. Corn is holding the bracket line support, beans trying to hold the panic selling low.

Nothing has changed since last week. So I will wrap up my thoughts on the grain market. My numbers are "for today" and my charts are my roadmaps for the "future". Last week I discussed how the market has had wide quick swings and the parameters were laid out. The market will rally and challenge their all time highs if we have a Noah's Ark type of raining for 40 days and 40 nights when we are planting, hot dry weather during pollination, and an early freeze. Any one of those things will cause a rally that is significant. Nobody can predict what will occur. You can take a "bet" on it happening, and with some option knowledge it is easy to read the "odds board" and place the wager that suits your risk appetite. If it happens you will cash in, if not with the right strategy you will have a known risk if wrong and it should not affect your account value past the limit set. Un-hedged producers are long and should not "bet the farm" on that occurring, but rather a small bet that if wrong does not change their profit margin by too much. That is their "gamble" to the upside, and my service makes it clear on what it is costing for whatever upside they are looking for.  

On the other hand, Argentina is expecting a record soybean crop and a huge corn crop, Brazil is almost finished planting and is having good growing conditions. The dollar is getting the legs to make a run higher, and the funds still have huge long positions. Farmers are still holding huge long positions by NOT being hedged. Subsoil moisture is best I have seen going into a growing season here. Instead of bad weather causing a rally, the weather could cooperate and we could produce a bumper crop. The equity market could turn south, and the global picture could struggle, and that is not good for grains. If livestock producers have a hard time to rally prices, or feed does not get cheaper, they will reduce their inventory and less feed will be used. If crude oil comes tumbling down, or just gasoline, ethanol usage will be hurt. Lastly, and this is a big one, what if the funds decide to abandon their positions and even worse turn to sell grains?

Place your bets, use the roadmap for a good location, and we will see what happens. For me, I will trade day by day, for now I want to sell rallies at good locations with a reasonable small risk if wrong, and a good profit if right. I want to stand aside with no positions at times, and the only way a producer can do that is by hedging his crop. Only then can a speculator or producer wait for an opportunity to play from either side of the market. When you are out of a position it does not matter what happens in the market, because there is no risk or reward. There was nothing you wanted to do and that is why you had no position, and if you say I coulda, woulda, or shouda done something, that means you are not doing what you were supposed to do, or another way of saying it is that you cannot execute your strategy and game plans.

March Soybeans for 1/22/10

Grains: Accurate numbers for corn and helpful soybeans. I expected an up day but I would be disappointed if I was a bull. When you consider how much these markets have just went down and the corrective action so far, Friday better produce some follow through for bulls who are trying to hold onto a position that looks more like a wager on adversity in 2010 production, than the reality of current supply/demand fundamentals.

The options have increased "premium" as seen on Wednesday when December $4 calls settled up 2 1/2 cents, and the $4 puts settled up 3 3/4 cents, on a day the market settled at $4.02 3/4 down 1 1/4 cents on the day. This increase in cost for the same right to be long or short corn at $4 usually occurs on a market that is rallying, but in this case I think it is because the market is just as worried about the downside.

I want to make it clear, I am bearish grains and believe we could easily trade $8 soybeans and $3.25 corn if I am right in the long run, versus $9.94 or $10.60 soybeans and $4.26 corn if I am totally wrong.

To be more specific, March soybeans (SH) in the near term, the chart shows good support at $8.90 (the low on 10/5/09) just 3 months ago. In December 2008 front month soybeans posted a low of $7.77 (777 but no jackpot). Let me remind you, we traded $5.40 1/2 in 10/2006.

March corn has strong support at the gap at $3.54 1/4, then the lows in 9/2009 holding $3.20. Corn has had huge support since the low in 12/2008 when it posted lows of $2.90, as well as a $3 low in 2009. Corn was at $2.61 3/4 low in 10/2006. In December 2005 it posted a low of $1.86.

Time will tell what will be, as with everything in life, things can turn around on a heartbeat. As long as I see the whole picture the way I do, I will continue to have a bearish bias. When an event or price level is reached that changes my bias, I will change. I am not married to an opinion, I am married to my beautiful wife who is forever. Certainly after being a floor trader for handfuls of years, I cannot count the number of times I have been a bull or bear in the grain markets, for a day, week, month, or months.

I needed to write this because I want my producers and speculators to know the downside is alive and well. I want you to not be herded into the "does what the funds are doing" mentality. Yes, that is great when I am on their side, but I have no problem "fading" them with caution, realizing that  if they abandon their longs it should also trigger fund selling, and then we will see my objective of $7.75 SX and $3.37 CZ

Corn should be coming into the pipeline that would not be if storability was not an issue. PRC slowing their economy, 2010 record US yields, Palmer index (drought index) shows plenty of subsoil moisture for 2010, and farmers tend to plant more with their profits, while Wall St. spends their bonus. Speaking of which, if Obama declared war on Wall St. this issue of separating banks from their trading groups, could lead to commodity liquidation by them.

Bottom Line: Hedgers should find places to finish off marketing their 2010 crops and leave the gamble to others. Profits should be locked in, and try to pick up an extra $.10 to $.25 when possible. Try and take as much risk off the table, and gamble when you really think the market is going up, but not the farm, but with a trading account limited to 5% of last year's income. If in 2 or 3 years your trading account grows, then you can think about gambling professionally, until then, do not try to do that with your farm. Keep gambling and marketing your farm separate. 

I want you to ask yourself, not me, at what price will I sell if they go higher, and what will I do if they go down? If you do not have a solid answer, then you are a deer on the highway and the Mack truck has you in its headlights! Do not risk more (gamble) then you are willing to make if right. Remember, YOU ARE LONG UNTIL YOU HEDGE. When you sell you are not going short, you are getting out of the market and have NO position.

March Soybeans for 1/21/10

Grains: Spot on corn and accurate soybean numbers. Extremely oversold for days has yet to produce a rejection of these price levels. Bracket line support was perfect in corn and we will see if it can hold and provide a corrective rally to retest the gap at $3.81 which I would consider an excellent selling opportunity. Soybeans have support at $9.35 and I thought this area might hold for a corrective rally towards resistance and alleviate the extremely overbought condition, then a retest of support. Buy corn sell beans and wheat is working. If the dollar stays strong though, I still think soybeans will erode for another 2 weeks.

Interesting to note the British Meteorological Office is now forecasting that 2010 will prove to be the warmest year on record, succeeding 1998 and putting the temperature series back on its clear upward trend, aligned with the steady increase of human-caused CO2.

March Soybeans for 1/20/10

Grains: Accurate corn numbers and helpful soybean. I want to sell a rally at $9.94 area in SH March soybeans, $3.80 CH March corn. I might be dreaming though. Grains are having trouble to rally in extremely oversold conditions. Maximum oversold conditions in soybeans could last another day or two, but should see a corrective bounce. It is hard to sell under these conditions, but it is even harder to buy. Being under the bracket line (green) makes it a little easier though (to sell). My parameters for shorting (selling) grain have been clearly stated, and any rally is an opportunity to sell.

  You know I like buying corn selling wheat, but I am more in favor of buying December 2010 corn and selling November 2010 soybeans. Long time subscribers know when the ratios is near 3 to 1 beans over corn that beans are expensive relative to corn, 1.8 to 1 is really cheap soybeans in relation to corn. We are about 2.3 to 1 now and I am looking for a ratio of 2 to 1 (price of soybeans versus corn).

I think that we are at about 1/3 of carry charge in soybeans, but with S.A. bringing soybeans online in April there will be plenty of soybeans around and a carry charge will come back in play. Producers would be more inclined to store if they were near carry, but that is the function of the tight carry as to induce farmer selling. I think the old/new crop (SN/SX) can be bullish though.

We are going to have the largest soybean harvest in history (in S. America) the way the weather looks the next 2 weeks. End users should be backing off not worried as much about tight supplies that have been seen for over a year. I want to remind you again at the progress in yields which looks like it is outpacing the ethanol mandates. Was it the cool wet weather, the gigantic farm equipment that is fast and minimizes loss, or the seed companies who think their triple stack corn is the reason? Pro Farmer says that US corn yields are advancing 2.5 bushels per acre a year which equates to let's say 90 million acres X 2.5 or 225 million more bushels for 2010. 

I am bearish and want to be a seller on rallies, long term core position I would remain short with a buy stop close only above $9.94 in March Soybeans, and $3.82 buy stop close only to make me want to exit (corn). I have no problem selling at these levels, but I would rather wait for less oversold conditions.

With all that said, I am aware that Reuters ran a story which included: Burnt by the financial crisis of the last two years, money managers are now raising sharply the amount of money allocated to raw materials such as oil, gold, copper, sugar and coffee. The value of commodity funds looks set to grow by a third this year, or by as much as $100 billion. Barclays Capital figures show commodity investments in passive, long-only commodities funds increased by $93 billion last year to $255 billion with $67 billion in fresh inflows hitting the market. Fund managers estimate that inflows this year will match or even exceed 2009. It went on and on, but what caught my eye was: Hilary Till, principal at Chicago-based proprietary trading firm Premia Capital, says this has led to huge demand for some commodities as hedges against potential dollar depreciation.

If I am right and the dollar is strong this year, would the funds abandon their positions? Trend funds have no problem selling.

Bottom line: When trading I like to trade the side of the fundamentals and that is bearish grains. I also know that the funds are the drivers as long as they have their foot on the pedal, but in the end many have actually crashed and burned. The charts are bearish, and I think we will remain under pressure for the next few weeks, and then we could see corrective action as row crops compete for acreage. At this time the upside is cheap for grain options as at this time it should be, but ANY hint of a problem even via weather forecast will cause the shorts to scramble, and funds will be the steamroller if they can maintain soybeans at these levels. If they do get hammered (go down $.50 or $1) their ability to add to such a losing position should be limited.

My battle plan before stepping into the ring is play it from the short side and look to hit more times than I get hit.

Producers who still have this and or next year's crop to hedge leaves them in a "long" position no different than the speculator who bought, you are both long. In my service no matter what market I have always been insistent on not risking more if your thinking is wrong, than what you would make if right. For both of you as the market goes down must ask yourself, what am I thinking? You will always be faced with more loss if it goes down, and recoup money if it goes up. The problem is, if for whatever reason the market would continue down the result would be the same, you will lose your account, or everything you own. And what would you have sold it for if it went how much higher? You will never win on a professional poker table. There is no difference in gambling, money management is just one key to successful trading or marketing grain. You might get lucky in the short run year or two, but in time you will wind up with the short end of the wishbone.

March Soybeans for 1/19/10

All numbers and charts have been updated for 1/19/10, my comments will be sent in less than 3 hours from now, and here are some comments.

Make note that the charts are showing the exact same range of the Monday session, so disregard the "shadow bar" (last bar on the right), but the previous bar is correct for Monday's session.

Grains: Tuesday night update:  Tonight's volume is extremely light and I would not make too much of it. Only 2123 contracts of March soybeans and 3923 in March corn as 7:10 just before I sent this.

As you can see the soybean and corn market held their pivot and looks firm tonight. Markets are extremely oversold and a corrective bounce was in order. How much we correct can be helped by outside help if a weaker dollar, and higher commodities, but I think it really depends internally on farmer selling and willingness for the shorts to cover and take profits, at least for now. We did not trade on Monday and of course I feel the same tonight without an "event" in sight to change my numbers or opinion. I continue to call for selling at my resistances, and I would not press the short here in extremely oversold conditions and near short term supports that I feel in time will be taken out.

Nothing changed. Charts are clearly near support bracket lines, and I would like to sell a rally. I do not see a run to buy grains on this light volume. Looks more like people who do not mind paying up to cover shorts rather than a surge in new buying. The funds were adding to their positions last week with the commitment of traders report showing: The index trader's net long across the 12 reported commodities increased 56,500 contracts during the latest week. Changes during the two previous weeks were down 2,360 and up 10,970, respectively.

Brazil's soybean crop is coming up beautiful and set to produce excellent yields.

March Soybeans for 1/18/10

On Thursday 1/15/10 my numbers were:

Grains: My resistance was $.05 from the actual high and my support was $.03 1/2 from the low in soybeans, and my resistance was $.03 from the actual high and my support was $.01 1/2 from the low in corn.

Crude Oil: My resistance was 0.21 from the actual high; my support was 0.06 from the actual low.

S&P: My resistance was 0.75 from the actual high, my support was 0.50 (2 ticks) from the actual low.

Gold: My resistance was $5.30 from the actual high; my support was $4.20 from the actual low. 

Euro:  My resistance was 0.18 from the actual high; my support was 0.37 from the actual low.

Bonds: My resistance was 21 from the actual high; my support was 1 from the actual low.  

 Natural Gas: My resistance was .009 from the actual high; my support was .036 from the actual low.  

 Cattle: My resistance was .20 from the actual high, my support was .40 from the actual low. 

Grains: You have known for months I have said that producers should hedge 100% of their crop, and speculators should play it from the short side. I have not wavered from my view, and told my producers to sell more of the upside when they were rallying to $10.60 in soybeans (collecting $.25 now for a $1 spread above the market in the future), and near $4.20 in corn. I was fully aware of the power of the funds and thought the opportunity to sell at these levels were handed to producers and speculators alike as a gift, to sell at levels that would not have been seen without them. I also have told you how to play each trade using a stop, so you would lose small when wrong, and very profitable because of the location when right. I have told you about bracket line supports that produced rallies back to resistance bracket lines. I have told you that no matter if long or short, if you held for a few months you would have seen big profits and big losses come and go, and you are right back to where you started from. That is good for a producer because he is not in the market when hedged, but for a speculator the buy and hold or sell and hold never made sense to me. The buy or sell and then take profits or losses, and then look for the next trade, not continue or compare to the last trade.

Others would try to "pin the tail on the outside markets" such as weaker crude, stocks, and the dollar which is helpful, but I believe the fundamentals from the report justifies the plunge from lofty levels. Wheat down $.58, corn $.51, and beans $.48. All 3 closed within a hand full of cents from their lows after the report, are extremely oversold, but I still believe we will take out those lows and test my support numbers for Tuesday (no trading Monday) sometime this week, and second supports in the next 3 weeks.

Bottom Line: I want to continue to sell rallies near $9.94 in SH and $3.81 in CH, Looking for a test of my support numbers. Extremely oversold now but I think the longs that are underwater will look to abandon the long side soon. Producers have a wakeup call and when they look on the chart and see where they were a few months ago, they will be selling too. I also remember that 1000's of funds went broke in 2008, and just because they have money and can force the market their way in the short run, does not make them right in their perception and trade idea. What do you think corn would be priced at if it were not for the funds allocating money to this "asset class"? 

Want to know what I think for tomorrow? 

The 9 markets now covered daily are March soybeans, March corn, February crude oil, March S&P, March Euro FX, March 30 yr TBond, February gold, and February natural Gas and February cattle

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Lebanon, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $ 199.00

HowardTyllas A Weekly Newsletter $479.00 Yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

  

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

March Soybeans Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 1/25/10

Jan 25, 2010



This report was sent to subscribers on 1/23/10 8:00 a.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 1/25/10. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

March Soybeans

After the close on 1/25/10: My resistance was 19.57 3/4, just .01 3/4 from the actual high, and my pivot acted as support and was 9.35, only .01 from the actual low.

Ask yourself, how well would I have traded this market if I had these numbers last night? Subscribe now! See for yourself why this second year of service has tripled my subscriber base.

Are you still using a service that comes out in the morning and gives you numbers reflecting what has already traded, and worse than that uses 4 or more support, and 4 or more resistance numbers?

  We cannot post every market, if you are interested sign up for free & get "how I use my numbers".

Sign up For Free 1 Day Trail of Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas

Sign Up for the Free Live one on one Farmer Hedging Program Webinar By: Howard Tyllas

9.88                             Resistance

9.74 3/4

 

-------------9.57 3/4      Pivot

9.40 3/4 

9.35 

      Use the same numbers as used on 1/22/10

 
 
 
 

Trend                  

5 day chart.…...     Down (from last week same day)                                                

Daily chart   …….…Sideways                

Weekly chart …….. Sideways        

Monthly chart …..   Sideways $9.88 is the 200 DMA

 ATR 21 1/2               Oversold 11%





Bracket line is first resistance, downtrend line is key resistance. Last week's low is first support, bears eye Octobers low.  

In my daily numbers on Friday my pivot acted as resistance and was .00 3/4 from the actual high; my support was .04 3/4 from the actual low.   

In charting, when a resistance is hurdled it becomes support, and when the support is broken it becomes resistance.

Patience to wait for good locations to enter a trade will reward you by providing minimum loss if wrong, and more profit if right. You might miss trades (some glad you did) and not be as active, but this type of trading makes you a casino, not a player. These locations are also valuable to the day trader that can use (in this case) the red bracket line (or the high of $10.61 1/2 or $10.84) to be a seller and have a stronger resistance backing you, hence easier to sell than when in the middle of bracket support and resistance lines.  

March Soybeans for 1/25/10

More chart comments:

98% of all the new members who threw in the towel within 6 months were doomed from the start because they had the wrong mindset. Of all the people who speculate on a position, no matter futures, stocks, opening a store, buying real estate, if they do not look at it as a business, they will either make a lot less if successful, or speed the closing. If they have a chance to exit that business and use that money for the next business idea but do not sell, they will be working for someone else when the business is forced to sell leaving no money.

98% of those who go down with the ship all say the same things "I thought this" and "I thought that", but they thought wrong. When you put all your money on one thought, you have one only chance to be right. No matter speculator, hedger, or end user, you must treat it as a business, and the risk side of the business or trade should be kept at a minimum.

Grains: Spot on corn numbers, also spot on soybean resistance and accurate support. Exports were strong once again to help support, and oversold conditions, but did little to help improve prices. Corn is holding the bracket line support, beans trying to hold the panic selling low.

Nothing has changed since last week. So I will wrap up my thoughts on the grain market. My numbers are "for today" and my charts are my roadmaps for the "future". Last week I discussed how the market has had wide quick swings and the parameters were laid out.

Bulls: The market will rally and challenge their all time highs if we have a Noah's Ark type of raining for 40 days and 40 nights when we are planting, hot dry weather during pollination, and an early freeze. Any one of those things will cause a rally that is significant. Nobody can predict what will occur. You can take a "bet" on it happening, and with some option knowledge it is easy to read the "odds board" and place the wager that suits your risk appetite. If it happens you will cash in, if not with the right strategy you will have a known risk if wrong and it should not affect your account value past the limit set. Un-hedged producers are long and should not "bet the farm" on that occurring, but rather a small bet that if wrong does not change their profit margin by too much. That is their "gamble" to the upside, and my service makes it clear on what it is costing for whatever upside they are looking for.   

Bears: On the other hand, Argentina is expecting a record soybean crop and a huge corn crop, Brazil is almost finished planting and is having good growing conditions. The dollar is getting the legs to make a run higher, and the funds still have huge long positions. Farmers are still holding huge long positions by NOT being hedged. Subsoil moisture is best I have seen going into a growing season here. Instead of bad weather causing a rally, the weather could cooperate and we could produce a bumper crop. The equity market could turn south, and the global picture could struggle, and that is not good for grains. If livestock producers have a hard time to rally prices, or feed does not get cheaper, they will reduce their inventory and less feed will be used. If crude oil comes tumbling down, or just gasoline, ethanol usage will be hurt. Lastly, and this is a big one, what if the funds decide to abandon their positions and even worse turn to sell grains?

Place your bets, use the roadmap for a good location, and we will see what happens. For me, I will trade day by day, for now I want to sell rallies at good locations with a reasonable small risk if wrong, and a good profit if right. I want to stand aside with no positions at times, and the only way a producer can do that is by hedging his crop. Only then can a speculator or producer wait for an opportunity to play from either side of the market. When you are out of a position it does not matter what happens in the market, because there is no risk or reward. There was nothing you wanted to do and that is why you had no position, and if you say I coulda, woulda, or shouda done something, that means you are not doing what you were supposed to do, or another way of saying it is that you cannot execute your strategy and game plans.

Commentary for 1/22/10

Grains: Accurate numbers for corn and helpful soybeans. I expected an up day but I would be disappointed if I was a bull. When you consider how much these markets have just went down and the corrective action so far, Friday better produce some follow through for bulls who are trying to hold onto a position that looks more like a wager on adversity in 2010 production, than the reality of current supply/demand fundamentals.

The options have increased "premium" as seen on Wednesday when December $4 calls settled up 2 1/2 cents, and the $4 puts settled up 3 3/4 cents, on a day the market settled at $4.02 3/4 down 1 1/4 cents on the day. This increase in cost for the same right to be long or short corn at $4 usually occurs on a market that is rallying, but in this case I think it is because the market is just as worried about the downside.

I want to make it clear, I am bearish grains and believe we could easily trade $8 soybeans and $3.25 corn if I am right in the long run, versus $9.94 or $10.60 soybeans and $4.26 corn if I am totally wrong.

To be more specific, March soybeans (SH) in the near term, the chart shows good support at $8.90 (the low on 10/5/09) just 3 months ago. In December 2008 front month soybeans posted a low of $7.77 (777 but no jackpot). Let me remind you, we traded $5.40 1/2 in 10/2006.

March corn has strong support at the gap at $3.54 1/4, then the lows in 9/2009 holding $3.20. Corn has had huge support since the low in 12/2008 when it posted lows of $2.90, as well as a $3 low in 2009. Corn was at $2.61 3/4 low in 10/2006. In December 2005 it posted a low of $1.86.

What I am thinking down the road is $3.37 December 2010 corn and $7.75 November 2010 soybeans, I think can happen if S. America produces what I think it will produce. 

Time will tell what will be, as with everything in life, things can turn around on a heartbeat. As long as I see the whole picture the way I do, I will continue to have a bearish bias. When an event or price level is reached that changes my bias, I will change. I am not married to an opinion, I am married to my beautiful wife who is forever. Certainly after being a floor trader for handfuls of years, I cannot count the number of times I have been a bull or bear in the grain markets, for a day, week, month, or months.

I needed to write this because I want my producers and speculators to know the downside is alive and well. I want you to not be herded into the "does what the funds are doing" mentality. Yes, that is great when I am on their side, but I have no problem "fading" them with caution, realizing that  if they abandon their longs it should also trigger fund selling, and then we will see my objective of $7.75 SX and $3.37 CZ

Corn should be coming into the pipeline that would not be if storability was not an issue. PRC slowing their economy, 2010 record US yields, Palmer index (drought index) shows plenty of subsoil moisture for 2010, and farmers tend to plant more with their profits, while Wall St. spends their bonus. Speaking of which, if Obama declared war on Wall St. this issue of separating banks from their trading groups, could lead to commodity liquidation by them.

Bottom Line: Hedgers should find places to finish off marketing their 2010 crops and leave the gamble to others. Profits should be locked in, and try to pick up an extra $.10 to $.25 when possible. Try and take as much risk off the table, and gamble when you really think the market is going up, but not the farm, but with a trading account limited to 5% of last year's income. If in 2 or 3 years your trading account grows, then you can think about gambling professionally, until then, do not try to do that with your farm. Keep gambling and marketing your farm separate.  

I want you to ask yourself, not me, at what price will I sell if they go higher, and what will I do if they go down? If you do not have a solid answer, then you are a deer on the highway and the Mack truck has you in its headlights! Do not risk more (gamble) then you are willing to make if right. Remember, YOU ARE LONG UNTIL YOU HEDGE. When you sell you are not going short, you are getting out of the market and have NO position.

Commentary for 1/21/10

Grains: Spot on corn and accurate soybean numbers. Extremely oversold for days has yet to produce a rejection of these price levels. Bracket line support was perfect in corn and we will see if it can hold and provide a corrective rally to retest the gap at $3.81 which I would consider an excellent selling opportunity. Soybeans have support at $9.35 and I thought this area might hold for a corrective rally towards resistance and alleviate the extremely overbought condition, then a retest of support. Buy corn sell beans and wheat is working. If the dollar stays strong though, I still think soybeans will erode for another 2 weeks.

 Interesting to note the British Meteorological Office is now forecasting that 2010 will prove to be the warmest year on record, succeeding 1998 and putting the temperature series back on its clear upward trend, aligned with the steady increase of human-caused CO2.

Commentary for 1/20/10

Grains: Accurate corn numbers and helpful soybean. I want to sell a rally at $9.94 area in SH March soybeans, $3.80 CH March corn. I might be dreaming though. Grains are having trouble to rally in extremely oversold conditions. Maximum oversold conditions in soybeans could last another day or two, but should see a corrective bounce. It is hard to sell under these conditions, but it is even harder to buy. Being under the bracket line (green) makes it a little easier though (to sell). My parameters for shorting (selling) grain have been clearly stated, and any rally is an opportunity to sell.

 You know I like buying corn selling wheat, but I am more in favor of buying December 2010 corn and selling November 2010 soybeans. Long time subscribers know when the ratios is near 3 to 1 beans over corn that beans are expensive relative to corn, 1.8 to 1 is really cheap soybeans in relation to corn. We are about 2.3 to 1 now and I am looking for a ratio of 2 to 1 (price of soybeans versus corn).

I think that we are at about 1/3 of carry charge in soybeans, but with S.A. bringing soybeans online in April there will be plenty of soybeans around and a carry charge will come back in play. Producers would be more inclined to store if they were near carry, but that is the function of the tight carry as to induce farmer selling. I think the old/new crop (SN/SX) can be bullish though.

We are going to have the largest soybean harvest in history (in S. America) the way the weather looks the next 2 weeks. End users should be backing off not worried as much about tight supplies that have been seen for over a year. I want to remind you again at the progress in yields which looks like it is outpacing the ethanol mandates. Was it the cool wet weather, the gigantic farm equipment that is fast and minimizes loss, or the seed companies who think their triple stack corn is the reason? Pro Farmer says that US corn yields are advancing 2.5 bushels per acre a year which equates to let's say 90 million acres X 2.5 or 225 million more bushels for 2010. 

I am bearish and want to be a seller on rallies, long term core position I would remain short with a buy stop close only above $9.94 in March Soybeans, and $3.82 buy stop close only to make me want to exit (corn). I have no problem selling at these levels, but I would rather wait for less oversold conditions.

With all that said, I am aware that Reuters ran a story which included: Burnt by the financial crisis of the last two years, money managers are now raising sharply the amount of money allocated to raw materials such as oil, gold, copper, sugar and coffee. The value of commodity funds looks set to grow by a third this year, or by as much as $100 billion. Barclays Capital figures show commodity investments in passive, long-only commodities funds increased by $93 billion last year to $255 billion with $67 billion in fresh inflows hitting the market. Fund managers estimate that inflows this year will match or even exceed 2009. It went on and on, but what caught my eye was: Hilary Till, principal at Chicago-based proprietary trading firm Premia Capital, says this has led to huge demand for some commodities as hedges against potential dollar depreciation.

If I am right and the dollar is strong this year, would the funds abandon their positions? Trend funds have no problem selling.

Bottom line: When trading I like to trade the side of the fundamentals and that is bearish grains. I also know that the funds are the drivers as long as they have their foot on the pedal, but in the end many have actually crashed and burned. The charts are bearish, and I think we will remain under pressure for the next few weeks, and then we could see corrective action as row crops compete for acreage. At this time the upside is cheap for grain options as at this time it should be, but ANY hint of a problem even via weather forecast will cause the shorts to scramble, and funds will be the steamroller if they can maintain soybeans at these levels. If they do get hammered (go down $.50 or $1) their ability to add to such a losing position should be limited.

My battle plan before stepping into the ring is play it from the short side and look to hit more times than I get hit.

Producers who still have this and or next year's crop to hedge leaves them in a "long" position no different than the speculator who bought, you are both long. In my service no matter what market I have always been insistent on not risking more if your thinking is wrong, than what you would make if right. For both of you as the market goes down must ask yourself, what am I thinking? You will always be faced with more loss if it goes down, and recoup money if it goes up. The problem is, if for whatever reason the market would continue down the result would be the same, you will lose your account, or everything you own. And what would you have sold it for if it went how much higher? You will never win on a professional poker table. There is no difference in gambling, money management is just one key to successful trading or marketing grain. You might get lucky in the short run year or two, but in time you will wind up with the short end of the wishbone.

 Commentary for 1/19/10

Make note that the charts are showing the exact same range of the Monday session, so disregard the "shadow bar" (last bar on the right), but the previous bar is correct for Monday's session.

Grains: Tuesday night update:  Tonight's volume is extremely light and I would not make too much of it. Only 2123 contracts of March soybeans and 3923 in March corn as 7:10 just before I sent this.

As you can see the soybean and corn market held their pivot and looks firm tonight. Markets are extremely oversold and a corrective bounce was in order. How much we correct can be helped by outside help if a weaker dollar, and higher commodities, but I think it really depends internally on farmer selling and willingness for the shorts to cover and take profits, at least for now. We did not trade on Monday and of course I feel the same tonight without an "event" in sight to change my numbers or opinion. I continue to call for selling at my resistances, and I would not press the short here in extremely oversold conditions and near short term supports that I feel in time will be taken out.

Nothing changed. Charts are clearly near support bracket lines, and I would like to sell a rally. I do not see a run to buy grains on this light volume. Looks more like people who do not mind paying up to cover shorts rather than a surge in new buying. The funds were adding to their positions last week with the commitment of traders report showing: The index trader's net long across the 12 reported commodities increased 56,500 contracts during the latest week. Changes during the two previous weeks were down 2,360 and up 10,970, respectively.

Brazil's soybean crop is coming up beautiful and set to produce excellent yields.

Commentary for 1/18/10

On Thursday 1/15/10 my numbers were:

Grains: My resistance was $.05 from the actual high and my support was $.03 1/2 from the low in soybeans, and my resistance was $.03 from the actual high and my support was $.01 1/2 from the low in corn.

Crude Oil: My resistance was 0.21 from the actual high; my support was 0.06 from the actual low.

S&P: My resistance was 0.75 from the actual high, my support was 0.50 (2 ticks) from the actual low.

Gold: My resistance was $5.30 from the actual high; my support was $4.20 from the actual low. 

Euro:  My resistance was 0.18 from the actual high; my support was 0.37 from the actual low.

Bonds: My resistance was 21 from the actual high; my support was 1 from the actual low. 

Natural Gas: My resistance was .009 from the actual high; my support was .036 from the actual low. 

Cattle: My resistance was .20 from the actual high, my support was .40 from the actual low. 

Grains: You have known for months I have said that producers should hedge 100% of their crop, and speculators should play it from the short side. I have not wavered from my view, and told my producers to sell more of the upside when they were rallying to $10.60 in soybeans (collecting $.25 now for a $1 spread above the market in the future), and near $4.20 in corn. I was fully aware of the power of the funds and thought the opportunity to sell at these levels were handed to producers and speculators alike as a gift, to sell at levels that would not have been seen without them. I also have told you how to play each trade using a stop, so you would lose small when wrong, and very profitable because of the location when right. I have told you about bracket line supports that produced rallies back to resistance bracket lines. I have told you that no matter if long or short, if you held for a few months you would have seen big profits and big losses come and go, and you are right back to where you started from. That is good for a producer because he is not in the market when hedged, but for a speculator the buy and hold or sell and hold never made sense to me. The buy or sell and then take profits or losses, and then look for the next trade, not continue or compare to the last trade.

Others would try to "pin the tail on the outside markets" such as weaker crude, stocks, and the dollar which is helpful, but I believe the fundamentals from the report justifies the plunge from lofty levels. Wheat down $.58, corn $.51, and beans $.48. All 3 closed within a hand full of cents from their lows after the report, are extremely oversold, but I still believe we will take out those lows and test my support numbers for Tuesday (no trading Monday) sometime this week, and second supports in the next 3 weeks.

Bottom Line: I want to continue to sell rallies near $9.94 in SH and $3.81 in CH, Looking for a test of my support numbers. Extremely oversold now but I think the longs that are underwater will look to abandon the long side soon. Producers have a wakeup call and when they look on the chart and see where they were a few months ago, they will be selling too. I also remember that 1000's of funds went broke in 2008, and just because they have money and can force the market their way in the short run, does not make them right in their perception and trade idea. What do you think corn would be priced at if it were not for the funds allocating money to this "asset class"? 

Commentary for 1/15/10

On Thursday 1/14/10 my numbers were:

Grains: Exact high and $.03 3/4 from the low in soybeans, and had the exact high and was

$.03 1/2 from the low in corn.

Crude Oil: My numbers were $0.08 from the high and $0.55 from the low.

S&P: My resistance was 1.00 from the actual high, my support was 0.75 (3 ticks) from the actual low.

Gold: My resistance was $7.20 from the actual high; my support was $4.10 from the actual low. 

Euro:  My resistance was 0.22 from the actual high; my support was 0.34 from the actual low.

Bonds: My resistance was 1 from the actual high; my support was the EXACT actual low. 

Natural Gas: My resistance was .049 from the actual high; my support was .048 from the actual low. 

Cattle: My resistance was the EXACT actual high, my pivot acted as support and was .15 from the actual low.   

Grains: Same thoughts as before.

We are still trading corn about $.60 above September 2009 lows when that USDA report showed production would be 156 million bushels less than what they just reported on Tuesday's Final. This tells me it would not be unreasonable to retest that support. As corn is starting to become more profitable than soybeans, it should attract more acreage away from soybeans and will be amply supplied going forward if 2010 trend yields are obtained. The 281.6 million acres of feed grains, oilseeds, cotton, and CRP was 6.6 million acres below the record planted acreage in 2008. Knowing there is more acreage that could be planted in 2010 add to my bearish bias.  

 More fund buying on Friday should complete the rebalancing they have been reporting. Who or what will support the market going forward is unknown to me, farmers have to market cash grain or hedge here and now in S. America, and end users will be more comfortable to wait for lower prices as the market has difficulty mounting a rally. I believe grains will take out this week's low, and then erode until real support shows where the real buyers (end users) are willing to buy their needs.

Producers: As I have been saying for weeks, at these levels you should be locking in prices at these levels, and not have to worry what the market will do from here. Unless you have a conviction that prices will go higher, than what would be the reason for not hedging? If you do not, you are long no different than a speculator. There is a difference though, when you do it you are betting the farm (or any part that is not hedged) and when they do it, they are only taking a portion of their income and gamble with that. In order for you to say that, you would only have maybe 10% at risk, and only if that would not change your lifestyles needs. I still recommend to sell some unsold upside on any rally and put more money in your pocket now. Remember you can always buy back the upside, and time works on my side using my strategy.

 Want to know what I think for tomorrow? 

The 9 markets now covered daily are March soybeans, March corn, February crude oil, March S&P, March Euro FX, March 30 yr TBond, February gold, and February natural Gas and February cattle

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

  

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

February Cattle Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 1/22/10

Jan 22, 2010



This report was sent to subscribers on 1/21/10 6:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 1/22/10. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

February Cattle  

After the close on 1/22/10: My resistance was 87.45 FG, .20 from the actual high, and my support was 86.57, .17 from the actual low.

Ask yourself, how well would I have traded this market if I had these numbers last night? Subscribe now! See for yourself why the second year of service had quadrupled my subscriber base.

  We cannot post every market, if you are interested sign up for free & get "how I use my numbers".

Sign up For Free 1 Day Trail of Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas

Sign Up for the Free Live one on one Farmer Hedging Program Webinar By: Howard Tyllas

87.95              

87.45 FG              

--------------86.57     Pivot

85.70 FG

 

 

          

Trend                       87.97 is the 200 day MA

5 day chart....…      Sideways (last week same day)                                                          

Daily chart   ……   Sideways           

Weekly chart ……. Sideways  

Monthly chart …... Sideways 

ATR .92                   Balanced 63%  





February Cattle (elec.) for 1/22/10: 

"Double top" at the 88.00 level is a wall the bulls ran into. They are still in control but more corrective action might be needed to gain energy to attempt to hurdle 88.00. Uptrend line supports, as well as the gap at 85.70.

 Notice how I use the open outcry chart to locate gaps, but I do my numbers for the electronic market as always. Open outcry is where I find the major players doing business. 

  In my daily numbers on Thursday; my pivot acted as resistance and was .10 from the actual high, my support was .20 from the actual low.   

Cattle: Spot on numbers. Now we are sitting between the bracket line resistance (red) and the uptrend line (green) near the gap. No bias at this price and time.

February Cattle (elec.) for 1/22/10: 

Cattle: Helpful numbers. Bullish chart but near resistances. I like my trade idea from yesterday.

 Want to know what I think for tomorrow? 

The 9 markets now covered daily are March soybeans, March corn, February crude oil, March S&P, March Euro FX, March 30 yr TBond, February gold, and February natural Gas and February cattle

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

  

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

THERE IS A BETTER WAY TO HEDGE GRAIN & CATTLE, LEARN HOW

Jan 22, 2010

               


THERE IS A BETTER WAY TO HEDGE GRAIN & CATTLE, LEARN HOW

This week ending 1/22/10 I have been buying December Corn $4 puts for around $.10, find out how.


Sign up For Free 1 Day Trail of Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas

Sign Up for the Free Farmer Hedging Program Webinar By: Howard Tyllas

               

  

 Do you pay $10,000 or $20,000 for a big name firm, let alone if you can profit beyond your hedge the % they take out of your profits, and all you get in return is an opinion where they think the market is going, and outdated ways to take advantage of the market? Break the cycle of being part of the herd mentality. What is right for your neighbor is not always right for you. Each farmer is an individual and should be treated as such. Each farmer has a different story in everything from is he renting or own, where has he locked in costs, how far from the elevator and so on. I have been trading soybeans and corn since I bought my first membership in 1976, and spent the first 13 years trading them daily in the pit for my own account. I started trading options since their inception in Chicago over 20+ years ago and I am considered an options expert. Being a current member of the CBOT, a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) and trading over $1 million in a fund account, I am no stranger to the soybean and corn market, I know the best strategy to implement based upon your thoughts, ideas, and need for risk protection, with known margin money strategy (I will be your market strategist). I also educate you to my strategies so you will know exactly what you are doing and understand them.

It is my opinion based upon what I see offered out there, that the service I provide stands above all others. More important than the fact my costs are more reasonable, I feel that my strategies using options outperforms all the rest. I feel the best they could do is equal what I provide.


Other services it seems, concentrate on the fundamentals, but my clients tell me there is a big difference when it comes to the reality of trading, and that is where they see the biggest difference on what I provide. My options knowledge provides what many others have not even thought about, and after a market moves up or down, and how to better the position to maximize profits. My daily numbers service makes it a complete learning experience and the ability to know exactly what I am thinking and actually trading, is a big plus. I share my 34 years of real time trading knowledge and 20+ years of trading grain options with you. 

 

I also provide psychological guidance to help clients except reality of locking in a profit that they are happy with and still have upside potential, rather than do nothing and gamble looking for even more profits. I as a trader use the market to gamble, I make sure my farmers know that I want them to use the market to take the gamble out of their equation.
I work with each producer directly, spend time learning exactly their needs, and explaining what it is they need to do in order to accomplish their goal in marketing. Almost always when I execute their options strategies, I use a 3 way call with the client on the phone when I call down to the trading floor, and they can listen when I tell my friend (CBOT member) to time stamp an order, tell him the account number and what I want to do, then he goes into that option pit and calls out and asks what's there (quote the bid and offer) on let's say an option spread, and we can actually hear the bid and offer for that right now, we can work the order and move our bid and offer, and we almost always get a much better fill than a market order. You can hear what is there and know just how good a fill price you got. No "man behind the screen", or I have to call the desk, which then takes it to the pit, and then the broker tells the bid and offer, and by the time your "guy" calls you back, the market is nowhere near where it was before. 

Do yourself a favor, and look for a better way to market than what you have now.
Make sure you do not gamble with your farm. Sometimes that means to lock in just enough profit to get you to next year. But at the least you will still be here next year. The person who gambles and looks to sell higher, could see prices so low when he is forced to sell, he loses everything. I tell all my producers, if you think the market is going higher, use your 2nd account to place that gamble, but let the farm be the one to sell it to you, we will see at harvest who is right, but the farm hedge will never be wrong. 

 
Want to know what I think for tomorrow? 

The 9 markets now covered daily are March soybeans, March corn, February crude oil, March S&P, March Euro FX, March 30 yr TBond, February gold, and February natural Gas and February cattle

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

 $199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

 

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

  

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

February Cattle Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 1/20/10

Jan 20, 2010



This report was sent to subscribers on 1/19/10 6:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 1/20/10. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

February Cattle

After the close on 1/20/10: My resistance was 88.15, .22 from the actual high, and my support was 86.65 FG, .32 from the actual low.

Ask yourself, how well would I have traded this market if I had these numbers last night? Subscribe now! See for yourself why this second year of service has quadrupled my subscriber base.

Are you still using a service that comes out in the morning and gives you numbers reflecting what has already traded, and worse than that uses 4 or more support, and 4 or more resistance numbers?

  We cannot post every market, if you are interested sign up for free & get "how I use my numbers".

Sign up For Free 1 Day Trail of Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas

Sign Up for the Free Live one on one Farmer Hedging Program Webinar By: Howard Tyllas

88.55 FG                 (added this resistance)   

88.15                

--------------87.40     Pivot

86.65 FG

85.70 FG

  Use the same numbers as used on 1/19/10

         

Trend                       88.02 is the 200 day MA

5 day chart....…      Up (last week same day)                                                          

Daily chart   ……   Sideways           

Weekly chart ……. Sideways  

Monthly chart …... Sideways 

ATR .95                    Extremely Overbought 92%  



I have been saying "Gap higher opens are bullish and the charts are friendly now as we approach next resistance levels. Trading here turned the chart pattern positive, but will be facing stiff resistance at 88 and 90".

Notice how I use the open outcry chart to locate gaps, but I do my numbers for the electronic market as always. Open outcry is where I find the major players doing business.

In my daily numbers on Tuesday; my resistance was .22 from the actual high, my pivot acted as support and was .30 from the actual low.   

February Cattle (elec.) for 1/20/10: 

Cattle: Helpful numbers. This is a sale here with a buy stop just above the 88.55 gap to protect.

Commentary for 1/19/10

Cattle: Bulls want to see a higher open and have it turn into a gap at the end of the day. Bears would like a sharply lower open and produce an "Island Top" on the chart. I have the same thoughts as yesterday to sell it higher near resistance for a day trade.

Commentary for 1/18/10

Cattle: Market has been gapping higher and friendly chart encourages the bulls. It has been sometime since we have been extremely overbought as we are now, so I would be inclined to sell resistance for a day trade using a buy stop not risking much.

Commentary for 1/15/10

Cattle: Same thoughts as yesterday. If I was long I would look to take some profits and buy a pullback. I will say that the chart is at its first resistance and if they get above that they have one more hill to climb before a possible breakout to the upside. I want to sell at resistance for a day trade only at these levels. I do not want to cheerlead it through tough resistance of 87.22 FG. I do not mind playing the long side, I did call for a possible head and shoulders bottom for some time, but I never buy at a resistance level. If I want to buy I would use my numbers. I am not a long term trader and even if I was in here because of a bullish bias from fundamentals, the chart shows it is a coin flip above 87.22, but until then it is a sell against it. I would not risk much to be proven the trade did not work, but I do not want to be short this market if it closed above 87.22.

 Commentary for 1/14/10

Cattle: .17 off the high and .17 off the low. Right in the middle of the recent high for the run and low. Market is in balance and this chart could go either way, and I do not have a bias for today.

Commentary for 1/13/10

Cattle: Accurate numbers. Market holding support and I am looking for some sideways action.

Commentary for 1/12/10

Cattle: Spot on numbers being 2 ticks from the high and 2 ticks from the low! Of course I want to have a bullish bias for my cattle producers, but the longshot who had a 3 length lead turning for home is "spitting the bit" when it gave up at the downtrend line when the horse named "Bear" is starting to blow past him. The finish line for "Bear" is the bracket line support, and if that goes that line (green) turns into resistance and the market should test the contract lows. The race is not over, and many things can happen in the stretch, but bear has the momentum. As long as the support bracket line holds the head and shoulders formation is still in play.

Near term bullish, longer term bear market, is like saying a horse that is winning is now moving up in class (near the recent highs of the last correction) and that is where he cannot overcome the better quality of competition (the resistance at a high level) and he loses control and goes back down in class until he improves and gains strength to try again. New readers should note, I had race horses and raced for 10 years continuously year round in Chicago. That is why I use this analogy.

Bottom line: Looks like bears are gunning for a retest of the bracket line support at 84.22. This is where I would consider covering shorts or if waiting for a level to go long. The way I would trade today is using the numbers; they have been accurate for quite some time now.

 Want to know what I think for tomorrow? 

The 9 markets now covered daily are March soybeans, March corn, February crude oil, March S&P, March Euro FX, March 30 yr TBond, February gold, and February natural Gas and February cattle

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

  

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

March Soybeans Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 1/14/10

Jan 15, 2010



This report was sent to subscribers on 1/13/10  6:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 1/14/10. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

March Soybeans

After the close on 1/14/10: My pivot acted as resistance and was 9.93 3/4, the EXACT actual high, and my support was 9.79, .03 3/4 from the actual low.

 Ask yourself, how well would I have traded this market if I had these numbers last night? Subscribe now! See for yourself why the second year of service had quadrupled my subscriber base.

Are you still using a service that comes out in the morning and gives you numbers reflecting what has already traded, and worse than that uses 4 or more support, and 4 or more resistance numbers?

  We cannot post every market, if you are interested sign up for free & get "how I use my numbers".

Sign up For Free 1 Day Trail of Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas

Sign Up for the Free Live one on one Farmer Hedging Program Webinar By: Howard Tyllas

On Thursday 1/14/10 my numbers were:

Grains: My resistance was the Exact high and my support was $.03 3/4 from the low in soybeans, and and my resistance was the exact high and my support was $.03 1/2 from the low in corn.

Crude Oil: My resistance was 0.08 from the actual high, my support was 0.55 from the actual low.

S&P: My resistance was 1.00 from the actual high, my support was 0.75 (3 ticks) from the actual low.

Gold: My resistance was $7.20 from the actual high; my support was $4.10 from the actual low. 

Euro:  My resistance was 0.22 from the actual high; my support was 0.34 from the actual low.

Bonds: My resistance was 1 from the actual high; my support was the EXACT actual low. 

Natural Gas: My resistance was .049 from the actual high; my support was .048 from the actual low. 

Cattle: My resistance was the EXACT actual high, my pivot acted as support and was .15 from the actual low.  

Bracket line support worked well, below there is the low of November, then October. Downtrend line is pivotal for Wednesday. 

In my daily numbers on Wednesday my pivot acted as resistance and was $.04 3/4 from the actual high; my support was $.03 1/4 from the actual low.   

 

10.08 1/2

 

-------------9.93 3/4      Pivot & downtrend line

  9.79 

  9.68 1/4 

 
 
 
 

Trend                  

5 day chart.…...     Down (from last week same day)                                                

Daily chart   …….…Sideways                

Weekly chart …….. Sideways      

Monthly chart …..   Sideways $9.87 is the 200 DMA

 ATR 22 1/2              Oversold 21%


March Soybeans for
1/14/10

More chart comments: Bears targeted bracket line and now in corrective mode.

In charting, when a resistance is hurdled it becomes support, and when the support is broken it becomes resistance. 

 Patience to wait for good locations to enter a trade will reward you by providing minimum loss if wrong, and more profit if right. You might miss trades (some glad you did) and not be as active, but this type of trading makes you a casino, not a player. These locations are also valuable to the day trader that can use (in this case) the red bracket line (or the high of $10.61 1/2 or $10.84) to be a seller and have a stronger resistance backing you, hence easier to sell than when in the middle of bracket support and resistance lines  

Grains: Accurate soybean numbers, not helpful corn numbers. Considering the lofty level they were at 2 days ago, soybeans and corn came close to their support bracket lines. Soybeans corrected nicely but now at the downtrend line that comes in at $9.94 (the pivot) and should see good resistance here. I see no reason for the market to rally above where they were going into the report ($10.10 1/2 for SH, $9.90 1/4 for SX) so I want to play the short side using those numbers with a stop close only just above to protect. I am looking for much lower prices from here so the reward is worth the risk.

The giant in this market is the funds and the only one who can crush the bears, except if this is true resistance, I cannot imagine making new highs in soybeans or corn without an "event". Producers and speculators are looking for a place to sell; the question is how high can they get before the next leg down? When a speculator does not sell, he has no risk, if a producer does not sell, and it does not rally to a point he actually sells, he finds himself no different than a speculator who refuses to get out of a losing position and losses get out of control. I tell all my producers to sell their crops, leave whatever they want of the upside on the table, but protect the downside. Not making more profit is one thing (being hedged and the market is currently above your hedge), losing money in return for investment and hard work is financial suicide. In all businesses things can happen that causes losses, but when a business has profits but gambles for more and if not correct about higher prices, take a profitable income from a successful product, and not only throws away money but could cause the business to close. No problem to gamble with a small % of your income, but not the farm.

Looking at the numbers from Yesterday's report, ending corn stocks is about the same as last years, and the report in January 2009 was 250 million bushels over expectations, and yesterday we were 271M over. Last year corn went down $.70 and this year we broke $.42 from the high so far. This year is more bearish in my eye because the markets were recovering from the chaos of 2008, and in 2009 farmers produced a record corn and soybean yield under not ideal conditions. With ample wheat worldwide I would think some acres will be switched to corn and it makes sense for corn to pick up acreage anyway. Soybeans have a tendency to gain on corn early in the year, but if soybeans keep this premium it will attract more area away from corn and make soybeans have even a more bearish outlook than now. We have time for planting intentions, but the window of an "event" in S. American production is closing.

Last year March corn got down to a $3.37 1/4 low in March 2009, but this year with fund rebalancing I would expect March corn to hold $3.59 in the short term but $3.30 has stronger support. I like buying corn and selling soybeans. Buying KC or MW wheat and selling Chicago wheat makes sense with Chicago wheat approaching record stocks.

Commentary for 1/13/10

Grains: Spot on soybean support but not helpful corn numbers. As you know I have been saying for quite a while that the proof is on the bulls, especially at these levels. Instead of a reduction the trade was looking for of 100 million bushels in corn, it gained 230M. This is the 2nd biggest gain from Nov. to Final only to the 250M gain in the drought stricken 1988 crop. 42M gain in soybeans posted the 3rd largest gain from Nov. to Final in history.

Year to year decline in soybean oil was surprising, but not the huge year to year gains in wheat. Go to the surplus situation of the 1980's to find supply such as these. In 2006/07 when on farm US soybeans averaged $6.43, which was the only year that had worldwide soybean stocks bigger than this year. Corn farmers produced record yields in 2009 despite planting and harvest delays.

They also increased their guess of on farm at $3.70, wheat $4.85, and soybeans $9.15. How did they get an on farm corn price at $3.70 when most producers are $.30 to $.50 under CBOT prices?  

I am a bear at these price levels but I prefer to sell rallies. The funds are the only thing that could keep the grain market from reality, and I do not know how long they will keep it up. Lately I have been thinking that the funds are buying grains like someone who would buy baseball cards, coins, gold, artwork; asset class money inflow is the name of the game. Does the supply demand have anything to do with price discovery? Well a US nickel one of 5 known went for auction last week and sold for $3.337 million. Why? Because one day he will find someone more off the wall (or money is totally irrelevant) and he will sell it for more money than he paid for it.

Bottom Line: The highs are in for the year unless 2010 crops are threatened! Please note that all 3 markets closed below their 200 day moving average, and a sign that long term bulls will be throwing in the towel at some point in time as long as we are below this trend "compass". I can see March soybeans at least testing the lows of October of $8.89 and would consider that the first real support. Grain stocks will grow to be burdensome down the road. I expect grains to continue to go lower from here, and can have corrective rallies, but will work their way lower the next 2 to 3 weeks. I still think soybeans have more downside than corn, and want to continue to sell soybeans on rallies, especially in the new crop. I see nothing friendly for soybeans going forward, and S. America is no help for the bulls.

 

 Want to know what I think for tomorrow? 

The 9 markets now covered daily are March soybeans, March corn, February crude oil, March S&P, March Euro FX, March 30 yr TBond, February gold, and February natural Gas and February cattle

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

  

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

March Soybeans Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 1/12/10

Jan 12, 2010



This report was sent to subscribers on 1/11/10 6:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 1/12/10. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

March Soybeans

After the close on 1/12/10: My resistance was 10.21 1/2, .08 from the actual high, and my support was 10.68 1/4, just .00 3/4 from the actual low.

 Ask yourself, how well would I have traded this market if I had these numbers last night? Subscribe now! See for yourself why the second year of service had quadrupled my subscriber base.

Are you still using a service that comes out in the morning and gives you numbers reflecting what has already traded, and worse than that uses 4 or more support, and 4 or more resistance numbers?

  We cannot post every market, if you are interested sign up for free & get "how I use my numbers".

Sign up For Free 1 Day Trail of Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas

Sign Up for the Free Live one on one Farmer Hedging Program Webinar By: Howard Tyllas


10.32 3/4 XX          Buy stops should be found above

10.21 1/2

 

-------------10.05 1/4 FG      Pivot 

  9.89 

  9.68 1/4 

 
 
 
 

Trend                  

5 day chart.…...     Down (from last week same day)                                                

Daily chart   …….…Sideways                

Weekly chart …….. Sideways      

Monthly chart …..   Sideways $9.86 is the 200 DMA

 ATR 23                   Extremely Oversold 6%


I said "Bracket line was perfect resistance and is another example of why I sell resistance bracket lines. Bulls failed to recapture it and paid the price. Once again it was not worth (risk/reward) trying to cheerlead it through". "Notice the low on Friday was exactly at the uptrend line (3rd time at line is the strongest time at the line) and is support now.

In my daily numbers on Monday my pivot acted as resistance and was $.04 1/4 from the actual high; my support was $.00 1/2 from the actual low.  

March Soybeans for 1/12/10

More chart comments:

Support at uptrend line was broken and now acts as resistance. Bears target bracket line now.

In charting, when a resistance is hurdled it becomes support, and when the support is broken it becomes resistance.

Grains: Spot on soybean and corn numbers. I want you to read my commentary for grains in full for 12/8/09 on page 35:

"Can't keep a good soybean down for now, and 2nd half of December usually is friendly for that market. On the other hand, $10.64 soybeans were never seen before March 2004 (April & May 2004 posted highs within $.02) (and 5 months later it traded $5.01) ". pg. 35

I am saying is that $10+ is a producers dream if he can capture that profit without being forced out, and not costing an arm and a leg to lock that price in. Options are the...........pg. 35

Producers and speculators alike shy away from using options because they fall victims to people in a position that were supposed to have the knowledge to reflect their thoughts....pg 35

I want you to read page 35 (12/8/09) for grains in full once again. Markets can and will do anything! That is why I have always approached the market as if I was trying to catch some food falling out of the giant's mouth and run back to the tree to feed my family before his next step comes down and crushes me before I get back to the tree. I have always respected the market and have managed to be fast enough to get back to the tree. I do not care the reason; beans went from $10.64 to $5.01 in 5 months, and look at 2008. March 2009 corn was at $3.80 on 12/10/09 (just a month ago) and was at $3.24 on 9/21/09.....now near $4.20.

Bottom line is I try and take advantage of these swings and look for opportunities presented by the pendulum swing. Producers should sell when profitable at these levels, and end users should buy when they get so cheap they want to take inventory. When you go to the track and you win $100, are you unhappy that your friend made $200? Is he unhappy that he was not the biggest winner at the track that day? The object of this trading game is not to buy the low and sell the high, it is to take advantage of what the market has to offer and try and get odds (risk $1 to make $2 or $3) in your favor and execute. For a speculator, when you get out, it does not matter what the market does after, and your next trade has nothing to do with the last trade.....next trade!

My thoughts before The Report: I cannot believe the corn bulls have corn at this level going into the report. They better be right about the 100 million bushels less corn than the last report. I have been right about buying corn and selling soybeans (or meal) picking up $.35 since January 5, but corn/wheat is stymied by the power of the funds. 2010 capital flow in commodities were supported by the freeze across our land, but now that temps are warming up, should help temper further gains. Think about the energies, meats, and so many markets that were supported by the frigid temperatures. You know I only talk fundamentals that in my eye are relevant and helpful in forming my bias in the short term, but I am not going to waste my time on what you can read from the "market reporters" regurgitating news because they have nothing else of substance to say, and the only thing they provide is their opinion.    

Informa is looking for 100 million more soybeans than the November report. Beans look overpriced to me in relation to corn and looks to lose $.20 more in the short term (1 to 1). It looks to me like 3/1/10 US and S. American soybean stocks could advance 700 million bushels compared to March 2009, and that is about twice the average of US soybean carryover stocks.

I will send my take on the report at 9am Chicago time via email.

Want to know what I think for tomorrow? 

The 9 markets now covered daily are March soybeans, March corn, February crude oil, March S&P, March Euro FX, March 30 yr TBond, February gold, and February natural Gas and February cattle

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

  

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE Report for 1/12/2010)

Jan 12, 2010

 

My initial reaction for the opening is Soybeans down 25 cents, Corn down 20 cents, and wheat down 08 cents. Want to know what I think going forward from here? Subscribe now! 

We cannot post every market, if you are interested sign up for free & get "how I use my numbers".

Sign up For Free 1 Day Trail of Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas

Sign Up for the Free Farmer Hedging Program Webinar By: Howard Tyllas

OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2009/10 is estimated at 99.0 million tons, up 1.1 million from last month. Increases for soybeans, sunflower seed, and peanuts are only partly offset by reductions for cottonseed and canola. Soybean production is estimated at a record 3.361 billion bushels, up 42 million bushels from last month based on higher yields. The soybean yield is estimated at a record 44.0 bushels per acre. Soybean exports are raised 35 million bushels to a record 1.375 billion led by strong sales and shipments to China and several other markets including Taiwan, Thailand, Egypt, and Canada. U.S. export sales have benefitted from tight competitor supplies resulting from last year=s drought-reduced South American crop. The projected soybean crush is raised 15 million bushels to 1.710 billion reflecting increased soybean meal exports. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 245 million bushels, down 10 million from last month. Despite increased crush, soybean oil production is reduced due to a lower extraction rate. With use unchanged, soybean oil stocks are projected at 2.152 billion pounds, down 155 million from last month.

The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2009/10 is projected at $8.90 to $10.40 per bushel, up 15 cents on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 36 to 39 cents per pound, up 0.5 cents on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are projected at $265 to $315 per short ton, up 5 dollars on both ends of the range. 


Global oilseed production for 2009/10 is projected at 431.6 million tons, up 3.0 million from last month. Increased soybean, peanut, and cottonseed production are only partly offset by reduced sunflower seed and rapeseed production. Global soybean production is projected at a record 253.4 million tons, up 3.1 million. Adding to increased U.S. soybean production, Brazil=s soybean crop is projected at a record 65 million tons, up 2 million. The increase is mainly due to higher area reflecting favorable planting conditions and recent survey data from the Brazilian government. Global sunflower seed production is reduced this month due to lower production estimates for Argentina and EU-27. Argentina sunflower harvested area is reduced due to excessively dry conditions during the planting season. Other changes include increased cottonseed production for China, lower cottonseed production for Australia, and increased peanut production for Senegal.

Global oilseed trade for 2009/10 is raised 1 million tons this month primarily due to higher imports for China. Global oilseed ending stocks for 2009/10 are increased 2.2 million tons to 71.1 million with soybean stocks for Brazil and China accounting for most of the change.


COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain ending stocks for 2009/10 are raised based on higher estimated corn and sorghum production. Corn production is estimated at a record 13.2 billion bushels, up 230 million bushels with higher area and yields. Corn feed and residual is projected 150 million bushels higher based on September-November disappearance as indicated by the December 1 stocks. Partly offsetting is a 10-million-bushel reduction in food, seed, and industrial use reflecting lower-than-expected September-November shipments of high fructose corn syrup. Corn ending stocks are projected at 1,764 million bushels, up 89 million bushels and the largest since 2005/06. However, because of higher usage, stocks as a percentage of use are down year-to-year at 13.5 percent compared with 13.9 percent for 2008/09.

Sorghum ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected 9 million bushels higher this month with higher estimated production more than offsetting an increase in projected feed and residual use. Production is raised 19 million bushels with higher estimated yields. Projected sorghum feed and residual use is raised 10 million bushels on higher-than-expected September-November disappearance as indicated by the December 1 stocks. Barley imports and exports are both lowered 5 million bushels based on the pace of trade to date, leaving projected ending stocks unchanged. Oats feed and residual use is raised 5 million bushels based on indicated September-November disappearance, leaving ending stocks down 5 million bushels.

The 2009/10 marketing-year average corn farm price is projected at $3.40 to $4.00 per bushel, up 15 cents on both ends of the range based on reported prices to date and continued strength in futures and cash market values. The projected farm price for sorghum is raised to $3.05 to $3.55 per bushel as compared with $2.85 to $3.45 per bushel last month. The barley farm price is raised 10 cents on the lower end of the projected range to $4.20 to $4.60 per bushel. The oats farm price, however, is projected 10 cents lower on the upper end of the range to $2.00 to $2.20 per bushel based on prices received to date.

Global coarse grain production for 2009/10 is projected 4.7 million tons higher this month with higher corn, barley, and mixed grain output more than offsetting lower output for sorghum, millet, and oats. World corn production is raised 6.3 million tons mostly reflecting the record U.S. crop. Argentina corn production is also raised 1.0 million tons as widespread rainfall encouraged producers to extend the planting season and abundant soil moisture raises prospects for yields. Corn production is lowered 0.5 million tons for Mexico with harvested area reduced on reports that drought during July damaged crops in the southern plateau more extensively than previously thought. Barley production is raised 0.5 million tons for Kazakhstan based on revisions to government estimates. Mixed grain production for EU-27 is raised 0.3 million tons with higher reported output in Poland. India sorghum production is lowered 2.0 million tons on lower reported area and yields. India millet production is reduced 0.4 million tons as lower yields more than offset higher reported area.


Global coarse grain trade for 2009/10 is raised this month mostly reflecting higher corn exports. Serbia corn exports are raised 0.5 million tons with larger available supplies. Russia corn exports are raised 0.1 million tons based on the pace of shipments to date. Global corn imports are raised mostly reflecting a 0.5-million-ton increase projected for Mexico with lower reported production. Global corn ending stocks are projected 3.9 million tons higher with more than half of the increase from rising U.S. stocks. Corn ending stocks are also raised for Brazil, Argentina, EU-27, Mexico, and India.


RICE: The U.S. 2009/10 rice crop is estimated at 219.85 million cwt, up 1.6 million or 1 percent from the previous estimate as both harvested area and average yield are raised. Average yield is estimated at 7,085 pounds per acre, up 47 pounds per acre from last month, and 239 pounds per acre above the previous year. Harvested area is estimated at 3.1 million acres, up 2,000 acres from the previous estimate. Combined medium- and short-grain production is increased 1.4 million cwt to a record 67.1 million and long-grain production is adjusted up 0.2 million to 152.7 million. Although total rice imports for 2009/10 are unchanged at 21.0 million cwt, long-grain imports are raised 0.5 million which is offset by an equal reduction for combined medium- and short-grain imports.

The National Agricultural Statistics Service's (NASS) Rice Stocks reported total rough rice stocks at 156.6 million cwt as of December 1 and total milled stocks at 5.7 million (8.1 million cwt on a rough-equivalent basis). Total rice stocks on a rough-equivalent basis are 164.7 million, up 13 percent from a year earlier. Long-grain stocks as of December 1 areestimated at 106.3 million (rough-equivalent basis) and combined medium- and short-grain stocks at 55.4 million.

Domestic and residual use for 2009/10 is unchanged at a record 129.5 million cwt. Total rice exports are raised 2 million cwt to 99 million, with long-grain and combined medium- and short- grain each raised 1 million. Milled rice exports are raised 2 million cwt (rough-equivalent basis) to 64 million, while rough rice exports are unchanged at 35.0 million cwt. Total rice ending stocks are projected at 42.8 million cwt, down 0.4 million from last month, with long-grain stocks down 0.3 million and combined medium- and short-grain stocks down 0.1 million.

The 2009/10 long-grain season-average farm price range is projected at $12.50 to $13.50 per cwt, down 10 cents per cwt on each end of the range, while the combined medium- and short-grain farm price range is projected at $17.00 to $18.00 per cwt, down 75 cents per cwt on each end of the range. The all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $13.65 to $14.65 per cwt, down 25 cents per cwt on both ends of the range. The price projections are based on NASS reported prices through mid-December and expected prices for the remainder of the marketing year.

Global 2009/10 rice production, consumption, trade and ending stocks are raised slightly from a month ago. The increase in global rice production is due primarily to a larger crop in India, which is up 1.5 million tons to 84.5 million. The government of India raised the Kharif crop (summer harvest) to 71.65 million tons, up 3 percent from an earlier estimate. The Kharif crop typically accounts for about 85 percent of total rice production in India. Additionally, Pakistan's crop is raised from a month ago, while production estimates are lowered for Brazil, Indonesia, Uzbekistan, and Panama. Excessive rains in southern Brazil during planting have lowered planted area and expected yields. Additionally, dryness in central and eastern regions of Java, Indonesia, has lowered production prospects. Global exports for 2009/10 are raised 0.4 million tons largely on expected increase for Pakistan. Exports are also raised for the United States, but lowered for Brazil. World ending stocks are projected at 90.7 million tons, up 1.2 million from last month, but down 1.75 million from 2008/09.


SUGAR: Projected 2009/10 sugar supply is increased 74,000 short tons, raw value, from last month due to higher cane sugar production and lower imports. Higher cane sugar production in Louisiana more than offsets lower output in Florida and Texas. The Florida and Texas estimates are based on reduced area harvested, as reported by processors to the Farm Service Agency. Louisiana sugar production is based on factory-level information through the end of December and projected output for the remaining 2 weeks of the harvest in January. Imports and exports under the U.S. re-export program are reduced 50,000 tons each based on the slow pace to date. Sugar use is unchanged. Ending stocks are increased 124,000 tons to 1.14 million.
For Mexico, projected 2009/10 supply is reduced 242,000 metric tons, raw value, from last month. Production is lowered 100,000 tons based on weather-reduced sugar yields to date. Imports of 55,000 tons under Mexico=s import quota, which did not arrive in 2008/09, are expected to arrive in 2009/10. This shift is nearly offset by reduced imports from U.S. refiners under the re-export program. For 2008/09, reduced ending stocks result from lower imports and higher exports based on final data from Mexico.


LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Total U.S. meat production for 2009 is forecast slightly lower as reduced fourth-quarter pork and turkey production more than offset higher beef production. Broiler meat and egg production forecasts are unchanged from last month.

Forecast meat production for 2010 is raised from last month as pork production is raised. USDA's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated that producers are reducing sows farrowing at a slower rate than expected and continued gains in pigs per litter support higher than previously forecast pig crops. In addition, hog imports are increased for 2010. Beef production is reduced slightly from last month as cattle weights in the first quarter are expected to be lower. USDA will release the Cattle report on January 29, providing indications of cattle supplies and breeding herd decisions.

Beef and broiler export forecasts for 2009 are raised but the pork export forecast is lowered. For 2010, beef exports are raised from last month but pork and broiler exports are reduced. Recently announced quotas and sanitary requirements for imports by Russia are expected to constrain exports of pork and broilers to that country, and broiler exports may also be limited by trade uncertainties in several other countries.
The hog price forecast is raised for 2010 as stronger-than-expected demand in late 2009 is expected to carry forward into 2010. Broiler prices are forecast higher as late 2009 strength in broiler demand should continue into 2010. Cattle prices are unchanged from last month.


The milk production forecast is raised for 2010 reflecting the relatively slow pace of cow liquidation in late 2009. Commercial dairy exports for 2009 are adjusted reflecting stronger skim-basis sales, but slightly weaker fat-basis sales. Import forecasts are reduced for 2009. Trade forecasts are unchanged for 2010. Fat and skim-solids ending stocks are forecast higher for 2009. Ending stocks for 2010 are raised on a skim-solids basis but are lowered on a fat-basis. Forecasts of butter and cheese prices are lowered as milk production forecasts are raised. However, relatively strong international demand should support prices for nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey. The 2010 Class III price is lowered from last month as lower expected cheese prices more than offset stronger whey prices. The Class IV price forecast for 2010 is raised from last month as stronger NDM prices more than offset weaker butter prices. The all milk price is reduced to $16.20 to $17.00 for 2010.


COTTON: The 2009/10 U.S. cotton estimates include slight decreases in production and ending stocks compared with last month. Production is lowered by 191,000 bales, as reductions in the Southeast, Delta, and Southwest states are partially offset by increases in the far West. Domestic mill use and exports are unchanged. The ending stocks forecast is reduced to 4.3 million bales, or 30 percent of total use. The forecast range of 57 to 64 cents per pound for the average price received by producers is raised 1 cent on the lower end.


The world 2009/10 cotton estimates are virtually unchanged from last month. Increases in production for China and Brazil are offset by decreases for India, the United States, Australia, and others. World consumption is lowered marginally due to reductions for Japan and Russia. Minor adjustments are made to world trade. The world ending stocks forecast of 51.7 million bales reflects a 15-percent decrease from the beginning level. World stocks outside of China of 34.2 million bales are forecast at their lowest since 2003/04.

Want to know what I think for tomorrow? 

The 9 markets now covered daily are March soybeans, March corn, February crude oil, March S&P, March Euro FX, March 30 yr TBond, February gold, and February natural Gas and February cattle

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

 $199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

 

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

  

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

March Soybeans Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 1/11/10

Jan 11, 2010



This report was sent to subscribers on 1/8/10  6:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 1/11/10. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

March Soybeans

After the close on 1/11/10: My pivot acted as resistance and was 10.28 1/2, .04 1/4 from the actual high, and my support was 10.05 1/4 FG, just .00 1/2 from the actual low.

 Ask yourself, how well would I have traded this market if I had these numbers last night? Subscribe now! See for yourself why the second year of service had quadrupled my subscriber base.

Are you still using a service that comes out in the morning and gives you numbers reflecting what has already traded, and worse than that uses 4 or more support, and 4 or more resistance numbers?

  We cannot post every market, if you are interested sign up for free & get "how I use my numbers".

Sign up For Free 1 Day Trail of Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas

Sign Up for the Free Live one on one Farmer Hedging Program Webinar By: Howard Tyllas

10.63

10.43 3/4

 

-------------10.28 1/2       Pivot 

10.13 1/4 

 
 

10.05 1/4 FG      

 

Trend                  

5 day chart.…...     Down (from last week same day)                                                

Daily chart   …….…Sideways                

Weekly chart …….. Sideways      

Monthly chart …..   Sideways $9.86 is the 200 DMA

 ATR 22 1/2               Oversold 23%




March Soybeans for
1/11/10

More chart comments:

I said "Bracket line was perfect resistance on Thursday". Support at uptrend line at $10.13 1/4.

In charting, when a resistance is hurdled it becomes support, and when the support is broken it becomes resistance.

Patience to wait for good locations to enter a trade will reward you by providing minimum loss if wrong, and more profit if right. You might miss trades (some glad you did) and not be as active, but this type of trading makes you a casino, not a player. These locations are also valuable to the day trader that can use (in this case) the red bracket line (or the high of $10.61 1/2 or $10.84) to be a seller and have a stronger resistance backing you, hence easier to sell than when in the middle of bracket support and resistance lines.

Commentary for 1/11/10

Grains: Spot on corn and helpful soybean numbers. As you know I was expecting soybeans, corn, and wheat to erode going into the report. Soybeans did, but corn and wheat continued their march higher.

As I have admitted, I have no clue to what's going to be on this report. This is the reason that I would stand aside going into the report with no position. For a producer that would mean to be 100% hedged, because if not you are no different than a speculator who is outright long. No matter if you're a speculator or producer, now is your chance to place your bets going into the report. Write in your journal what your thoughts are and the reasons why you do or not do something. This is the reality on what you are thinking, what you have already done, and what you want to do. On Monday you should write all your thoughts, and then on Tuesday when the report comes out, and the market opens sharply higher or sharply lower, you will not say what you should have done, or could have done, or would have done, because all that means is you are not doing what you are supposed to do. That is the reason for keeping a journal, to keep it real. Nothing is holding you back from doing what YOU want to do, only YOU! The worst thing as a trader you can do is be the "little old lady" at the race track telling you that she knew who was going to win after the race is over. And then give all the reasons why she did not bet it. This weak mindset is doomed because there is no responsibility for action or lack of it, and so no improvement can be made.

This is a very high risk report, and with the wide range of expectations it is sure to be a volatile outcome that will be reflected in the day's trade, and maybe going forward. With that being said, why would I have a position if I don't have a strong conviction? After I see the report I will send you my thoughts and reaction by 9 AM Chicago time.

Commentary for 1/8/10

Grains: Accurate numbers! Breakdown in soybeans giving up some risk exposure before the report is what I was looking for in soybeans, but corn barely moved. Two trading days before the high risk report I have no further comment. I am not going into "what if" scenarios, I will say I only expect more position adjusting going into the weekend and report. I would only spread trade going into this report but I prefer to stand aside. Exports for soybeans was what we were looking for, the products, corn, and wheat were disappointing. 

 Commentary for 1/7/10

Grains: Spot on soybean and corn numbers. I am impressed with the support in the market and the way the gap left from Thursday's end of year close in soybeans. Outside markets especially crude oil, and across the board commodity strength is underpinning grains. Considering I do not know what to expect in the crop report Tuesday, I am surprised that the market is holding up at this level going into this high risk report. This is the main reason outside the chart why I expect some price decay from here going into Tuesday.

I believe $4.50 new crop corn (CZ 2010)  and $10.50 in new crop soybeans (SX 2010) should bring out farmer selling, as I am for hedging 100% of your crop at these levels and leaving some upside in case of a rally for whatever the reason. Paying $.38 with no margin requirement for $4 upside in soybeans with 6 months before expiration makes sense if you need to satisfy your mind. If it costs $1900 per contract to live in peace with yourself, it is worth it. Hedging at historic price levels is the prudent thing to do. You see today what is currently around you, now take a helicopter ride with me above the forest because you are like a tree in the forest and are only seeing the trees next to you. What you now see is that on the other side of the forest is a fire that is spreading and coming your way, and that is the possibility that S. American 2010 soybean crop will be a record, and maybe 1 billion (with a B) bushels more than last year. I do not care what the reason is for the opportunity to lock in these prices.

Anything can and will happen eventually, but I try and am realistic in my expectations given the facts known and what my charts tell me. I am not one sided (even though I am always a bull at heart for our farmers) and am more than willing to change my bias whenever the need to do so exists. My long range bias could be bullish, but if at a resistance chart level I will have a bearish bias for the day. I have no problem to change my bias, but rarely flip flop unless an event occurred. I form a fundamental bias first in grains because it is not a complicated fundamental market, and then get the chart and use it as a road map for price discovery. I follow the map and try not to get lost.

Want to know what I think for tomorrow? 

The 9 markets now covered daily are March soybeans, March corn, February crude oil, March S&P, March Euro FX, March 30 yr TBond, February gold, and February natural Gas and February cattle

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

  

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

February Cattle Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 1/11/10

Jan 11, 2010


This report was sent to subscribers on 1/8/10  6:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 1/11/10. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

February Cattle

After the close on 1/11/10: My pivot acted as resistance and was 85.92, just .05 (2 ticks) from the actual high, and my support was 85.05 FG, just .05 from the actual low

 Ask yourself, how well would I have traded this market if I had these numbers last night? Subscribe now! See for yourself why the second year of service had quadrupled my subscriber base.

Are you still using a service that comes out in the morning and gives you numbers reflecting what has already traded, and worse than that uses 4 or more support, and 4 or more resistance numbers?

  We cannot post every market, if you are interested sign up for free & get "how I use my numbers".

Sign up For Free 1 Day Trail of Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas

Sign Up for the Free Live one on one Farmer Hedging Program Webinar By: Howard Tyllas

87.22 FG                

86.80               

--------------85.92     Pivot

85.05 FG

84.67 FG

Use the same numbers as used on 1/ 5, 6, 7 & 8 /10

         

Trend                       88.12 is the 200 day MA

5 day chart....…      Down (last week same day)                                                          

Daily chart   ……   Down         

Weekly chart ……. Sideways  

Monthly chart …... Sideways 

ATR 1.02                 Balanced 54%  


February Cattle (elec.) for 1/11/10: 

I continue to say "86.80 is resistance, and then the gap at 87.22. Support is the gaps at 85.05, then 84.67".  

 Notice how I use the open outcry chart to locate gaps, but I do my numbers for the electronic market as always. Open outcry is where I find the major players doing business.

   In my daily numbers on Friday; my pivot acted as resistance and was .25 from the actual high, my support was .35 from the actual low.  

Cattle: Helpful numbers. Since I continue to have the same thoughts, here is a copy and paste from what I said: 

"Head and shoulders formation is still in play, and the possibility for a quick 4.00 move is great. You are looking at a bullish near term chart in a longer term bear market. I have the same exact thoughts as on 1/4 & 1/5/10".

 Want to know what I think for tomorrow? 

The 9 markets now covered daily are March soybeans, March corn, February crude oil, March S&P, March Euro FX, March 30 yr TBond, February gold, and February natural Gas and February cattle

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

  

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

February Cattle Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 1/6/10

Jan 06, 2010


This report was sent to subscribers on 1/5/10 6:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 1/6/10. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

February Cattle

After the close on 1/6/10: My resistance  was 86.80, just .02 from the actual high, and my pivot acted as support and was 85.92, .30 from the actual low.

Ask yourself, how well would I have traded this market if I had these numbers last night? Subscribe now! See for yourself why the second year of service had quadrupled my subscriber base.

Are you still using a service that comes out in the morning and gives you numbers reflecting what has already traded, and worse than that uses 4 or more support, and 4 or more resistance numbers?

  We cannot post every market, if you are interested sign up for free & get "how I use my numbers".

Sign up For Free 1 Day Trail of Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas

Sign Up for the Free Live one on one Farmer Hedging Program Webinar By: Howard Tyllas


87.22 FG                

86.80               

--------------85.92     Pivot

85.05 FG

84.67 FG

      Use the same numbers as used on 1/5/10

         

Trend                       88.17 is the 200 day MA

5 day chart....…      Up (last week same day)                                                          

Daily chart   ……   Down        

Weekly chart ……. Sideways 

Monthly chart …... Sideways

ATR .92                   Balanced 78%  


February Cattle (elec.) for 1/6/10: 

86.80 is resistance, and then the gap at 87.22. Support is the gaps at 85.05, then 84.67. 

    Notice how I use the open outcry chart to locate gaps, but I do my numbers for the electronic market as always. Open outcry is where I find the major players doing business.

  In my daily numbers on Tuesday; my resistance was .20 from the actual high, my support was the .30 from the actual low. 

Cattle: Accurate numbers. Head and shoulders formation is still in play, and the possibility for a quick 4.00 move is great. You are looking at a bullish near term chart in a longer term bear market. I have the same exact thoughts as on 1/4 & 1/5/10

Want to know what I think for tomorrow? 

The 9 markets now covered daily are January soybeans, March corn, February crude oil, March S&P, March Euro FX, March 30 yr TBond, February gold, and February natural Gas and February cattle

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

  

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

Log In or Sign Up to comment

COMMENTS

Receive the latest news, information and commentary customized for you. Sign up to receive Beef Today's Cattle Drive today!. Interested in the latest prices for cattle in your area? See highlights of the latest for-sale cattle in the Cattle-Exchange eNewsletter.

Hot Links & Cool Tools

    •  
    •  
    •  
    •  
    •  
    •  
    •  

facebook twitter youtube View More>>
 
 
 
 
The Home Page of Agriculture
© 2014 Farm Journal, Inc. All Rights Reserved|Web site design and development by AmericanEagle.com|Site Map|Privacy Policy|Terms & Conditions