Jul 11, 2014
Home| Tools| Events| Blogs| Discussions| Sign UpLogin


March 2011 Archive for Hedging Corn and Soybeans

RSS By: Howard Tyllas, AgWeb.com

Howard Tyllas is currently a member of the Chicago Board of Trade and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a floor broker and as a Commodity Trading Advisor.

USDA Report 3/31/11

Mar 31, 2011

 

Sign up For Free 1 Day Trail of Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas

Sign Up for Learn a better way to hedge for farmersAfter you
learn (No costs or fees) I will execute your hedges with you on the
phone with a floor broker on the grain floor inside the pit trading. You
will hear bids and offers and can direct or change your order

 

Report 3/31/11

Corn Stocks Down 15 Percent from March 2010

Soybean Stocks Down 2 Percent

All Wheat Stocks Up 5 Percent

Corn stocks in all positions on March 1, 2011 totaled 6.52 billion bushels, down 15 percent from March 1, 2010. Of the total stocks, 3.38 billion bushels are stored on farms, down 26 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 3.14 billion bushels are down slightly from a year ago. The December 2010 - February 2011 indicated disappearance is 3.53 billion bushels, compared with 3.21 billion bushels during the same period last year.

Soybeans stored in all positions on March 1, 2011 totaled 1.25 billion bushels, down 2 percent from March 1, 2010. Soybean stocks stored on farms are estimated at 505 million bushels, down 17 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 744 million bushels, are up 13 percent from last March. Indicated disappearance for the December 2010 - February 2011 quarter totaled 1.03 billion bushels, down 4 percent from the same period a year earlier.

All wheat stored in all positions on March 1, 2011 totaled 1.42 billion bushels, up 5 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 288 million bushels, down 17 percent from last March. Off-farm stocks, at 1.14 billion bushels, are up 13 percent from a year ago. The December 2010 - February 2011 indicated disappearance is 508 million bushels, up 20 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Durum wheat stocks in all positions on March 1, 2011 totaled 56.5 million bushels, up 2 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 35.7 million bushels, are up 4 percent from March 31, 2010. Off-farm stocks totaled 20.8 million bushels, down 2 percent from a year ago. The December 2010 - February 2011 indicated disappearance of 11.8 million bushels is down 42 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Barley stocks in all positions on March 1, 2011 totaled 138 million bushels, down 12 percent from March 1, 2010. On-farm stocks are estimated at 57.7 million bushels, 14 percent below a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 80.3 million bushels, are 11 percent below March 2010. The December 2010 - February 2011 indicated disappearance totaled 42.4 million bushels, 14 percent below the same period a year earlier.

Oats stored in all positions on March 1, 2011 totaled 86.3 million bushels, 12 percent below the stocks on March 1, 2010. Of the total stocks on hand, 27.0 million bushels are stored on farms, down 13 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks totaled 59.4 million bushels, down 11 percent from the previous year. Indicated disappearance during December 2010 - February 2011 totaled 14.7 million bushels, up 16 percent from the same period a year ago.

Grain sorghum stored in all positions on March 1, 2011 totaled 171 million bushels, down 3 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 13.0 million bushels, are down 45 percent from last March. Off-farm stocks, at 158 million bushels, are up 4 percent from a year earlier. The December 2010 - February 2011 indicated disappearance from all positions is 66.8 million bushels, down 11 percent from the same period last year.

Sunflower stocks in all positions on March 1, 2011 totaled 867 million pounds, down 29 percent from March 1, 2010. All stocks stored on farms totaled 330 million pounds and off-farm stocks totaled 537 million pounds. Stocks of oil type sunflower seed are 663 million pounds; of this total, 257 million pounds are on-farm stocks and 406 million pounds are off-farm stocks. Non-oil sunflower stocks totaled 204 million pounds, with 73.2 million pounds stored on the farm and 130 million pounds stored off the farm.

Corn Planted Acreage Up 5 Percent from 2010 Soybean Acreage Down 1 Percent

All Wheat Acreage Up 8 Percent

All Cotton Acreage Up 15 Percent

Corn growers intend to plant 92.2 million acres of corn for all purposes in 2011, up 5 percent from last year and 7 percent higher than in 2009. If realized, this will be the second highest planted acreage in the United States since 1944, behind only the 93.5 million acres planted in 2007.

Acreage increases of 250,000 or more are expected in Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, and South Dakota. The largest decrease is expected in Texas, down 150,000 acres.

Soybean planted area for 2011 is estimated at 76.6 million acres, down 1 percent from last year. If realized, the United States planted area will be the third largest on record. Compared with last year, planted acreage declines of 100,000 acres or more are expected in Iowa, Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, and Ohio. If realized, the planted area in New York and North Dakota will be the largest on record.

All wheat planted area is estimated at 58.0 million acres, up 8 percent from last year. The 2011 winter wheat planted area, at 41.2 million acres, is 10 percent above last year and up 1 percent from the previous estimate. Of this total, about 29.4 million acres are Hard Red Winter, 8.2 million acres are Soft Red Winter, and 3.7 million are White Winter. Area planted to other spring wheat for 2011 is estimated at 14.4 million acres, up 5 percent from 2010. Of this total, about 13.6 million acres are Hard Red Spring wheat. Durum planted area for 2011 is estimated at 2.37 million acres, down 8 percent from 2010.

All cotton plantings for 2011 are expected to total 12.6 million acres, 15 percent above last year. Upland acreage is expected to total 12.3 million acres, up 14 percent from 2010. American Pima acreage is expected to total 252,500 acres, up 24 percent from 2010. Cotton acreage increases are expected in every State. The largest increase, at 548,000 acres, is expected in Texas.

Acreage increases of more than 100,000 acres are expected in North Carolina, Georgia, and Mississippi.

Wantto know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?

The 7 marketsnow covered daily are Soybeans, Corn, Crude oil, S&P, 30 yrTBond,
Gold, and Nat gas

My numbersusually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day
open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and
sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

Findout why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India,
Switzerland, South Korea ,Turkey and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllasDaily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 8 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllasDaily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading
strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

HowardTyllasDaily Numbers & Trade Ideas $ 199.00

Theweekly service is "Monday only" and comes out usually by Saturday
morning so you can prepare for Sunday night and Monday's trade.

Weekly Service: 13 weeksfor $129 total subscription fee.

MayYour Next Trade Be TheBest


Howard Tyllas

Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-823-9189


Disclaimer: No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where
projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk.
In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied
promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will
profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such
promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication
of future performance

May Corn Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 3/17/11

Mar 18, 2011

top1

This report was sent to subscribers on 3/16/11 6:10 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 3/17/11. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

May Corn

After the close recap on 3/17/11: My resistance was 6.47 3/4, .01 from the actual high, and my pivot acted as support and was 6.19, .03 from the actual low.

Subscribe now! Do yourself a favor and get your numbers after the market is closed to be used for the next session trading. Ask yourself how much would it have been worth to read my comments and get my numbers 14 hours before today's open outcry?

All charts and numbers for 3/18/11 have already been sent to subscribers at 3:40 pm. 

If you are looking for a better way to hedge 2010 and 2011 crops, and want to work with Howard one on one, call or email Howard for more information. 

Sign up For Free 1 Day Trail of Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas

 Sign Up for Learn a better way to hedge for farmers  After you learn (No costs or fees) I will execute your hedges with you on the phone with a floor broker on the grain floor inside the pit trading. You will hear bids and offers and can direct or change your order.

6.47 ¾                         near crisscross resistance     

6.34 ¼                              

------------- 6.19           Pivot

6.03 ¾ FG                             

5.88 ¼                               

 

Trend                      

5 day chart........     Down  from last week same day                                                         

Daily chart   ......   Down  

Weekly chart .......Up

Monthly chart ....  Up           5.44 is the 200 DMA

ATR 25                                   EX. Oversold 6%

corn 3 17 11

 

Steep downtrend line coupled with the blue uptrend line is resistance at $6.48. $6.36 ½ is where May corn settled on 12/31/2010. 

May Corn for 3/17/11:

Uptrend line is support which comes in at $6.95 for the May contract this week of 3/7/11.

In my daily corn numbers on Wednesday; my resistance was .10 ¼ from the actual high; my support was .04 ¼ from the actual low.  

3/17/11:

Grains: Grain supports were spot on, resistance numbers were helpful. Market reporters are happy to have so much news and information to write stories of why the markets did what they did, and of course written during or after the close. Ok, so you know all this information, how did that help you today, and how will that information help you tomorrow to form a plan that tells you when to buy and also when to sell, and in what time frame, and what to risk in order to pursue the gains? Being a floor trader standing in the pit trading for my own account, do you really think the fundamentals did anything more than have a bias at best? When the market goes up and down throughout the day, now what do you think the fundamentals did for me in the way of discovering at what price I want to do what, and why? "I never want to be right the fundamentals and wrong the market, I would rather be right the market for all the wrong reasons", I always say. That is why I have always used a daily bar chart and supplement with a 5 minute chart to get my daily numbers.

At times I need to use the weekly and monthly charts. I use these chart areas to get my trade ideas, and as you know I always use a stop to try and keep losses at a minimum, and use chart locations that if the number holds, a good reward is possible. I never press my lines (meaning I think they will not hold and will be broken) and believe they hold more than they do not, and instead of being skittish trying to buy (in today's case), I just trade a reduced size. When I swing trade I might not allow much more room than I do for a day trade for my stop, and sometimes using the second number for a stop, and will manage it in time keeping the risk in relation to the reward I seek.    

May corn held their "gap support" at the 2011 low and provides a buying opportunity for traders. I would have traded only a small amount because of the quick huge losses, but I would always want to buy a gap support no matter if to cover shorts, get long, or both. If May corn can reach their downtrend line that comes in at $6.48, which would be a selling opportunity. Bulls need to recapture the major uptrend line (closing above) in order to regain control. Notice how the high on Wednesday was exactly the uptrend line. The market was higher yet the bulls were unable to recapture the uptrend line (finding sellers there) and the bears were on to test the low of the year. Closing $.08 off their low indicates possible exhaustion in the sell action. Market is higher tonight confirming the support was strong as expected. The market can do anything, and that includes going to the uptrend line again, failing, and the bears will want to retest the low once again.    

December corn chart provided the exact low of the day on Wednesday, and another example of the power of a trend line. May corn major uptrend line finally failed, but the December uptrend line continues to hold for now. I think we are at the bottom of the value area before the report no matter the fundamentals, unless a further breakdown in assuming risk occurs. This is another example of markets can and will do anything. Fundamentals do nothing in helping you participate in this major league gambling arena. It does not give you a plan, how to manage risk and time, or really do anything except maybe planting a "sucker bet" in your mind. $5.70 to $5.80 should be good resistance the remainder of this week.

May soybean pendulum hit the end of its swing on Wednesday, and is swinging back to the upside now. Downtrend line coupled with the major uptrend line provides strong resistance at $13.22. Support is the gap left from Tuesday at $12.70. As in corn I think we are nearing a value area in soybeans until the report on the 31st. 

November soybean chart continues to hold its major uptrend line just as new crop corn chart has. The new crop charts are what is supporting old crop from further loss at this time. Uptrend line provides a place to take profits on shorts, and a contra trend trade buy signal, which I would trade with a smaller contract size. My stop on a long term swing trade looking for $12.90, I would use a sell stop below the last uptrend line at $12.18 to protect from further losses. Known risk strategies will not only manage your risk, but allow you the time to see if your trade idea will work without risk of being stopped out. Downtrend line crisscrosses with steep uptrend line at $12.95 providing strong resistance.

I want to trade both markets without bias using the numbers, and risk $.05 in corn and $.08 in soybeans using a stop to protect.   

3/16/11:

Grains: Spot on corn numbers, spot on soybeans resistance and support was no help. I have said for years in my service and always have a reminder, when the funds want out, the market will experience a sharp drawdown. Trying to sell corn when the funds are liquidating is like trying to sell sand at the beach. There are 2 factors that are bigger than the market, Mother Nature and the funds. Funds holding twice the amount of the entire corn carryout speak for itself. If the store is closing in 3 days and you must liquidate your inventory, what happens? The first day you reduce the price to where it will attract buyers. Depending on how well the price reduced inventory, and the time left to exit, a decision is made as to how much to reduce the price. The second day if successful has liquidated dramatically inventory and if so the little remaining can be reduced slightly. But if the second day did not go well, it is usually announced that every hour until closing on the 3rd day that prices will be reduced to sold. This is the task of the funds have when trying to move inventory in a short period of time. When the funds allocate funds, they execute what they want to do at the time they do it, and their reason does not matter to me. They sold 40,000 contracts today which bring their 5 day total to 94,000 contracts. Their position is still at historic levels.

Do you really want to hear about the fundamentals? I did not think so, and it could wait until the weekend for further recap going into the report. May Corn chart for May broke their major uptrend line and now becomes strong resistance at $5.48 today. May corn has support at $6.14, and then "Custer's Last Stand" at the gap at $6.03 ¾, below there something is really wrong with the market, or the funds continued to liquidate.

December Corn is at $5.45, exactly on the uptrend line tonight and is pivotal going forward. $5.36 and then $5.23 should find good support before the report. I use the numbers to find resistance because there is no real resistance until $5.80 and that would be a gift to sell on the current chart look. I would not sell corn here at the line, but further breakdown below would make me want more protection down to $5.20 to $5. I would roll down puts or I would use intrinsic put spreads for new hedges and help pay for them selling some upside (of your choice). (December corn chart on page 4)    

May Soybean chart supports have not changed, and the only thing encouraging is the market gapped higher and is holding, if we can close above there and leave the gap intact, that would bode well for another up day to follow, especially if they close near their high for the day. $13.20 is the major uptrend line and it now acts as strong resistance. Bracket line at $13.54 is next resistance.

November Soybean chart held their second uptrend line after giving up the first at $12.90 which now becomes resistance. Gap higher open is encouraging, but depending on today's action that will be recorded on the chart will paint more of a picture. Predicting further fund liquidation is impossible to predict. Charts are the only clue (and a big one) that I use to predict the possible support and resistance NO MATTER THE REASON and try to take advantage of the pendulum swing by having a trade idea based on the chart that allows me to risk a little if wrong, and have a nice reward when the number holds. Support is just under Tuesday's low, and the major trend line comes in this week at $12.20, and a place where I believe ALL my producers are covered down to (or below) and unless that is broken, I would not want to roll down considering the cost are very expensive.

No matter what you can have both upside .....    Subscribe now!

 

I want to trade the numbers without bias today and risk $.05 in corn and $.08 in soybeans on any trade idea using a stop to protect. This is the second day in the last 10 trading days that I would attempt a buy, but same as the last time, I want to have a minimum contract size on the buy signals, and not many more on the sell ideas seeing as how may soybeans have collapsed $1.50 on this recovery rally, and over $1.90 from the high of the year which exceeds the November break by more than $.20. May corn has plummeted over $1.10 since the high on 3/4/11, which has exceeded the November break by $.15.

New Subscribers:  Keep in mind that these are day trading numbers. They are equally to be used for swing trading and longer term trading time frames on the day I want to enter or exit my position. The charts are to be used for overall trade location looking for areas of price discovery of support and resistance levels. When the market does go to the charts longer term support or resistance levels such as bracket lines or longer term trend lines, I use my numbers on that day to enter or exit my position. The numbers do not tell you what to do, you are in control of that, but they will give you a framework to try and buy or sell at the best price for that day. For me it gives me a strategy and the best way I have found to discover the best price for entering or exiting my trade ideas.

If I have the exact numbers for the actual high and low of the day 12 hours in advance, the question has always been, how do I trade it? That is what I best describe in my numbers explanation. Any intuitiveness or nuances I trade, I would keep a journal to see if it is worthwhile overriding my plan. I rarely go against my explanation

Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?

The 7 markets now covered daily are Soybeans, Corn, Crude oil, S&P, 30 yrTBond, Gold, and Nat gas

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea ,Turkey  and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 8 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $ 199.00

The weekly service is "Monday only" and comes out usually by Saturday morning so you can prepare for Sunday night and Monday's trade.

Weekly Service: 13 weeks for $129 total subscription fee.

 

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

   BT

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

 

WASDE REPORT 3/10/11

Mar 10, 2011

top1 

Sign up For Free 1 Day Trail of Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas

Sign Up for Learn a better way to hedge for farmers After you learn (No costs or fees) I will execute your hedges with you on the phone with a floor broker on the grain floor inside the pit trading. You will hear bids and offers and can direct or change your order.

 

 WHEAT: U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected higher this month on reduced export prospects. Projected exports are lowered 25 million bushels with increased world supplies of high quality wheat, particularly in Australia, and a slower-than-expected pace of U.S. shipments heading into the final quarter of the wheat marketing year. By-class changes include lower projected exports for Hard Red Spring, White, and durum wheat, partly offset by small increases for Hard Red Winter and Soft Red Winter wheat. The marketing-year average price received by producers is projected at $5.60 to $5.80 per bushel, unchanged from last month.

Global 2010/11 wheat supplies are projected 1.9 million tons higher reflecting higher production. Argentina production is raised 1.0 million tons based on higher reported yields. Australia production is raised 1.0 million tons with higher yields in Western Australia where wheat quality was not hurt by harvest rains as in the east. Other production changes include a 0.5-million-ton reduction for EU-27 with a smaller crop reported for Denmark and a 0.6-million-ton increase for Saudi Arabia on an upward revision to area.

 

 Global wheat trade is projected lower partly reflecting reduced import prospects for a number of smaller markets as high prices trim demand. The largest import reduction, however, is for Russia where imports are lowered 1.5 million tons. Despite last year’s drought, Russia appears to be meeting its wheat needs as the government’s export ban helps maintain supplies for domestic users. With lower imports by Russia, Ukraine exports are lowered 1.5 million tons. Ukraine’s export restrictions have also disrupted trade with non-FSU countries. Exports are lowered 0.5 million tons for EU-27 on tighter supplies and the rising value of the Euro. Although exports are unchanged for the Australia October-September marketing year, exports are raised 1.0 million tons for the 2010/11 July-June international trade year increasing expected competition for U.S. wheat exports over the next few months.

Global 2010/11 wheat consumption is projected lower with the biggest change being a 1.5-million-ton reduction in expected wheat feeding for Russia. With increased global production and reduced usage, world ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected 4.1 million tons higher.

 

COARSE GRAINS: The U.S. feed grain balance sheet for 2010/11 is nearly unchanged this month. Projections for corn, sorghum, and oats supplies, usage, and ending stocks are all unchanged. Barley exports are lowered 2 million bushels reflecting the slow pace of shipments and sales to date. The projected marketing-year average farm price for corn is narrowed 10 cents on both ends of the range to $5.15 to $5.65 per bushel. Farm price projections for sorghum and barley are lowered slightly and the oats farm price projection is raised slightly, all reflecting reported prices to date.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2010/11 are projected 2.5 million tons lower this month with lower corn beginning stocks and reduced corn, barley, sorghum, and oats production. Global corn beginning stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons with upward revisions to Brazil exports and India feeding in 2009/10.

Global 2010/11 corn production is reduced 0.5 million tons as lower production in Mexico and India is partially offset by higher production in Brazil. Brazil corn production for 2010/11 is raised 2.0 million tons reflecting higher reported area and yields in the summer crop and expectations for increased area for the winter crop with government planting dates extended for crop insurance and loan programs. Mexico corn production is reduced 2.0 million tons as the unusual early February freeze destroyed standing corn crops across much of the northwest winter corn region, which normally accounts for about one-fourth of the country’s total corn production. Replanting is expected to offset some of the loss, but seasonally high temperatures in the coming months limit the growing season window.

Global 2010/11 sorghum and barley production are each lowered 0.5 million tons and oats production is lowered 0.3 million tons. Lower sorghum output for India more than offsets an increase for Australia. Lower barley and oats output for Australia account for most of the reduction in world production for these coarse grains.

Global 2010/11 coarse grain imports are raised this month as increases for corn and sorghum more than offset a reduction for barley. Corn imports are raised 1.1 million tons for Mexico with the lower production outlook. Corn imports are raised 1.0 million tons for EU-27 on stronger expected feeding. A 0.5-million-ton reduction for Russia corn imports is partly offsetting. Sorghum imports are raised for EU-27 and barley imports are lowered for Russia, Saudi Arabia, and China. Increased corn feeding in EU-27 is more than offset by reductions in feeding in Russia and lower food, seed, and industrial use in India and Mexico. Projected global corn ending stocks are raised slightly.

OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2010/11 are mostly unchanged from last month. A higher soybean meal extraction rate is offset by a small increase in soybean meal exports, leaving the projected soybean crush unchanged. Soybean oil production is increased due to a higher soybean oil extraction rate. Soybean oil used for biodiesel for 2010/11 is projected at 2.7 billion pounds, down 200 million from last month due to lower-than-expected production through January. Soybean oil exports are increased 200 million pounds to 3.0 billion reflecting continued strong export shipments and sales. Soybean oil stocks are projected at 2.4 billion pounds, down 165 million from last month. If realized, soybean oil ending stocks would be the lowest in 6 years.

per bushel, down 10 cents on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 51.5 to 55.5 cents per pound, up 0.5 cents on both ends. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $340 to $370 per short ton, down 10 dollars on the high end.

Global oilseed production for 2010/11 is projected at 444.2 million tons, up 2.4 million tons from last month. Foreign production, projected at 343.7 million tons, accounts for all of the change. Brazil soybean production is forecast at a record 70.0 million tons, up 1.5 million tons from last month due to higher projected yields. Soybean production is also raised for China. Global sunflowerseed production is raised 0.3 million tons due to higher estimates for China and EU-27. Global cottonseed production is reduced with lower production in China, India, and Uzbekistan only partly offset by increases for Australia and Brazil.

Global oilseed supplies, crush, and ending stocks are projected higher this month. Soybean crush is projected higher for Brazil and India, and sunflowerseed crush is raised for China and EU-27. Higher soybean stocks for Brazil and Argentina are only partly offset by reductions for China, Canada, and India. Higher rapeseed stocks are projected for EU-27, Australia, and Turkey. Global protein meal production, consumption, and stocks are all projected higher this month.

SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2010/11 is decreased 163,000 short tons, raw value, from last month. Cane sugar production in Florida is reduced 60,000 tons, based on processor forecasts. Imports from Mexico are decreased 110,000 tons, in line with Mexico=s lower production and export forecasts. Use is unchanged. Ending stocks of 1.185 million tons are 10.4 percent of use.

For Mexico, 2010/11 sugar production is decreased 100,000 metric tons, raw value, based on indications that recent freeze damage reduced production potential. Exports are decreased 100,000 tons.

 

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2011 red meat and poultry production is raised from last month, reflecting increased production of beef, pork, broilers, and turkeys. Fed cattle slaughter will reflect expected strength in feedlot placements during early 2011 and relatively large dairy cow slaughter in the first part of 2011 will also contribute to higher beef production. However, the effects of increased cattle slaughter will be partly mitigated by lower expected carcass weights. Pork production is increased from last month as carcass weights thus far in the first quarter are well above last year. Broiler and turkey production is forecast higher in the first half of 2011. The broiler production increase largely reflects relatively heavy bird weights but the increase in turkey production forecast reflects higher increases in poult placements as well as increased bird weights. The egg production forecast is raised as the table egg type laying flock has been increasing. Estimates of 2010 poultry and egg production are adjusted to reflect data revisions.

The forecast for beef exports for 2011 is raised from last month on strength in exports to Asia. The beef import forecast is reduced as supplies in several exporting countries are expected to remain tight and a relatively weak U.S. dollar is expected to constrain shipments. The pork and poultry export forecasts for 2011 are unchanged from last month. Trade estimates for 2010 reflect import and export data for December.

Despite the higher production forecasts, prices for livestock and poultry are raised from last month. Robust exports and improving domestic demand in the face of relatively tight meat supplies are expected to support higher price forecasts for cattle, hogs, broilers, and turkeys. Egg prices in the first quarter are forecast lower due to recent price declines.

The milk production forecast for 2011 is reduced from last month. Relatively high milk prices and increased supplies of replacement heifers are expected to encourage further increases in the cow herd through much of the year, but the rate of increase in milk per cow is forecast slower than last month. Exports are forecast higher as global nonfat dry milk and cheese demand remains strong with tight supplies in competitor markets expected through the first half of 2011. Estimates of 2010 milk production are adjusted to reflect data revisions.

Dairy product prices are forecast higher this month on strong early year prices. Strong international demand and improving domestic demand will support prices for most products. Currently tight butter stocks are also helping support butter prices. Class III and Class IV price forecasts are raised to reflect higher product prices. The all milk price is forecast to average $18.10 to $18.70 per cwt for 2011.

COTTON: The U.S. 2010/11 cotton supply and demand estimates are unchanged from last month. The forecast range of 80 to 83 cents per pound for the average price received by producers is narrowed 1 cent on each end.

The world 2010/11 supply and demand estimates include marginally lower production and ending stocks relative to last month. World production is reduced 300,000 bales as decreases for India and China are mostly offset by increases for Australia and Brazil. World consumption is virtually unchanged. World trade is raised slightly, as lower production in China is expected to increase import demand.

RICE: No changes are made on the supply side of the U.S. 2010/11 rice supply and use balance sheet. On the use side, domestic and residual use and total exports are unchanged from a month ago; however, the rough rice export forecast is lowered 1.0 million cwt, which is offset by an increase in the combined milled and brown export forecast (rough-equivalent basis). Long-grain and combined medium- and short-grain rice exports are forecast at 78.0 million cwt and 38.0 million, respectively, unchanged from the previous month. All rice ending stocks are projected at 52.8 million cwt, unchanged from last month, and the largest stocks since 1985/86. Long-grain rice stocks are projected at 42.9 million cwt, and combined medium- and short-grain rice stocks at 8.4 million, both unchanged from a month ago. The 2010/11 average milling rate is revised to 67.75 percent, up 0.25 points from last month. The average milling rate is determined from updated Farm Service Agency warehouse stored loan data for long-, medium-, and short-grain rice.

The 2010/11 long-grain season-average price is projected at $11.05 to $11.55 per cwt, up 30 cents on each end of the range from last month. The combined medium- and short-grain price is projected at $16.25 to $16.75 per cwt, down 50 cents on each end of the range. The all rice season-average price is forecast at $12.25 to $12.75 per cwt, up 10 cents on both ends of the range. The price projections are based on the National Agricultural Statistics Service reported prices through mid-February and expected prices the remainder of the marketing year.

Global 2010/11 projections of rice production, consumption, and exports are lowered from a month ago, and ending stocks are raised. The decrease in the global production forecast, still a record at 451.5 million tons, is due entirely to a decrease in the rice crop in India, which is partially offset by increases for Argentina and Brazil. India’s rice crop is forecast at 94.5 million tons, down 500,000 tons from last month due to an expected decrease in average yield. Drier than normal weather in the eastern and northern rice growing regions is expected to lower Rabi yields. The increases in Argentina and Brazil are due to an expected increase in harvested area.

Global consumption is lowered 5.3 million tons to 447.0 million, still a record, primarily due to reductions in India (-4.0 million) and China (-0.5 million). Conversely, global ending stocks are raised 4.9 million tons to 98.8 million attributed mostly to increases for India, China, Bangladesh, and Burma. India’s 2010/11 ending stocks are raised 3.6 million tons to 21.6 million based on recently received information on government-held stocks. China’s 2010/11 ending stocks are raised nearly 1.0 million tons based on information from the Agricultural Counselor in Beijing. Global 2010/11 exports are lowered nearly 0.5 million tons, due mostly to reductions in Burma, China, and India.

 

Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?

The 7 markets now covered daily are Soybeans, Corn, Crude oil, S&P, 30 yr TBond, Gold, and Nat gas

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea ,Turkey  and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 8 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $ 199.00

The weekly service is "Monday only" and comes out usually by Saturday morning so you can prepare for Sunday night and Monday's trade.

Weekly Service: 13 weeks for $129 total subscription fee.

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

BT

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

May Soybean Daily numbers & trade Ideas for 3/7/11

Mar 08, 2011

top1

This report was sent to subscribers on 3/4/11 11:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 3/7/11. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

May Soybeans

After the close recap on 3/7/11: My resistance was 14.24 1/4, .05 1/4 from the actual high, and my support was 13.84 1/2, the EXACT actual low

Subscribe now! Do yourself a favor and get your numbers after the market is closed to be used for the next session trading. Ask yourself how much would it have been worth to read my comments and get my numbers 14 hours before today's open outcry?

Sign up For Free 1 Day Trail of Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas

Sign Up for Learn a better way to hedge for farmers

MAY Soybeans Numbers                    

14.24 ¼                            

--------------14.10                         Pivot

13.95 ¾  

13.84 ½

 

Trend       

5 day chart...       Up from last week same day                                                

Daily chart   ....  Sideways

Weekly chart ... Up

Monthly chart    Up           $11.70 is the 200 DMA

ATR 34                               EX. Overbought 91%

 

soybeans 3 7 11

For 3/7/11: I continue to say "Bracket line provides strong support, daily numbers resist. I continue to use the March chart to get my numbers, but I am using the May futures contract".     

In my daily soybean numbers on Friday; my resistance was .02 ¼ from the actual high; my pivot acted as support and was .06 ¼ from the actual low.   

My hedging strategies were such that has allowed for more upside and spending the least amount on the most important protection which is at the money while continuing to hedge as the market has gone up in 2011. I really would be fully hedged here, knowing I will participate on any rally knowing that at the strike price I select I get my crop back and can add profits to my original hedge price. But if they go down, I have a decent start at protecting my downside risk.    

3/7/11:

Grains: Spot on grain numbers. Now that analytical firms are raising their estimates about soybean crop production in SA, takes 1 of the supports away from the foundation. I consider the high made in May soybeans at $14.67 ½ takes into account what prices would be if that shortfall estimate at the time was realized. Now you can see why I said about the predictions of severe shortfalls as being "headline grabbers" by firms looking for attention. I also say this to remind you that the reporters who write stories of extreme conditions have nothing else of substance to write about. So take their plays on greed and fear lightly in your decision making. I will touch on extremes of chart support and resistance at times, but I always focus on the here and now. My price targets are always within reach and do not need an "event" to make the price obtainable.   

Soybeans and corn should find increasing resistance in current rallies because fundamentals have not changed in a way to warrant taking out previous highs in soybeans, and the corn resistance in the March contract at the gap of $7.46. On Thursday the USDA will come out with their revisions in supply/demand estimates, and upward revisions in SA production could trigger the next selling pressure for soybeans. On the other hand, their last estimate of 2011/2012 carryout stocks of 160 million bushels have little room to reduce their last estimate of 78 million acres that should go into production in 2011.

USDA's estimate of a corn carryout for 2011/2012 of 865 million bushels leaves little room for less than their forecast for 92 million acres to be planted this year. On the other hand there is a risk in buying December corn if we did get better than expected yields. Improving genetic seeds will increase yields greatly in the next 10 years, but every year improves going forward, but Mother Nature still has the final say. That is why you can talk all the fundamentals you want, but there are no certainties trading grains. My task as a trader is to execute trade ideas that are derived from the charts, and I know that all trades are not created equal, so the better the chart location, the more contracts I want to trade, and at all times have my risk defined (when the number does not hold). 

Corn looks like it needs to trade higher to curb consumption, but my chart resistance must be broken first. On Friday, March corn made a new high but closed lower which bodes well for another down day to follow on Monday. That exact signal occurred just 2 days before, but did not work. $7.31 to $7.46 remains my strong "selling zone" in March corn and the low on 2/23/11 should support any setback before the report on the 31st.

Both charts remain bullish, but soybeans closed Friday on a positive note, corn did not, but it was still friendly for the week. I want to day trade using the numbers but only taking the sell signals today, using a buy stop to protect. I am now using a $.05 buy stop in corn and a $.08 buy stop in soybeans to protect.  

New Subscribers:  Keep in mind that these are day trading numbers. They are equally to be used for swing trading and longer term trading time frames on the day I want to enter or exit my position. The charts are to be used for overall trade location looking for areas of price discovery of support and resistance levels. When the market does go to the charts longer term support or resistance levels such as bracket lines or longer term trend lines, I use my numbers on that day to enter or exit my position. The numbers do not tell you what to do, you are in control of that, but they will give you a framework to try and buy or sell at the best price for that day. For me it gives me a strategy and the best way I have found to discover the best price for entering or exiting my trade ideas.

If I have the exact numbers for the actual high and low of the day 12 hours in advance, the question has always been, how do I trade it? That is what I best describe in my numbers explanation. Any intuitiveness or nuances I trade, I would keep a journal to see if it is worthwhile overriding my plan. I rarely go against my explanation

Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?

The 7 markets now covered daily are Soybeans, Corn, Crude oil, S&P, 30 yr TBond, Gold, Nat gas and Cattle.

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea ,Turkey  and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 8 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $ 199.00

The weekly service is "Monday only" and comes out usually by Saturday morning so you can prepare for Sunday night and Monday's trade.

Weekly Service: 13 weeks for $129 total subscription fee.

 

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

  BT

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

 

 

Log In or Sign Up to comment

COMMENTS

Receive the latest news, information and commentary customized for you. Sign up to receive Beef Today's Cattle Drive today!. Interested in the latest prices for cattle in your area? See highlights of the latest for-sale cattle in the Cattle-Exchange eNewsletter.

Hot Links & Cool Tools

    •  
    •  
    •  
    •  
    •  
    •  
    •  

facebook twitter youtube View More>>
 
 
 
 
The Home Page of Agriculture
© 2014 Farm Journal, Inc. All Rights Reserved|Web site design and development by AmericanEagle.com|Site Map|Privacy Policy|Terms & Conditions